Hopes run high for NLD poll win - Myanmar

[Muthukali]

YANGON - Optimism is running high for the National League for Democracy (NLD) over the possibility of its iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi winning the by-election on Sunday.

Conversations among the people are now all about how soon and how much the opposition leader could deliver on her party's reform agenda, address problems of poverty and usher in ethnic reconciliation.

Nang Susala, 42, a Shan living in Yangon said she would vote for the NLD and Mrs Suu Kyi as she appreciates her policies and plans.

''She is well-educated. I'm confident that she will lead our country into a better future. Also, I hope that she could build trust with Shan and other nationalities and she will respect our identities,'' said Nang Susala, from Mayangone township, 13km from Yangon city.

Taxis adorned with small NLD small flags can also be commonly seen around Yangon city even though there will be no voting constituencies here.

''Naturally, we have to cover her campaigns on a daily basis. It's an overwhelming moment for Myanmar people to indulge in her presence and her liberty to tour the country,'' said Maung Wuntha, a renowned senior journalist of The People's Age.

Khin Zaw Win, director of an influential development advocacy group Tampadipa Institute, said the feeling in Myanmar is like the Obama-mania in the United States as people were eager to meet and greet ''The Lady'' everywhere, as if this were a general election.

The NLD is contesting for 45 seats out of the 664-member parliament, which was installed by the November 2010 election under the auspice of the military regime.

While more than a hundred international observers are in town to monitor the election, stakeholders inside the country are reasonably sure the process will be credible enough.

''Of course, undesirable things pop up but those irregularities are not substantial, unlike the sham organisation we saw in 2010. After all, a credible election will be a bargaining chip for the government in exchange for an eventual or partial lifting of international sanctions,'' said U Wuntha, also chair of the National Press Award Committee.

He added that there was a strong hope that potential collaboration between the former archrivals NLD and the military government would lead to national reconciliation.

The 67-year-old Wuntha hoped Myanmar would be transformed into a similar pattern to South Africa when democracy replaces authoritarian rule.

Peace advocate Khin Zaw Win, 62, said that the honeymoon period for the NLD and Mrs Suu Kyi with the government might not last very long because the list is long in terms of what they will have to deliver.

The post-Sunday election will usher Myanmar into new, uncertain terrain, said Khin Zaw Win.

''It is a big challenge for the country and for Suu Kyi to translate their conviction into reform measures, to bring about better livelihoods for the impoverished 55 million population and restore a sustainable peace process with the ethnic minority groups.''

Myanmar has been plagued with civil war since its independence in 1948. Over 150,000 refugees remain encamped along the Thai border, not to mention the millions of migrants who have had to find jobs abroad that have not been forthcoming at home.

Khin Zaw Win believes the potential formulation of a coalition government between Mrs Suu Kyi and government could have both positive and undesirable effects for Myanmar's future political landscape.

''Once Suu Kyi is made a cabinet minister, international assistance should gradually flow in. But this will distance and detach her from the NLD and limit her criticisms against her own government,'' said Khin Zaw Win.

U Wuntha agreed that there were unspoken concerns among local intellectuals whether a multi-party system featuring Mrs Suu Kyi's in a dominant role would be allowed to continue, particularly in the context of the next election in 2015.

''No doubt Myanmar is embarking on the right path towards democracy, but how slow or fast will be a challenge. Also, how the ethnic issues will be resolved in a manner that we will not become the next Yugoslavia remains the next question too,'' said the journalist and former NLD candidate elected in the 1990 election.

 

[Muthukali]

Suu Kyi says poll will not be fair

Democracy icon claims violence, irregularities

Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi said Friday that by-elections to be held this weekend would not be completely democratic, sounding a note of caution over her bid for a seat in parliament.

"I don't think we can consider it a genuine free and fair election if we consider what has been happening here over the last few months," the Nobel laureate told a news conference ahead of Sunday's vote.

"While we recognise that even in well-established democracies there are irregularities and misdemeanors when elections take place, what has been happening in this country (is) really beyond what is acceptable for a democratic election," she added.

"Still we are determined to go forward because this is what our people want."

The National League for Democracy (NLD) leader said the polls were boosting people's interest in politics in the country after decades of outright military rule ended last year.

"It is the rising political awareness of our people that we regard as our greatest triumph," she said. "We don't at all regret having taken part."

The polls mark the first time that Suu Kyi -- who has spent most of the past 22 years as a political prisoner -- is standing for a seat in parliament, and she has drawn huge crowds on the campaign trail.

Experts believe the regime wants the pro-democracy leader to win a seat in a parliament dominated by the army and its political allies to burnish its reform credentials and encourage an end to Western sanctions.

But Suu Kyi said that she had no plan to accept a position as minister in the army-backed government if offered a role because under the constitution she would be required to give up her seat in parliament.

"I have no intention of leaving the parliament to which I have tried so hard to get into," she said.

The NLD won a landslide election victory in 1990 but was never allowed to take office.

A 2010 election that swept the army's political allies to power was marred by complaints of cheating and intimidation, as well as the exclusion of Suu Kyi, who was released from years of house arrest just days later.

