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Singapore follows a 20-year cycle. Your thoughts please

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Singapore seems to follow a 20-year cycle. Our status as a sovereign nation which we first achieved on 31 Aug 1963 (via unilateral declaration of independence) marked the beginning of the first cycle which saw phenomenal industrial growth, and the forming of a coherent multi-cultural identity (not to be confused with an overall national identity or what it means to be Singaporean per se).

The second cycle began with the deep recession of the mid '80s, after which government policies moved from being people-oriented to being business-oriented and citizens starting to become economic digits. During the second cycle, wages were suppressed, CPF contributions were slashed, the asset enhancement framework for property drove prices up, and that was also the period when Singaporeans started to develop the famous kiasu-kiasi-kiachenghu mentality.

The third cycle began with the election of LHL as PM and that was when SG started opening the floodgates to foreigners which in turn caused all the problems we see today ranging from overburdening of infrastructure to underemployment of PMETs to declining service standards and declining overall quality of life.

The fourth cycle I suspect will begin around the 2020s.

As usual, the start of a new cycle will be defined by our country having to face a major political or socio-economic problem. The first cycle started with our having to deal with merger, independence as well as the communists. The second cycle started with our having to deal with deep recession caused by the excesses of the previous cycle. The 3rd cycle started with the successful end of SARS and overcoming of the economic recession as a result of the 9/11 terror attacks and the dot-com bust.


And it will be the tackling of this national crisis that will cause major shifts in govt policy as well as the tenor of the country as a whole.

The start of the 4th cycle will be defined by having to deal with the excesses and problems created by the 3rd cycle. This time, the FT issue will be the key issue.
 

Leongsam

High Order Twit / Low SES subject
Admin
Asset
It's hard to comment on such a profound analysis. I don't know what to say.
 

mojito

Alfrescian
Loyal
I can't believe you are comparing Loong's reign of terror to singapore's early days of industrialization.
 

Poomer

Alfrescian
Loyal
Singapore seems to follow a 20-year cycle. Our status as a sovereign nation which we first achieved on 31 Aug 1963 (via unilateral declaration of independence) marked the beginning of the first cycle which saw phenomenal industrial growth, and the forming of a coherent multi-cultural identity (not to be confused with an overall national identity or what it means to be Singaporean per se).

The second cycle began with the deep recession of the mid '80s, after which government policies moved from being people-oriented to being business-oriented and citizens starting to become economic digits. During the second cycle, wages were suppressed, CPF contributions were slashed, the asset enhancement framework for property drove prices up, and that was also the period when Singaporeans started to develop the famous kiasu-kiasi-kiachenghu mentality.

The third cycle began with the election of LHL as PM and that was when SG started opening the floodgates to foreigners which in turn caused all the problems we see today ranging from overburdening of infrastructure to underemployment of PMETs to declining service standards and declining overall quality of life.

The fourth cycle I suspect will begin around the 2020s.

As usual, the start of a new cycle will be defined by our country having to face a major political or socio-economic problem. The first cycle started with our having to deal with merger, independence as well as the communists. The second cycle started with our having to deal with deep recession caused by the excesses of the previous cycle. The 3rd cycle started with the successful end of SARS and overcoming of the economic recession as a result of the 9/11 terror attacks and the dot-com bust.


And it will be the tackling of this national crisis that will cause major shifts in govt policy as well as the tenor of the country as a whole.

The start of the 4th cycle will be defined by having to deal with the excesses and problems created by the 3rd cycle. This time, the FT issue will be the key issue.

Highly possible the 4th cycle won't have PAP at the helm, and the next ruling party will have a nightmare dealing with the after effects of the 3rd cycle, ala Obama's administration dealing with Bush's problems.
 

akasha

Alfrescian
Loyal
Fuck your cycle.

No fucking cycle but when will that old bastard LKY start to sleep in his coffin.
Then this cycle will end and so will his entire dynasty of crooks and swindlers.
Down to their spawns as well.

And our deliverance will be at hand.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Highly possible the 4th cycle won't have PAP at the helm, and the next ruling party will have a nightmare dealing with the after effects of the 3rd cycle, ala Obama's administration dealing with Bush's problems.


