Metroline London
Comfort DelGro (Comfort) – Q4 FY13 Analysis and Outlook
POSTED ON MARCH 8, 2014 UPDATED ON MAY 24, 2014
The next analysis shall be of Comfort Delgro (Bloomberg – CD:SP, Reuters – CMDG.SI, SGX – C52) Q4 FY13 results. Comfort is part of my watch list stocks for 2014 (
http://feb10capital.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/watch-list-stocks-for-2014/). Comfort is a Singapore based public transportation operator (Bus, Rail, Taxi) with major operations in Singapore, Australia, UK and China.
Personal Disclosure: Currently I do not hold Comfort shares (
http://feb10capital.wordpress.com/2014/02/09/feb10-capital-portfolio-february-2014/) and planning to buy them in next 6months.
Green (Factors that may encourage investors to invest)
Comfort is dominant public transportation provider in Singapore (Taxi, NEL & DownTown MRT, SBS Transit Bus) & has a big presence in major cities of Australia, UK & China. The Comfort taxi fleet in Singapore is more than double that of combined fleet capacity of all other taxi operators and has major presence in china (fleet size of more than 10000) taxi market. Comfort runs metro bus services in London, Melbourne and Sydney.
Attractive yield of 3.5% (At current share price of $1.955) for a blue chip category company.
The company is able to consistently increase Year over Year revenue & profit by mid single digit percentages (5 %- 6%) through growth in market share, acquisitions of newer businesses as well as divestment of unprofitable businesses.
Around 50% of the operating profit is derived from non Singapore operations with well balanced spread among Australia, China & UK. The overseas operations are very profitable as their revenue contribution is 40.5% of overall revenue but contribute around 50% of operating profit (Without forex losses would be even higher).
Except Australia bus business, the company expects to maintain or increase the revenue in every other business. The Singapore market growth prospects are underpinned by growth in business & tourist arrivals, opening of new Downtown metro rail service and government commitment to make public transport as primary mode of transpiration by making it hugely expensive to own a car (New Toyota Camry costs more than USD100K).
The company cash flows are strong with cash & cash equivalents are at $830million. Without inventory & current bank borrowings (payable with in 1 year), the current net cash (Current assets – Current liabilities) stands at around $350 million. On average the company generated positive cash flow of more than $120 million per year for last two financial years. The cash in hand allows the company to acquire new businesses to drive future growth, earnings & share holder returns.
Red (Factors that may restrain investors from investing):
The raise in Singapore staff, repair & maintenance expenses are outpacing the raise in passenger growth & revenue. The rail service is registering operation loss of around $2.5 million per quarter & the bus business margin eroded significantly over the last few years as fares were stagnant. Except taxi segment, the overall public transportation business in Singapore is either in loss or barely profitable (Comfort main competitor, SMRT, is in even more dire status) as the company continue to invest in staff, repair & maintenance to meet high service standard expectations from the public.
Although the recent marginal increase in fare tariffs, government funding towards purchase of buses & opening of downtown line could alleviate some of the expenses, without a major overhaul of tariff formula or operation model, the Singapore rail & bus businesses shall continue to struggle.
As Comfort gets 50% of the operating profit from overseas operations, the profit is highly exposed to variances in currency exchange rates. This is particularly true with respect to Australian dollar (A$) as A$ weakened significantly over the last year as compared to Singapore dollar and at constant currency terms, the FY13 operating profit would have been increased by nearly $5 million (1.2% of FY13 operating profit). Although A$ seems to have stabilized since beginning of FY14, the FY14 profit (as compared to FY13) would continue to be hit by forex translations.
Verdict (My personal opinion & readers should exercise their conscience in making decisions):
Short Term (3 – 6 months): Moderate increase in Q on Q profit
The stabilization of A$, opening of downtown line in Singapore, marginal fare increase in Singapore (takes effect in Q2 FY14) as well as continuos growth in most of the businesses will contribute positively towards Q1 & Q2 FY14 revenue & profit. The growth percentage shall be in the region of mid to high single digits.
Medium Term ( 1 – 2 years): Growth in Q on Q profit.
The public transportation is an essential pillar of any economy & demand is sustainable due to geographic limitations (especially in Singapore), government policies, high cost personal transport maintenance etc. The Comfort would continue to grow revenue & profit in high single digit percentage terms & may even see double digit raise with acquisition of new businesses, favorable exchange rates and/or improved operational efficiency in Singapore.
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