Will Apple iPad be end of Notebook, Netbook PC ?

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Notebook sales growth goes negative. Can we blame the iPad yet?
Posted by Philip Elmer-DeWitt
September 17, 2010 6:47 AM

* NPD data showing that after six months of decelerating growth, U.S. retail notebook unit growth fell 4% year over year in August, marking the first time those numbers had actually gone negative.
* Similar data for the first week of September showing that units fell 4% year over year again.
* BestBuy CEO Brian Dunn's widely repeated remarks in the Wall Street Journal that "internal estimates showed that the iPad had cannibalized sales from laptop PCs by as much as 50 percent." [UPDATE: Dunn is backing off those remarks. See here.]

Huberty concludes: "We expect tablets to continue to pressure PCs as more vendors launch products (e.g., Dell Streak and Samsung Tab) and Apple expands its iPad distribution."

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

If this trend takes root, it will be the slow death of factories that
make net-book and notebook PC and their accessories.

It will also spell a down slide fate for paper books and magazines
and their associated industry.

 

[longbow]

Ipad Great for crusing the internet. But big chunk of notebook and MS office market is still huge. The office crowd - the ones that pay full price still needs the notebooks. You walk into any Gov office and they are all running on MS and notebook/desktops.

FYI, MS Q4 2010 had income of $4B +

However, netbooks are are vulnerable to Ipad because many netbook users are buying it for crusing the internet.

Put it this way, if you had budget to buy just 1 computer, would you choose ipad or notebook? I'II pick a notebook so that I can run MS Office AND cruise the net, play games, boot up any USB, card drive system, excel, word, picture file you throw at me. And I can plug it into pretty much any printer. So people that buy ipads already own a notebook. Kind of like the guy with a Mercedes for business and a spunky 2 door convertible for fun. Uesless for picking up business associates, kids from school, luggage to airport, marketing from NTUC.

Going forward, the smartphones are now able to do what the ipad is doing.

The spectacular Apple results are NOT from the ipad but from the new Iphone. Actually ipad sales are slow!

I see no slow deaths for mfg of netbooks. The same factories that make the notebook and netbook are also making the various tablet PC, and samrtphones.

 

[Alamaking]

If I got 1k, I will buy iPad, cox I have mbp, no need laptop liao, lol

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Ipad Great for crusing the internet. But big chunk of notebook and MS office market is still huge. The office crowd - the ones that pay full price still needs the notebooks. You walk into any Gov office and they are all running on MS and notebook/desktops.

FYI, MS Q4 2010 had income of $4B +

However, netbooks are are vulnerable to Ipad because many netbook users are buying it for crusing the internet.

Going forward, the smartphones are now able to do what the ipad is doing.

The spectacular Apple results are NOT from the ipad but from the new Iphone. Actually ipad sales are slow!

I see no slow deaths for mfg of netbooks. The same factories that make the notebook and netbook are also making the various tablet PC, and samrtphones.

iPad sold nearly 5 million sets so far. And the demand is still strong. But iPad can surface in many forms from other players like Google, Amazon, Dell etc. So when I mentioned iPad, I actually meant the iPad concept.
Sorry about that slip on my part.

The other thing to note is the Cloud computing, which if it catch on well, will be a boost for iPad type of devices and a subsequent downside for netbooks , especially when eBooks industry come into prominence.

We should see how the trend goes within a year.!!

 

[Ash007]

I agree netbook is the real casualty in this category. But I don't think traditional laptops/desktop is going to suffer much. If there is a decline its something else. In the last speech at D6, If I remember correctly, Steve actually said we are moving into a world where there would be different computing devices. Think of vehicles on the roads. There is still a need for trucks, cars, motorbikes, bicycles for each individual needs. I have a netbook, MBP and is going to get an Ipad soon. Netbooks are still great when I use it to travel, it is more convenient carrying a netbook then my MBP around. MBP, heavy duty stuff like SC2, photoshop, Imovies etc, Ipad, easy carry around the house or casual web browsing outdoors.

Interesting enough, Ipad sales have not met up to market expectation.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/apple-beats-forecasts-but-ipad-disappoints-20101019-16r8j.html

Apple beats forecasts but iPad disappoints
October 19, 2010 - 10:52AM
Apple CEO Steve Jobs went on the offensive after a rare disappointment in sales by the iPad maker sent its shares tumbling, but even his biting words failed to reverse market sentiment.

Jobs, who has not addressed investors on an earnings call for some time, lashed out at competitors Google and Research in Motion and dismissed the upcoming range of smaller tablets made by Apple's rivals.

