https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2020-07-19/doc-iivhvpwx6252121.shtml
胡锡进：美国若踩到中国底线 即使热战中国也不怕
2020年07月19日 13:28 环球时报
638
胡锡进：当下的中美关系被形容为“自由落体式下坠”，“新冷战”这个词越来越多出现在世界媒体和观察家的分析中。
然而老胡今天要说的是，中国不会与美国打新冷战。新冷战是要中美双方社会彻底动员、世界大部分国家都参与进来的全人类运动，不是美国执政团队和支持他们的那部分精英能一家独定的。把人类重新带回到冷战中，这是历史决不会原谅的罪恶。华盛顿那样干将面临从美国国内到全世界的大量阻力。
冷战时代与今天完全不同。那时的世界形成了社会主义和资本主义两大阵营，苏联有把红旗插遍全球的意识形态，西方有与苏联式社会主义势不两立的危机感。那两个阵营几无往来，是两个互不交织的平行市场，两个技术体系，供应链彼此隔绝，打冷战给双方提供的政治凝聚力等好处远远大于他们因此而付出的代价。
今天的世界高度融合，它不是强行的政治塑造，而是技术进步和市场经济不断扩张的结果。除非有生死存亡的绝对紧迫性，没有力量能够把世界重新进行政治或者意识形态阵营的彻底分割，那样的倒退会与技术进步和市场经济的本性发生根本冲突。
虽然中国的技术能力仍弱于美国，但市场规模已几乎与美并驾齐驱，试问，美国的芯片如果都不卖给中国了，它卖给谁去？目前它的一半以上产量销往中国；美国的农产品如果也不往中国卖了，部分土地就要撂荒；通用汽车40%的销量在中国市场，如果它退出，就不再是世界有竞争力的公司。
德国奔驰、宝马、奥迪的第一大市场都是中国，欧洲各大奢侈品牌的很大一块利益和未来希望也在中国这边。欧洲很多古典而美丽、但却萧条的城镇因为中国游客的到来而更容易延续繁荣与骄傲。欧洲人虽不喜欢中国的意识形态，但与中国交往并未妨碍他们保持自我，反倒是与中国“脱钩”让他们感到未来的某种悬空。
诚然，为了紧迫的国家安全，为了不遭到 “东方恶魔”的入侵和奴役，西方人是可以毅然决然行动起来，联合起来的，无论多么痛苦都与中国打一场生死攸关的新冷战。谁被逼到绝境时都能做出不惜代价的选择。
然而问题是，中国是那样的恶魔吗？中西之间真如华盛顿说的那样“你死我活”吗？美国至今拿不出华为监控世界的任何证据。反倒是“棱镜门”计划把德国总理默克尔都监听了，让欧洲人记忆犹新。说中国军事扩张、侵犯他国，结果都是一些边境和海洋权益纠纷，中国只是与周边国家一样，有一些在海上宣示主权的行动，中国与那些国家30多年未开一枪了。中印刚刚在边境打了一场“群架”，连印度总理都说中国没有入侵他们的领土。
美国说中国在篡改好莱坞，因为好莱坞为扩大中国市场而对个别片子某个不太重要的情节元素做了避免刺激中国人的修改，还有孔子学院里不允许使用攻击中国的材料，这些都被当作了中国要改变美国意识形态的证据。而稍有理性就能看出，这些只是在中美交往时，中方争取得到尊重的努力，完全不涉及中国对美国内部规则的修改。对中国这样的大国保持一点客气和入乡随俗，难道不应该吗？
特朗普政府虚构了一个西方世界“受到中国独裁威胁”的场景，对于这样的虚构性，美国和西方很多人是有不同程度感知的。以这样的虚假信息和欺骗方式来动员对华旷日持久的新冷战，这对美国的执政团队和支持他们的政治精英来说有着根本的困难。
所以，动员西方国家都不使用华为设备，华盛顿可谓使出了吃奶的力气，接下来它要让通用、麦当劳、苹果、VISA还有耐克全部撤出中国，美国大学都赶走中国留学生，行得通吗？让德国和欧洲的企业，还有日韩的公司也都撤出中国，那些国家会跟吗？
所以老胡说，我们瓦解新冷战要比美国把新冷战坐实的可操作性和胜算大得多。美国少数地缘政治狂希望不断激怒中国，通过双方一来一去的加码互动，对美国和西方社会开展进一步的极端政治动员，以获得对华打冷战更激烈出招的授权。
有人问，难道我们就忍气吞声了？面对挑衅就无动于衷了？当然不能。美国若踩到中国底线，非要打，那么即使热战，中国也不怕。关于这一点，美国懂，蔡英文当局也懂。世界有中国在被冲击底线时会怎样断然反击的记忆。
中国是见过世面、有着充分韧性的文明，这样的文明塑造了我们坚定的意志，也赋予了我们充分的理性和智慧。今天的中国既不能怂，也不能冲动式地“豁了”。老胡已经多次倡导，中国人应当做的是与美开展地缘政治史上从未有过的战略大周旋。
我们今天有着强大凝聚力，同时有绵延不绝的发展潜力，我们在全球有很多朋友，他们在从新疆到香港问题上支持中国，这一切共同为我们对美开展战略大周旋奠定了坚实基础。我们有充分能力顶着美国压力继续执行自己的议程。我们要继续扩大开放，美国越是试图搞新冷战，我们越要扩大开放。这样的中国对美方的新冷战野心将构成前所未有的战略泥潭。我们将拖垮对方，美国终将在其内部形不成真正不惜代价的决心，也在西方形不成一致对抗中国的凝聚力。
所谓新冷战，将成为美国实力单方面的漫长消耗。那里很适合建造一座存放美国超级大国辉煌回忆的纪念馆。
关键字 : 美国胡锡进中国
我要反馈
Hu Xijin: if the United States steps on China's bottom line, China will not be afraid of hot war
Global times at 13:28, July 19, 2020
Six hundred and thirty-eight
Hu Xijin: at present, Sino US relations are described as "free fall", and the word "new cold war" is increasingly appearing in the analysis of world media and observers.