The NLD has also complained about what it described as "unfair treatment" by the authorities ahead of Sunday's vote.

The party said that people in one village were forced by the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) to attend one of its meetings.

It said that in the constituency of Kawhmu near Yangon, where Suu Kyi is standing, the names of hundreds of dead people were found on the electoral roll, while more than 1,300 valid voters were left off.

President Thein Sein acknowledged in a recent speech that there had been "unnecessary errors" in ballot lists, but said that the authorities were trying to ensure the by-elections will be free and fair.

Since taking office a year ago, Thein Sein has carried out reforms including releasing hundreds of political prisoners, easing media restrictions and welcoming the opposition back into mainstream politics.

Unlike in 2010, the government has invited foreign observers and journalists to witness a vote seen as a major test of its reform credentials.

The number of seats at stake in Sunday's vote is not enough to threaten the ruling party's overwhelming majority in parliament but Suu Kyi described the vote as "a step towards step one in democracy".

She added: "Our opinion is that once we get into parliament we will be able to work towards genuine democratisation."

A gruelling schedule of rallies and speeches has taken its toll on the health of the opposition leader, who cancelled campaigning this week after she fell ill and was put on a drip during a trip to the south.

"I've not been well recently and I'm feeling a little delicate so any difficult questions and I shall faint straight away," she joked to the hundreds of journalists and diplomats who crammed into the grounds of the crumbling mansion where she was locked up by the junta until 2010.

 

[Muthukali]

Myanmar ready to vote

Myanmar holds elections Sunday seen as a key test of the government's commitment to reforms, with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi standing for a seat in parliament for the first time.

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi greets supporters after she reached the constituency where she stands as a candidate in the April 1 parliamentary by-elections in Kawhmu, outside Yangon.

A victory for Suu Kyi would cap a remarkable transformation for the 66-year-old icon of the pro-democracy movement, who spent most of the past 22 years locked up by the generals who ruled the country for decades.

Her National League for Democracy (NLD) party swept to a landslide election victory in 1990 but the junta never recognised the result.

Suu Kyi, who won the Nobel Peace Prize the following year, was not a candidate herself on that occasion because she was under house arrest.

Her party will contest 44 of the 45 seats at stake in Sunday's vote -- not enough to threaten the ruling party's majority, but a seat in parliament would give the opposition leader a chance to shape legislation for the first time.

Observers say the regime wants the pro-democracy leader to win a place in parliament to burnish its reform credentials and smooth the way for an easing of Western sanctions.

A 2010 vote, won by the military's political proxies, was marred by widespread complaints of cheating and the exclusion of Suu Kyi, who was released from seven straight years of house arrest shortly afterwards.

In the run up to this Sunday's by-elections, the NLD complained about irregularities, including alleged intimidation of candidates and the appearance of the names of some dead people on the electoral roll.

"I don't think we can consider it a genuinely free and fair election," the democracy icon told a news conference on Friday.

She said the irregularities were "really beyond what is acceptable for a democratic election" but stopped short of announcing a boycott.

"We are determined to go forward because we think that this is what our people want," Suu Kyi said.

A gruelling schedule of rallies and speeches has taken its toll on the health of the opposition leader, who cancelled campaigning this week after she fell ill and was put on a drip during a visit to the south.

NLD spokesman Nyan Win Saturday said Suu Kyi was "fine" as she travelled to her rural constituency of Kawhmu, about two hours drive from Rangoon, where small groups of people gathered to cheer her arrival.

"She is weak, but we do not need to worry," he said.

Unlike in 2010, the government has invited foreign observers and journalists to witness a vote seen as a major test of its reform credentials.

"This is a crucial moment in Myanmar's history," UN human rights envoy Tomas Ojea Quintana said in a statement ahead of the vote.

"The flawed electoral process of the 2010 national elections, which failed to meet international standards, was a missed opportunity for Myanmar to address its challenges in democratisation. It should not be repeated as Myanmar enters a new and more open era," he added.

After almost half a century of iron-fisted military rule, the junta in March last year handed power to a new government led by President Thein Sein, one of a clutch of former generals who shed their uniforms to contest a 2010 election.

Since then, the reform-minded regime has surprised even its critics with a string of reforms such as releasing hundreds of political prisoners and welcoming the NLD back into mainstream politics.

But the continued existence of political detainees, ongoing fighting between government troops and ethnic rebels and alleged human rights abuses remain major concerns for Western nations which have imposed sanctions on the regime.

 

[Muthukali]

Minor parties confident of seats

SUU KYI'S NLD WARNED NOT TO EXPECT SWEEPING MYANMAR BY-ELECTION VICTORY

YANGON - The alliance of non-NLD parties has predicted Aung San Suu Kyi's group will not achieve a landslide victory in today's by-elections as the international community and the NLD wish.

Less than 30 seats will likely go to the National League for Democracy (NLD), more than 10 should be secured by the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the rest will be taken by some of the other 13 contesting parties, according to Oo Hla Saw, general secretary of the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP).

Today, 150 candidates are running in 45 constituencies. The 45 seats will bring the Hluttaw Parliament, which is 86% controlled by the USDP and the military, to 664 members.

