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印度宣布大選起跑、9億選民參與 莫迪連任路荊棘滿佈
上報
2.8k 人追蹤
麥浩禮
2019年3月11日 下午1:33
印度選舉委員會宣布，2019年第17屆印度選舉將在4月11日至5月23日，全國29個邦及7個聯邦屬地進行投票，參與選民共計9億。
這次選舉可說是選民對上屆大勝的印度人民黨（Bharatiya Janata Party）打成績，除了各地候選人密鑼緊鼓競選外，作為全世界最大型的民主選舉，國際對印度選舉有密切關注，這位在位5年，競逐連任的總理莫迪（Narendra Modi）能否繼續成為印度最高權力掌控人？
這次印度選舉在選什麼？
印度每隔5年進行換屆選舉，選民需要在所在的36個行政區中投下神聖一票，以一人一票的方式直接選出被稱為人民院的印度下議院中543席，而另外2席則由無實權的印度總統委任。
由於投票人數實在太多，2014年印度選舉需分成9個階段，從4月7日至5月12日，為世界歷時最長的選舉。
作為英國前殖民地，印度承襲英國選舉制度，總理一職由贏得議席的最大多數黨，推舉黨領袖出任總理一職。
上屆選情如何？
印度長年由兩大政黨，人民黨與國民大會黨（Indian National Congress）爭奪話語權，2014年印度選舉，莫迪領導的人民黨以壓倒性姿態擊敗國大黨，更一舉掃下282席，比2009年大舉進帳166席，打破30年來印度單一政黨拿取最多議席的紀錄，國大黨則滑鐵盧大失162席，僅守著44席。
但2019年的選舉，人民黨能否繼續持續這份優勢再下一城，將相當具挑戰性。
巴國衝突成選戰前哨戰？
近日發生與巴基斯坦在喀什米爾地區出現空中衝突，兩國領導人雖然實質上有意壓制防止緊張局勢升級，不過造成兩國的「口水戰」則沒有減弱。印度與巴基斯坦均狂事件上採取強硬立場，印度指責巴國無法阻止境內恐怖分子，令他們有機可乘襲擊印度。
雖然基地處於巴基斯坦一方的穆罕穆德軍（Jaish e Mohammed）已對普爾瓦馬（Pulwama）2月14日針對警察的自殺炸彈襲擊件一事承認責任，不過新德里方面認為巴基斯坦有份參與襲擊，更聲稱成功對穆罕穆德軍山區訓練營進行空襲，但過後巴基斯坦方面卻疑似派出F-16衝落2架印度米格21戰機，更生擒機師，而印度則批評巴國涉違反美國定出，F-16僅可作打擊恐怖分子的使用條件，兩國打完空戰後，卻出現了雙方各執一詞的「羅生門」。
不過，莫迪從炸彈事件中要「復仇」，到空襲事件過後的強硬表態，分析指是為了在臨近選舉的這段時期造勢，務求激發國內的民族主義情緒，有利意識型態屬民族主義的人民黨的選情。
莫迪連任隱憂是什麼？
喀什米爾的衝突雖然演變成「羅生門」，更甚出現印度當局懷疑對人民在實際情況上撒謊，然而與印巴兩國的各說各話的情況下，印度民眾未有受事件影響，有分析指更會令莫迪得到額外5％的支持度。然而，雖然人民黨在民族主義出牌時機夠好，但印度民眾實質對莫迪這5年治理卻是好壞參半。
2014年莫迪成為總理後，矢言對印度經濟進行徹底性的改革，並承諾就任後將為年輕人開創更多就業機會。作為超過一個人口逾13億的大國，單是每年成年投入勞動市場的年輕人便多達1200萬人，讓年輕人找到工作可謂印度重中之中的議題。雖然印度國內生產毛額（GDP)從2016年起連續上升，聯合國更估計2019年高達7.6%比中國更強。
不過據孟買的智庫印度經濟監測中心（CMIE）指出，2019年2月全國失業率攀升至7.2%，年輕人就業不足情況愈來愈惡化，而且更是失業問題更多落在北方邦等人民黨「票倉」。另一方面，莫迪的經濟改革造成反彈，傷害了本應收入不多，2.36億名農民的生計。
而莫迪採取食品低價、壓低農作物銷售價格，同時抗通脹的經濟策略，雖然令民眾開支不會增加，但對農民卻是苦不堪言。2018年11月成千上萬的農民近日湧到新德里示威，要求政府對農業提出援助，一些農民更帶著一些頭骨及照片，稱不少農民由於太過貧窮進而走上不歸路了結生命。
農民直言「政府沒有餵飽我們的農民，十分可恥」，要求政府對農民免除債務，並對農作物訂立最低價格保證。
雖然莫迪在2019年2月宣布提高農民收入，宣布農民每年可獲85美元的補助，同時給向中產階層「派糖」，從3500美元以下的民眾不需繳納任何所得稅的舊制度界線，推高一倍至7000美元，希望中產與基層也同時受惠嚐到甜頭。不過選民是否賣帳，仍然是未知之數。
國大黨能否逆襲收回失地？
而對於國大黨這間「百年老店」而言，2014年選舉結果可說是無比屈辱，2017年，前印度總理拉吉夫甘地（Rajiv Gandhi）之子拉胡爾（Rahul Gandhi）當選國大黨主席，集中火力攻擊莫迪的經濟政策，並提出若然當選將對農民提供基本最低收入保障。
2018年12月，國大黨在具指標性的邦民意調查中，在某些邦中贏得多數議席收復失地，就算最終不能令拉胡爾奪取總理大位，也能令國大黨從谷低翻生，在國會中重新掌握部分話語權。
更多上報內容：
印巴空戰竟成互噴口水 揭密一場各取所需的衝突
《大家論壇》印度視角：莫迪用納稅人錢 向自殺邊緣的農民買票
【挑戰莫迪】印度甘地家族再戰大選 47歲普里揚卡成黨內最閃耀新星
India announced the start of the election and the participation of 900 million voters. Modi re-elected the road.
Report
2.8k person tracking
Mai Haoli
March 11, 2019 1:33 PM
The Indian Election Commission announced that the 17th Indian election in 2019 will be held from April 11 to May 23, and 29 states and seven federal territories will vote in the country, involving a total of 900 million voters.
