Heard from the prop agent and also loan agent....latest cooling measure though seems severe doesn't seem to cool the market as seen in the fish market like response at Q-bay....they are now fearing another cooling measure from govt if the next 2 new project launches have the same crazy response....
-
IP addresses are NOT logged in this forum so there's no point asking. Please note that this forum is full of homophobes, racists, lunatics, schizophrenics & absolute nut jobs with a smattering of geniuses, Chinese chauvinists, Moderate Muslims and last but not least a couple of "know-it-alls" constantly sprouting their dubious wisdom. If you believe that content generated by unsavory characters might cause you offense PLEASE LEAVE NOW! Sammyboy Admin and Staff are not responsible for your hurt feelings should you choose to read any of the content here. The OTHER forum is HERE so please stop asking.
Property prices. Crash coming?
- Thread starter palden
- Start date
I am guessing majority of those that bought Qbay are 1st timers or upgraders that intend to sell their existing hdb. So they are not affected by ABSD.
[SINGAPORE] In what could be the first rumblings of a long-raging storm, property counters fell while analysts predicted that private home sales would drop and even prices may dip.
Some expect property stocks to fall by up to 15 per cent in the wake of the most comprehensive round of cooling measures to hit the sector.
The more dire estimates expect property prices, which have climbed despite previous cooling measures, to fall by up to 10 per cent and for transaction volumes to crash by up to 50 per cent.
Analysts have also warned that more measures could be in the works.
Standard Chartered said private home take-up could potentially fall to about 10,000 units in 2013, a more than 50 per cent decline from the 21,600 units in 2012. This is assuming Singaporeans do not buy a second property due to the additional buyers stamp duty (ABSD) of 7 per cent which is now imposed on the purchase of a second property.
"A secondary effect is that current home owners with more than one home may refuse to sell their units because a repurchase would incur the ABSD. We expect resale transactions to fall by 30-50 per cent from the current 10,000 per year," added the bank.
UOB Kay Hian said it expects investment demand and the mass-market segment to be most impacted, with sales volumes expected to drop 20-40 per cent, and prices to dip 5 per cent.
Credit Suisse said it expects volumes to drop 30 per cent, given that about 30 per cent of purchases are for investment purposes, based on the results of a survey conducted.
"Near-term prices may still hold up due to strong balance sheets, but developers may turn desperate if inventory stagnates," said Credit Suisse. "Overall, we expect prices to remain relatively flattish, although we expect a further 5-10 per cent downside risk for prime due to the vacancy, given the oncoming supply and unsold units versus weak rental demand."
Barclays Research observed that the additional 5 per cent ABSD imposed on foreigners (foreigners and corporate entities now have to pay 15 per cent ABSD from their first purchase) would be a further blow to the high-end to luxury properties that typically have 30 per cent foreigner buyers and have already been lagging the suburban properties on excess unsold completed inventory.
While Maybank Kim Eng analyst Wilson Liew lauded the imposition of ABSD on Singaporeans purchasing their second, third, and subsequent homes, he questioned the necessity of raising the ABSD for foreigners.
"The percentage of foreign non-PR homebuyers had remained fairly stable at 7 per cent in each quarter last year. They also accounted for less than 10 per cent of the transactions for properties priced below $1,670 psf. Hence, the higher ABSD imposed on foreign buying could have been unnecessary," he said.
Mr Liew said he expects the mass market segment to be the worst hit as marginal investors are forced to the sidelines. The high-end segment which had enjoyed a "mini-revival" in the last quarter is likely to go into intermission as well, but longer-term fundamentals will prevail.
The immediate impact of the measures was evident in the stock market, where property counters took a beating. Some of the biggest losers included Wing Tai Holdings which lost 18 cents (8.9 per cent) to close at $1.84, City Developments which lost 95 cents (7.54 per cent) to close at $11.65, and Keppel Land which lost 31 cents (7.2 per cent) to close at $3.97.
SC Global Developments, the subject of a privatisation bid by chairman and chief executive Simon Cheong, bucked the trend, climbing half a cent to close at $1.805.
Yesterday, Mr Cheong bought an additional 3.042 million shares at $1.795-$1.80 each. With the public float standing at 14.52 per cent, any additional acquisition by Mr Cheong and/or other non-public shareholders that in aggregate exceeds 4.5 per cent will bring the public float below the minimum 10 per cent that is required for the company to stay listed. Mr Cheong's privatisation offer closes tomorrow.
