Obama challenges China on G20 stage

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June 27, 2010

by Tangi Quemener
Obama challenges China on G20 stage

US President Barack Obama has launched a stern challenge to China, using the big stage of the G20 summit of world powers to demand Beijing's help in rebalancing the world economy.

The G20 leaders, representing both the world's established economic giants and its dynamic emerging powers, agreed a package of measures to cut deficits, stimulate growth and return stability to financial markets.

But Obama went further than the carefully worded joint statement, using his post-summit press conference to remind China that the United States expects it to allow its currency to rise and to reduce its huge trade surplus.

"My expectation is that they're going to be serious about the policy that they themselves have announced," Obama said Sunday, welcoming China's announcement last week that it will allow more flexibility in the yuan exchange rate.

As the world limps out of the worst recession since the 1930s, American policymakers fear the recovery will revive the one-sided trade across the Pacific in Chinese goods kept cheap by the low level of the yuan.

"After years of taking on too much debt, Americans cannot -- and will not -- borrow and buy the world's way to lasting prosperity," Obama declared, in an implicit swipe at export-led economies such as China.

"No nation should assume its path to prosperity is paved with exports to America. Indeed, I've made it clear that the United States will compete aggressively for the jobs and industries and markets of the future."

"A strong and durable recovery also requires countries not having an undue advantage," Obama said, demanding "currencies that are market-driven."


Despite allowing the yuan to rise to its highest level in five years on the eve of the summit -- in what was seen as a gesture to Washington -- China has insisted that it will not be bullied into relaxing currency controls.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada, the host of the Toronto G20, said China had even insisted that a draft phrase welcoming China's concession be stripped out of the summit final statement before its release.

"It is important to address trade frictions appropriately through dialogue and consultation and under the principle of mutual benefit and common development," Chinese President Hu Jintao said at the summit.

For Beijing, the greatest threat to the world economic recovery is not trade imbalances, but the developed world's attempts to shield its own producers from competition from the emerging economies.

"We must take concrete actions to reject all forms of protectionism and unequivocally advocate and support free trade," Hu said.

The G20 statement, agreed by all the leaders and thick with exemptions and caveats, rejects protectionism and promises that unnamed "surplus economies will undertake reforms to reduce their reliance on external demand."

European leaders -- Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron -- came to the talks calling for fiscal restraint and for a new levy on bank profits.

They made some headway on deficits, but will have to go it alone on the banking tax, as countries like Australia, Canada and India that were spared by the 2008 financial meltdown rejected the proposal out of hand.

The leaders' joint statement, released at the end of two days of talks in Toronto, warned that "failure to implement consolidation where necessary would undermine confidence and hamper growth."

"Reflecting this balance, advanced economies have committed to fiscal plans that will at least halve deficits by 2013 and stabilize or reduce government debt-to-GDP ratios by 2016," it promised.

Some experts warned that Europe?s fiscal austerity plans would also slow growth.

But Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund, was quoted by The New York Times as saying he thought the risks of a new downturn were minimal.

"We don?t forecast any double dip," he said. "Double dip was not discussed at the meeting."

The group exempted Japan and its huge deficit from the pledge and noted that measures should be "tailored to national circumstances."

"Japanese debt levels while much, much higher than the rest of us, are also entirely financed domestically, so there has been some recognition that Japan's targets may be slightly different," explained Harper, the Canadian leader.

For the G20 leaders, the differing agendas reflected in the catch-all final statement was not a weakness, but a recognition of the need for countries with different problems to nurture growth in their own ways.

"The cohesion of the G20 was striking," Harper said at his closing press conference. "We're following different policies but with a single objective; to ensure growth and recovery in a durable and balanced way.

AFP
 
china peasants are so poor, work for 12 hours , 6 days a week so that USA can consume cheap product. and yet, their rich president want to screw china second time.
 
china peasants are so poor, work for 12 hours , 6 days a week so that USA can consume cheap product. and yet, their rich president want to screw china second time.

Of course.
There is no fairness in this world
If they allow china to have their way, how can USA be the strongest nation in the world?

You really trust the communist meh???? Imagine you let them get rich and powerful, what will they do?? Will they just sit in China and stay peaceful???

How many Chinese Aircraft carriers will you see in the oceans??? Will they attack Japan??
 
i hope they attack japan. japan too proud. In 5000 years civilisation, only 100 years japan more advance than china, yet they look down on china.
 
"demands"

what a joke. who the fuck is US

china should dump the Treasuries and let US rot, ungrateful cheebye motherfuckers

fuck them fuck them
 
I think it is all politics. On CNN they say that US got a cold shoulder when they ask all the G8 nation to continue deficit spending to prop up world economy. UK, Germany, France all told US to go fly kite - they instead want to reduce deficit because high public debt is wrecking havoc in EU.

