Presumably the new DPP would be looking at competing in Bishan Toa Payoh GRC in GE2016, but what kind of success can they have? They scored 43%, and that is with Mr Chiam See Tong at the helm. I just can't see them getting past stage 2, and it gets even harder for any new party that wants to join in the fun when there are no more 'spare constituencies' that they can slot in to.
My hope is that there will be a natural process of evolution. If KJ doesn't do well and RP implode, then that releases another 11 seats. I think KJ knows this is his last roll of the dice. NSP grabbed their seats when Goh Meng Seng was boss, so they might not do so well at the "land grab" meeting. Or maybe NSP might go for a different strategy this time and contest fewer seats (I think they should, because I think they overstretched in 2011). Parties come and parties go, so I'm not that pessimistic that there are no "spare constituencies". Assuming that LKY is still alive in 2016, then Tanjong Pagar can be seen as a "training ground", as is Ang Mo Kio. Marine Parade is no longer a stronghold because Goh Chok Tong is no longer a big name.
The problem for the PAP is that a lot of the old cabinet stepped down, so all the GRCs are anchored by new names. Bishan Toa Payoh people thought in 2011 that they're voting out Wong Kan Seng. But then he left anyway. So that GRC becomes anchored by Ng Eng Hen in 2016. Is he easier to remove? We'll see. There's a pattern here: if you see one sitting cabinet minister and one potential minister fielded in the same GRC on the PAP side, it's a sign that the sitting one will be moving out.
And to repeat what I've said before, if people get pissed off enough with the PAP, they'll vote opposition, just as long as the opposition guys aren't obviously idiots.