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- Jan 25, 2010
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After running around like a headless chicken for 9 days, the PAP is now playing its last psychological card.
They got LHL to apologise for mistakes.
They are now using every means possible to project an image of confidence and strangth.
Having failed with direct intimidation, they are now trying indirect intimidation. Meaning that if you are an opposition supporter, you are a minority. So better be careful and think twice if you want to vote Opposition.
Will the tactic work or will it backfire?
The results of GE 2011 had been decided long before Nomination Day. The crying, apologies and now propoganda add to the politcal theatre. People are however not stupid and can think for their own self interest. The PAP's campaign message resontes with those who are doing well and who are scared to lose what they have got. For those who are not doing well and who are finding daily life a struggle, it is the Opposition message which makes sense. Since the PAP is made up mainly elites, they naturally think most Singaporeans are doing well. It is hard for them to understand that the majority of Singaporeans are not doing well and are in fact struggling through life.
As part of final campaign, we now hear whispers of secret polls and studies which claim to give up to date reading of the ground. If you are a statistician, you will know this is plain impossible. To achive a 95% confidence interval, you need a RANDOM sample of 384. Multiply this across all the GRCs being contested, and you will need thousands of observations. This is especially if you want to go down to the consituiency level.
It is impossible to sample such a large number of people without it being publicly noticed. This is especially given the heightened political awareness during this period. And if it was noticed that the PAP was doing such a poll, you will see this all over the Opposition web sites, especially since political polling is against the law.
Even if the poll was conducted, there is still the time needed to enter the data and tabulate up the results. Given the short time frame involved, it is logistically impossible to get this done.
More so if fgds or focus group discussions are involved. A FGD involving 10 to 15people takes about an hour to conduct. The result is mainly qualitative and it will take an analyst about a day to do a decent report on 1 group. Multiply by all the areas contested and we again have something which is logistically impossible.
Which leaves us with the PAP's kopitiam research. This is your large group of grassroots people who fan out and attempt to get feedback on what is happening on the gound. It is imperfect, biased and wldly inaccurate.
What's worse is that the grassroots is dominated by the pre-65 group. Hence SM's comment that he is not able to feel the young. This is because his grassroot of old timers cannot connect with the P65 generation which has been showing up in large numbers at the opposition rallies.
The honest truth therefore is that the PAP doesn't have anymore secret or advanced knowledge of what the electoral landscape is like after what has been an unprecedented election campaign.
They got LHL to apologise for mistakes.
They are now using every means possible to project an image of confidence and strangth.
Having failed with direct intimidation, they are now trying indirect intimidation. Meaning that if you are an opposition supporter, you are a minority. So better be careful and think twice if you want to vote Opposition.
Will the tactic work or will it backfire?
The results of GE 2011 had been decided long before Nomination Day. The crying, apologies and now propoganda add to the politcal theatre. People are however not stupid and can think for their own self interest. The PAP's campaign message resontes with those who are doing well and who are scared to lose what they have got. For those who are not doing well and who are finding daily life a struggle, it is the Opposition message which makes sense. Since the PAP is made up mainly elites, they naturally think most Singaporeans are doing well. It is hard for them to understand that the majority of Singaporeans are not doing well and are in fact struggling through life.
As part of final campaign, we now hear whispers of secret polls and studies which claim to give up to date reading of the ground. If you are a statistician, you will know this is plain impossible. To achive a 95% confidence interval, you need a RANDOM sample of 384. Multiply this across all the GRCs being contested, and you will need thousands of observations. This is especially if you want to go down to the consituiency level.
It is impossible to sample such a large number of people without it being publicly noticed. This is especially given the heightened political awareness during this period. And if it was noticed that the PAP was doing such a poll, you will see this all over the Opposition web sites, especially since political polling is against the law.
Even if the poll was conducted, there is still the time needed to enter the data and tabulate up the results. Given the short time frame involved, it is logistically impossible to get this done.
More so if fgds or focus group discussions are involved. A FGD involving 10 to 15people takes about an hour to conduct. The result is mainly qualitative and it will take an analyst about a day to do a decent report on 1 group. Multiply by all the areas contested and we again have something which is logistically impossible.
Which leaves us with the PAP's kopitiam research. This is your large group of grassroots people who fan out and attempt to get feedback on what is happening on the gound. It is imperfect, biased and wldly inaccurate.
What's worse is that the grassroots is dominated by the pre-65 group. Hence SM's comment that he is not able to feel the young. This is because his grassroot of old timers cannot connect with the P65 generation which has been showing up in large numbers at the opposition rallies.
The honest truth therefore is that the PAP doesn't have anymore secret or advanced knowledge of what the electoral landscape is like after what has been an unprecedented election campaign.
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