"The current crop of 7-inch tablets are going to be DOA, dead on arrival," Jobs told analysts on the conference call. "Their manufacturers will learn the painful lesson that their tablets are too small and increase the size next year."

Advertisement: Story continues below
Supply and production bottlenecks kept iPads, which have a 9.7-inch touch screen, from store shelves and buyers waiting weeks sometimes for their gadget. Although the 4.19 million iPads sold in the fiscal fourth quarter fell short of Wall Street's target of around 5 million, analysts said sales should ramp up in the holiday quarter as Apple resolves supply hitches.

Gross margins fell short of target as iPads, whose profit margin is lower than for iPhones, made up a larger proportion of Apple's sales. Investors had expected more from a company that had smashed Wall Street's targets in each of the past eight quarters.

Gross margins in the fiscal fourth quarter came to 36.9 per cent, below Wall Street's average forecast of 38.2 per cent.

There was no disappointment in iPhone sales, however. Apple sold 14.1 million of the smartphones, a gain of 91 per cent and better than Wall Street had expected. The company said demand is still outstripping supply.

Mac sales surged 27 per cent to 3.9 million, at the high end of analysts' estimates.

Home for the holidays

Some analysts agreed with Jobs - who said the iPad lacked credible rivals - and foresaw sales of the iPad, which came on the market only in April, jumpstarting in 2011 as the gadget gets rolled out to more countries and to more mass-market retail outlets like Wal-Mart.

"iPads were low, but I also think they had a lot of production problems getting that off the ground. So I don't think that really is a good demand indicator for iPad," said analyst Jane Snorek of First American Funds.

Some analysts had projected shipments of closer to or even more than 5 million for the tablet computer, but others had warned that supply constraints had held back sales.

Apple on Monday reported a net profit of $US4.31 billion ($4.34 billion), or $4.64 a share, in the fiscal fourth quarter ended Sept. 25, up from $US2.53 billion, or $2.77 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

That was better than the average analyst estimate of $4.08 a share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Revenue surged 67 per cent to $US20.3 billion, ahead of Wall Street's target of $US18.9 billion.

As it looks ahead to the holiday season, Apple - which typically issues very conservative guidance - forecast current-quarter earnings of $4.80 a share on revenue of $US23 billion. The consensus estimate is for a profit of $5.07 a share on revenue of $US22.4 billion.

Shares of Cupertino, California-based Apple slid 5.7 per cent to $299.67 in extended trading, after a brief trading halt. They closed at $US318.00 on Nasdaq.

Reuters

 

[red amoeba]

for me...my question is:

Can I download prawn using iPAD or not? Can I install BT (sorry uncle still using BT to catch prawn)....

But I know notebook can and then view prawn on seperate monitor...iPAD can or not?

 

[GoFlyKiteNow]

Apple's Jobs trashes Android tablets, rules out 7-inch iPad
updated 06:50 pm EDT, Mon October 18, 2010
Jobs says 7-inch tablet too small, Android poor

Apple chief Steve Jobs during a surprise appearance in the company's summer 2010 results call explained much of the company's strategy on tablets and dismissed seven-inch tablets, Android tablets as well as any prospect of a seven-inch iPad. He claimed that the size was too small to create viable tablet apps as it provided less than half the screen area of a 9.7-inch tablet like the iPad. Seven inches cuts down on the number of elements you can put on screen and would only work if you could make your own fingers smaller, Jobs said.

"It's meaningless [to go to seven inches] unless your tablet also includes sandpaper, so that the user can sand down their fingers to around one quarter of their present size," he said.

He saw efforts to shrink tablets down to pocket size, such as the five-inch Dell Streak and seven-inch Galaxy Tab, as being ineffective partly because many already have iPhones and iPods that fit better. About 10 inches was the "minimum" for a good tablet experience, the CEO explained. Many of these companies were going to produce tablets that were "dead on arrival" and would have to come back later with 10-inch models.

The smaller tablets don't have cost advantages even when they have reduced features, he added. Apple's integration meant it could keep the iPad's price down where others had to buy through middlemen that raised the costs.

Jobs took additional time to single out Android.

There are "zero" apps that are tablet-optimized, he claimed. Flash, an advantage of Android, also wasn't a factor since much of Internet video was now HTML5. Android fragmentation would be an issue as well since developers would have to accommodate different sizes. When even Google was warning against Android 2.2 tablets, that didn't bode well for companies that were ignoring the advice and going ahead anyways, the Apple chief said.

