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http://singaporemind.blogspot.sg/2013/02/nsps-paper-on-population-is-actually.html
It is quite amazing that a few days after the population white paper was released, both Minister Khaw and PM Lee, came out to explain that the 6.5-6.9M population figures are not targets but planning figures to ensure we have capacity for a larger population. This is very hard to accept because a large part entire white paper tries to justify these numbers based on the 3-5% GDP growth they aim to achieve on average in the coming years and tries to allay the fears of overcrowding by saying that we will have sufficient space in the future although we are suffering the overcrowdedness now.
"We may never reach that figure. But as planners, we have to ensure that the infrastructure could accommodate such a figure, if need be," - Khaw Boon Wan[Link]
So we are now expected to believe the PAP govt will go on to build a city for 6.9M but will resist the temptation to import people to maximise GDP to fill up this capacity. They wlll plan for 600 people to attend a wedding but invite only 400? In the past it was more like planning for 4M people then letting the population grow to 5M. If that was the intention, why wasn't it clearly stated upfront in the population white paper?
If you want a paper that focuses on the well being of the people rather than GDP, it will put the fertility rate of Singaporeans as a priority over everything else. The NSP has written a pretty good one. The factors that affects the fertility rate such as high cost of living (esp housing), transport, overcrowding, medical care and lack of affordable child care services are also the same factors that has also the quality of life in Singapore. Just as I've pointed out in earlier postings, the NSP paper has also correctly pointed out that today's low TFR and support ratios for the old cannot be used as justification for importing more people.
Higher population density affects fertility. In an earlier posting, I showed that the 3 places with highest population density Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore also have the lowest population density[Link]. The NSP report found more evidence of this. By importing foreigners in such large numbers the PAP govt caused our fertility rate to sink further and now proposes to worsen the problem by importing more people putting Singaporeans in a vicious cycle.
- NSP Population Paper[Link]
One of the major flaws of the govt white paper was its evidence of an ageing workfore and its OADR (old age dependency ratio)computation that excluded the existing non-resident workforce - this gave the impression that our is ageing and cannot support the old. But this is not true once we look at the complete picture:
- NSP Population Paper[Link]
This was a point I made in my earlier posting but the NSP has gone further to work out the numbers to show more concretely that the govt case is flawed.
Importing foreign labor in the past has cause productivity to fall and depressed wages at the lower end. It also caused strains on our infrastructure and our quality of life to deteriorate. Instead of telling us how to get off this unhealthy path of GDP growth, the PAP govt tries harder to justify staying on the same course. You tell me ...is it any surprise that trust in the govt is lost?
It is quite amazing that a few days after the population white paper was released, both Minister Khaw and PM Lee, came out to explain that the 6.5-6.9M population figures are not targets but planning figures to ensure we have capacity for a larger population. This is very hard to accept because a large part entire white paper tries to justify these numbers based on the 3-5% GDP growth they aim to achieve on average in the coming years and tries to allay the fears of overcrowding by saying that we will have sufficient space in the future although we are suffering the overcrowdedness now.
"We may never reach that figure. But as planners, we have to ensure that the infrastructure could accommodate such a figure, if need be," - Khaw Boon Wan[Link]
So we are now expected to believe the PAP govt will go on to build a city for 6.9M but will resist the temptation to import people to maximise GDP to fill up this capacity. They wlll plan for 600 people to attend a wedding but invite only 400? In the past it was more like planning for 4M people then letting the population grow to 5M. If that was the intention, why wasn't it clearly stated upfront in the population white paper?
If you want a paper that focuses on the well being of the people rather than GDP, it will put the fertility rate of Singaporeans as a priority over everything else. The NSP has written a pretty good one. The factors that affects the fertility rate such as high cost of living (esp housing), transport, overcrowding, medical care and lack of affordable child care services are also the same factors that has also the quality of life in Singapore. Just as I've pointed out in earlier postings, the NSP paper has also correctly pointed out that today's low TFR and support ratios for the old cannot be used as justification for importing more people.
Higher population density affects fertility. In an earlier posting, I showed that the 3 places with highest population density Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore also have the lowest population density[Link]. The NSP report found more evidence of this. By importing foreigners in such large numbers the PAP govt caused our fertility rate to sink further and now proposes to worsen the problem by importing more people putting Singaporeans in a vicious cycle.
- NSP Population Paper[Link]
One of the major flaws of the govt white paper was its evidence of an ageing workfore and its OADR (old age dependency ratio)computation that excluded the existing non-resident workforce - this gave the impression that our is ageing and cannot support the old. But this is not true once we look at the complete picture:
- NSP Population Paper[Link]
This was a point I made in my earlier posting but the NSP has gone further to work out the numbers to show more concretely that the govt case is flawed.
Importing foreign labor in the past has cause productivity to fall and depressed wages at the lower end. It also caused strains on our infrastructure and our quality of life to deteriorate. Instead of telling us how to get off this unhealthy path of GDP growth, the PAP govt tries harder to justify staying on the same course. You tell me ...is it any surprise that trust in the govt is lost?