However, what Lao hu wants to say today is that China will not fight a new cold war with the United States. The new cold war is an all human movement in which the Chinese and American societies are mobilized thoroughly and most countries in the world participate. It is not the ruling team of the United States and the elites who support them alone. To bring humanity back to the cold war is a sin that history will never forgive. Washington will face a lot of resistance from within the United States and around the world.
The Cold War era is totally different from today. At that time, the world formed two camps of socialism and capitalism. The Soviet Union had the ideology of putting the red flag all over the world, and the West had a sense of crisis irresistible with Soviet style socialism. The two camps have little contact with each other. They are two parallel markets that are not interwoven with each other. The supply chain is isolated from each other. The political cohesion provided by the cold war to both sides is far greater than the cost they have paid for it.
Today's world is highly integrated. It is not a forced political shaping, but the result of technological progress and the continuous expansion of market economy. Unless there is an absolute urgency of life and death, there is no power to completely divide the world into political or ideological camps. Such retrogression will fundamentally conflict with technological progress and the nature of market economy.
Although China's technological capacity is still weaker than that of the United States, its market size has almost kept pace with that of the United States. If the chips of the United States are not sold to China, who will it sell to? At present, more than half of its output is sold to China; if American agricultural products are not sold in China, part of the land will be abandoned; 40% of GM's sales are in the Chinese market, and if it withdraws, it will no longer be a competitive company in the world.
China is the largest market for German Benz, BMW and Audi, and a large part of the interests and future hopes of European luxury brands are also in China. Many classical and beautiful but depressed towns in Europe are more likely to continue their prosperity and pride because of the arrival of Chinese tourists. Although Europeans do not like China's ideology, their interaction with China does not prevent them from maintaining their self-identity. On the contrary, they feel that the future is hanging in the air by "decoupling" from China.
It is true that for the sake of urgent national security and not to be invaded and enslaved by "Oriental demons", Westerners can resolutely act and unite to fight a new cold war with China no matter how painful. Anyone who is forced into a desperate situation can make a choice at all costs.
