大胜利！大洗牌！大消灭！新冠肺炎万岁！
http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2020-04/26/c_1125907591.htm
坚定信心看大势 底线思维迎挑战——专访国家统计局副局长盛来运
2020-04-26 14:31:09 来源： 新华网
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新华社北京4月26日电 题：坚定信心看大势 底线思维迎挑战——专访国家统计局副局长盛来运
新华社记者陈炜伟
今年一季度极不寻常，突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济社会发展带来前所未有的冲击，国内生产总值等经济指标出现同比下降。如何看待一季度经济指标的波动？如何科学研判疫情影响？如何推动中国经济平稳运行？围绕这些问题，国家统计局副局长盛来运近日接受了新华社记者的专访。
记者：如何看待一季度主要经济指标的波动？
盛来运：近日国家统计局对外发布了一季度经济数据，受疫情冲击影响，一些主要指标明显下滑，国内生产总值同比下降6.8%，有GDP季度核算以来首次出现负增长。对此，社会高度关注。客观看待主要经济指标波动及其所反映的经济形势，我认为有几点应该把握：
第一，新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济社会发展的冲击前所未有，有些是应对疫情必须付出的代价。突如其来的疫情严重打乱了正常的生产生活秩序，导致经济出现一段时间停摆，冲击面和影响程度都是超预期的。一季度GDP同比下降6.8%，这是1992年有GDP季度核算以来最低速度。面对疫情影响，党中央始终把人民生命安全和身体健康放在首位，采取了强有力的疫情防控举措，在较短时间内基本阻断了本土疫情传播，疫情防控形势持续向好。客观上也付出了一定的经济代价，但这些代价是必须付出的，否则会带来更大的经济社会损失。
第二，尽管经济出现下滑，但民生保障有力，经济社会大局稳定。党中央统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展，即使在疫情高峰期，关系国计民生的重要行业并没有停止生产，尤其是与抗疫有关的医疗物资生产能力快速扩张，生活必需品稳定供应，公众的基本生活得到有效保障。一季度，种植业增加值同比增长3.5%，天然气、原油、粗钢产量分别增长9.1%、2.4%和1.2%；3月份，口罩产量同比增长超过6倍，酒精产量增长28.3%。
第三，疫情冲击没有伤及根本，我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变。尽管疫情冲击巨大，但没有伤筋动骨、伤及生产力根本。多年积累的产业体系完整，基础设施条件完好，超大市场规模优势明显，尤其是转型升级趋势确立，新动能发展壮大，在此次疫情冲击下逆势成长。当前我国仍处于工业化城镇化持续推进、信息化农业现代化快速发展阶段，新旧动能转换特征明显，经济迈向高质量发展趋势不可阻挡。这些支撑要素和经济内在向上的长期趋势不会因疫情外在冲击而轻易改变。
第四，生产生活秩序正在加快恢复，彰显我国经济发展韧性。在一系列宏观政策作用下，我国疫情防控向好形势进一步巩固，企业有序复工复产，重大项目扎实推进，经济正在回归常态。国家统计局快速调查显示，截至4月9日，规模以上企业开工率超过90%。3月底重点项目复工率达到90%以上。3月份生产需求指标降幅明显收窄也充分反映经济回升改善态势。当然，经济回升不会一帆风顺，需要持续不懈努力。
记者：中国经济应对冲击的韧性来自哪里？
盛来运：从当前和今后一个时期看，我国经济发展韧性主要来自四个方面：
一是长期积累的雄厚物质基础和完备产业体系。2019年我国国内生产总值接近100万亿元，人均国内生产总值突破1万美元，年末铁路营业里程超过13.9万公里，高铁营业里程超过世界高铁总里程的三分之二，拥有最大规模的信息通信网络，粮食产量连续5年稳定在6.5亿吨以上，外汇储备规模保持在3万亿美元以上，这些都是重要发展基础。另外，我国拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类，生产条件不断改善，具有较强的抵御风险能力。
二是结构调整和动能转换增强了经济运行的协调性稳定性。党的十八大以来，我国产业结构和需求结构调整转型步伐明显加快，三次产业协调发展、三大需求共同发力的格局正在形成。2019年服务业和最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率均超过50%。根据一般规律，人均GDP超过1万美元以后，居民消费升级会带动服务业和消费较快成长。我国人口众多，消费升级方兴未艾，这增强了我们应对外部风险挑战的底气。尤其是在挑战中新动能茁壮成长,增强了推动经济高质量发展的信心。一季度，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值同比增长13.2%，全国网上商品零售额增长5.9%。以新产业新业态新模式为代表的新经济在这次抗疫斗争中发挥了重要作用。
三是精准有效的宏观调控。长期发展中，党和政府不断创新和完善宏观调控，积累了丰富的宏观调控经验。面对疫情影响，党中央统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展，加大宏观政策逆周期调节力度，及时出台阶段性减税降费、增加金融专项贷款和再贷款等一系列政策，推动企业复工复产和生产生活秩序恢复，成效持续显现。
四是集中力量办大事的制度优势。我们有以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导，有全国一盘棋、调动各方面积极性、集中力量办大事的制度优势。疫情面前，党中央加强协调，统一调度，集中力量支援武汉和湖北，由财政托底全力支持患者免费治疗，疫情防控有力有效，充分彰显了中国特色社会主义制度的显著优势。
记者：对比非典和国际金融危机等，此次疫情对中国经济影响有何不同？短期内需要防范哪些风险点？
盛来运：新冠肺炎疫情是新中国成立以来在我国发生的传播速度最快、感染范围最广、防控难度最大的一次重大突发公共卫生事件。对比非典和国际金融危机，此次疫情影响范围更广、冲击程度更深、持续时间更长。具体表现在：一是具有广泛性。疫情对我国各地区、各行业都产生不同程度影响，加之全球疫情大流行，波及范围前所未有。二是具有复杂性。当前国际国内因素叠加共振，生产需求下滑并存，经济循环不畅，就业压力上升，不确定因素显著增多。三是具有持续性。国内疫情防控向好态势进一步巩固，但国际疫情发展对全球经济的巨大冲击还在发展演变，二次冲击的影响在拓展，这给我国经济发展带来新的挑战，对此必须保持清醒的认识。