Even as stocks bear the brunt of the knee-jerk reaction, OCBC analyst Eli Lee, who expects dips of 3-10 per cent, cautioned against buying on dips.
"We see the latest set of cooling measures having a deeper and more sustained impact on demand fundamentals," he said. "(They) point to a strong political will to soften property prices, and we expect sustained and aggressive curbs until prices reach levels deemed acceptable."
DMG & Partners analyst Goh Han Peng advocates holding back on bargain buying given that the full impact will only sink in slowly, as market activities dwindle and prices soften.
Bank stocks too slipped - UOB lost 44 cents (2.29 per cent) to close at $18.78; DBS lost 29 cents (1.97 per cent) to close at $14.41; OCBC lost 13 cents (1.33 per cent) to close at $9.62.
UOB Kay Hian noted that loan growth has already slowed after the previous six sets of cooling measures, with housing loans moderating from a high of 23.4 per cent in Aug 10 to 16.1 per cent in November.
DBS said it expects housing loan growth to be supported by drawdown of mortgage applications over the next 1-2 quarters, but to gradually drop.
"We forecast mortgage loans will grow by 8 per cent in 2013, noting that there is still a market for natural new home buyers and HDB upgraders."
What's more, the cooling drive could continue. Leif Lybecker Eskesen, chief economist for India & Asean at HSBC, said: "It's too early to tell, with interest rates expected to remain very low for the foreseeable future and the economy projected to gradually recover during the course of 2013. Moreover, with global economic and financial conditions also likely to look better when we get deeper into 2013, foreign inflows into the property market could pick up."
"In our view, further cooling measures over the next few years cannot be ruled out," he said.
Maybank Kim Eng's Mr Liew said that while the government's latest salvo aims to soften the property market, it is unlikely to be its last in this low interest rate environment.
Some expect property stocks to fall by up to 15 per cent in the wake of the most comprehensive round of cooling measures to hit the sector.
The more dire estimates expect property prices, which have climbed despite previous cooling measures, to fall by up to 10 per cent and for transaction volumes to crash by up to 50 per cent.
Analysts have also warned that more measures could be in the works.
Standard Chartered said private home take-up could potentially fall to about 10,000 units in 2013, a more than 50 per cent decline from the 21,600 units in 2012. This is assuming Singaporeans do not buy a second property due to the additional buyers stamp duty (ABSD) of 7 per cent which is now imposed on the purchase of a second property.
"A secondary effect is that current home owners with more than one home may refuse to sell their units because a repurchase would incur the ABSD. We expect resale transactions to fall by 30-50 per cent from the current 10,000 per year," added the bank.
UOB Kay Hian said it expects investment demand and the mass-market segment to be most impacted, with sales volumes expected to drop 20-40 per cent, and prices to dip 5 per cent.
Credit Suisse said it expects volumes to drop 30 per cent, given that about 30 per cent of purchases are for investment purposes, based on the results of a survey conducted.
"Near-term prices may still hold up due to strong balance sheets, but developers may turn desperate if inventory stagnates," said Credit Suisse. "Overall, we expect prices to remain relatively flattish, although we expect a further 5-10 per cent downside risk for prime due to the vacancy, given the oncoming supply and unsold units versus weak rental demand."
Barclays Research observed that the additional 5 per cent ABSD imposed on foreigners (foreigners and corporate entities now have to pay 15 per cent ABSD from their first purchase) would be a further blow to the high-end to luxury properties that typically have 30 per cent foreigner buyers and have already been lagging the suburban properties on excess unsold completed inventory.
While Maybank Kim Eng analyst Wilson Liew lauded the imposition of ABSD on Singaporeans purchasing their second, third, and subsequent homes, he questioned the necessity of raising the ABSD for foreigners.
"The percentage of foreign non-PR homebuyers had remained fairly stable at 7 per cent in each quarter last year. They also accounted for less than 10 per cent of the transactions for properties priced below $1,670 psf. Hence, the higher ABSD imposed on foreign buying could have been unnecessary," he said.
