- Joined
- Jul 16, 2008
- Messages
- 26,495
- Points
- 113
Every time we see the orange + blue rising beyond 10 daily, it means we risk one superspreader among them to light up more hidden cases.
Every time we see the blue shrinking in size, we know we have a wide enough net to reduce the risk of multiple super spreaders lighting more cases, knowingly or unknowingly.
I wish Straits Times will do their case charts properly like MOH so that we can see the trends clearly for:
a) the unlinked cases
b) the unlinked + unquarantined linked
The unlinked are ultimately linked - but once we don’t know the links, we don’t know how many along the way are connecting the unlinked to some known case.
That is the danger of the unlinked, and why we track the trend.
And the linked but not yet quarantined cases tell us 3 things:
1) these are nodes which can be potential superspreaders that we worry about in a Covid pandemic;
2) these are indicators that we have holes and gaps in our contact tracing.
The ratio between the quarantined and unquarantined linked will tell us whether our contact tracing capabilities have been overwhelmed.
And as the contact tracers investigate further, we can expect some of the unlinked cases to pop into the linked but unquarantined bucket too.
So overall, whenever we see more than 10 cases of unlinked plus unquarantined linked, we should presume that we run the risk of hidden superspreader clusters.
And anytime, that goes up to 50~100, we are on the verge of an out of control explosion.
What can we do as members of the public, apart from reducing our physical contacts with others, and not eating out?
Simple.
If we are not yet vaccinated, go get vaccinated.
If we are still waiting for more the 4 weeks for our 2nd shot, go get our 2nd shot early.
If we are already fully vaccinated, ie it is already more than 2 weeks after our 2nd shot, go share with friends and family to persuade our older folks to get vaccinated before it’s too late for them.
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Every time we see the blue shrinking in size, we know we have a wide enough net to reduce the risk of multiple super spreaders lighting more cases, knowingly or unknowingly.
I wish Straits Times will do their case charts properly like MOH so that we can see the trends clearly for:
a) the unlinked cases
b) the unlinked + unquarantined linked
The unlinked are ultimately linked - but once we don’t know the links, we don’t know how many along the way are connecting the unlinked to some known case.
That is the danger of the unlinked, and why we track the trend.
And the linked but not yet quarantined cases tell us 3 things:
1) these are nodes which can be potential superspreaders that we worry about in a Covid pandemic;
2) these are indicators that we have holes and gaps in our contact tracing.
The ratio between the quarantined and unquarantined linked will tell us whether our contact tracing capabilities have been overwhelmed.
And as the contact tracers investigate further, we can expect some of the unlinked cases to pop into the linked but unquarantined bucket too.
So overall, whenever we see more than 10 cases of unlinked plus unquarantined linked, we should presume that we run the risk of hidden superspreader clusters.
And anytime, that goes up to 50~100, we are on the verge of an out of control explosion.
What can we do as members of the public, apart from reducing our physical contacts with others, and not eating out?
Simple.
If we are not yet vaccinated, go get vaccinated.
If we are still waiting for more the 4 weeks for our 2nd shot, go get our 2nd shot early.
If we are already fully vaccinated, ie it is already more than 2 weeks after our 2nd shot, go share with friends and family to persuade our older folks to get vaccinated before it’s too late for them.
====