从近期看，推动经济回归正常轨道，需要关注以下几个问题：一是复工难达产问题突出。快速调查显示，虽然企业复工率较高，但不少企业并没有达产，经济循环不畅，企业生产能力难以有效发挥。二是就业压力上升。3月份，全国城镇调查失业率高于上年同期0.7个百分点，近两成的就业人员处于在职未上班状态。农民工和大学毕业生等重点群体就业压力较大。三是外贸外资发展面临挑战。境外疫情加速扩散蔓延，多国经济出现停摆，世界经济陷入衰退，国际金融和大宗商品市场剧烈波动，我国稳外贸稳外资压力加大。四是企业生产经营和产业链稳定受到冲击。1—2月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降38.3%。上下游、大中小配套企业复工复产进度不平衡，加之境外疫情扩散，产业链“堵点”“断点”增多。对这些问题要高度重视。
记者：如何应对疫情短期冲击、防范化解潜在风险？宏观政策如何更好发力，推动经济平稳运行？
盛来运：面对复杂局面，我们既要坚定信心，看到疫情不会动摇中国经济长期稳定发展的坚实基础和发展趋势，更要坚持底线思维，充分估计困难、风险和不确定性，以更大力度宏观政策对冲疫情影响，防止阶段性冲击演变为趋势性变化。近期中央已经明确了做好经济工作的大政方针和具体决策部署，关键在于抓好落实。我认为理解和贯彻落实中央精神要把握好以下几点：
一是加大宏观政策对冲力度，努力稳住经济基本盘。保持经济社会大局稳定是当前形势下的重中之重，稳定经济基本盘是首要任务。面对经济下行压力和空前的外部冲击，必须加大政策对冲力度，积极的财政政策更加积极有为，稳健的货币政策更加灵活适度，增强宏观政策合力，扎实做好“六稳”工作，扩大有效需求，畅通经济循环，促进经济平稳运行。
二是突出保就业保企业，全力做好“六保”工作。稳是大局，保是关键。只有居民就业、基本民生、市场主体、粮食能源安全、产业链供应链稳定、基层运转保住了，经济社会大局才能稳住。要始终坚持就业优先，有针对性地援企稳岗，做好大学毕业生就业和研究生扩招。更大力度为企业排忧解困，推动上下游企业协同复工复产达产，帮助企业渡过难关。只有企业或市场主体保住了，就业或民生等才能真正保住。
三是持续深化改革开放创新，增强经济内生动力活力。要在稳的前提下积极进取，稳中求进，化危为机，以进促稳。要坚持新发展理念，按照推动高质量发展要求，把解决短期问题和化解长期矛盾相结合，把应对外部挑战和破解内部难题相结合，在深化“放管服”等关键领域改革上下功夫，在更大范围、更宽领域、更深层次上提升开放水平，在加快产业升级发展、培育壮大新经济新动能上久久为功，不断释放发展潜能，推动高质量发展。
四是集中力量打赢脱贫攻坚战，着力补齐全面小康短板。贫困地区和贫困人口是全面建成小康社会最大的短板，打赢脱贫攻坚战是全面建成小康社会的硬任务。新冠肺炎疫情给脱贫攻坚全面收官带来新的挑战，剩余脱贫攻坚任务艰巨，巩固脱贫成果难度加大。越是面临困难越要补齐短板、兜底民生，以更大决心、更强力度推进脱贫攻坚，聚焦产业扶贫、消费扶贫和农民增收等重点环节，推动脱贫攻坚目标保质保量按期完成。
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Big victory! Big shuffle! Great destruction! Long live new pneumonia!
http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2020-04/26/c_1125907591.htm
Firm confidence, look at the general trend, bottom line thinking to meet the challenge-Interview with Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics Sheng Laiyun
2020-04-26 14:31:09 Source: Xinhuanet
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Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 26. Title: Firm confidence, see the big picture. Bottom line thinking meets the challenge-interview with Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics
Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Weiwei
The first quarter of this year is extremely unusual. The sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought an unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development. Economic indicators such as GDP have declined year-on-year. How to treat the fluctuation of economic indicators in the first quarter? How to scientifically judge the impact of epidemic situation? How to promote the stable operation of China's economy? Around these issues, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, recently accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency reporters.
Reporter: How do you view the fluctuation of the main economic indicators in the first quarter?
