Source: TR EMERITUS
Government by Coalition
September 9th, 2014 | Author: Contributions
Change We Must, the strident call to end one-party political domination and introduce necessary checks and balance on the government, engendered an instinctive appeal for coalitions among citizens. Coalitions are seen to deliver the necessary consensus and compromise necessary for a more equitable approach to governance. A companion piece to (http://www.tremeritus.com/2014/09/06/pap-shifted-ever-so-slightly/) this article is a brief look at coalition governments and how it might take place in Singapore.
Coalitions Everywhere
With the demise of communism, politics in the liberal democracies from the early 1990s was expected to move inexorably to the right. Surprisingly, coalition government proliferated instead with most of the liberal democracies now governed by coalitions.
Two or more parties may decide to form a coalition to contest an election. A victory for them results in a coalition government, e.g. Denmark and Sweden. Often parties contest an election individually and after an election failed to deliver an outright majority, two or more parties agreed to form a coalition government, e.g. Germany and UK. Rarely, a party winning an outright majority may invite a smaller party to govern in coalition as a gesture to national unity, e.g. Japan.
Pros and cons of coalition
Advocates of coalition government assert that it leads to more consensus-based politics which better reflect the diverse opinions of the electorate. It is also seen to avoid the bitter left right divisions of the past. Those who are against, argued that coalitions tends to be fractious and prone to disunity because coalitions by necessity comprised different parties with different ideas and beliefs, making agreement on particularly contentious policies difficult.
In the writer’s measured opinion, there should not be significant obstacles in the formation of a coalition by the opposition parties. The PAP with its extreme pro-business policies, its draconian controls over the media and free speech and its false “self-reliance” ideology, is entrenched firmly on the right of the political spectrum. All opposition parties are campaigning on a retrograde of PAP policies to craft far more equitable policies, i.e. a move to the centre-right or centre. As such, there ought not to be major philosophical or political differences among the WP, SDP, SPP, DPP, RP and SFP. This really begs the question why the need for so many opposition parties. Perhaps, too many wannabe kings and kingmakers but the absence of sharp political divisions does help the cause for coalitions.
PAP Majority Coalition
The most likely outcome in the 2016 election is a reduced majority for the ruling party. The PAP can go alone but may want a show (wayang?) of national unity and invite one or more opposition parties into government, much like the current LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan. The co-drivers do not have much bargaining power since the PAP does not really need them. It would also be a naive suggestion that this is a good approach for the PAP to “instruct” the co-drivers on the practicalities of government. The PAP is in no mood to “teach” the co-drivers, more likely to deflect blame onto them. The opposition should consider very carefully because they may be painted with the same brush for policy failures.
PAP failed to achieve a majority
Anything can happen in politics if voters are angry enough. In such a scenario, the PAP is still likely to hold the largest amount of seats but short of a majority cannot form a government on its own. None of the opposition can be the largest party because none of them are able or plan to contest every constituency.
PAP-led Coalition
This is where it is necessary for the opposition to form at least a loose coalition before contesting the 2016 election. Being the largest party, albeit short of majority, the PAP has the first call to form a coalition government. If a pre-election opposition coalition did not exist, 1 or 2 of the opposition parties with the necessary seats may be tempted to join a PAP-led coalition but in this scenario, these co-drivers have a strong bargaining position since the PAP absolutely needs them.
Multi-party Coalition
If a pre-election coalition existed and unity held, the PAP will not be able to form a government which then open the way for the pre-election coalition of opposition parties to form the next government. For the cause of alternative politics, the coalition needs to hold unity throughout a Parliamentary term.
PAP Minority Government
If a pre-election coalition did not exist, an alternate strategy for the opposition parties should be to let the PAP form a minority government. This forces the PAP to negotiate with the relevant opposition parties for every legislation which then allow compromises to be extracted from the PAP. For example, in return for voting the budget, the opposition ought to demand the Official Secrets Act to be lifted from the SG reserves so their effects on the budget can be finally be independently analysed.
Ready for coalitions?
Chris K
* Chris K holds a senior position in a global financial centre bigger than Singapore. He writes mostly on economic and financial matters to highlight misconceptions of economic policy in Singapore.