This election can be said that voters voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which was the last big victory. In addition to the close competition of candidates from all over the world, as the world’s largest democratic election, the international community has paid close attention to Indian elections. Can the prime minister, Narendra Modi, who has been re-elected for five years, continue to be the highest power in India?
What is the election for this Indian election?
In India, elections are held every five years. Voters need to cast a sacred vote in the 36 administrative districts, and directly select 543 seats in the Indian House of Commons, known as the People’s House, by one person, one vote, while the other two are Appointed by the Indian President without real power.
Due to the high number of voters, the 2014 Indian elections are divided into nine phases, from April 7 to May 12, which is the longest election in the world.
India gets set for world’s biggest election. @hcregan, @nkreports and @Manveena report. https://t.co/mvGBIOkAW5
— CNN Asia Pacific (@cnnasiapr) March 11, 2019
The People’s Court and the so-called (Lok Sabha), and the House of Representatives (Rajya Sabha), which is a member of the House of Lords, resisted the court, but apart from the fact that the People’s House has the financial budget, there is a disagreement between the People’s Court and the Federal Institute. The two chambers were held, but since the number of members of the People’s Court is nearly twice as large as that of the Federal Institute, the People’s Court is actually the highest legislative authority.
As a former British colony, India inherited the British electoral system. The Prime Minister was the most elected party to win the seats, and elected the leader of the party to serve as the prime minister.
What was the last election?
India has been vying for the right to speak for two years by the two major political parties, the People’s Party and the Indian National Congress. In India’s election in 2014, Modi’s People’s Party defeated the Congress Party in an overwhelming manner, and even swept 282 seats. In 2009, he made a large 166 seats, breaking the record of the largest single party in India in 30 years. The National Congress Party lost 162 seats in Waterloo and only guarded 44 seats.
But in the 2019 election, whether the People’s Party can continue this advantage and then go to the next city will be quite challenging.