Sheng Laiyun: Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first quarter. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, some of the main indicators declined significantly. The GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, and there was the first negative growth since the quarterly GDP accounting. In this regard, society is highly concerned. Looking at the fluctuations of the main economic indicators and the economic situation reflected by them objectively, I think there are a few points that should be grasped:
First, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has had an unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development, and some are the price that must be paid to deal with the epidemic. The sudden epidemic severely disrupted the normal production and living order, resulting in a period of economic downtime. The impact and impact levels were beyond expectations. In the first quarter, GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, which was the lowest rate since the quarterly GDP accounting in 1992. Faced with the impact of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee has always put people's lives and health in the first place, and has taken strong measures to prevent and control the epidemic. It has basically blocked the spread of the local epidemic in a short period of time, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control continues to improve. Objectively, it also pays a certain economic price, but these costs must be paid, otherwise it will bring greater economic and social losses.
Second, despite the economic downturn, people's livelihood security is strong and the overall economic and social situation is stable. The Party Central Committee coordinated the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Even in the peak of the epidemic, important industries related to national economy and people's livelihood did not stop production, especially the rapid expansion of the production capacity of medical supplies related to anti-epidemic, stable supply of daily necessities, the basic public Life is effectively guaranteed. In the first quarter, the added value of the planting industry increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the output of natural gas, crude oil, and crude steel increased by 9.1%, 2.4%, and 1.2% respectively; in March, the output of masks increased more than 6 times year-on-year, and the output of alcohol increased by 28.3%.
Third, the impact of the epidemic has not hurt the fundamentals, and the fundamentals of China ’s long-term economic improvement have not changed. Despite the huge impact of the epidemic, it did not hurt the bones and bones, and hurt productivity at all. The industrial system accumulated over the years is complete, the infrastructure conditions are intact, and the advantages of large-scale markets are obvious, especially the trend of transformation and upgrading is established, new kinetic energy is developing and growing, and growing against the trend under the impact of the epidemic. At present, China is still in the stage of continuous industrialization and urbanization and rapid development of informationized agricultural modernization. The characteristics of the conversion of old and new kinetic energy are obvious, and the trend of the economy towards high-quality development is unstoppable. These supporting factors and the long-term upward trend of the economy will not be easily changed by the external impact of the epidemic.
Fourth, the order of production and living is being restored at a faster pace, demonstrating the resilience of China's economic development. Under the effect of a series of macro policies, China's epidemic prevention and control situation has been further consolidated, enterprises have resumed production and production in an orderly manner, major projects have been solidly pushed forward, and the economy is returning to normal. According to a quick survey by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of April 9, the operating rate of enterprises above the designated size exceeded 90%. At the end of March, the resumption rate of key projects reached more than 90%. The apparent narrowing of the decline in production demand indicators in March also fully reflected the economic recovery and improvement. Of course, the economic recovery will not be smooth, and will require continuous and unremitting efforts.
Reporter: Where does the resilience of China's economy respond to shocks come from?
Sheng Laiyun: From the current and future period, the resilience of China's economic development mainly comes from four aspects:
One is the solid material foundation and complete industrial system accumulated over a long period of time. In 2019, China's GDP is close to 100 trillion yuan, the per capita GDP exceeds 10,000 US dollars, the railway operating mileage at the end of the year exceeds 139,000 kilometers, and the operating mileage of high-speed rail exceeds two-thirds of the world's total high-speed rail With information and communication networks, grain output has stabilized at more than 650 million tons for five consecutive years, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves has remained above $ 3 trillion. These are all important development foundations. In addition, China has all the industrial categories in the UN industry classification, production conditions continue to improve, and it has a strong ability to resist risks.
Second, structural adjustment and kinetic energy conversion have enhanced the coordination and stability of economic operations. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the pace of adjustment and transformation of China's industrial structure and demand structure has markedly accelerated. The pattern of coordinated development of the three industries and the joint efforts of the three major demands is taking shape. In 2019, the service industry and final consumption expenditure contributed more than 50% to economic growth. According to the general law, after the per capita GDP exceeds 10,000 US dollars, the upgrade of residents' consumption will drive the rapid growth of the service industry and consumption. Our country has a large population and consumption upgrades are in the ascendant, which strengthens our confidence to respond to external risk challenges. Especially in the challenge, the new kinetic energy thrives and strengthens the confidence to promote high-quality economic development. In the first quarter, the added value of the information transmission, software and information technology service industries increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and the national online retail sales increased by 5.9%. The new economy, represented by new industries, new formats, and new models, played an important role in this fight against epidemics.
The third is precise and effective macro-control. In the long-term development, the party and government have continuously innovated and improved macro-control, and have accumulated rich experience in macro-control. Faced with the impact of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee coordinated the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, intensified the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and issued a series of policies such as periodic tax cuts and fee reductions, and increased financial special loans and re-loans to promote the resumption of business. The resumption of production and the order of production and life were restored, and the results continued to show.
The fourth is the institutional advantage of concentrating on major affairs. We have the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core. We have the national advantage of playing a game of chess, mobilizing all parties in terms of area, and concentrating on major affairs. In front of the epidemic situation, the Party Central Committee strengthened coordination, unified dispatch, concentrated efforts to support Wuhan and Hubei, and fully supported the free treatment of patients with financial support. The epidemic prevention and control were powerful and effective, which fully demonstrated the significant advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.