But the question is, is China such a demon? Is it true that China and the West are "killing each other" as Washington said? So far, the United States has not provided any evidence that Huawei is monitoring the world. On the contrary, the "prism door" plan has monitored German Chancellor Angela Merkel, which makes the European memory fresh. It is said that China's military expansion and invasion of other countries have resulted in disputes over border and maritime rights and interests. China, just like neighboring countries, has some actions to declare its sovereignty at sea. China and those countries have not fired a gun for more than 30 years. China and India have just had a "group fight" on the border, and even the Prime Minister of India has said that China has not invaded their territory.
The United States says that China is tampering with Hollywood, because Hollywood has modified some minor plot elements of individual films to avoid stimulating the Chinese people in order to expand the Chinese market, and the Confucius Institute does not allow the use of materials attacking China. All these are taken as evidence that China wants to change American ideology. With a little bit of rationality, it can be seen that these are only China's efforts to win respect in Sino US exchanges, and they do not involve China's revision of the internal rules of the United States. Shouldn't we be a little polite to a big country like China and do as the Romans do in Rome?
The trump administration has made up a scenario in which the western world is "threatened by Chinese dictatorship". Many people in the United States and the West have different degrees of perception of this fiction. To mobilize the protracted new cold war with China by such false information and deception is a fundamental difficulty for the US ruling team and the political elites who support them.
So, mobilizing western countries not to use Huawei's equipment, Washington can be said to have worked hard. Next, it will let GM, McDonald's, apple, visa and Nike withdraw from China, and American universities will drive away Chinese students. Is it feasible? Let German and European enterprises as well as Japanese and Korean companies withdraw from China. Will those countries follow?
Therefore, the old bullshit said that our disintegration of the new cold war is much more maneuverable and more likely to win than that of the United States. A small number of geopolitical maniacs in the United States hope to continuously infuriate China and further mobilize the extreme politics of the United States and the western society through the interaction between the two sides, so as to obtain the authorization to fight China more fiercely in the cold war.