Is the conflict in Pakistan a pre-war battle?
Recently, there have been air conflicts with Pakistan in the Kashmir region. Although the leaders of the two countries have intended to suppress the escalation of tensions, the "salvation war" between the two countries has not weakened. Both India and Pakistan took a tough stance on the maddening incident. India accused the Pakistani state of being unable to stop domestic terrorists and giving them the opportunity to attack India.
Although Jaish e Mohammed, who is based on the Pakistani side, has already admitted responsibility for the suicide bombing of the police on February 14 in Pulvama, New Delhi believes that Pakistan has participated in the attack and claimed Successfully carried out air strikes against the Muhammad military mountain training camp, but afterwards, the Pakistani side suspected that the F-16 had sent down two Indian MiG-21 fighters, which was even more awkward, while India criticized the Pakistani country for violating the United States. -16 can only be used to combat the use of terrorists. After the air battles between the two countries, there has been a "Rashomon" with the words of the two sides.
However, Modi’s "revenge" from the bomb incident, to the tough stance after the air raid incident, is to analyze the situation in the period leading up to the election, in order to stimulate domestic nationalism, and the ideology is nationalistic. The election of the People’s Party.
What is Modi’s re-election worry?
Although the conflict in Kashmir has evolved into a "Rashomon", it is even more difficult for the Indian authorities to lie about the facts of the people. However, with the various words of India and Pakistan, the Indian people have not been affected by the incident. It will give Modi an extra 5% support. However, although the People’s Party has a good time to play nationalism, the Indian people have been mixed with Modi’s five-year governance.
After Modi became prime minister in 2014, he vowed to thoroughly reform the Indian economy and promised to create more employment opportunities for young people after taking office. As a big country with more than 1.3 billion people, the number of young people who enter the labor market every year is as many as 12 million. It is an issue in India that makes young people find jobs. Although India's domestic gross domestic product (GDP) has risen continuously since 2016, the United Nations estimates that as much as 7.6% in 2019 is stronger than China.
However, according to Mumbai's think tank India Economic Monitoring Center (CMIE), the national unemployment rate climbed to 7.2% in February 2019, the underemployment of young people is getting worse and worse, and even more unemployment problems are in the People's Party of Uttar Pradesh. "Ticket". On the other hand, Modi’s economic reforms caused a rebound, hurting the livelihood of 236 million farmers.
Moody's economic strategy of low food prices, lowering the sales price of crops, and anti-inflation, although the public spending will not increase, but it is miserable for farmers. In November 2018, tens of thousands of peasants flocked to New Delhi to protest and asked the government to provide assistance to agriculture. Some peasants also carried some skulls and photographs, saying that many peasants were too poor to go home and return to life.
The peasant bluntly said that "the government did not feed our farmers, it is very shameful", asking the government to exempt the farmers from debt and set a minimum price guarantee for the crops.
Although Modi announced in February 2019 that he would increase the income of farmers, he announced that farmers can receive a subsidy of 85 US dollars per year, while giving the middle class “sweet sugar”, and the people below $3,500 do not need to pay any old income tax system. It is twice as high as 7,000 US dollars. I hope that the middle class and the grassroots will also benefit from the sweetness. However, whether voters sell their accounts is still unknown.
Can the Congress Party counterattack to recover lost ground?
For the "100-year-old shop" of the Congress Party, the results of the 2014 elections can be said to be extremely humiliating. In 2017, Rahul Gandhi, the son of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, was elected as the Congress Party. The chairman concentrated on the firepower attack on Modi’s economic policy and proposed that if elected, it would provide farmers with basic minimum income guarantees.
In December 2018, the Congress Party won the majority of seats in some states to recover lost ground in some state-owned public opinion surveys. Even if it does not allow Rahul to win the prime minister's position, it can make the Congress Party low. Turn over and regain some of the right to speak in Congress.