Reporter: Compared with SARS and the international financial crisis, what is the impact of the epidemic on China's economy? What risk points need to be guarded against in the short term?
Sheng Laiyun: The New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic is a major public health emergency that has occurred in China since the founding of New China, with the fastest spread, the widest infection range, and the most difficult prevention and control. Compared with SARS and the international financial crisis, this epidemic has a wider impact, deeper impact and longer duration. The specific performance is as follows: First, it is extensive. The epidemic has various degrees of impact on various regions and industries in our country. In addition, the global epidemic epidemic has spread to an unprecedented extent. The second is complexity. At present, international and domestic factors have superimposed on resonance, production demand has coexisted, the economic cycle is not smooth, employment pressure is rising, and uncertainties have increased significantly. The third is continuity. The situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control is further consolidated, but the huge impact of the development of the international epidemic on the global economy is still evolving, and the impact of the second shock is expanding. This brings new challenges to China's economic development, and it must be sober understanding.
In the short term, to promote the return of the economy to the normal track, we need to pay attention to the following issues: First, the difficulty of resuming work to achieve production is outstanding. A quick survey shows that although the recovery rate of enterprises is relatively high, many enterprises have not reached production, the economic cycle is not smooth, and the production capacity of enterprises is difficult to exert effectively. The second is rising employment pressure. In March, the unemployment rate surveyed in cities and towns nationwide was 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and nearly 20% of the employed people were not in work. The employment pressure of key groups such as migrant workers and university graduates is greater. Third, the development of foreign trade and foreign capital is facing challenges. The spread of overseas epidemics has accelerated, the economies of many countries have halted, the world economy has fallen into recession, international financial and commodity markets have fluctuated violently, and the pressure on China to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment has increased. Fourth, the enterprise's production and operation and the stability of the industrial chain have been hit. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 38.3% year-on-year. Upstream and downstream, large, medium and small supporting enterprises have unbalanced progress in resuming production and resuming production. In addition, the spread of overseas epidemics has increased the number of "blocking points" and "breakpoints" in the industrial chain. We must attach great importance to these issues.
Reporter: How to deal with the short-term impact of the epidemic and prevent and resolve potential risks? How can macro-policy work better to promote the stable operation of the economy?
Sheng Laiyun: In the face of complex situations, we must not only be confident, but to see that the epidemic will not shake the solid foundation and development trend of China ’s long-term stable development, we must also adhere to the bottom line thinking and fully estimate the difficulties, risks and uncertainties in order to Greater efforts will be made to counteract the impact of the epidemic situation and prevent periodic shocks from becoming trendy changes. Recently, the central government has clarified the major policies and specific decisions for economic work, and the key lies in the implementation. I think we must grasp the following points to understand and implement the spirit of the central government:
The first is to increase the hedging of macro policies and strive to stabilize the economic fundamentals. Maintaining the stability of the overall economic and social situation is the top priority in the current situation, and stabilizing the basic economy is the primary task. Facing downward economic pressure and unprecedented external shocks, we must increase policy hedging, active fiscal policies are more proactive and promising, stable monetary policies are more flexible and appropriate, and we will strengthen macro policy synergy, do a solid job of "six stability" and expand Effective demand, smooth economic cycle, and promote stable operation of the economy.
The second is to highlight job security companies and do our best to "six guarantees". Stability is the overall situation, and security is the key. Only when the employment of residents, basic livelihoods, market players, food and energy security, the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain, and the operation of the grass-roots level are maintained, can the overall economic and social situation be stabilized. We must always adhere to the priority of employment, provide targeted assistance to enterprises and stabilize positions, and do well in the employment of graduates and the expansion of graduate enrollment. Greater efforts will be made to relieve worries for enterprises, and promote upstream and downstream enterprises to coordinate the resumption of production and production to help enterprises overcome difficulties. Only when the enterprise or market subject is retained, can employment or livelihood be truly preserved.
The third is to continue to deepen reform, opening up and innovation, and strengthen the vitality of the economy. We must actively make progress under the premise of stability, seek progress in stability, turn crises into opportunities, and promote stability. We must adhere to the new development concept, combine the solution of short-term problems and the resolution of long-term conflicts in accordance with the requirements of promoting high-quality development, combine the response to external challenges and crack internal problems, and work hard to deepen reforms in key areas such as "decentralization and management". Raise the level of openness on a larger scale, in a wider area, and at a deeper level. It has made long-term contributions to accelerating industrial upgrading and development and cultivating and strengthening the new kinetic energy of the new economy, continuously releasing development potential and promoting high-quality development.
The fourth is to concentrate on winning the tough battle against poverty, and strive to make up for the well-off shortcomings. Poverty-stricken areas and poor people are the biggest shortcomings in building a well-off society in an all-round way, and winning the tough battle against poverty is the hard task of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought new challenges to the overall elimination of poverty alleviation. The remaining poverty alleviation tasks are arduous and it is more difficult to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation. The more we face difficulties, the more we need to make up for the shortcomings and improve people's livelihood, with greater determination and greater efforts to advance poverty alleviation, focus on key links such as industrial poverty alleviation, consumption poverty alleviation and farmers' income increase, and promote the goal of quality and quantity completion of poverty alleviation goals on schedule.
