We asked traders about the future of equities

could greece be the trigger?


http://www.futuresmag.com/2015/06/24/we-asked-traders-about-future-equities?page=5

I expect the market to have an important correction in the next 12 months. In fact, a 7-year cycle is coming due within 3 months. Out of the last twelve 7-year cycles 9 of them have had corrections, 6 of the 12 very serious corrections. So that means we have a 75% probability of the 7-year cycle holding based on data back to the Great Depression. In her remarks Janet Yellen told us the economy hit a 'soft patch' earlier this year.

There is no such thing as a soft patch. Its a term used by economists to project the last 12 months on the next 12 months. The last time a high profile person like Yellen used this term was 2011 a handful of months before the debt ceiling debacle, MF Global scandal and the Euro disaster.

dancingshoes said:

could greece be the trigger?


http://www.futuresmag.com/2015/06/24/we-asked-traders-about-future-equities?page=5

I expect the market to have an important correction in the next 12 months. In fact, a 7-year cycle is coming due within 3 months. Out of the last twelve 7-year cycles 9 of them have had corrections, 6 of the 12 very serious corrections. So that means we have a 75% probability of the 7-year cycle holding based on data back to the Great Depression. In her remarks Janet Yellen told us the economy hit a 'soft patch' earlier this year.

There is no such thing as a soft patch. Its a term used by economists to project the last 12 months on the next 12 months. The last time a high profile person like Yellen used this term was 2011 a handful of months before the debt ceiling debacle, MF Global scandal and the Euro disaster.

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hahahha. no need to ask traders. 2 years ago I predicted the greek economy and with it protugal, spain and soon whole of europe would collapsed this year. Only the 3 stooges in this forums were heckling and making fun of me. I am having the last laugh. expect STI to drop further and the 3 stooges to cry mother nad father and panic like hell. heard banks board interest rates going to jump up very soon. starting in europe and then US then sinkieland etc . feels damn good to be spot on. hahahhahahahh

sometimes, it is not about being right, it's more about how much money you can make than losing it.:p

numero uno said:

hahahha. no need to ask traders. 2 years ago I predicted the greek economy and with it protugal, spain and soon whole of europe would collapsed this year. Only the 3 stooges in this forums were heckling and making fun of me. I am having the last laugh. expect STI to drop further and the 3 stooges to cry mother nad father and panic like hell. heard banks board interest rates going to jump up very soon. starting in europe and then US then sinkieland etc . feels damn good to be spot on. hahahhahahahh

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dancingshoes said:

sometimes, it is not about being right, it's more about how much money you can make than losing it.:p

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precisely!!!! If you look at my posts, I have told them to short the market this year but they laughed and heckled. that's why I told the 3 stooges(narong, xebay and sggonewrong) to eat their heart out as i am laughing now( to the bank). enough said.

Yes. I see the seven year cycle in Leongsam's backyard. The one without the seat.

yups, NZ going to cut interest rate again. NZD$0.91 to SGD$1.00

mojito said:

Yes. I see the seven year cycle in Leongsam's backyard. The one without the seat.

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We asked traders to dance in their shoes

dancingshoes said:

could greece be the trigger?


http://www.futuresmag.com/2015/06/24/we-asked-traders-about-future-equities?page=5

I expect the market to have an important correction in the next 12 months. In fact, a 7-year cycle is coming due within 3 months. Out of the last twelve 7-year cycles 9 of them have had corrections, 6 of the 12 very serious corrections. So that means we have a 75% probability of the 7-year cycle holding based on data back to the Great Depression. In her remarks Janet Yellen told us the economy hit a 'soft patch' earlier this year.

There is no such thing as a soft patch. Its a term used by economists to project the last 12 months on the next 12 months. The last time a high profile person like Yellen used this term was 2011 a handful of months before the debt ceiling debacle, MF Global scandal and the Euro disaster.

Click to expand...

I guess it all depends on how the Greeks play it. If they grovel before the EU after losing their stareoff, we might still have a couple more months before the next major political/economical/corporate flashpoint. That said, the SG economy have already been stagnating for the past half year or so, with the current property market & business owners in general seeing a slight dip in business. And the government should know better by now than to reopen the floodgates so soon, let's just say that too many too fast leads to a lack of integration, coupled with the lack of infrastructure, is a disaster waiting to happen like the little india riots.

