Its slightly different in the SAF today. Have friends with poly diploma (about 6 I can even name off-hand), already LTC by mid-30s these days. Retire MAJ means either damn chiak hong, or damn chiak lat. In fact the SLTC rank was introduced not long ago as too many are making it to COL by the 45 year retirement age, hence need a buffer rank.
However you are right that COL at 44 likely to be at least LMS. However once still COL after age 42 means unlikely to make 1 star.... hence in this case he is likely to be hanged. Fine > $1500 or similar amount, he is likely to lose his retirement benefits, not to mention reduce his chances of a GLC job
I agree with you re: the introduction of the SLTC rank.