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坚定信心看大势 底线思维迎挑战——专访国家统计局副局长盛来运
2020-04-26 14:31:09 来源： 新华网
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新华社北京4月26日电 题：坚定信心看大势 底线思维迎挑战——专访国家统计局副局长盛来运
新华社记者陈炜伟
今年一季度极不寻常，突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济社会发展带来前所未有的冲击，国内生产总值等经济指标出现同比下降。如何看待一季度经济指标的波动？如何科学研判疫情影响？如何推动中国经济平稳运行？围绕这些问题，国家统计局副局长盛来运近日接受了新华社记者的专访。
记者：如何看待一季度主要经济指标的波动？
盛来运：近日国家统计局对外发布了一季度经济数据，受疫情冲击影响，一些主要指标明显下滑，国内生产总值同比下降6.8%，有GDP季度核算以来首次出现负增长。对此，社会高度关注。客观看待主要经济指标波动及其所反映的经济形势，我认为有几点应该把握：
第一，新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济社会发展的冲击前所未有，有些是应对疫情必须付出的代价。突如其来的疫情严重打乱了正常的生产生活秩序，导致经济出现一段时间停摆，冲击面和影响程度都是超预期的。一季度GDP同比下降6.8%，这是1992年有GDP季度核算以来最低速度。面对疫情影响，党中央始终把人民生命安全和身体健康放在首位，采取了强有力的疫情防控举措，在较短时间内基本阻断了本土疫情传播，疫情防控形势持续向好。客观上也付出了一定的经济代价，但这些代价是必须付出的，否则会带来更大的经济社会损失。
第二，尽管经济出现下滑，但民生保障有力，经济社会大局稳定。党中央统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展，即使在疫情高峰期，关系国计民生的重要行业并没有停止生产，尤其是与抗疫有关的医疗物资生产能力快速扩张，生活必需品稳定供应，公众的基本生活得到有效保障。一季度，种植业增加值同比增长3.5%，天然气、原油、粗钢产量分别增长9.1%、2.4%和1.2%；3月份，口罩产量同比增长超过6倍，酒精产量增长28.3%。
第三，疫情冲击没有伤及根本，我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变。尽管疫情冲击巨大，但没有伤筋动骨、伤及生产力根本。多年积累的产业体系完整，基础设施条件完好，超大市场规模优势明显，尤其是转型升级趋势确立，新动能发展壮大，在此次疫情冲击下逆势成长。当前我国仍处于工业化城镇化持续推进、信息化农业现代化快速发展阶段，新旧动能转换特征明显，经济迈向高质量发展趋势不可阻挡。这些支撑要素和经济内在向上的长期趋势不会因疫情外在冲击而轻易改变。
第四，生产生活秩序正在加快恢复，彰显我国经济发展韧性。在一系列宏观政策作用下，我国疫情防控向好形势进一步巩固，企业有序复工复产，重大项目扎实推进，经济正在回归常态。国家统计局快速调查显示，截至4月9日，规模以上企业开工率超过90%。3月底重点项目复工率达到90%以上。3月份生产需求指标降幅明显收窄也充分反映经济回升改善态势。当然，经济回升不会一帆风顺，需要持续不懈努力。
记者：中国经济应对冲击的韧性来自哪里？
盛来运：从当前和今后一个时期看，我国经济发展韧性主要来自四个方面：
一是长期积累的雄厚物质基础和完备产业体系。2019年我国国内生产总值接近100万亿元，人均国内生产总值突破1万美元，年末铁路营业里程超过13.9万公里，高铁营业里程超过世界高铁总里程的三分之二，拥有最大规模的信息通信网络，粮食产量连续5年稳定在6.5亿吨以上，外汇储备规模保持在3万亿美元以上，这些都是重要发展基础。另外，我国拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类，生产条件不断改善，具有较强的抵御风险能力。
二是结构调整和动能转换增强了经济运行的协调性稳定性。党的十八大以来，我国产业结构和需求结构调整转型步伐明显加快，三次产业协调发展、三大需求共同发力的格局正在形成。2019年服务业和最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率均超过50%。根据一般规律，人均GDP超过1万美元以后，居民消费升级会带动服务业和消费较快成长。我国人口众多，消费升级方兴未艾，这增强了我们应对外部风险挑战的底气。尤其是在挑战中新动能茁壮成长,增强了推动经济高质量发展的信心。一季度，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值同比增长13.2%，全国网上商品零售额增长5.9%。以新产业新业态新模式为代表的新经济在这次抗疫斗争中发挥了重要作用。
三是精准有效的宏观调控。长期发展中，党和政府不断创新和完善宏观调控，积累了丰富的宏观调控经验。面对疫情影响，党中央统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展，加大宏观政策逆周期调节力度，及时出台阶段性减税降费、增加金融专项贷款和再贷款等一系列政策，推动企业复工复产和生产生活秩序恢复，成效持续显现。
四是集中力量办大事的制度优势。我们有以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导，有全国一盘棋、调动各方面积极性、集中力量办大事的制度优势。疫情面前，党中央加强协调，统一调度，集中力量支援武汉和湖北，由财政托底全力支持患者免费治疗，疫情防控有力有效，充分彰显了中国特色社会主义制度的显著优势。
记者：对比非典和国际金融危机等，此次疫情对中国经济影响有何不同？短期内需要防范哪些风险点？
盛来运：新冠肺炎疫情是新中国成立以来在我国发生的传播速度最快、感染范围最广、防控难度最大的一次重大突发公共卫生事件。对比非典和国际金融危机，此次疫情影响范围更广、冲击程度更深、持续时间更长。具体表现在：一是具有广泛性。疫情对我国各地区、各行业都产生不同程度影响，加之全球疫情大流行，波及范围前所未有。二是具有复杂性。当前国际国内因素叠加共振，生产需求下滑并存，经济循环不畅，就业压力上升，不确定因素显著增多。三是具有持续性。国内疫情防控向好态势进一步巩固，但国际疫情发展对全球经济的巨大冲击还在发展演变，二次冲击的影响在拓展，这给我国经济发展带来新的挑战，对此必须保持清醒的认识。