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印度宣布大選起跑、9億選民參與 莫迪連任路荊棘滿佈
上報
2.8k 人追蹤
麥浩禮
2019年3月11日 下午1:33
印度選舉委員會宣布，2019年第17屆印度選舉將在4月11日至5月23日，全國29個邦及7個聯邦屬地進行投票，參與選民共計9億。
這次選舉可說是選民對上屆大勝的印度人民黨（Bharatiya Janata Party）打成績，除了各地候選人密鑼緊鼓競選外，作為全世界最大型的民主選舉，國際對印度選舉有密切關注，這位在位5年，競逐連任的總理莫迪（Narendra Modi）能否繼續成為印度最高權力掌控人？
這次印度選舉在選什麼？
印度每隔5年進行換屆選舉，選民需要在所在的36個行政區中投下神聖一票，以一人一票的方式直接選出被稱為人民院的印度下議院中543席，而另外2席則由無實權的印度總統委任。
由於投票人數實在太多，2014年印度選舉需分成9個階段，從4月7日至5月12日，為世界歷時最長的選舉。
India gets set for world’s biggest election. @hcregan, @nkreports and @Manveena report. https://t.co/mvGBIOkAW5
— CNN Asia Pacific (@cnnasiapr) March 11, 2019
人民院與稱為（Lok Sabha），與屬上議院性實的聯邦院（Rajya Sabha）分庭抗禮，不過除了人民院擁有財政預算有話事權外，當人民院與聯邦院在立法上出現分歧，可進行兩院開會，但由於人民院議員人數比聯邦院多近2倍，故人民院實際上屬最高立法權力機關。作為英國前殖民地，印度承襲英國選舉制度，總理一職由贏得議席的最大多數黨，推舉黨領袖出任總理一職。
上屆選情如何？
印度長年由兩大政黨，人民黨與國民大會黨（Indian National Congress）爭奪話語權，2014年印度選舉，莫迪領導的人民黨以壓倒性姿態擊敗國大黨，更一舉掃下282席，比2009年大舉進帳166席，打破30年來印度單一政黨拿取最多議席的紀錄，國大黨則滑鐵盧大失162席，僅守著44席。
但2019年的選舉，人民黨能否繼續持續這份優勢再下一城，將相當具挑戰性。
巴國衝突成選戰前哨戰？
近日發生與巴基斯坦在喀什米爾地區出現空中衝突，兩國領導人雖然實質上有意壓制防止緊張局勢升級，不過造成兩國的「口水戰」則沒有減弱。印度與巴基斯坦均狂事件上採取強硬立場，印度指責巴國無法阻止境內恐怖分子，令他們有機可乘襲擊印度。
雖然基地處於巴基斯坦一方的穆罕穆德軍（Jaish e Mohammed）已對普爾瓦馬（Pulwama）2月14日針對警察的自殺炸彈襲擊件一事承認責任，不過新德里方面認為巴基斯坦有份參與襲擊，更聲稱成功對穆罕穆德軍山區訓練營進行空襲，但過後巴基斯坦方面卻疑似派出F-16衝落2架印度米格21戰機，更生擒機師，而印度則批評巴國涉違反美國定出，F-16僅可作打擊恐怖分子的使用條件，兩國打完空戰後，卻出現了雙方各執一詞的「羅生門」。
不過，莫迪從炸彈事件中要「復仇」，到空襲事件過後的強硬表態，分析指是為了在臨近選舉的這段時期造勢，務求激發國內的民族主義情緒，有利意識型態屬民族主義的人民黨的選情。
莫迪連任隱憂是什麼？
喀什米爾的衝突雖然演變成「羅生門」，更甚出現印度當局懷疑對人民在實際情況上撒謊，然而與印巴兩國的各說各話的情況下，印度民眾未有受事件影響，有分析指更會令莫迪得到額外5％的支持度。然而，雖然人民黨在民族主義出牌時機夠好，但印度民眾實質對莫迪這5年治理卻是好壞參半。
2014年莫迪成為總理後，矢言對印度經濟進行徹底性的改革，並承諾就任後將為年輕人開創更多就業機會。作為超過一個人口逾13億的大國，單是每年成年投入勞動市場的年輕人便多達1200萬人，讓年輕人找到工作可謂印度重中之中的議題。雖然印度國內生產毛額（GDP)從2016年起連續上升，聯合國更估計2019年高達7.6%比中國更強。
不過據孟買的智庫印度經濟監測中心（CMIE）指出，2019年2月全國失業率攀升至7.2%，年輕人就業不足情況愈來愈惡化，而且更是失業問題更多落在北方邦等人民黨「票倉」。另一方面，莫迪的經濟改革造成反彈，傷害了本應收入不多，2.36億名農民的生計。
而莫迪採取食品低價、壓低農作物銷售價格，同時抗通脹的經濟策略，雖然令民眾開支不會增加，但對農民卻是苦不堪言。2018年11月成千上萬的農民近日湧到新德里示威，要求政府對農業提出援助，一些農民更帶著一些頭骨及照片，稱不少農民由於太過貧窮進而走上不歸路了結生命。
農民直言「政府沒有餵飽我們的農民，十分可恥」，要求政府對農民免除債務，並對農作物訂立最低價格保證。
雖然莫迪在2019年2月宣布提高農民收入，宣布農民每年可獲85美元的補助，同時給向中產階層「派糖」，從3500美元以下的民眾不需繳納任何所得稅的舊制度界線，推高一倍至7000美元，希望中產與基層也同時受惠嚐到甜頭。不過選民是否賣帳，仍然是未知之數。
國大黨能否逆襲收回失地？
而對於國大黨這間「百年老店」而言，2014年選舉結果可說是無比屈辱，2017年，前印度總理拉吉夫甘地（Rajiv Gandhi）之子拉胡爾（Rahul Gandhi）當選國大黨主席，集中火力攻擊莫迪的經濟政策，並提出若然當選將對農民提供基本最低收入保障。
2018年12月，國大黨在具指標性的邦民意調查中，在某些邦中贏得多數議席收復失地，就算最終不能令拉胡爾奪取總理大位，也能令國大黨從谷低翻生，在國會中重新掌握部分話語權。
更多上報內容：
印巴空戰竟成互噴口水 揭密一場各取所需的衝突
《大家論壇》印度視角：莫迪用納稅人錢 向自殺邊緣的農民買票
【挑戰莫迪】印度甘地家族再戰大選 47歲普里揚卡成黨內最閃耀新星
India announced the start of the election and the participation of 900 million voters. Modi re-elected the road.
Report
2.8k person tracking