At the same time, he touted Apple's own long-term prospects in the field. Just as Apple won in iPods through "relentless improvement," it could do the same in tablets. He pointed out that iPads were already outselling Macs after two quarters and that it was "not a question of if, but a question of when" tablets were going to bite deeply into the notebook market. Education, and surprisingly business, were seeing very quick uptake, while everyone was helped by familiarity with the iPhone and iPod to get used to the experience.

"The more time passes, the more I'm convinced we've got the tiger by the tail," he said.


Read more: http://www.electronista.com/article....tablet.too.small.android.poor/#ixzz12lRfsijn

 

[halsey02]

If I got 1k, I will buy iPad, cox I have mbp, no need laptop liao, lol

Never mind about history, recent months, we have switched from MS based OS Notebooks, desktops ( none, now) to MBP ( Macbook pro), installing MS Office for Mac on all machines, at home. I still have my ASUS notebook computer running Windows 7 & that is the connection with the 'marketplace', but i am using the MBP more. I have stopped looking at windows based Notebooks, netbooks, after started using the MAC, somehow the windows based PC's...they look silly!

As for the Ipad, waiting for the next generation before I will buy one, just like the Itouch, i waited for the 4th Gen then I bought, never looked back, enjoyed the itouch.

What was the old Sam quote? "Buy a Mac....."

 

[Samthaikong]

As other manufacturers launching other varieties of touch pad. As price comes down to the level of netbook. We will see the slow death of netbook.

Who wants a netbook that boot up slow, clumsy to lug around. On the other hand, a touch pad is light and quick bootup. Can curl up at your cosy corner and use it. Battery juice can lasts for hours with easy extended usage thru third party batteries. Storage wise, nowaday there are cloud storages..

 

[gbomega]

Mac, iPod and iPhone concept is made for dummies who have no idea how to handle computers and handphones. We can already do Skype VOIP om 3G since Windows Mobile and Symbian days, and people boosting about iPhone able to do that over WiFi and they are amazed.

Knowlegde is the key, people die because of lack of knowledge.

 

[silverfox@]

Netbooks cannot compare with the performance of a full fledge notebook or pc. It's only for simple computing, surfing and its lightweight, small size. But the small screen can't really do much work on it. Kind of over-rated and the pricing is no longer competitive as notebooks have dropped price by a bit.

Ipads got no usb. :(
The world changes every day so we also have to change our choice of gadgets:p

 

[Ash007]

Mac, iPod and iPhone concept is made for dummies who have no idea how to handle computers and handphones. We can already do Skype VOIP om 3G since Windows Mobile and Symbian days, and people boosting about iPhone able to do that over WiFi and they are amazed.

Knowlegde is the key, people die because of lack of knowledge.

All these are true Apple is not the first to come up with the concepts, but they are the 1st to market these successfully to the masses.

 

[Char_Azn]

I agree netbook is the real casualty in this category. But I don't think traditional laptops/desktop is going to suffer much. If there is a decline its something else. In the last speech at D6, If I remember correctly, Steve actually said we are moving into a world where there would be different computing devices. Think of vehicles on the roads. There is still a need for trucks, cars, motorbikes, bicycles for each individual needs. I have a netbook, MBP and is going to get an Ipad soon. Netbooks are still great when I use it to travel, it is more convenient carrying a netbook then my MBP around. MBP, heavy duty stuff like SC2, photoshop, Imovies etc, Ipad, easy carry around the house or casual web browsing outdoors.

Interesting enough, Ipad sales have not met up to market expectation.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/apple-beats-forecasts-but-ipad-disappoints-20101019-16r8j.html

Steve seems to know what he is talking about. Devices like the IPad is taking over Netbook market mainly coz the Netbook and IPad are actually of similar specs. However if Processing power is needed, the IPad will fall short. It is unlikely that the tablet devices will take over the Laptop market at least not for the next 2-3 yrs

 

[gbomega]

Steve Jobs no eat medicine, spouting nonsense about the whole Appleton integration cycle again? Look at how pitiful Applet was in the 80s and he had to leave the board in disgrace.

Your Mac OS 8 and OS 9 was so internet idiot that you have to rewrite OS X using Unix and you claimed Mac OS to be the "best"

You said PowerPC chip is twice as fast over Intel chip yet all your Mac run on intel chips.

You locked up and closed all your devices in order to held them by the neck and over charge them in maintenance cost using cheap spare parts.

Your iPhone 4 came with manufacturer and design fault and you said all phones will have no signal when hold in a certain manner. In truth, you disregard industry experts advice in your pride.

The industry is pushing for standardised macro-USB charger, yet all your device still uses your own cable.

And many more... too tired to write...