Some people ask, do we just swallow our anger? Be indifferent to provocations? Of course not. If the United States stepped on China's bottom line and had to fight, China would not be afraid even if the war was hot. The United States and Tsai ing Wen understand this. The world has the memory of how China will fight back when it is hit by the bottom line.
China is
胡锡进：美国若踩到中国底线 即使热战中国也不怕
2020年07月19日 13:28 环球时报
638
胡锡进：当下的中美关系被形容为“自由落体式下坠”，“新冷战”这个词越来越多出现在世界媒体和观察家的分析中。
然而老胡今天要说的是，中国不会与美国打新冷战。新冷战是要中美双方社会彻底动员、世界大部分国家都参与进来的全人类运动，不是美国执政团队和支持他们的那部分精英能一家独定的。把人类重新带回到冷战中，这是历史决不会原谅的罪恶。华盛顿那样干将面临从美国国内到全世界的大量阻力。
冷战时代与今天完全不同。那时的世界形成了社会主义和资本主义两大阵营，苏联有把红旗插遍全球的意识形态，西方有与苏联式社会主义势不两立的危机感。那两个阵营几无往来，是两个互不交织的平行市场，两个技术体系，供应链彼此隔绝，打冷战给双方提供的政治凝聚力等好处远远大于他们因此而付出的代价。
今天的世界高度融合，它不是强行的政治塑造，而是技术进步和市场经济不断扩张的结果。除非有生死存亡的绝对紧迫性，没有力量能够把世界重新进行政治或者意识形态阵营的彻底分割，那样的倒退会与技术进步和市场经济的本性发生根本冲突。
虽然中国的技术能力仍弱于美国，但市场规模已几乎与美并驾齐驱，试问，美国的芯片如果都不卖给中国了，它卖给谁去？目前它的一半以上产量销往中国；美国的农产品如果也不往中国卖了，部分土地就要撂荒；通用汽车40%的销量在中国市场，如果它退出，就不再是世界有竞争力的公司。
德国奔驰、宝马、奥迪的第一大市场都是中国，欧洲各大奢侈品牌的很大一块利益和未来希望也在中国这边。欧洲很多古典而美丽、但却萧条的城镇因为中国游客的到来而更容易延续繁荣与骄傲。欧洲人虽不喜欢中国的意识形态，但与中国交往并未妨碍他们保持自我，反倒是与中国“脱钩”让他们感到未来的某种悬空。
诚然，为了紧迫的国家安全，为了不遭到 “东方恶魔”的入侵和奴役，西方人是可以毅然决然行动起来，联合起来的，无论多么痛苦都与中国打一场生死攸关的新冷战。谁被逼到绝境时都能做出不惜代价的选择。
然而问题是，中国是那样的恶魔吗？中西之间真如华盛顿说的那样“你死我活”吗？美国至今拿不出华为监控世界的任何证据。反倒是“棱镜门”计划把德国总理默克尔都监听了，让欧洲人记忆犹新。说中国军事扩张、侵犯他国，结果都是一些边境和海洋权益纠纷，中国只是与周边国家一样，有一些在海上宣示主权的行动，中国与那些国家30多年未开一枪了。中印刚刚在边境打了一场“群架”，连印度总理都说中国没有入侵他们的领土。
美国说中国在篡改好莱坞，因为好莱坞为扩大中国市场而对个别片子某个不太重要的情节元素做了避免刺激中国人的修改，还有孔子学院里不允许使用攻击中国的材料，这些都被当作了中国要改变美国意识形态的证据。而稍有理性就能看出，这些只是在中美交往时，中方争取得到尊重的努力，完全不涉及中国对美国内部规则的修改。对中国这样的大国保持一点客气和入乡随俗，难道不应该吗？
特朗普政府虚构了一个西方世界“受到中国独裁威胁”的场景，对于这样的虚构性，美国和西方很多人是有不同程度感知的。以这样的虚假信息和欺骗方式来动员对华旷日持久的新冷战，这对美国的执政团队和支持他们的政治精英来说有着根本的困难。
所以，动员西方国家都不使用华为设备，华盛顿可谓使出了吃奶的力气，接下来它要让通用、麦当劳、苹果、VISA还有耐克全部撤出中国，美国大学都赶走中国留学生，行得通吗？让德国和欧洲的企业，还有日韩的公司也都撤出中国，那些国家会跟吗？
所以老胡说，我们瓦解新冷战要比美国把新冷战坐实的可操作性和胜算大得多。美国少数地缘政治狂希望不断激怒中国，通过双方一来一去的加码互动，对美国和西方社会开展进一步的极端政治动员，以获得对华打冷战更激烈出招的授权。
有人问，难道我们就忍气吞声了？面对挑衅就无动于衷了？当然不能。美国若踩到中国底线，非要打，那么即使热战，中国也不怕。关于这一点，美国懂，蔡英文当局也懂。世界有中国在被冲击底线时会怎样断然反击的记忆。
中国是见过世面、有着充分韧性的文明，这样的文明塑造了我们坚定的意志，也赋予了我们充分的理性和智慧。今天的中国既不能怂，也不能冲动式地“豁了”。老胡已经多次倡导，中国人应当做的是与美开展地缘政治史上从未有过的战略大周旋。
我们今天有着强大凝聚力，同时有绵延不绝的发展潜力，我们在全球有很多朋友，他们在从新疆到香港问题上支持中国，这一切共同为我们对美开展战略大周旋奠定了坚实基础。我们有充分能力顶着美国压力继续执行自己的议程。我们要继续扩大开放，美国越是试图搞新冷战，我们越要扩大开放。这样的中国对美方的新冷战野心将构成前所未有的战略泥潭。我们将拖垮对方，美国终将在其内部形不成真正不惜代价的决心，也在西方形不成一致对抗中国的凝聚力。
所谓新冷战，将成为美国实力单方面的漫长消耗。那里很适合建造一座存放美国超级大国辉煌回忆的纪念馆。
关键字 : 美国胡锡进中国
我要反馈
Hu Xijin: if the United States steps on China's bottom line, China will not be afraid of hot war
Global times at 13:28, July 19, 2020
Six hundred and thirty-eight
Hu Xijin: at present, Sino US relations are described as "free fall", and the word "new cold war" is increasingly appearing in the analysis of world media and observers.