Of the 15 contending parties, 10 forged a collaboration under the banner of the Fraternal Democratic Alliance long before the NLD was registered for the April 1 by-elections, according to Myo Nyunt, general secretary of the Party for Democracy and Peace (PDP).

The RNDP and the PDP, together with the National Democratic Force, Party for Unity and Peace, Chin National Party, Shan Nationalities Democratic Party, Phlone Sqaw Democratic Party, All Mon Regions Democracy Party, Union Democratic Party and Democratic Party (Myanmar), already have 138 seats in the Hluttaw.

Party for Unity and Peace secretary general Tun Shwe conceded the chance of his candidate, Tin Yi, winning over the charismatic Ms Suu Kyi in Kaw-hmu Township was slim, but it was the duty of the alliance and his party to contest the impoverished constituency.

''It's a contest between the pro-military candidate and the Nobel laureate, but we still have to show our presence,'' Tun Shwe said.

''People already know and love her. For a long time, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been amplifying the people's voice,'' the USDP candidate Dr Soe Min, was quoted as saying by Myitmakha News Agency.

''It's like a sport. Two teams compete against each other. Whoever wins, at the end of the day, the two teams can enjoy dinner together. Now she and I are in the same constituency, so that it seems like we have to compete against each other. In fact, she's working for the people, and I'm working for the people, too.''

Reuters quoted Dr Soe Min as saying that Ms Suu Kyi's weak point was her knowledge of Myanmar in theory but not on the ground. He believed his military past was an advantage, but he was also banking on his image as a doctor, appearing on campaign leaflets in a white coat with a stethoscope.

He runs two free clinics, with nursing staff and drugs paid for by his party, Reuters reported.

Dr Soe Min is the youngest candidate in Kaw-hmu while the Alliance has the oldest candidate Tin Yi, 75, who once worked under the U Nu-led party in the early 90s and had a farm and other businesses. Ms Suu Kyi is 67.

Myo Nyunt said the NLD has been too proud to join hands with other political parties.

Oo Hla Saw said the NLD has weak support in ethnic regions and other smaller parties resent her denunciation of political parties' ''betrayal'' for competing in the 2010 election.

Sao Than Myint, treasurer of the Shan Nationalities Democratic Party, said local people loved and respected Mrs Suu Kyi but they knew other candidates better.

''The people are not confident the NLD will represent the interests of the many ethnic groups like the minorities-based parties,'' he said.

 

[Muthukali]

Real test for Myanmar is after the election

Today people in 45 political constituencies in Myanmar will go to the polls to elect their parliamentary representatives, and almost certainly one of these will be Aung San Suu Kyi, representing Kawhmu township in Yangon region for the National League for Democracy (NLD). Her overwhelming personal popularity and the fact that the government desperately needs the legitimacy Mrs Suu Kyi will make an upset almost unimaginable. But while the candidacy of the democracy icon has unsurprisingly dominated media coverage, there are other issues today's by-elections may shed light on.

For starters, the by-elections will be a good test of the overall strength of the NLD across the country. The NLD hopes to win more than 30 of the contested seats, but it will be particularly interesting to see how much support the party has in ethnic areas. A report in today's Spectrum notes that in Shan state ethnic candidates stand a good chance of gaining victory over their NLD counterparts. Voting in three constituencies in northern Kachin state has been postponed because of security considerations.

Today's by-elections will also be a test of the willingness of the government to allow free and fair elections and also its power to ensure them at the local level. Obviously, the ability of the by-elections to provide a marker for the NLD depends on their fairness. NLD candidates in rural areas have complained that they are being followed and intimidated.

Responding to reports of irregularities, Myanmar President Thein Sein acknowledged recently that there had been ''unnecessary errors'', adding that the authorities were trying to ensure the by-elections will be free and fair. But Mrs Suu Kyi on Friday warned that the by-elections would not be completely democratic.

''I don't think we can consider it a genuine free and fair election if we consider what has been happening here over the last few months,'' she said. The comments are indicative of the caution against over-exuberance she has been careful to inject in recent months, along with many others, including a number of Myanmar pro-democracy exiles. As Mrs Suu Kyi has said, the by-elections are ''a step towards step one in democracy''.

While there is real cause for hope, the hard work lies ahead and it is much too soon to know if the military-backed government will allow it to take place. Perhaps the most crucial test for the government is whether it begins on a path of reconciliation with armed ethnic groups and works for inclusion of the country's diverse ethnic population, comprising approximately 135 distinct groups and around 40% of the population.

It is expected that on the top of Mrs Suu Kyi's agenda when she reaches parliament will be an attempt to amend the constitution, which now guarantees that 25% of parliamentary seats be reserved for serving military officers. By some estimates, the military and the military-backed parties control about 84% of parliamentary seats. The 45 seats up for grabs today amount to about 10% of the lower house of parliament.