Apple's Jobs trashes Android tablets, rules out 7-inch iPad
updated 06:50 pm EDT, Mon October 18, 2010
Jobs says 7-inch tablet too small, Android poor

Apple chief Steve Jobs during a surprise appearance in the company's summer 2010 results call explained much of the company's strategy on tablets and dismissed seven-inch tablets, Android tablets as well as any prospect of a seven-inch iPad. He claimed that the size was too small to create viable tablet apps as it provided less than half the screen area of a 9.7-inch tablet like the iPad. Seven inches cuts down on the number of elements you can put on screen and would only work if you could make your own fingers smaller, Jobs said.

"It's meaningless [to go to seven inches] unless your tablet also includes sandpaper, so that the user can sand down their fingers to around one quarter of their present size," he said.

He saw efforts to shrink tablets down to pocket size, such as the five-inch Dell Streak and seven-inch Galaxy Tab, as being ineffective partly because many already have iPhones and iPods that fit better. About 10 inches was the "minimum" for a good tablet experience, the CEO explained. Many of these companies were going to produce tablets that were "dead on arrival" and would have to come back later with 10-inch models.

The smaller tablets don't have cost advantages even when they have reduced features, he added. Apple's integration meant it could keep the iPad's price down where others had to buy through middlemen that raised the costs.

Jobs took additional time to single out Android.

There are "zero" apps that are tablet-optimized, he claimed. Flash, an advantage of Android, also wasn't a factor since much of Internet video was now HTML5. Android fragmentation would be an issue as well since developers would have to accommodate different sizes. When even Google was warning against Android 2.2 tablets, that didn't bode well for companies that were ignoring the advice and going ahead anyways, the Apple chief said.

At the same time, he touted Apple's own long-term prospects in the field. Just as Apple won in iPods through "relentless improvement," it could do the same in tablets. He pointed out that iPads were already outselling Macs after two quarters and that it was "not a question of if, but a question of when" tablets were going to bite deeply into the notebook market. Education, and surprisingly business, were seeing very quick uptake, while everyone was helped by familiarity with the iPhone and iPod to get used to the experience.

"The more time passes, the more I'm convinced we've got the tiger by the tail," he said.


Read more: http://www.electronista.com/article....tablet.too.small.android.poor/#ixzz12lRfsijn

 

[Alamaking]

Steve Jobs no eat medicine, spouting nonsense about the whole Appleton integration cycle again? Look at how pitiful Applet was in the 80s and he had to leave the board in disgrace.

Your Mac OS 8 and OS 9 was so internet idiot that you have to rewrite OS X using Unix and you claimed Mac OS to be the "best"

You said PowerPC chip is twice as fast over Intel chip yet all your Mac run on intel chips.

You locked up and closed all your devices in order to held them by the neck and over charge them in maintenance cost using cheap spare parts.

Your iPhone 4 came with manufacturer and design fault and you said all phones will have no signal when hold in a certain manner. In truth, you disregard industry experts advice in your pride.

The industry is pushing for standardised macro-USB charger, yet all your device still uses your own cable.

And many more... too tired to write...

...... and yet Apple overleapt MS as No.1 tech company in the world, i wonder why hor?

 

[Ash007]

Apple have such great commercial, marketing clout that people are emulating their ads to propose in cinemas as well.

<object width="480" height="385"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/XMRBGtyQuXk?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/XMRBGtyQuXk?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="385"></embed></object>

 

[Alamaking]

Steve seems to know what he is talking about. Devices like the IPad is taking over Netbook market mainly coz the Netbook and IPad are actually of similar specs. However if Processing power is needed, the IPad will fall short. It is unlikely that the tablet devices will take over the Laptop market at least not for the next 2-3 yrs

When iPad was launched, I condemned it because i cant do work with it, only to realise Apple actually target iPad for entertainment/educational market, especially for the children and ladies. I do respect Jobs vision in this aspect, i wont be surprise they will come out iPad Pro for heavy users near future

 

[longbow]

I think the business world will be slow to embrace. And corp and Gov is where the money is. As evidenced from Microsoft profits, they are still making a lot of money.

Anyway, great internet cruising but not good for business. Cannot imagine using that touch pad to work with excel spreadsheets.

 

[Ash007]

When iPad was launched, I condemned it because i cant do work with it, only to realise Apple actually target iPad for entertainment/educational market, especially for the children and ladies. I do respect Jobs vision in this aspect, i wont be surprise they will come out iPad Pro for heavy users near future

My friends 2yo used the Ipad really well. Knows how to play/watch video/ open apps. Every time when he sees a glossy screen we would try to touch it and slide on it.