Right now to only country with the ability to deficit spend are the Chinese. Do you think Obama has any strength to impose anything on the Chinese? Chinese have agreed to strengthen Yuan to combat rising inflation. As a huge debtor to the Chinese (Japan's continued ability to buy Treasuries is suspect) there is not much room to talk.

Here is a recent Bloomberg/Businessweel article on the Chinese Bubble. It is not article from biased Falunggong or The Hindu or Dawn that type of news sources. I think WSJ, Bloomberg, Businessweek, Economist tend to be less biased and more credible news outlets.

While i totoally agree that there is a property bubble in large cities; there is also a lot of real demand coupled with rising wages.

Recent strikes at Honda all show that Beijing wants its citizen's wages to increase. Beijing then hopes to blunt wage increases by having better infra which opens up the inner and poorer parts of China (reduce wage imbalance - read that Foxconn is move production to the inner parts of China) and hopefully open coastal cities to more up market products. After all why keep on fighting in low wage regime; that after all does not raise the standard of living for your citizens. If Beijing had wanted, they could have easily put down the strike but they did nothing.

Here is the Bloomberg/Businessweek article dtd Jun 23 2010

By Kathleen Chu

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- China’s housing market is not in a bubble and economic expansion and urbanization will support gains in property prices in the long term, UBS Global Asset Management and ING Real Estate Investment Management said.

Economic growth will underpin the market even amid concern that a bubble has formed in first-tier cities and some second- tier ones, Lijian Chen, head of global real estate for Greater China at UBS Global Asset Management, told a property conference in Singapore yesterday.

The Chinese government has introduced measures to rein in record price gains, including a ban on loans for third-home purchases, higher mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for second homes. Real-estate prices jumped 12.4 percent across 70 cities in May, after a 12.8 percent surge in April that was the most since the data series began in 2005.

“The market is not suffering from a bubble,” said Richard Van Den Berg, managing director at ING Real Estate, a global fund manager with about $87.7 billion of assets. “There are price corrections going to take place in primary cities. In secondary cities, because of government measures, there will be a bit of cooling off, lower volume, and wait and see. In principal, the market is very, very healthy.”

The country’s economy expanded 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in almost three years, boosted by Premier Wen Jiabao’s $586 billion stimulus package. The World Bank, in an economic outlook published June 9, forecast 9.5 percent GDP growth for the year.

Hot Market

“At the end of the day, the real estate market will continue to grow,” said UBS’s Chen. “The economy will grow at 10 percent and that will translate into income growth.”

UBS Global Asset Management, a division of UBS AG, Switzerland’s biggest bank, invested $560 billion in assets as of March 2010.

China overtook Hong Kong as the world’s hottest housing market in the first quarter, with prices rising at more than double the rate of anywhere else, property adviser Knight Frank LLP said June 17.

China’s retail and residential properties remain the top desired investments for the three years ending 2012, according to a survey of 75 investors and fund managers this year by Hong Kong-based Anrev, a non-for-profit organization.

UBS’s and ING’s optimism contrasts with Nomura Holdings Inc. The “bubble” in China’s property market is going to burst very quickly, with prices set to fall as much as 20 percent in the next 12 to 18 months, Sun Mingchun, a Hong Kong-based economist at Nomura, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on June 16.

No Bubble

Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., said the government’s measures are working “by all accounts.” China’s property boom isn’t a bubble because it’s supported by “solid” demand for residential housing, he said in a radio interview from Hong Kong with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance.

There is demand for ING Real Estate’s residential projects in second-tier cities in China, despite the government’s cooling measures, said Van Den Berg. About 20 percent of buyers pay in cash, while the rest will borrow less than half the purchase price, he said.

Affordability and the level of borrowing are supporting second-tier cities, he said.

“Affordability in second-tier cities, not all, but most, is still extremely healthy, where you see between 20 to 30 percent of people’s disposable income is utilized for paying a mortgage,” he said, citing ING Real Estate’s research. “Leverage in China across the board is very low. The risk in regards to people not being able to fund their mortgage commitment is not very high. The backdrop is economic growth.”

Medium-Term Promise

While the government’s measures to curb real estate investment have created more uncertainties, there are opportunities in the long term, real estate fund managers such as Grosvenor, RREEF, and Morgan Stanley said at the Real Estate Investment World conference in Singapore.

“China holds a lot of promise in the medium and long term,” said Nicholas Loup, chief executive for the Asia-Pacific region at Grosvenor, an Edinburgh-based privately owned property group.