从近期看，推动经济回归正常轨道，需要关注以下几个问题：一是复工难达产问题突出。快速调查显示，虽然企业复工率较高，但不少企业并没有达产，经济循环不畅，企业生产能力难以有效发挥。二是就业压力上升。3月份，全国城镇调查失业率高于上年同期0.7个百分点，近两成的就业人员处于在职未上班状态。农民工和大学毕业生等重点群体就业压力较大。三是外贸外资发展面临挑战。境外疫情加速扩散蔓延，多国经济出现停摆，世界经济陷入衰退，国际金融和大宗商品市场剧烈波动，我国稳外贸稳外资压力加大。四是企业生产经营和产业链稳定受到冲击。1—2月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降38.3%。上下游、大中小配套企业复工复产进度不平衡，加之境外疫情扩散，产业链“堵点”“断点”增多。对这些问题要高度重视。
记者：如何应对疫情短期冲击、防范化解潜在风险？宏观政策如何更好发力，推动经济平稳运行？
盛来运：面对复杂局面，我们既要坚定信心，看到疫情不会动摇中国经济长期稳定发展的坚实基础和发展趋势，更要坚持底线思维，充分估计困难、风险和不确定性，以更大力度宏观政策对冲疫情影响，防止阶段性冲击演变为趋势性变化。近期中央已经明确了做好经济工作的大政方针和具体决策部署，关键在于抓好落实。我认为理解和贯彻落实中央精神要把握好以下几点：
一是加大宏观政策对冲力度，努力稳住经济基本盘。保持经济社会大局稳定是当前形势下的重中之重，稳定经济基本盘是首要任务。面对经济下行压力和空前的外部冲击，必须加大政策对冲力度，积极的财政政策更加积极有为，稳健的货币政策更加灵活适度，增强宏观政策合力，扎实做好“六稳”工作，扩大有效需求，畅通经济循环，促进经济平稳运行。
二是突出保就业保企业，全力做好“六保”工作。稳是大局，保是关键。只有居民就业、基本民生、市场主体、粮食能源安全、产业链供应链稳定、基层运转保住了，经济社会大局才能稳住。要始终坚持就业优先，有针对性地援企稳岗，做好大学毕业生就业和研究生扩招。更大力度为企业排忧解困，推动上下游企业协同复工复产达产，帮助企业渡过难关。只有企业或市场主体保住了，就业或民生等才能真正保住。
三是持续深化改革开放创新，增强经济内生动力活力。要在稳的前提下积极进取，稳中求进，化危为机，以进促稳。要坚持新发展理念，按照推动高质量发展要求，把解决短期问题和化解长期矛盾相结合，把应对外部挑战和破解内部难题相结合，在深化“放管服”等关键领域改革上下功夫，在更大范围、更宽领域、更深层次上提升开放水平，在加快产业升级发展、培育壮大新经济新动能上久久为功，不断释放发展潜能，推动高质量发展。
四是集中力量打赢脱贫攻坚战，着力补齐全面小康短板。贫困地区和贫困人口是全面建成小康社会最大的短板，打赢脱贫攻坚战是全面建成小康社会的硬任务。新冠肺炎疫情给脱贫攻坚全面收官带来新的挑战，剩余脱贫攻坚任务艰巨，巩固脱贫成果难度加大。越是面临困难越要补齐短板、兜底民生，以更大决心、更强力度推进脱贫攻坚，聚焦产业扶贫、消费扶贫和农民增收等重点环节，推动脱贫攻坚目标保质保量按期完成。
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Big victory! Big shuffle! Great destruction! Long live new pneumonia!
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Firm confidence, look at the general trend, bottom line thinking to meet the challenge-Interview with Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics Sheng Laiyun
2020-04-26 14:31:09 Source: Xinhuanet
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Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 26. Title: Firm confidence, see the big picture. Bottom line thinking meets the challenge-interview with Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics
Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Weiwei
The first quarter of this year is extremely unusual. The sudden new coronary pneumonia epidemic has brought an unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development. Economic indicators such as GDP have declined year-on-year. How to treat the fluctuation of economic indicators in the first quarter? How to scientifically judge the impact of epidemic situation? How to promote the stable operation of China's economy? Around these issues, Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, recently accepted an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency reporters.
Reporter: How do you view the fluctuation of the main economic indicators in the first quarter?
