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HDB prices can become PAP's political undoing

theDoors

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The Star Online >
Saturday September 15, 2012
The Star Online: Half a century of evolution

Half a century of evolution

INSIGHT DOWN SOUTH BY SEAH CHIANG NEE
[email protected]

The Housing Development Board’s achievements in the 1960s that put the ruling PAP into power can become its political undoing if property price woes are not resolved.

FIFTY years after launching its mass public housing at a few thousand dollars per flat, Singapore last week made the kind of history few people wanted to see.

A resale maisonette from the Housing Development Board (HDB), which still designs homes to help the broad masses, changed hands for a record one million dollars.

In principle, the rising values should have excited Singaporeans since 85% of them are property owners, but instead the news created widespread concern.

In recent years, Singaporeans had grown unhappy with skyrocketing home costs that were aggravated by an inflow of new migrants.

That the pricey apartment was bought by a newly converted citizen from China added to the fear.

Home values have more than doubled over the past decade, putting them out of many Singaporeans’ reach.

Singaporeans expect the apartment sale will set new benchmarks for public housing. Until the million-dollar crossing, several units had been transacted for S$900,000-plus (RM2.3mil-plus), the last being S$980,000 (RM2.5mil) for a Bishan unit.

Buyers, both locals and foreigners, are readier to pay more and more for both private and public properties in anticipation of the government’s continued open-door policy.

A local reporter said: “You can’t inject two million foreigners into this small island without creating a huge demand for homes.”

“(This deal means that) Singaporean-born Singaporeans will soon find themselves pushed out of their homeland by foreigners,” said Patrick.

Others feel HDB prices should not be determined by market forces.

“When the market dictates, this crucial commodity will increasingly move from the hands of the poor to benefit the rich,” said a polytechnic student.

In land-squeezed Singapore, the demand for property will always grow as long as there is growth and stability. Adding to it is the stress caused by the arrival of migrants.

Land, on the other hand, is a finite commodity that rarely increases.

This explains the rising concerns of fresh graduates about being eased out of the market.

The million-dollar furore has prompted National Development Minister Khaw Boon Wan to issue a statement urging Singaporeans not to be “traumatised” by it.

The Penang-born Khaw added: “There will always be units with fantastic views that fetch fantastic prices....”

Since independence 47 years ago, Singapore’s history has been closely linked to the state of the city’s real estate as well as the achievements of the HDB.

Since its establishment in 1960, the HDB has won world acclaim for building more than one million homes and helping to turn a squatter colony into a developed city.

Its work is not just bricks and mortar; it has changed and moulded the lifestyles of millions of people.

Its first apartment was a relatively crude three-room structure sold for S$6,000 (RM6,000 then), a princely sum in an age when per capita GDP was only S$1,310 (RM1,310 then).

Today’s new three-room flat costs about S$340,000 (RM851,644), but the country’s per capita GDP has increased to S$70,450 (RM176,483).

By simple comparison, the hike in public housing prices (at 56.6 times) appears almost comparable with the increase in per capita GDP growth (53.8 times) between 1960 and 2010.

This, however, may be too sweeping since it fails to take into account the rising cost of living and the widening economic gap.

The modern generation of HDB housing is, however, no longer the crude version of the 1960s. Most are ultra-modern in design, albeit slightly smaller in size.

Recently, the biggest impact has been the large influx of middle-class professionals and small businessmen from Malaysia, China and India. And HDB costs have not been spared.

Tan Kin Lian, a failed candidate for the presidential election last year, said in the past when HDB flats were designed to house the poor, a single breadwinner could buy it on a 20-year loan.

Now it has to be financed by a double-income family stretching over 30 years, reflecting its unaffordability, he said.

A naturalised citizen is entitled to buy a cheaper new flat from the HDB, but it would have meant queuing up for several years and ending up with a different unit or location.

Singaporeans are generally not opposed to new citizens buying public flats and enjoying the same rights as locals.

Their anger is directed at the larger body of permanent residents admitted every year and allowed to buy resale flats, adding pressure on prices.

With an independence history of only 47 years, Singapore is like an infant. Occasionally, officials still talk of wanting an enlarged population of six to seven million in 30 years.

“This continuing anticipation of future demand is actually fuelling a reason to invest in property here,” said a real estate agent. “It’s hard for prices to come down short of a recession.”

Currently, Singapore is witnessing the modern version of a new immigration wave hitting the island, proportionately as big if not bigger than earlier ones in the last century.

But this time the arrivals have not come on refugee ships wearing only the shirts on their backs.

Instead they fly in on modern aeroplanes, many of them carrying university degrees and accumulated personal wealth that can pay for Singapore’s expensive properties.

“Many of them know that putting money into property here has little risk,” said the agent.

The million-dollar HDB unit is almost certain to hasten the trend for further hikes. Ironically, it was the HDB’s brilliant achievements in the 1960s that put the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) into power.

Today the new pressures of demand and cost could become its political undoing, if the problem is not resolved.
 
The implicit assumption, in the study is that HDB prices will appreciate/inflate over time, nesting retirees the golden egg when they retire... that is assuming that there is no preceding property bubble when the young Singaporeans bought their HDB.

If the young Singaporeans bought their HDBs at the peak of a property bubble, should the bubble burst, they might be trapped in negative equity, maybe only break even, by the time they retire if they are lucky.

A very good example will be the property bust in Japan in the 90s, after 20 years, those who bought their property are still in negative equity, condemning the old to work beyond their retirement.