Government by Coalition
September 9th, 2014 | Author: Contributions
Change We Must, the strident call to end one-party political domination and introduce necessary checks and balance on the government, engendered an instinctive appeal for coalitions among citizens. Coalitions are seen to deliver the necessary consensus and compromise necessary for a more equitable approach to governance. A companion piece to (http://www.tremeritus.com/2014/09/06/pap-shifted-ever-so-slightly/) this article is a brief look at coalition governments and how it might take place in Singapore.
Coalitions Everywhere
With the demise of communism, politics in the liberal democracies from the early 1990s was expected to move inexorably to the right. Surprisingly, coalition government proliferated instead with most of the liberal democracies now governed by coalitions.
| Country | Type of Coalition Govt | Country | Type of Coalition Govt |
| Denmark | Centre-Left | Norway | Centre-Right |
| Finland | Left-Right | Sweden | Centre-Right |
| Germany | Left-Right | Switzerland | Left-Right |
| Italy | Left-Right | UK | Centre-Right |
| Netherlands | Centre-Left | Japan | Centre-Right |
Two or more parties may decide to form a coalition to contest an election. A victory for them results in a coalition government, e.g. Denmark and Sweden. Often parties contest an election individually and after an election failed to deliver an outright majority, two or more parties agreed to form a coalition government, e.g. Germany and UK. Rarely, a party winning an outright majority may invite a smaller party to govern in coalition as a gesture to national unity, e.g. Japan.
Pros and cons of coalition
Advocates of coalition government assert that it leads to more consensus-based politics which better reflect the diverse opinions of the electorate. It is also seen to avoid the bitter left right divisions of the past. Those who are against, argued that coalitions tends to be fractious and prone to disunity because coalitions by necessity comprised different parties with different ideas and beliefs, making agreement on particularly contentious policies difficult.
In the writer’s measured opinion, there should not be significant obstacles in the formation of a coalition by the opposition parties. The PAP with its extreme pro-business policies, its draconian controls over the media and free speech and its false “self-reliance” ideology, is entrenched firmly on the right of the political spectrum. All opposition parties are campaigning on a retrograde of PAP policies to craft far more equitable policies, i.e. a move to the centre-right or centre. As such, there ought not to be major philosophical or political differences among the WP, SDP, SPP, DPP, RP and SFP. This really begs the question why the need for so many opposition parties. Perhaps, too many wannabe kings and kingmakers but the absence of sharp political divisions does help the cause for coalitions.
PAP Majority Coalition
The most likely outcome in the 2016 election is a reduced majority for the ruling party. The PAP can go alone but may want a show (wayang?) of national unity and invite one or more opposition parties into government, much like the current LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan. The co-drivers do not have much bargaining power since the PAP does not really need them. It would also be a naive suggestion that this is a good approach for the PAP to “instruct” the co-drivers on the practicalities of government. The PAP is in no mood to “teach” the co-drivers, more likely to deflect blame onto them. The opposition should consider very carefully because they may be painted with the same brush for policy failures.
PAP failed to achieve a majority
Anything can happen in politics if voters are angry enough. In such a scenario, the PAP is still likely to hold the largest amount of seats but short of a majority cannot form a government on its own. None of the opposition can be the largest party because none of them are able or plan to contest every constituency.
PAP-led Coalition
This is where it is necessary for the opposition to form at least a loose coalition before contesting the 2016 election. Being the largest party, albeit short of majority, the PAP has the first call to form a coalition government. If a pre-election opposition coalition did not exist, 1 or 2 of the opposition parties with the necessary seats may be tempted to join a PAP-led coalition but in this scenario, these co-drivers have a strong bargaining position since the PAP absolutely needs them.
Multi-party Coalition
If a pre-election coalition existed and unity held, the PAP will not be able to form a government which then open the way for the pre-election coalition of opposition parties to form the next government. For the cause of alternative politics, the coalition needs to hold unity throughout a Parliamentary term.
PAP Minority Government
If a pre-election coalition did not exist, an alternate strategy for the opposition parties should be to let the PAP form a minority government. This forces the PAP to negotiate with the relevant opposition parties for every legislation which then allow compromises to be extracted from the PAP. For example, in return for voting the budget, the opposition ought to demand the Official Secrets Act to be lifted from the SG reserves so their effects on the budget can be finally be independently analysed.
Ready for coalitions?
Chris K
* Chris K holds a senior position in a global financial centre bigger than Singapore. He writes mostly on economic and financial matters to highlight misconceptions of economic policy in Singapore.