Mai Haoli
March 11, 2019 1:33 PM
The Indian Election Commission announced that the 17th Indian election in 2019 will be held from April 11 to May 23, and 29 states and seven federal territories will vote in the country, involving a total of 900 million voters.
This election can be said that voters voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party, which was the last big victory. In addition to the close competition of candidates from all over the world, as the world’s largest democratic election, the international community has paid close attention to Indian elections. Can the prime minister, Narendra Modi, who has been re-elected for five years, continue to be the highest power in India?
What is the election for this Indian election?
In India, elections are held every five years. Voters need to cast a sacred vote in the 36 administrative districts, and directly select 543 seats in the Indian House of Commons, known as the People’s House, by one person, one vote, while the other two are Appointed by the Indian President without real power.
Due to the high number of voters, the 2014 Indian elections are divided into nine phases, from April 7 to May 12, which is the longest election in the world.
India gets set for world’s biggest election. @hcregan, @nkreports and @Manveena report. https://t.co/mvGBIOkAW5
— CNN Asia Pacific (@cnnasiapr) March 11, 2019
The People’s Court and the so-called (Lok Sabha), and the House of Representatives (Rajya Sabha), which is a member of the House of Lords, resisted the court, but apart from the fact that the People’s House has the financial budget, there is a disagreement between the People’s Court and the Federal Institute. The two chambers were held, but since the number of members of the People’s Court is nearly twice as large as that of the Federal Institute, the People’s Court is actually the highest legislative authority.
As a former British colony, India inherited the British electoral system. The Prime Minister was the most elected party to win the seats, and elected the leader of the party to serve as the prime minister.
What was the last election?
India has been vying for the right to speak for two years by the two major political parties, the People’s Party and the Indian National Congress. In India’s election in 2014, Modi’s People’s Party defeated the Congress Party in an overwhelming manner, and even swept 282 seats. In 2009, he made a large 166 seats, breaking the record of the largest single party in India in 30 years. The National Congress Party lost 162 seats in Waterloo and only guarded 44 seats.