I suspect New Zealand also got some problem.

Dunno why the NZD dropped 15% against SGD in the last 12-months.
Good timing to go there for holidays.

i am betting on a grexit, euro trying to stop fed from raising rate. they hope that with grexit, they can impact the the US economy which i think it will. but come to say that the 0.25bps interest rate is considered very little. even americans do not wish the rate to be raised, they are planning job cuts on the way. however, if fed don't raise, they may have further problem dealing with inflation later on. so it's all dilemma!

Poomer said:

I guess it all depends on how the Greeks play it. If they grovel before the EU after losing their stareoff, we might still have a couple more months before the next major political/economical/corporate flashpoint. That said, the SG economy have already been stagnating for the past half year or so, with the current property market & business owners in general seeing a slight dip in business. And the government should know better by now than to reopen the floodgates so soon, let's just say that too many too fast leads to a lack of integration, coupled with the lack of infrastructure, is a disaster waiting to happen like the little india riots.

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Runifyouhaveto said:

I suspect New Zealand also got some problem.

Dunno why the NZD dropped 15% against SGD in the last 12-months.
Good timing to go there for holidays.

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now, it's NZD$0.90 to SGD$1.00, their dairy auction held every month has a not so good export data last month.

Based on STI and our bank interests rates, can we foresee that the financial market will not be doing so well for the next 6 months to come?

Dark Knight said:

Based on STI and our bank interests rates, can we foresee that the financial market will not be doing so well for the next 6 months to come?

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Malaysia's economy crashed - export down 9%
Indonesia's economy crashed - GDP down 4.7%
China's economy crash - nobody is serious about working, buy shares better, even terry gou also give up.
So by right, many singapore companies will be in trouble, local banks are reducing OD facilities for weaker companies.

So if China is willing to continue easing like crazy, and cuts rates like Australia, we still can buy time
and offload to preserve some of our wealth.

talking about china, i have a friend who owns a few textile factories, he relocated the factories back to malaysia in the past 2 years. china has slowed down quite a bit cos' of their growing costs, of all i missed the PRC mei mei...the most.


Most Singapore firms looking to exit China on back of slowing growth, rising costs

64% have already moved their Asia headquarters.
Approximately half of the Singapore CFOs said they were considering a change in theirChina strategies, the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2015 CFO Outlook Asia survey showed.
Of those, 64 percent said they had already moved their Asian headquarters out of China to another country in Asia in the past year, while 80 percent are contemplating moving at least part of their operations out of China in the coming year.
Both of these figures are among the highest in the region.
In terms of foreign exchange, 77 percent of Singapore CFOs aid they have exposure to the China renminbi (RMB) than any other currency.
This compares to the regional average of CFOs with exposure to the RMB of 37 percent. Thirty-seven percent of Singapore CFOs said their RMB exposure was hedged.

“Singapore companies have significant businesses and investments in China,” added Seow. “Historically, there is a positive long-term view on the strength of the RMB, but as we can see from this survey, Singapore and the rest of ASEAN are becoming increasingly intertwined with what happens in China.”

from the chart, STI seems to be ranging around 3000 area, but i am not sure if many are borrowing to buy stocks, there will be another interest hike if fed does so.

http://www.straitstimes.com/busines...ngapore-will-rise-in-tandem-with-us-rates-mas

Dark Knight said:

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Based on STI and our bank interests rates, can we foresee that the financial market will not be doing so well for the next 6 months to come?

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dancingshoes said:

of all i missed the PRC mei mei...the most.

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Your TMC milf left u?

dancingshoes said:

of all i missed the PRC mei mei...the most.

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why bro?
Your TCM milf left u?

the other way round, i got tired of her.

Runifyouhaveto said:

Your TMC milf left u?

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dancingshoes said:

the other way round, i got tired of her.

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her dotter also liked u right?

Runifyouhaveto said:

her dotter also liked u right?

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haha...bro...i like her daughter, she is fresher veg. to me.