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[h=2]Lim Hng Kiang: We’re not heading for a recession[/h]
October 15th, 2012 |
Author: Editorial
Speaking in Parliament today (15 Oct), Minister for
Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang said Singapore economy is not heading for a
recession and is on track for modest economic growth next year.
This is despite the release of 3Q GDP growth figures by the Ministry of Trade
and Industry (MTI) last Fri (12 Oct) showing a contraction of 1.5% in Singapore
economy in 3Q.
He said that the lacklustre economic growth this year is largely due to the
challenging global economic conditions.
“On the economic growth side, even though the external environment presents
very strong headwinds to Singapore, we expect that we will end the year still
within the range that we forecasted, between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent,” he said.
“And that next year, our growth rate will be below our potential, but we will
still continue to enjoy modest growth, so we can achieve 1.5 to 2.5 per cent
this year, and similar rates next year. So we are not heading to a recession,
technical recession notwithstanding.”
What Mr Lim is saying is that even with a technical recession which is
defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, Singapore can still
achieve a whole year growth of 1.5% to 2.5% this year, according to MTI’s
estimates.
That is because Singapore’s 1Q growth was good. It achieved a GDP growth of
9.5%. But that was the past.
Moving forward, if 4Q’s figure is also negative, then together with 3Q’s
figure of -1.5%, Singapore will officially be confirmed of entering a technical
recession, nevermind about the spectacular 9.5% GDP growth in 1Q.
In fact, if not for MTI’s revision of 2Q GDP growth figure upward from the
original estimate of -0.7% (‘Singapore’s GDP shrinks by 0.7 percent in 2Q‘) to +0.2%,
Singapore would be entering into a technical recession right now with both 2Q
and 3Q’s figures negative.
So, in summary, the economic situation in Singapore 2012 this year:
GDP Growth
1Q: +9.5%
2Q: +0.2% (revised from
-0.7%)
3Q: -1.5%
4Q: ?
Whole year: 1.5%~2.5% (MTI’s estimates)
And Lim Hng Kiang said, “We’re not heading to a recession”.
.
Join our TRE facebook page here: http://www.facebook.com/TREmeritus
.
Speaking in Parliament today (15 Oct), Minister for Trade and Industry Lim Hng Kiang said Singapore economy is not heading for a
recession and is on track for modest economic growth next year.
This is despite the release of 3Q GDP growth figures by the Ministry of Trade
and Industry (MTI) last Fri (12 Oct) showing a contraction of 1.5% in Singapore
economy in 3Q.
He said that the lacklustre economic growth this year is largely due to the
challenging global economic conditions.
“On the economic growth side, even though the external environment presents
very strong headwinds to Singapore, we expect that we will end the year still
within the range that we forecasted, between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent,” he said.
“And that next year, our growth rate will be below our potential, but we will
still continue to enjoy modest growth, so we can achieve 1.5 to 2.5 per cent
this year, and similar rates next year. So we are not heading to a recession,
technical recession notwithstanding.”
What Mr Lim is saying is that even with a technical recession which is
defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, Singapore can still
achieve a whole year growth of 1.5% to 2.5% this year, according to MTI’s
estimates.
That is because Singapore’s 1Q growth was good. It achieved a GDP growth of
9.5%. But that was the past.
Moving forward, if 4Q’s figure is also negative, then together with 3Q’s
figure of -1.5%, Singapore will officially be confirmed of entering a technical
recession, nevermind about the spectacular 9.5% GDP growth in 1Q.
In fact, if not for MTI’s revision of 2Q GDP growth figure upward from the
original estimate of -0.7% (‘Singapore’s GDP shrinks by 0.7 percent in 2Q‘) to +0.2%,
Singapore would be entering into a technical recession right now with both 2Q
and 3Q’s figures negative.
So, in summary, the economic situation in Singapore 2012 this year:
GDP Growth
1Q: +9.5%
2Q: +0.2% (revised from
-0.7%)
3Q: -1.5%
4Q: ?
Whole year: 1.5%~2.5% (MTI’s estimates)
And Lim Hng Kiang said, “We’re not heading to a recession”.
.
Join our TRE facebook page here: http://www.facebook.com/TREmeritus
.