Title : Young working S'poreans will have enough CPF savings by retirement: MOM study
By :
Date : 19 September 2012 1237 hrs (SST)
URL : Young working S'poreans will have enough CPF savings by retirement: MOM study - Channel NewsAsia


SINGAPORE: Young Singaporeans in the workforce today will have adequate savings in their Central Provident Fund (CPF) accounts by the time they retire, according to an independent study by the Ministry of Manpower.

Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam shared this finding on Wednesday at the opening of the Singapore Human Capital Summit.

The Central Provident Fund is designed to help Singaporeans save enough for their retirement years.

It also contributes in making home ownership a key pillar of the country's social security system.

Mr Tharman said the CPF is a financially sustainable scheme because it is fully funded and operates on defined principles of contributions.

However, Mr Tharman said the challenge is ensuring CPF savings are able to deliver payouts that are enough for retirement.

The challenge is more so for the lower-income earners. The government reviews the CPF scheme from time to time to ensure it can deliver payouts adequately.

A recent study using the Income Replacement Rate or IRR indicates that Singaporeans are adequately covered.

Pension economists measure retirement adequacy by using an IRR, which is the ratio of retirement monthly income to pre-retirement monthly earnings.

The study found that a median male earner who enters the workforce today will be able to achieve an IRR of over 70 per cent through his CPF savings.

For the female median earner, the equivalent IRR is 63 per cent.

These figures are similar to those of countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The IRR for the median OECD economies is 66 per cent. The World Bank recommends a range of between 53 and 78 per cent.

The rate is significantly higher in Singapore when it takes into account the fact that Singaporeans have their own homes when they retire.

Cash is freed for other living expenses as they do not have to pay rental fees.

For lower-income workers, the IRR is higher -- at about 81 per cent.

With Workfare, which supplements the wages of low-income workers, the IRR is even higher -- at 93 per cent.

Details of the study will be released in the near future.

Economists said many assumptions need to be considered in interpreting the results of the study.

Associate Professor Shandre Thangavelu, from the Economics Department at the National University of Singapore, said: "How much the income is growing over time, and what is the retirement age...It all depends on how the rate of returns when other factors are taken into account. How much extra savings they are going to have from the CPF and paying mortgages and so on... because higher property prices will also absorb more from the CPF itself."


Mr Tharman said the changes made in the CPF scheme over the years have put it on a very firm footing for the future, but employers and employees also have a part to play in ensuring financial stability.

"But no matter how we design the CPF scheme, retirement adequacy is still premised on individual responsibility and good jobs during working lives," said Mr Tharman.

"It requires that we work and save for an adequate retirement nest egg and it requires that employers take responsibility for providing ordinary working people with good jobs."

Mr Tharman said the results of the findings are important and the government will continue to review the CPF scheme.

But it is also important to keep an eye on the needs of the older generation of Singaporeans who may not have enough runway to benefit from the changes made to the CPF system over the years.

Mr Tharman noted that many older Singaporeans have low CPF balances and are unable to achieve the IRR that the study has found. Wages were much lower in the past and these older Singaporeans were required to set aside less in their CPF Retirement Account. They were allowed to use much of their CPF savings for housing.

However, most of them have also experienced substantial appreciation in value of the homes that they own, made possible by government housing subsidies, their earlier withdrawals of CPF savings, and economic growth.


"Our strategy is to help them monetise the values of their homes in retirement, if they wish to," said Mr Tharman.

- CNA/xq/cc/ir
 
The delusion that afflicted Americans: the notion that housing prices always rise.

Robert Shiller, of Yale University, probably the foremost authority on real estate in America, has studied data going back a century, and says that when you factor in inflation, and depreciation of the home's physical structure, "historically home prices haven't
gone up. Real home prices were essentially unchanged over that interval."

Shiller says real estate bubbles are nothing more than groupthink, and that they "always have their end built into them."

"People are investing in real estate that is tough for their budgets because they think it will make them rich, and that can continue only as long as [prices] keep increasing.

"When they stop increasing," he says, people back off, and the bubble then collapses. "So it has its own internal dynamic."

Shiller also points out that it was not the financial crisis that burst the American housing bubble. Rather, when the groupthink that caused the bubble turned, the market collapsed, and that in turn triggered the financial meltdown and the crisis among lenders.
 
Stupid sinkees are HDB flat asset rich but cash poor and they happy like fark. Stupid people who never think that their children will not be able to afford to buy HDB flat.Stupid sinkees do not deserve any pity.They deserved to be chopped on the chopping board .
 
Stupid sinkees are HDB flat asset rich but cash poor and they happy like fark. Stupid people who never think that their children will not be able to afford to buy HDB flat.Stupid sinkees do not deserve any pity.They deserved to be chopped on the chopping board .

agree! stupid sinkies
 
Two forces seem to be driving them higher and higher..one is the fact that land space is scarce. The second is the notion that the PAP govt is always there to prevent it from falling or crashing.
 
TS, you have a very good and serious point.
Even the PAP knows this.. which is why they came up with cooling measures jus a while back.
But is it working?
Somehow they have lost all understanding of how to deal with the current situation on cases like rising HDB prices (whether buying from HDB or resale), rising living costs, and massive flooding of foreigners into SG.

They at first said that SG needed foreigners.. but now.. with productivity figures dipping.. they may have to eat their words on the "importance" of foreigners and what contributions foreigners have for SG's society and economy.

Local SG now look at HDB prices and have cold sweat.. they can't even think ahead and ask how their children can sfford.. because THEY can't even afford most of the apartments now.
 
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