However, what Lao hu wants to say today is that China will not fight a new cold war with the United States. The new cold war is an all human movement in which the Chinese and American societies are mobilized thoroughly and most countries in the world participate. It is not the ruling team of the United States and the elites who support them alone. To bring humanity back to the cold war is a sin that history will never forgive. Washington will face a lot of resistance from within the United States and around the world.
The Cold War era is totally different from today. At that time, the world formed two camps of socialism and capitalism. The Soviet Union had the ideology of putting the red flag all over the world, and the West had a sense of crisis irresistible with Soviet style socialism. The two camps have little contact with each other. They are two parallel markets that are not interwoven with each other. The supply chain is isolated from each other. The political cohesion provided by the cold war to both sides is far greater than the cost they have paid for it.
Today's world is highly integrated. It is not a forced political shaping, but the result of technological progress and the continuous expansion of market economy. Unless there is an absolute urgency of life and death, there is no power to completely divide the world into political or ideological camps. Such retrogression will fundamentally conflict with technological progress and the nature of market economy.
Although China's technological capacity is still weaker than that of the United States, its market size has almost kept pace with that of the United States. If the chips of the United States are not sold to China, who will it sell to? At present, more than half of its output is sold to China; if American agricultural products are not sold in China, part of the land will be abandoned; 40% of GM's sales are in the Chinese market, and if it withdraws, it will no longer be a competitive company in the world.
China is the largest market for German Benz, BMW and Audi, and a large part of the interests and future hopes of European luxury brands are also in China. Many classical and beautiful but depressed towns in Europe are more likely to continue their prosperity and pride because of the arrival of Chinese tourists. Although Europeans do not like China's ideology, their interaction with China does not prevent them from maintaining their self-identity. On the contrary, they feel that the future is hanging in the air by "decoupling" from China.
It is true that for the sake of urgent national security and not to be invaded and enslaved by "Oriental demons", Westerners can resolutely act and unite to fight a new cold war with China no matter how painful. Anyone who is forced into a desperate situation can make a choice at all costs.
But the question is, is China such a demon? Is it true that China and the West are "killing each other" as Washington said? So far, the United States has not provided any evidence that Huawei is monitoring the world. On the contrary, the "prism door" plan has monitored German Chancellor Angela Merkel, which makes the European memory fresh. It is said that China's military expansion and invasion of other countries have resulted in disputes over border and maritime rights and interests. China, just like neighboring countries, has some actions to declare its sovereignty at sea. China and those countries have not fired a gun for more than 30 years. China and India have just had a "group fight" on the border, and even the Prime Minister of India has said that China has not invaded their territory.
The United States says that China is tampering with Hollywood, because Hollywood has modified some minor plot elements of individual films to avoid stimulating the Chinese people in order to expand the Chinese market, and the Confucius Institute does not allow the use of materials attacking China. All these are taken as evidence that China wants to change American ideology. With a little bit of rationality, it can be seen that these are only China's efforts to win respect in Sino US exchanges, and they do not involve China's revision of the internal rules of the United States. Shouldn't we be a little polite to a big country like China and do as the Romans do in Rome?
The trump administration has made up a scenario in which the western world is "threatened by Chinese dictatorship". Many people in the United States and the West have different degrees of perception of this fiction. To mobilize the protracted new cold war with China by such false information and deception is a fundamental difficulty for the US ruling team and the political elites who support them.
So, mobilizing western countries not to use Huawei's equipment, Washington can be said to have worked hard. Next, it will let GM, McDonald's, apple, visa and Nike withdraw from China, and American universities will drive away Chinese students. Is it feasible? Let German and European enterprises as well as Japanese and Korean companies withdraw from China. Will those countries follow?
Therefore, the old bullshit said that our disintegration of the new cold war is much more maneuverable and more likely to win than that of the United States. A small number of geopolitical maniacs in the United States hope to continuously infuriate China and further mobilize the extreme politics of the United States and the western society through the interaction between the two sides, so as to obtain the authorization to fight China more fiercely in the cold war.
Some people ask, do we just swallow our anger? Be indifferent to provocations? Of course not. If the United States stepped on China's bottom line and had to fight, China would not be afraid even if the war was hot. The United States and Tsai ing Wen understand this. The world has the memory of how China will fight back when it is hit by the bottom line.
China is