But in the 2019 election, whether the People’s Party can continue this advantage and then go to the next city will be quite challenging.
Is the conflict in Pakistan a pre-war battle?
Recently, there have been air conflicts with Pakistan in the Kashmir region. Although the leaders of the two countries have intended to suppress the escalation of tensions, the "salvation war" between the two countries has not weakened. Both India and Pakistan took a tough stance on the maddening incident. India accused the Pakistani state of being unable to stop domestic terrorists and giving them the opportunity to attack India.
Although Jaish e Mohammed, who is based on the Pakistani side, has already admitted responsibility for the suicide bombing of the police on February 14 in Pulvama, New Delhi believes that Pakistan has participated in the attack and claimed Successfully carried out air strikes against the Muhammad military mountain training camp, but afterwards, the Pakistani side suspected that the F-16 had sent down two Indian MiG-21 fighters, which was even more awkward, while India criticized the Pakistani country for violating the United States. -16 can only be used to combat the use of terrorists. After the air battles between the two countries, there has been a "Rashomon" with the words of the two sides.
However, Modi’s "revenge" from the bomb incident, to the tough stance after the air raid incident, is to analyze the situation in the period leading up to the election, in order to stimulate domestic nationalism, and the ideology is nationalistic. The election of the People’s Party.
What is Modi’s re-election worry?
Although the conflict in Kashmir has evolved into a "Rashomon", it is even more difficult for the Indian authorities to lie about the facts of the people. However, with the various words of India and Pakistan, the Indian people have not been affected by the incident. It will give Modi an extra 5% support. However, although the People’s Party has a good time to play nationalism, the Indian people have been mixed with Modi’s five-year governance.
After Modi became prime minister in 2014, he vowed to thoroughly reform the Indian economy and promised to create more employment opportunities for young people after taking office. As a big country with more than 1.3 billion people, the number of young people who enter the labor market every year is as many as 12 million. It is an issue in India that makes young people find jobs. Although India's domestic gross domestic product (GDP) has risen continuously since 2016, the United Nations estimates that as much as 7.6% in 2019 is stronger than China.
However, according to Mumbai's think tank India Economic Monitoring Center (CMIE), the national unemployment rate climbed to 7.2% in February 2019, the underemployment of young people is getting worse and worse, and even more unemployment problems are in the People's Party of Uttar Pradesh. "Ticket". On the other hand, Modi’s economic reforms caused a rebound, hurting the livelihood of 236 million farmers.
Moody's economic strategy of low food prices, lowering the sales price of crops, and anti-inflation, although the public spending will not increase, but it is miserable for farmers. In November 2018, tens of thousands of peasants flocked to New Delhi to protest and asked the government to provide assistance to agriculture. Some peasants also carried some skulls and photographs, saying that many peasants were too poor to go home and return to life.
The peasant bluntly said that "the government did not feed our farmers, it is very shameful", asking the government to exempt the farmers from debt and set a minimum price guarantee for the crops.
Although Modi announced in February 2019 that he would increase the income of farmers, he announced that farmers can receive a subsidy of 85 US dollars per year, while giving the middle class “sweet sugar”, and the people below $3,500 do not need to pay any old income tax system. It is twice as high as 7,000 US dollars. I hope that the middle class and the grassroots will also benefit from the sweetness. However, whether voters sell their accounts is still unknown.
Can the Congress Party counterattack to recover lost ground?
For the "100-year-old shop" of the Congress Party, the results of the 2014 elections can be said to be extremely humiliating. In 2017, Rahul Gandhi, the son of former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, was elected as the Congress Party. The chairman concentrated on the firepower attack on Modi’s economic policy and proposed that if elected, it would provide farmers with basic minimum income guarantees.
In December 2018, the Congress Party won the majority of seats in some states to recover lost ground in some state-owned public opinion surveys. Even if it does not allow Rahul to win the prime minister's position, it can make the Congress Party low. Turn over and regain some of the right to speak in Congress.
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