There has been a lot of debate on whether sanctions in place by Western governments should be lifted at this time. The revival of Myanmar is being fed by the tremendous desire from both inside and outside the country to see it open up at long last and its people enjoy the benefits of a free society. But make no mistake, it is also being fed by a tremendous desire inside and outside the country to take advantage of Myanmar's rich natural resources. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, if they are developed in an environmentally responsible way and the general population shares in the wealth they provide. But it would be a real shame if Myanmar's abundant natural resources were exploited only for the purpose of enriching a small number of people. History shows that this has been the rule rather than the exception in the developing world.

In fact in several countries a richness of resources has been a curse rather than a blessing. The blame for this falls not just on self-serving non-democratic governments, but also on multinational companies which are looking only at the bottom line.

In order to avoid that path Myanmar needs to have a truly functioning democracy in which the participation of local and ethnic groups is guaranteed from the start of any large-scale projects. As Mrs Suu Kyi said recently, countries that wish to see democracy and a free market in Myanmar should not lift sanctions too soon. There should be no rush to development until the basic institutions of participatory democracy are in place.

 

[Muthukali]

Myanmar: live report

0420 GMT: AFP's correspondent Kelly Macnamara reporting from Suu Kyi's constituency of Kawhmu says some of the locals lining up to vote are dressed in traditional Karen ethnic dress.

Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) election observers check a polling station in Yangon on April 1, 2012. In an attempt by the government burnish its reform credentials, foreign observers and journalists have been invited to witness the vote.


"The weather's hot, as it usually is, and it's very, very dry and dusty with a bit of a breeze.

"It was great this morning because people were dressed up in these beautiful costumes in vibrant red and blue in stark contrast to dusty background of the village.

"They were all waiting solemnly for Daw Suu to come out. They seemed proud to be there."

0410 GMT: Before voters gathered at the polls, the National League for Democracy sought to alleviate fears about Suu Kyi?s health.

Suu Kyi has been showing signs of strain. She cancelled campaigning last week after she fell ill and was put on a drip following a gruelling schedule of rallies and speeches across the country.

NLD spokesman Nyan Win said that Suu Kyi was "fine" as she travelled to Kawhmu. "She is weak, but we do not need to worry," he said.

0350 GMT: When Suu Kyi visited a polling station in the rural constituency of Kawhmu, about two hours' drive from Rangoon, she was surrounded by cheering supporters and a mob of local and international journalists.

In an attempt by the government burnish its reform credentials, foreign observers and journalists have been invited to witness the vote.

WELCOME TO AFP'S LIVE REPORT OF THE MYANMAR BY-ELECTIONS THAT ARE SEEN AS A KEY TEST OF THE REGIME?S REFORMS.

We are bringing you live coverage from our correspondents in Myanmar on the landmark by-elections.

Voters began flocking to the polls early on Sunday for the elections, which are expected to sweep opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi into parliament as part of dramatic political reforms.

The polls are the first time in 22 years Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has been allowed to stand for a seat in parliament in the country dominated by the military until last year.

The National League for Democracy party won a landslide victory in an election in 1990 while she was under house arrest, but the ruling junta at the time never recognised the result and she spent much of the next two decades in detention.

 

[Muthukali]

Myanmar opposition claims landmark Suu Kyi win

Myanmar's opposition claimed a historic victory Sunday for pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi in her bid for a seat in parliament, sparking scenes of jubilation among crowds of supporters

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi smiles as she leaves after visiting a polling station in the constituency where she stands as a candidate in Kawhmu. Myanmar's opposition claimed a historic victory for Suu Kyi in her bid for a seat in parliament, sparking scenes of jubilation among crowds of supporters.


Hundreds of people clapped and cheered as a giant screen outside her National League for Democracy (NLD) party headquarters in Rangoon announced the Nobel Peace Prize winner had won a parliamentary seat for the first time.

Some people wept with joy at the news, which if confirmed would mark a stunning turnaround for the former political prisoner, who was locked up by the former junta for most of the past 22 years.

"We have been waiting for this day for a long time. I'm so happy," said NLD supporter Kalyar, who goes by one name.

Suu Kyi won an estimated 99 percent of the votes in Kawhmu constituency, according to NLD official Soe Win, based on the party's own tally. There was no independent confirmation and official results were expected within a week.

The party also claimed it was on course to win all 44 seats it contested in the by-elections, in which a total of 45 seats were at stake -- not enough to threaten the army-backed ruling party's huge majority.

Observers believe Myanmar's new reform-minded quasi-civilian government wanted Suu Kyi to win a place in parliament to burnish its reform credentials and smooth the way for an easing of Western sanctions.

Many of her supporters had earlier waited for hours in searing heat to catch a glimpse of the 66-year-old Suu Kyi, who was running for political office for the first time.

Her main rival in the rural Kawhmu constituency, two hours' drive from Rangoon, was a former military doctor with the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party.

Voters, some in traditional ethnic Karen dress, queued patiently to cast their votes. In stark contrast to life under the junta, many openly expressed their support and affection for "The Lady".

"There's only been one person for us for 20 years," said Tin Zaw Win. "We believe in her and want to vote for her. Almost my whole village will vote for Aunt Suu," he added.

Some people complained that their names were missing from the voter lists, although it was unclear how many were affected.