Sheng Laiyun: Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released economic data for the first quarter. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, some of the main indicators declined significantly. The GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, and there was the first negative growth since the quarterly GDP accounting. In this regard, society is highly concerned. Looking at the fluctuations of the main economic indicators and the economic situation reflected by them objectively, I think there are a few points that should be grasped:
First, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has had an unprecedented impact on China's economic and social development, and some are the price that must be paid to deal with the epidemic. The sudden epidemic severely disrupted the normal production and living order, resulting in a period of economic downtime. The impact and impact levels were beyond expectations. In the first quarter, GDP fell by 6.8% year-on-year, which was the lowest rate since the quarterly GDP accounting in 1992. Faced with the impact of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee has always put people's lives and health in the first place, and has taken strong measures to prevent and control the epidemic. It has basically blocked the spread of the local epidemic in a short period of time, and the situation of epidemic prevention and control continues to improve. Objectively, it also pays a certain economic price, but these costs must be paid, otherwise it will bring greater economic and social losses.
Second, despite the economic downturn, people's livelihood security is strong and the overall economic and social situation is stable. The Party Central Committee coordinated the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. Even in the peak of the epidemic, important industries related to national economy and people's livelihood did not stop production, especially the rapid expansion of the production capacity of medical supplies related to anti-epidemic, stable supply of daily necessities, the basic public Life is effectively guaranteed. In the first quarter, the added value of the planting industry increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the output of natural gas, crude oil, and crude steel increased by 9.1%, 2.4%, and 1.2% respectively; in March, the output of masks increased more than 6 times year-on-year, and the output of alcohol increased by 28.3%.
Third, the impact of the epidemic has not hurt the fundamentals, and the fundamentals of China ’s long-term economic improvement have not changed. Despite the huge impact of the epidemic, it did not hurt the bones and bones, and hurt productivity at all. The industrial system accumulated over the years is complete, the infrastructure conditions are intact, and the advantages of large-scale markets are obvious, especially the trend of transformation and upgrading is established, new kinetic energy is developing and growing, and growing against the trend under the impact of the epidemic. At present, China is still in the stage of continuous industrialization and urbanization and rapid development of informationized agricultural modernization. The characteristics of the conversion of old and new kinetic energy are obvious, and the trend of the economy towards high-quality development is unstoppable. These supporting factors and the long-term upward trend of the economy will not be easily changed by the external impact of the epidemic.
Fourth, the order of production and living is being restored at a faster pace, demonstrating the resilience of China's economic development. Under the effect of a series of macro policies, China's epidemic prevention and control situation has been further consolidated, enterprises have resumed production and production in an orderly manner, major projects have been solidly pushed forward, and the economy is returning to normal. According to a quick survey by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of April 9, the operating rate of enterprises above the designated size exceeded 90%. At the end of March, the resumption rate of key projects reached more than 90%. The apparent narrowing of the decline in production demand indicators in March also fully reflected the economic recovery and improvement. Of course, the economic recovery will not be smooth, and will require continuous and unremitting efforts.
Reporter: Where does the resilience of China's economy respond to shocks come from?
Sheng Laiyun: From the current and future period, the resilience of China's economic development mainly comes from four aspects:
One is the solid material foundation and complete industrial system accumulated over a long period of time. In 2019, China's GDP is close to 100 trillion yuan, the per capita GDP exceeds 10,000 US dollars, the railway operating mileage at the end of the year exceeds 139,000 kilometers, and the operating mileage of high-speed rail exceeds two-thirds of the world's total high-speed rail With information and communication networks, grain output has stabilized at more than 650 million tons for five consecutive years, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves has remained above $ 3 trillion. These are all important development foundations. In addition, China has all the industrial categories in the UN industry classification, production conditions continue to improve, and it has a strong ability to resist risks.
Second, structural adjustment and kinetic energy conversion have enhanced the coordination and stability of economic operations. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the pace of adjustment and transformation of China's industrial structure and demand structure has markedly accelerated. The pattern of coordinated development of the three industries and the joint efforts of the three major demands is taking shape. In 2019, the service industry and final consumption expenditure contributed more than 50% to economic growth. According to the general law, after the per capita GDP exceeds 10,000 US dollars, the upgrade of residents' consumption will drive the rapid growth of the service industry and consumption. Our country has a large population and consumption upgrades are in the ascendant, which strengthens our confidence to respond to external risk challenges. Especially in the challenge, the new kinetic energy thrives and strengthens the confidence to promote high-quality economic development. In the first quarter, the added value of the information transmission, software and information technology service industries increased by 13.2% year-on-year, and the national online retail sales increased by 5.9%. The new economy, represented by new industries, new formats, and new models, played an important role in this fight against epidemics.
The third is precise and effective macro-control. In the long-term development, the party and government have continuously innovated and improved macro-control, and have accumulated rich experience in macro-control. Faced with the impact of the epidemic, the Party Central Committee coordinated the promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, intensified the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and issued a series of policies such as periodic tax cuts and fee reductions, and increased financial special loans and re-loans to promote the resumption of business. The resumption of production and the order of production and life were restored, and the results continued to show.
The fourth is the institutional advantage of concentrating on major affairs. We have the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core. We have the national advantage of playing a game of chess, mobilizing all parties in terms of area, and concentrating on major affairs. In front of the epidemic situation, the Party Central Committee strengthened coordination, unified dispatch, concentrated efforts to support Wuhan and Hubei, and fully supported the free treatment of patients with financial support. The epidemic prevention and control were powerful and effective, which fully demonstrated the significant advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.