Singaporeans seem to have this fixation that the opposition does not have experience to govern Singapore. They forget that when the PAP took power in 1959 it was comprised of people with no nation building experience. What the PAP had was a few good leaders with the ability to mobilize talent. Foresight was also part of their core strengths. Low Thia Khiang himself may not have this level of ability, but by 2021, I think we have a new crop of opposition leaders coming onto the fray. It will also be time for LTK by 2021 to prepare to step aside.

By the 2021 election, I fully expect PAP to have lost its 2/3 majority, as per Aurvandil's prediction based on the demographic turning point. I also suspect the main opposition blocs will be firstly, WP, commanding an overwhelming majoring of opposition seats, and then followed by the Singaporeans First Party / NSP. The rest will be primarily spoilers. Kenneth Jeya, Chee Soon Juan, etc by then will be cynical and jaded
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Frankly I don't see it as cycle. I saw it as a steady, strong and uninterrupted momentum that took the country from 1963 to its zenith in 1984. A good indicator was when CPF contribution from the employer and employee reached 25%+25% + 50%. 2 decades of success.

There was a short recovery and since then a slow and steady decline with spikes and dips. A reflection of poor policies and a loss to address the economy in a sustainable way.



Singapore seems to follow a 20-year cycle. Our status as a sovereign nation which we first achieved on 31 Aug 1963 (via unilateral declaration of independence) marked the beginning of the first cycle which saw phenomenal industrial growth, and the forming of a coherent multi-cultural identity (not to be confused with an overall national identity or what it means to be Singaporean per se).
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Frankly I don't see it as cycle. I saw it as a steady, strong and uninterrupted momentum that took the country from 1963 to its zenith in 1984. A good indicator was when CPF contribution from the employer and employee reached 25%+25% + 50%. 2 decades of success.

There was a short recovery and since then a slow and steady decline with spikes and dips. A reflection of poor policies and a loss to address the economy in a sustainable way.


"Cycle" is probably not the best term. Was trying to segment SG's history into consecutive pieces to make sense of how we got to where we are.

Agree on 1963-1984. After that, PAP lost its core values and their policies changed to reflect that erosion.

Incomes at the bottom have languished for close to twenty years now.
 

frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Frankly I don't see it as cycle. I saw it as a steady, strong and uninterrupted momentum that took the country from 1963 to its zenith in 1984. A good indicator was when CPF contribution from the employer and employee reached 25%+25% + 50%. 2 decades of success.

There was a short recovery and since then a slow and steady decline with spikes and dips. A reflection of poor policies and a loss to address the economy in a sustainable way.

if it was the zenith of success,50% of cpf contribution rates and the insane interest rates back then,the pioneer generation would have been rolling in cash now....obviously that hasnt happened.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
if it was the zenith of success,50% of cpf contribution rates and the insane interest rates back then,the pioneer generation would have been rolling in cash now....obviously that hasnt happened.


The nominal wage level was much lower, but it was enough to meet cost of living. Those who invested wisely in properties are sitting on a fortune, but that wealth is not unlocked due sentimental value or to accommodate a multi-generational family in the case of a landed property. That asset was built through decades of toil and work.

Interest rates were not insane as they reflected the widespread inflation happening in the developed world.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
That generation not only made a lot of money but had great quality of life with lots of hope for their children. We were scaling the world's indicators across so many markers.

I recall a particular group whose annual holidays were planned on which new city SIA was flying to. Nearly everyone in the office went overseas for holidays.

if it was the zenith of success,50% of cpf contribution rates and the insane interest rates back then,the pioneer generation would have been rolling in cash now....obviously that hasnt happened.
 

frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
The nominal wage level was much lower, but it was enough to meet cost of living. Those who invested wisely in properties are sitting on a fortune, but that wealth is not unlocked due sentimental value or to accommodate a multi-generational family in the case of a landed property. That asset was built through decades of toil and work.

Interest rates were not insane as they reflected the widespread inflation happening in the developed world.

yes but 50% contribution rates....lets say a typical low wage worker made $480 a month.....thats $240 a month to CPF,or $2400 a year.....assuming rates were 6.5% during the period of boom,20 years of $2400 a year contribution at 6.5% interest would have generated a handsome sum of $100,000 in cpf....such is the power of CPF when PAP was still investing for the good of the people and not enriching themselves.$480 a month salary is a reasonable figure since i assume that wages go up over time.

is that too much?maybe wages were lower say $240 a month?
 
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