"I want to vote for Mother Suu but they haven't given me my ballot paper so I'm here to demand it," Zin Min Soe told AFP at a polling station.

"They can't just lose my vote," he said.

The polls were also marred somewhat by allegations of ballot-paper irregularities, notably that wax had been put over the check box for the NLD that could be rubbed off later to cancel the vote.

It was not immediately clear how widespread irregularities were.

"This is happening around the country," NLD spokesman Nyan Win told AFP. "I have sent a complaint letter to the union election commission."

In the run-up to the eagerly awaited vote, the party decried alleged intimidation of candidates and other irregularities.

Suu Kyi said on Friday that the poll could not be considered "a genuinely free and fair election" but stopped short of announcing a boycott.

A 2010 general election, won by the military's political proxies, was plagued by complaints of cheating and the exclusion of Suu Kyi, who was released from seven straight years of house arrest shortly afterwards.

The seats being contested Sunday were made vacant by MPs who joined the government.

The NLD swept to a landslide election victory in 1990, but the generals who ruled the country formerly known as Burma for decades until last year never recognised the result.

A gruelling schedule of rallies and speeches took its toll on the opposition leader, who cancelled campaigning in the week before the vote after she fell ill.

Suu Kyi appeared to have recovered her strength by election day, smiling broadly when she emerged just after dawn from the village house where she was staying in Kawhmu.

After almost half a century of military rule, the junta in March last year handed power to a new government led by President Thein Sein, one of a clutch of former generals who shed their uniforms to contest the 2010 election.

Since then, the regime has surprised even its critics with a string of reforms such as releasing hundreds of political prisoners.

But remaining political detainees, fighting between government troops and ethnic rebels, and alleged human rights abuses remain major concerns for Western nations which have imposed sanctions on the regime.

Unlike in 2010, the government allowed foreign observers and journalists to witness Sunday's polls. More than six million people were eligible to vote.

 

[Muthukali]

Myanmar vote brings hope for people's future

Throngs participate in election for first time

YANGON - From morning to dusk amid Myanmar's searing heat, thousands of people turned out to vote in the country's by-elections yesterday.

Many women dressed up in colourful traditional costumes to exercise their voting right, some took time finding their names on voting lists, while others were excited to see throngs of local and foreign journalists talking to people and observing the poll.

In the evening, volunteer observers and party agents were observing vote counting at each booth.

Thai embassy Charge d'Affaires Kallayana Vipattpumiprates said that in Mandalay, where he and his colleagues from Bangladesh, India, and Japan observed the election, things seemed to be running smoothly.

''The election officials helped voters to find their names. They also assisted the elderly at polling stations. The result at each voting unit will be known within the day _ the same as in 2010,'' said Mr Kallayana, in Pyin Oo Lwin township.

In Yangon Division's Mingalar Thaung Nyunt, 5km from the city, a 41-year-old office worker said it was only her second chance to vote since 1990.

In 2010, she did not feel so enthusiastic as her party of choice, the National League for Decmocracy (NLD), boycotted the election which the government, led by former general Thein Sein, won.

Tin Aung, 33, said he also voted in 2010 but this time, with the NLD participating, Aung San Suu Kyi's party was his choice.

The owner of a snack shop near the office of an NLD candidate said yesterday was a specially busy day as people were flocking to the office, which is opposite a polling booth. Hninn, 35, a medical equipment saleswoman, said she was excited as this was her first election.

While most voters were willing to reveal their choice, some declined, and a few said they did not vote for the NLD.

A 40-year-old housewife said from one of the 32 polling booths in Mingalar Thaung Nyunt that she voted for the Union Solidarity and Development Party as it has helped her community.

Meanwhile, a retired civil servant said he felt encouraged to see the presence of foreign media and observers.

''This election is good for the people and the country which has suffered for a long time,'' said Ohn Myint, 72.

''The poll is more open than the 2010 election. Last time we voted out of fear, now we vote out of freedom.'' But the pensioner cautiously said it has yet to be seen how open Myanmar's general election in 2015 would be.

''I do not doubt the government, but we do not know how the military will respond to the changing situation in the future,'' said Ohn Myint.

Zayar Win, 31, a hotel worker, said yesterday's election was also his first as the NLD did not take part in the 2010 elections.

''The NLD is the family party. Entire families vote for Suu Kyi's party,'' he said. In Mayangone township, 16km from Yangon, a Muslim family said they were excited and happy to see observers.

Myint, 49, a mobile phone shop owner, said she did not vote in 2010 while her daughter Aye, 23, was also a first-time voter. Both voted for the NLD.

Han Su Tin, an NLD party member who showed up at polling stations to observe the balloting, said people were optimistic about the election.

The 23-year-old said young Myanmar people needed to look to the future otherwise there would be no change.

''Things have been unstable in the past several years, but we must get ourselves motivated, or nothing will happen,'' added Han Su Tin.

People line up to vote on Sunday.

 

[Muthukali]

No time to waste

Myanmar presses global energy giants for commitments, saying its reforms are irreversible

Energy officials in Myanmar have warned Western companies that they must act soon or risk missing out on lucrative oil and gas investments in the rapidly reforming country.