Reporter: Compared with SARS and the international financial crisis, what is the impact of the epidemic on China's economy? What risk points need to be guarded against in the short term?
Sheng Laiyun: The New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic is a major public health emergency that has occurred in China since the founding of New China, with the fastest spread, the widest infection range, and the most difficult prevention and control. Compared with SARS and the international financial crisis, this epidemic has a wider impact, deeper impact and longer duration. The specific performance is as follows: First, it is extensive. The epidemic has various degrees of impact on various regions and industries in our country. In addition, the global epidemic epidemic has spread to an unprecedented extent. The second is complexity. At present, international and domestic factors have superimposed on resonance, production demand has coexisted, the economic cycle is not smooth, employment pressure is rising, and uncertainties have increased significantly. The third is continuity. The situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control is further consolidated, but the huge impact of the development of the international epidemic on the global economy is still evolving, and the impact of the second shock is expanding. This brings new challenges to China's economic development, and it must be sober understanding.
In the short term, to promote the return of the economy to the normal track, we need to pay attention to the following issues: First, the difficulty of resuming work to achieve production is outstanding. A quick survey shows that although the recovery rate of enterprises is relatively high, many enterprises have not reached production, the economic cycle is not smooth, and the production capacity of enterprises is difficult to exert effectively. The second is rising employment pressure. In March, the unemployment rate surveyed in cities and towns nationwide was 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and nearly 20% of the employed people were not in work. The employment pressure of key groups such as migrant workers and university graduates is greater. Third, the development of foreign trade and foreign capital is facing challenges. The spread of overseas epidemics has accelerated, the economies of many countries have halted, the world economy has fallen into recession, international financial and commodity markets have fluctuated violently, and the pressure on China to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment has increased. Fourth, the enterprise's production and operation and the stability of the industrial chain have been hit. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 38.3% year-on-year. Upstream and downstream, large, medium and small supporting enterprises have unbalanced progress in resuming production and resuming production. In addition, the spread of overseas epidemics has increased the number of "blocking points" and "breakpoints" in the industrial chain. We must attach great importance to these issues.
Reporter: How to deal with the short-term impact of the epidemic and prevent and resolve potential risks? How can macro-policy work better to promote the stable operation of the economy?
Sheng Laiyun: In the face of complex situations, we must not only be confident, but to see that the epidemic will not shake the solid foundation and development trend of China ’s long-term stable development, we must also adhere to the bottom line thinking and fully estimate the difficulties, risks and uncertainties in order to Greater efforts will be made to counteract the impact of the epidemic situation and prevent periodic shocks from becoming trendy changes. Recently, the central government has clarified the major policies and specific decisions for economic work, and the key lies in the implementation. I think we must grasp the following points to understand and implement the spirit of the central government:
The first is to increase the hedging of macro policies and strive to stabilize the economic fundamentals. Maintaining the stability of the overall economic and social situation is the top priority in the current situation, and stabilizing the basic economy is the primary task. Facing downward economic pressure and unprecedented external shocks, we must increase policy hedging, active fiscal policies are more proactive and promising, stable monetary policies are more flexible and appropriate, and we will strengthen macro policy synergy, do a solid job of "six stability" and expand Effective demand, smooth economic cycle, and promote stable operation of the economy.
The second is to highlight job security companies and do our best to "six guarantees". Stability is the overall situation, and security is the key. Only when the employment of residents, basic livelihoods, market players, food and energy security, the stability of the supply chain of the industrial chain, and the operation of the grass-roots level are maintained, can the overall economic and social situation be stabilized. We must always adhere to the priority of employment, provide targeted assistance to enterprises and stabilize positions, and do well in the employment of graduates and the expansion of graduate enrollment. Greater efforts will be made to relieve worries for enterprises, and promote upstream and downstream enterprises to coordinate the resumption of production and production to help enterprises overcome difficulties. Only when the enterprise or market subject is retained, can employment or livelihood be truly preserved.
The third is to continue to deepen reform, opening up and innovation, and strengthen the vitality of the economy. We must actively make progress under the premise of stability, seek progress in stability, turn crises into opportunities, and promote stability. We must adhere to the new development concept, combine the solution of short-term problems and the resolution of long-term conflicts in accordance with the requirements of promoting high-quality development, combine the response to external challenges and crack internal problems, and work hard to deepen reforms in key areas such as "decentralization and management". Raise the level of openness on a larger scale, in a wider area, and at a deeper level. It has made long-term contributions to accelerating industrial upgrading and development and cultivating and strengthening the new kinetic energy of the new economy, continuously releasing development potential and promoting high-quality development.
The fourth is to concentrate on winning the tough battle against poverty, and strive to make up for the well-off shortcomings. Poverty-stricken areas and poor people are the biggest shortcomings in building a well-off society in an all-round way, and winning the tough battle against poverty is the hard task of building a well-off society in an all-round way. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought new challenges to the overall elimination of poverty alleviation. The remaining poverty alleviation tasks are arduous and it is more difficult to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation. The more we face difficulties, the more we need to make up for the shortcomings and improve people's livelihood, with greater determination and greater efforts to advance poverty alleviation, focus on key links such as industrial poverty alleviation, consumption poverty alleviation and farmers' income increase, and promote the goal of quality and quantity completion of poverty alleviation goals on schedule.
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