Mr Liew said he expects the mass market segment to be the worst hit as marginal investors are forced to the sidelines. The high-end segment which had enjoyed a "mini-revival" in the last quarter is likely to go into intermission as well, but longer-term fundamentals will prevail.
The immediate impact of the measures was evident in the stock market, where property counters took a beating. Some of the biggest losers included Wing Tai Holdings which lost 18 cents (8.9 per cent) to close at $1.84, City Developments which lost 95 cents (7.54 per cent) to close at $11.65, and Keppel Land which lost 31 cents (7.2 per cent) to close at $3.97.
SC Global Developments, the subject of a privatisation bid by chairman and chief executive Simon Cheong, bucked the trend, climbing half a cent to close at $1.805.
Yesterday, Mr Cheong bought an additional 3.042 million shares at $1.795-$1.80 each. With the public float standing at 14.52 per cent, any additional acquisition by Mr Cheong and/or other non-public shareholders that in aggregate exceeds 4.5 per cent will bring the public float below the minimum 10 per cent that is required for the company to stay listed. Mr Cheong's privatisation offer closes tomorrow.
Even as stocks bear the brunt of the knee-jerk reaction, OCBC analyst Eli Lee, who expects dips of 3-10 per cent, cautioned against buying on dips.
"We see the latest set of cooling measures having a deeper and more sustained impact on demand fundamentals," he said. "(They) point to a strong political will to soften property prices, and we expect sustained and aggressive curbs until prices reach levels deemed acceptable."
DMG & Partners analyst Goh Han Peng advocates holding back on bargain buying given that the full impact will only sink in slowly, as market activities dwindle and prices soften.
Bank stocks too slipped - UOB lost 44 cents (2.29 per cent) to close at $18.78; DBS lost 29 cents (1.97 per cent) to close at $14.41; OCBC lost 13 cents (1.33 per cent) to close at $9.62.
UOB Kay Hian noted that loan growth has already slowed after the previous six sets of cooling measures, with housing loans moderating from a high of 23.4 per cent in Aug 10 to 16.1 per cent in November.
DBS said it expects housing loan growth to be supported by drawdown of mortgage applications over the next 1-2 quarters, but to gradually drop.
"We forecast mortgage loans will grow by 8 per cent in 2013, noting that there is still a market for natural new home buyers and HDB upgraders."
What's more, the cooling drive could continue. Leif Lybecker Eskesen, chief economist for India & Asean at HSBC, said: "It's too early to tell, with interest rates expected to remain very low for the foreseeable future and the economy projected to gradually recover during the course of 2013. Moreover, with global economic and financial conditions also likely to look better when we get deeper into 2013, foreign inflows into the property market could pick up."
"In our view, further cooling measures over the next few years cannot be ruled out," he said.
Maybank Kim Eng's Mr Liew said that while the government's latest salvo aims to soften the property market, it is unlikely to be its last in this low interest rate environment.
If you are an MP making millions would you dare to risk all that to suggest REAL changes that may or may not work
Especially if your ideas risk upsetting the emperor LKY. There are also alot of special interests groups in the gov't. If you unknowingly encroach on someones pet project you might get marked.
PAP want to make $ over everyone and everything. They will never reduce land prices.
Riversound launched long ago, by now almost all sold. Common for balance units to have discount due to poor facing etc
The root cause is the breakneck pace of FTs coming into the country, nothing technical about it.
Treasure trove 600 plus
Simplest solution: just legislate that all properties owned by foreigners can only be sold to singaporean individuals.
No sale of freehold properties to foreigners and all such present holdings will be given 3 years for transfer failing which they will be subjected to a state auction.
That will stop all this nonsensical ramping up of local property prices.
But this will never happen because the PAP government loves money too much and doesn't want to defend the country and citizens of Singapore!!
No sale of freehold properties to foreigners and all such present holdings will be given 3 years for transfer failing which they will be subjected to a state auction.
That will stop all this nonsensical ramping up of local property prices.
But this will never happen because the PAP government loves money too much and doesn't want to defend the country and citizens of Singapore!!
Exactly Exactly Exactly. They just love to fool Sinkies. Property prices is easy to control. Just look at all the waterfront bungalows at Gold Coast, all suffering for years due to the government's policy which could easily be emulated by Sinkies govt.
you done yourselfand your children good....
Leedon also slashing.