Speaking at Yangon's first international oil and gas conference last Thursday, current and former officials of the Ministry of Energy reassured executives from multinationals including General Electric and Honeywell that political and economic reforms were irreversible.

"If you keep staying in wait-and-see mode, I can tell you that you will be too late [to invest]," said U Soe Myint, the recently retired director-general of the state-owned Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE).

The ministry is currently drawing up plans to open bids on nine offshore concessions and an unspecified number of onshore blocks, said an energy official speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Take advantage of the virginity of our country," U Win Maw, MOGE's chief geophysicist, told the more than 300 delegates at last week's conference.

In January, Myanmar agreed on concession deals for 10 offshore blocks in the biggest energy tender in years. These were allocated to companies from East Asia, Russia and Switzerland.

Energy companies from the US and Canada are barred from investing in Myanmar due to economic sanctions imposed by their governments. Arcane foreign investment laws, rigid currency regulations and the negative PR associated with doing business in Myanmar have also prevented companies from the EU and Australia from investing in the country's promising energy sector.

Yesterday's byelection, which was widely expected to result in democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi being elected as a member of parliament, is expected to lead to the removal of western sanctions.

Meanwhile, the government in Nay Pyi Taw is considering a raft of foreign investment and currency reforms designed to tap an expected wave of foreign business interest.

"For a lot of larger companies, Myanmar is very much back on the map," said Andrew Gilholm, head of Asia analysis at Control Risks.

Many foreign companies are still waiting to see how far the reforms will go before deciding whether to invest in Myanmar, he added, as the country shifts from its long-time status as a high-risk market to a positive destination for foreign investment.

Among the most promising sectors of the economy is energy. Myanmar is believed to hold considerable hydrocarbon reserves, although their extent remains unknown with only a handful of foreign companies _ including PTT Exploration and Production, Chevron and Total _ producing so far.

Thailand-based PTTEP has said in the past that it would want to increase its presence in Myanmar and has gone as far as to say that 20-25% of all its resources of oil and gas may come from the country in the years ahead.

The company already has a large presence in Myanmar with more exploration and production likely start soon. PTTEP also has said that it may want its parent company, PTT Plc, to invest in petrochemical plants in Myanmar where demand is likely to rise in the future.

Aside from the investment challenges, the government has acknowledged that infrastructure challenges in Myanmar's energy sector remain substantial.

Much of the country is still off the grid, while almost all its oil and gas pipelines do not meet international standards, said U Tun Thwe, general manager of MOGE's pipeline division.

This has led to high levels of energy wastage in a country that is still woefully deficient when it comes to delivering power to its population of about 57 million people.

The majority of Myanmar's energy comes from hydropower, meaning the national grid suffers from shortages during the dry season between November and April when blackouts become more frequent. In the biggest city Yangon, blackouts remain a daily occurrence even when dam reservoirs are full, due to the huge shortfall in Myanmar's capacity to produce electricity.

Kyaw Zwa Soe Naing, executive engineer at the Ministry of Electric Power (2), said generation capacity was only 1,100 megawatts last year, considerably less than the peak load of 1,533 MW, which represents the highest point of consumption in the country at any one time. And even that figure does not represent the real level of demand for electricity in Myanmar given the huge areas of the country that seek power, but can't access it, officials acknowledge.

By comparison, peak electricity demand in Thailand, with a population of 67 million, is close to 25,000 MW.

Myanmar's electricity deficit also applies to other forms of energy, including liquefied petroleum gas, said James Rockall, managing director of the World LP Gas Association, the umbrella body for the global LP gas industry.

"Current consumption is definitely lower than the latent demand," he said. "But if we had investment in infrastructure, the increase in demand would be rapid."

Vietnam, with a population of around 90 million, consumes 100 times as much liquefied petroleum gas as its fellow Asean member.

"There is no demand because there is no supply [in Myanmar]," added Mr Rockall.

 

[Muthukali]

Suu Kyi hails new era for Burma

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Monday hailed a ``new era'' for Burma and called for political unity after her party swept to victory in elections seen as a test of budding reforms.

The Nobel peace laureate won her first seat in parliament, state media confirmed, saying that her National League for Democracy (NLD) party secured 40 of the 44 seats it contested, according to partial official results.

The dramatic political changes spearheaded by the 66-year-old known fondly as ``The Lady'' were accompanied by the quasi-civilian government's most radical economic reform yet _ an overhaul of the country's complex currency regime.

Supporters, some shedding tears of delight, celebrated into the night after the NLD declared that Suu Kyi _ who was locked up by the former junta for most of the past 22 years _ had secured a seat after Sunday's by-elections.

The veteran activist's election to political office marks the latest sweeping change in the country formerly known as Burma after decades of outright military rule ended last year.

``This is not so much our triumph as a triumph for people who have decided that they must be involved in the political process in this country,'' Suu Kyi said in a victory speech at her party headquarters in Yangon.

``We hope this will be the beginning of a new era.''

Suu Kyi struck a conciliatory tone towards the other political parties as she prepares to take her place in a parliament that will remain dominated by the military and its political allies.