China is “going to be an attractive market in the long run, but at the moment, it feels a bit over-heated,” said Willem De Geus, a managing director of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investment Management. “Nothing is easy in China.”

While it’s challenging to manage assets in China with some tenants in default, the nation looks more interesting than India because of the size of the economy, said Paul Keogh, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific at RREEF, the real estate investment management business of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, with about $54 billion in assets managed.

China has emerged more rapidly over the last few years,” Keogh said. “From an economic perspective, infrastructure, urbanization, you’ve got GDP growth that’s three times more than what India is on a per-capita basis.”

--With assistance from Joyce Koh in Singapore. Editors: Andreea Papuc, Malcolm Scott.

x JP <EQUITY> x JP <EQUITY> x JP <EQUITY>

To contact the reporters on this story: Kathleen Chu in Tokyo at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andreea Papuc at [email protected]
 
It is a fact, that is clear as daylight. China rode on the US market demand, the European market and configured its entire economy based on export led growth.

But it is evident now, this massive export growth of China in the past decade was powered by huge bubble credit the American consumers were enticed into by the irresponsible actions of the wall street financial institutions and banks.

The financial reforms now put in place by Obama have effectively stopped that flow of easy money out of USA , now and in the future, and with that the export led economic model of China has all but collapsed.

The cheap goods that China made and exported ( poor quality is another issue ), are not unique or vital to any nation who buys them. They can do without these cheap goods, or buy them elsewhere, while on the other hand, the western goods are essential and unavailiable elsewhere, giving other nations with no choice but buy from the West. Example: Airliners, Computers, High end machinenary for oil and other industries.

Sure, China can stop buying US bonds. It can even dump the ones it already have and diminish the value in the process, which would be rather stupid for it to do. No body is forcing it to buy US bonds. On the other hand, China may very well hold onto the ones it have , if it does not want to lose it all. It would be like cutting ones nose to spite one's face.

Sure, the export led growth strategy enabled China to rake up large reserves which it promptly converted to US bonds. But the fact remains that the cheap value of its goods then, was at the expense of huge human suffering and abuse of human rights of the low paid workers in China who toiled for miserably low wages under duress and hardship under the heel of communist party mandarins. Now that the export boom has stopped, factories closed, the workers have started to strike across China. And companies are re-locating to Vietnam, Indonesia and Mexico etc.

The threat that China will dump the US dollars is empty. It has no choice in this regard. Only 6 months ago, the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao literally appealed openly to the US government to protect the value of its hard earned savings that China has placed in US dollar bonds.

Now figure out who is holding who by the balls !!
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Well I seem to see numerous pilgrimages to Beijing by Geithner & Clinton. Even during an official US Treasury trip to India, Geithner made a side trip to China. Geithner withheld release listing the Chinese as currency manipulators.

And then the Chinese literally told the US to keep their financial house in order (i think that was from PM) and that was followed by even more trips and reassurances from Clinton. I think there is no squeezing of anyone's balls here.

No doubt Chinese rely a lot on US imports but US rely a lot on Chinese financing so it is a tight embrace. The 2 countries need each other, financially and politically.

When asked about Obama having burger with Russian President and how friendly they are, Zakaria/CNN said that Russia is no longer significant and that the new player is China. In a way Russia, is an also ran.
 
Well I seem to see numerous pilgrimages to Beijing by Geithner & Clinton. Even during an official US Treasury trip to India, Geithner made a side trip to China. Geithner withheld release listing the Chinese as currency manipulators.

And then the Chinese literally told the US to keep their financial house in order (i think that was from PM) and that was followed by even more trips and reassurances from Clinton. I think there is no squeezing of anyone's balls here.

No doubt Chinese rely a lot on US imports but US rely a lot on Chinese financing so it is a tight embrace. The 2 countries need each other, financially and politically.

When asked about Obama having burger with Russian President and how friendly they are, Zakaria/CNN said that Russia is no longer significant and that the new player is China. In a way Russia, is an also ran.

Why does US need Chinese financing ?

It is overflowing with surplus dollars ! ( Liquidity ), with every nation on earth parking their reserves in US dollars, Japan, Russia included.

The fact of the matter is, it seems the US prevailed on the Chinese to revalue their currency. Which they have done despite all their frequent display of defiance.

The next target is the IPR issue...it seems the Chinese are being told to stop making money out of other people's property..software, movie, and games piracy which is rampant - not is USA but in PRC !

Obama eating burger with the Russian president. what about it ?. Come on,,.striking a personal rapport between two adults is not uncommon.

There is no escaping the fact that the Russians are a closer ally to the USA now than ever before, partly because of the Russian eagerness to identify itself with western cultural affinities.
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