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The current warmth between Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron may have opened the door to greater co-operation between France and the UK, but the Prime Minister must resist the French president’s ardent desire for the entente amicale to extend to premature recognition of the state of Palestine.
Announcing an annual national day of commemoration for Alfred Dreyfus (the Jewish army captain wrongly imprisoned for treason in 1894) last week, President Macron had the audacity to warn of the “demons of anti-Semitism” while urging his Western allies to join him in entrenching an anti-Israel bias that would supercharge those demons.
It is barely believable that any liberal democracy would think that this could be the moment to reward the terrorist regime and its proxies by recognising the state of Palestine – before any peace deal or path to stability is agreed, and while the region is a tinderbox and the butchers of October 7 2023 are still keeping hostages from their families after the horrendous mass murder and rape of Jewish civilians.
Yet that is precisely what Macron is continuing to press on Sir Keir. The Prime Minister deserves credit for resisting so far. But the fact that France is stepping up the campaign for recognition, rather than stepping back, continuing to lobby the UK and the EU, shows that Starmer must go beyond privately saying “pas encore” to this absurdly damaging suggestion.
To be clear, as a former chairman of Labour Friends of Israel, I am deeply committed to the ultimate goal of two sovereign states, Israel and Palestine, living securely and independently at peace. The alternatives are either a greater Israel with no justice for Palestinians, or the terrorists’ goal of wiping Israel off the map completely. Both are unconscionable.
But it is post-empire arrogance to think that countries such as the UK and France, looking in from the outside, can short-circuit the process by officially recognising Palestine as a state without any agreement between the people who will have to live side by side and make it work.
Announcing recognition like this will not make Starmer and Macron key players in the push for peace. The gesture would do the opposite; it would indefinitely sideline France and Britain from the difficult discussions ahead in the Middle East after many years in which their friendship with Israel had made the countries genuinely influential in this vital area.
The consequence of recognising Palestine now, in the shadow of a conflict triggered by the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, would do more damage than just making the UK seem weak and ineffective on the international stage. It would be seen as Britain rewarding the Islamist terrorists of Hamas and Hezbollah, and bolstering their Iranian puppet masters, who are dedicated to exporting violence and anti-Semitism to undermine our liberal freedoms in the West.
It is wrong to view any international diplomacy through the prism of the impact it will have on the government’s domestic standing with voters. Leaders need to lead on the international stage and act in the UK’s long-term strategic interest, not be buffeted by ever-changing opinion polls on intractable global issues.
So Labour should ignore siren voices urging it to recognise Palestine to win back discontented Muslim voters in communities where the rise of Gaza-focused independent politicians is a genuine electoral threat.
If party strategists are weighing up the domestic impact of any change on Labour’s policy towards Palestine, they must bear in mind that the political backlash will surely outweigh the benefits. The Jewish community in Britain may be relatively small and contain a wide variety of views on Israel-Palestine, but Sir Keir should not underestimate how many British Jews will feel deeply disappointed in him if he makes this gesture on recognition now. Particularly after he has worked so hard to restore trust in Labour after the appalling anti-Semitism that stained the party during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
It is true that many Jews in Britain are dismayed by the increasingly hardline policies of the Netanyahu government and the scale of destruction in Gaza. That does not mean they will accept or forgive a futile diplomatic gesture on recognition that will be treated as a victory by Hamas.
And the domestic blowback of a Labour Government recognising Palestine now will not end there.
The solutions to conflict in the Middle East may not be top of the priority list of many white working-class voters in towns such as Barrow-in-Furness, which I used to represent in the House of Commons.
But sure as hell those Red Wall voters will hate the idea that Labour is being swayed by the crowds they see marching for Gaza, with all the extremism on display in those protests. That is exactly what they will be told by Nigel Farage and his new army of Reform councillors in key electoral battlegrounds if Labour moves its position.
And just as Hamas would be emboldened by the sense their actions have results, so would the organisers of the marches feel their aggressive tactics have been vindicated – encouraging fresh militancy.
Decisions facing leaders on international affairs are often delicately balanced. Prematurely recognising the state of Palestine should not be one of those decisions.
The Prime Minister is showing strength and deft judgment on other security issues, such as Ukraine and the need for rearmament. He should reject this nonsense and sideline anyone around him who is urging him down this path.