``We hope that all parties that took part in the elections will be in a position to cooperate with us in order to create a genuinely democratic atmosphere in our nation,'' she said.

The NLD said that its own tally showed it had taken at least 43 seats. In total, 45 seats were available.

The Burma government has surprised even its critics over the past year with a string of reforms such as releasing hundreds of political prisoners, but ethnic conflict and alleged rights abuses remain concerns for the West.

The European Union on Monday held out the prospect of further easing sanctions on Burma, while the White House congratulated Suu Kyi and voiced hope that her election would lead to greater reform.

``We will continue to support the ongoing reforms in Burma and look forward to developing a new and cooperative relationship as these go forward,'' said EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is expected to visit the country later this month.

As a lawmaker and opposition leader in parliament, Suu Kyi will have an unprecedented voice in the legislative process, and her party is already looking ahead to the next general election, in 2015.

``Obviously they want to win the next election comprehensively and be able to set up a government in their own right,'' said Trevor Wilson, a Burma expert at the Australian National University.

Observers say the government that took power a year ago needs Suu Kyi in parliament to bolster the legitimacy of its political system and spur an easing of Western sanctions.

As part of moves to modernise an economy left in disarray by decades of military rule and encourage more foreign investment, Burma on Monday moved to revamp its dysfunctional exchange-rate system.

The central bank set a reference rate of 818 kyat to the dollar under its new managed floating exchange rate system, bringing the official rate roughly in line with its value on the black market, where it is widely traded.

Previously the official government rate _ which was widely ignored _ was pegged at around just six kyat to the dollar.

Unlike in the 2010 general elections, the government allowed foreign observers and journalists to witness Sunday's polls, which were to replace lawmakers who gave up their seats to join the government.

In the run-up to the vote, the NLD decried alleged intimidation of candidates and other irregularities, and the party also complained about some problems with ballot sheets on Sunday.

The 2010 poll, won by the military's political proxies, was plagued by complaints of cheating and the exclusion of Suu Kyi, who was released from seven straight years of house arrest shortly afterwards.

Poll observers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with current chair Cambodia said Sunday's eagerly anticipated vote was ``conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner''.

The NLD swept to a landslide election victory in 1990, when Suu Kyi was in detention, but the junta never recognised the result.

 

[Muthukali]

Airlines plot out expansion plans to tap Myanmar rise

As Myanmar is opening up for investment, airlines are mapping out strategic plans to cash in on the surging traffic flows for business and leisure travel.

International carriers including Thailand's Bangkok Airways and Thai AirAsia are looking at raising capacity to Yangon and operating flights directly to other major cities like Mandalay, Bagan and even the new capital Naypyitaw.

Airlines see a potential boom in air travel demand to Myanmar as its political reforms saw opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) win a historic victory in Sunday's by-election.

Business travel is expected to significantly increase, particularly to the commercial city Yangon, as foreign investors, businessmen and executives fly to the resource-rich nation for business opportunities and deals.

Tourist flows to Myanmar, which started to jump the past two years, will continue as Naypyitaw plans to attract 1 million visitors this year, up from 816,369 in 2011 and 791,505 in 2010, according to state figures.

Tour operators specialising in Southeast Asia have been receiving robust demand for Myanmar-bound trips.

Several international airlines, including Cathay Pacific, are pondering using Bangkok as a possible gateway to enter Myanmar, as it has been for years.

All five Myanmar carriers and 16 international airlines operate out of Yangon International Airport, through which about half of foreign visitors arrive and depart the country.

Bangkok Airways is looking at adding more frequencies to its Bangkok-Yangon service, now at two flights a day, while discussing a partnership with Air Bagan to cover more cities such as Bagan and Mandalay.

"We are exploring code-sharing arrangements and looking at the timing to get such a plan off the ground," said Bangkok Airways president Puttipong Prasarttong-Osot.

No-frills carrier Thai AirAsia is pondering the viability of offering incremental service beyond its current two flights a day using the 180-seat A320 jet, which enjoys a high load factor. It is also waiting for approval from Myanmar on a Bangkok-Naypyitaw route.

 

[Muthukali]

NLD must ensure it treads carefully

After winning landslide by-election victories, Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) Party have a mission to keep democracy in Myanmar moving forward rather than seeing a return to military rule.

U Tin Oo, a founding member of the NLD, said although the party will have a relatively small number of seats in the country's parliament, Mrs Suu Kyi will make her presence felt.

"The Lady is not an ordinary lady but a person who stands for liberty, democracy, rights and peace, so her influence will be strong."

Speaking at the NLD's headquarters in Yangon, Tin Oo talked about things to be done starting with revoking all draconian laws including emergency decrees and restrictions on electronic communications.

"They say the country is at peace but they are still sending people to jail without trial using secrecy laws that where designed to protect those in power," said Tin Oo, who was the former commander-in-chief of the armed forces before helping form the NLD in 1988.

The most important thing is judicial reform, said the former general, adding that the NLD would try to seek common ground with other parties.

"We have all provided promises and pledges that people will have equal rights, the right to self-determination. We are going to introduce a real federal state in this country," said Tin Oo, smiling.

