PE BE Post-mortem: How much By-election lessons can we transfer to a GE

[neddy]

Unfortunately, LHL is right to suggest that Singaporeans voters will still want a PAP govt.

WP do not suggest to replace the PAP govt but to give them slaps if they don't listen to the people. This message is what the people want to hear.

Aspiring Singaporeans also see WP as the party of hope who listen to them.



The "money politics" - Spoiling the opposition votes.

KJ RP cost: $45 per voter
DL SDA cost: $95 per voter

It does not work this time. Desmond FAILED as a WP vote spoiler.

KJ has to reform himself, his message and his party to something Singaporeans will feel comfortable voting for.

 

[kingrant]

BE effect makes sense only if there is/are strong contenders to the PAP. e.g. if WP had pulled out and allowed SDP to stand in PE, will there be an upset? I dont think so.

The margin is impressive and stunned many pundits. I venture to guess that the BE helps to bring the margins closer, then the WP's brand name helps it to pull away from PAP. Finally, the likeable, affable and very personable persona in LLL imho must have given the extra oomph to 13%! It didnt help that KPK was only weeks old in PE and has a quirky look and even weirder poverty story.

 

[neddy]

I am watching this from Australia so my points may be covered somewhere.
I only have access to internet & Channel News Asia from this ISP http://www.tpg.com.au/iptv/index.php
So, bear with me if the points are repeated by someone living in Singapore.




Yes the image of a hardworking WP candidate and how she genuinely want to reach out to voters.

Dr Koh cannot match that. PAP made a mistake of parachuting someone down to PE, and his inexperience in answering questions showed up.

WP brought up the issues that concerns the people and their rallies have a "feel-good" factor to the voters that put voters to ease in putting a X in their box. It is more important that their MPs are seen as hardworking underdogs that are chopping off the legs of the high throne of PAP bit by bit.


Loong in his hour speech also convey a message of someone comfortable in the status quo. A lot of question marks are threw up at his holes-ridden speech.

Eg
1. The threat of division in society. PAP started it with their elitism and people found out that "You know what is best for you" does not solve their problems. Then, there is the FT issue which is dividing what the ruling party wants and what the people want. Loong need to be slapped out of this comfort zone for change.

2. Using Hong Kong as an example is a bad choice. Hong Kongers have weekly mass protests over housing and other bread/butter issues, but they do not get to vote for their Chief Exec. Singaporeans are more willing to use their votes to express this unhappiness when there is no impact on who govern Singapore. The BE is a good way to express this.

A bit about HK
Regular protests are a way of expressing their unhappiness of cost of living (HKD is pegged to USD) and a record Housing stress of 13.5 compared to 5.9 for Singapore. (A value of 3 means no housing stress - 3 times annual salary to property price. >5.1 is considered severe housing stress)
(Source : http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf - page 14 and 19)


"Walk the Talk" and effective opposition. KJ needs to realise this. With quality opposition members signing up to WP, he has a long way to go. And stop comparing himself with his father. The people see through this marketing ploy. The people will decide if he can fit the shoes of his father.

 

[Satyr]

LHL is not right to think the people desire a PAP government. They think they NEED a PAP government only because they cannot see how another party can find enough qualified people to form the cabinet. Show them that and they won't see the need. That day will come and the MIW will be the last to recognize it.