He conceded that it would be a long and complicated process but Mrs Suu Kyi could make it happen.

"Together, we can tame the army and make it more civilised. We have to demilitarise and give the people real citizenship," said Tin Oo.

Yet, the NLD poll loss in Shan State to the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy Party sends out a signal that minority issues remain a strong factor in Myanmar politics, not to mention that by-elections in three constituencies in Kachin state were postponed due to the armed conflicts in the northern region.

For local intellectuals, the NLD's triumph is not a surprise after decades of authoritarian control that has resulted in isolation from many other countries.

Gradual and cautious steps towards reform have been laid out and implemented including the dialogue between the military and Mrs Suu Kyi.

Her easy victory in the Sunday by-elections should also be attributed to the reform-minded President Thein Sein, a former infantry commander who served as prime minister in the military junta before being elected head of state in the 2010 general election.

While many young people are upbeat about the winds of change, the older generation is concerned the next step on the path to democracy could be very turbulent as the scale of the victory on Sunday has created a line between two camps _ the democratic forces and the ruling regime.

Also, a range of urgent political, security and economic issues needs addressing in parliament in which Mrs Suu Kyi's party will be the second largest after the pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which has 80% of the seats.

"This vote reflects the Myanmar psyche that when people feel threatened by the ruling power, they pin their hopes upon the NLD and Suu Kyi. In contrast, this [the poll results] is a big setback for the USDP, that can easily lead to a fragile relationship, if not confrontation between democratic forces and those under the grip of the Tatmadaw [military]," said a Yangon-based analyst.

He voiced concern that as people become more impatient and intolerant and pressure the government which should be trying to align with the democratic forces within and outside parliament, the military might feel threatened and retake power in a coup.

"I don't want to see polarisation develop as has happened in Thailand with the red-yellow divide," said the analyst, who requested anonymity.

The chairman of the National Democratic Force (NDF) Party, Than Nyein, shared a similar view. "Every side has its own reason to be happy with the NLD win. Though we didn't get a single seat, the Sunday election is a significant step forward setting a benchmark for the future, and if there is a next election in 2015, it should not be of a lower standard in terms of free and fair polling," he said.

Than Nyein, a former NLD central committee member, said he hoped there would be no coup and that all parties need to make sacrifices, including the NLD.

"We cannot let the young go around shouting and protesting and causing a disturbance as this is not yet a fully-fledged democracy. The moving player, which is now the NLD, must act cautiously and wisely since the main player _ the military _ is sitting still," said the veteran politician, whose party won 16 seats in the 2010 election.

Constitutional amendments which are desired by all democratic parties and strongly backed by Mrs Suu Kyi herself require a three-quarters majority. Any mistakes could unnerve not only the military but the whole bureaucracy which remains largely unwilling to change, another business source said.

 

[singveld]

Re: NLD must ensure it treads carefully

it is a farce

Burma's NLD in parliament 'boycott' over oath

Burma's parliament has convened amid a boycott by the party of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi because of a row over the oath of office for MPs.

The National League for Democracy (NLD) want to swear to "respect", rather than "safeguard" the constitution, which they say is undemocratic.

The 1 April by-elections saw Ms Suu Kyi and 42 NLD members elected as MPs.

Meanwhile, the European Union has agreed to suspend sanctions against Burma for a year, diplomats say.

The constitution was drawn up by Burma's former military junta. It reserves 25% of all seats in parliament for the military.

"Only after the wording in the oath has been changed will we be able to attend the parliament," Ohn Kyaing, NLD spokesperson and newly-elected MP, told BBC Burmese.

The upper house of parliament convened in the morning and the lower house in the afternoon.

The NLD says it is confident the dispute over the parliamentary oath can be settled, says the BBC's Rachel Harvey in Bangkok. But no-one appears to be quite sure how or when.



At the meeting, the EU agreed to suspend sanctions against Burma for a year - with the exception of the arms embargo, diplomats said.

The decision, which was expected, rewards the country's recent reforms. It will go into effect later this week.

The US and Australia have already eased some sanctions on Burma.

"Lifting the sanctions will enable the international organisations, such as us, to get re-engaged," Asian Development Bank managing director Rajat Nag said.

"The challenges are huge and have to be addressed on a very broad front. But it has to start with engagement of the international community."

Burma has embarked on political and economic reform since the transition to a civilian-led government after polls in November 2010 ended nearly 50 years of direct military rule.

The constitution was introduced by the military administration in 2008 as part of that transition. It allocates 25% of seats in both houses of parliament and the state assemblies to the army.

The army and its proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) still hold about 80% of seats in parliament, despite the NLD's recent landslide win in the 1 April by-election. The NLD boycotted the November 2010 polls because of election laws it said was unfair.

Ms Aung San Suu Kyi wants, ultimately, to change the constitution because it enshrines the role of the armed forces in politics, says our correspondent.

But changing the oath may require parliamentary approval which would in turn mean securing the support of the military whose power the NLD wishes to curtail.

A similar change in the wording had to be made to the political registration law in order for the NLD to be able to take part in the latest by-elections. They were the first elections the NLD competed in since 1990.