https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/dgby/2019-07-18/doc-ihytcitm2785802.shtml
英媒：中国经济 一年增长一个“澳大利亚”
2019年07月18日 07:59 环球时报
689
原标题：英媒：中国经济，一年增长一个“澳大利亚”
英国《金融时报》7月15日文章，原题：中国经济的规模和韧性被减速掩盖了 西方媒体鼓吹今年第二季度中国经济出现近30年最低增幅。然而，由这个数字不该推出草率结论。论规模和韧性，如今的中国经济跟上世纪90年代初已不可同日而语。去年，中国GDP的增量相当于整个澳大利亚经济。按目前增速，今年还将增加一个多“澳大利亚”。
第二大经济体仍是全球最大增长来源。一个13.6万亿美元体量的经济上半年增长6.3%的新闻，不应让人担心危机迫在眉睫。当然也有些隐忧。首先是美中贸易战在多大程度上影响中国增长。无疑，针锋相对的关税以及美国对中国公司的出口禁令造成了损失。但这方面的影响并不像数字看起来那么令人担心。实际上，贸易早就不再是中国增长的活力源泉了。今年迄今，经常账户顺差仅占其国内生产总值的1.5%，远低于10年前接近10%的最高值。
美国《巴伦周刊》7月16日文章，原题：中国消费者狂买汽车、化妆品等 中国经济增长放缓，但中国消费者表现不俗。6月份零售总额增长9.8%，超过预估的8.5%和5月份的8.6%增幅——麦格里集团的经济学家说，这是个“令人振奋的”强劲表现。
销售增长得到汽车强劲需求的助力，后者则受到行业优惠政策刺激。但增长是广泛的。比如化妆品零售额增长22.5%，家电销量增长7.7%，电商零售额猛增21%。上个月工业生产同比增长6.3%，比经济学家的预测高出约1个百分比，也高于5月份5%的增长率。
总体看，经济增长是放缓了。但铭基亚洲投资策略师安迪·罗斯曼表示：“宏观方面不差，主要是因为中国消费者不太担心特朗普的关税发飙。经济中最大的部分——消费和服务业稳健，就业稳定。”
上半年中国人均实际可支配收入上升6.5%。今年中国政府对低收入人群住房改造支出减少，罗斯曼原本担心中国的住房市场会受到打击，但这种情况并未发生。中国还实行减税降费措施，鼓励银行向私营企业贷款。这些并非过去经济下行时采取大规模刺激的那套做法，却为经济提供了缓冲。马吉特菲尔德资产管理公司的迈克尔·绍乌尔本周告诉客户，中国经济状况似乎好于很多专家预期。（作者瑞什玛·卡帕迪亚）
美国CNBC7月16日文章，原题：史蒂芬·罗奇认为，贸易战对中国的影响并非如数字看起来那样糟 尽管中国出现27年来最低季度增长率，但耶鲁大学高级研究员史蒂芬·罗奇认为，中国经济并非如最近的数字看起来那样糟。他说：“上周我在中国，感觉制造业这一块在放慢。但更大、增长更快的服务业，可能为经济提供了韧性。”
最近一次谈话时他表示，没看到中国对贸易战的高度焦虑。总体气氛显示，中国不会因担心经济减速而急于达成贸易协议。他认为，除非与华盛顿的贸易战加剧，否则中国的应对战略将是有效的。“中国有充裕的政策空间继续解决增长下行的问题”，罗奇表示，“现在，他们重点是对经济做很多战略性的事。”（乔恒译）
British media: China's economy grows one year "Australia"
July 18, 2019 07:59 Global Times
689
Original title: British media: China's economy, an annual increase in "Australia"
The British "Financial Times" July 15 article, the original title: China's economic size and resilience were slowed down. Western media advocated the second quarter of this year, China's economy has seen the lowest growth in nearly 30 years. However, by this figure it is not appropriate to introduce a hasty conclusion. On the scale and resilience, today's Chinese economy is no longer the same as in the early 1990s. Last year, China’s GDP growth was equivalent to the entire Australian economy. According to the current growth rate, this year will increase by more than one "Australia".
The second largest economy remains the largest source of growth in the world. A news of a 16.6 trillion-dollar economy growth of 6.3% in the first half of the year should not cause people to worry that the crisis is imminent. Of course, there are some hidden concerns. The first is the extent to which the US-China trade war has affected China's growth. Undoubtedly, the tit-for-tat tariffs and the US export ban on Chinese companies have caused losses. But the impact of this aspect is not as worrying as the numbers look. In fact, trade has long ceased to be a source of vitality for China's growth. So far this year, the current account surplus has only accounted for 1.5% of its GDP, far below the highest value of 10% 10 years ago.
The American "Balun Weekly" July 16 article, the original title: Chinese consumers madly buy cars, cosmetics, etc. China's economic growth slowed, but Chinese consumers performed well. Total retail sales rose 9.8% in June, surpassing the projected 8.5% and the 8.6% increase in May – an economist at the Macquarie Group said it was an “exciting” strong performance.
Sales growth has been boosted by strong demand for cars, which have been stimulated by industry incentives. But the growth is extensive. For example, the retail sales of cosmetics increased by 22.5%, the sales of home appliances increased by 7.7%, and the retail sales of e-commerce surged by 21%. Industrial production increased by 6.3% year-on-year last month, about one percentage higher than economists' forecast, and higher than the 5% growth rate in May.
Overall, economic growth is slowing down. But Mingdi Asia investment strategist Andy Rothman said: "The macro aspect is not bad, mainly because Chinese consumers are not too worried about Trump's tariffs. The biggest part of the economy - the consumption and service industries are stable, employment stable."
In the first half of the year, China’s per capita disposable income rose by 6.5%. This year, the Chinese government reduced spending on housing reform for low-income people. Rothman was worried that China's housing market would be hit, but this has not happened. China has also implemented tax cuts and fee reduction measures to encourage banks to lend to private companies. These are not the set of practices that used large-scale stimulus in the past when the economy went down, but they provided a buffer for the economy. Michael Sauul of Margitfield Asset Management told clients this week that China's economic situation seems to be better than many experts expected. (by Reshma Kapadia)
CNBC July 16th article, original title: Stephen Roach believes that the impact of trade wars on China is not as bad as the numbers look. Although China has the lowest quarterly growth rate in 27 years, Yale University senior researcher Stephen Roach believes that The Chinese economy is not as bad as the recent figures. He said: "I was in China last week, I feel that the manufacturing sector is slowing down. But the larger, faster-growing service industry may provide resilience to the economy."
In a recent conversation, he said that he did not see China’s high anxiety about the trade war. The overall atmosphere shows that China will not be eager to reach a trade agreement for fear of economic slowdown. He believes that unless the trade war with Washington intensifies, China's response strategy will be effective. “China has plenty of policy space to continue to solve the problem of growth downturn,” Roach said. “Now, they focus on doing a lot of strategic things for the economy.” (Joe Heng translation)
英媒：中国经济 一年增长一个“澳大利亚”
2019年07月18日 07:59 环球时报
689
原标题：英媒：中国经济，一年增长一个“澳大利亚”
英国《金融时报》7月15日文章，原题：中国经济的规模和韧性被减速掩盖了 西方媒体鼓吹今年第二季度中国经济出现近30年最低增幅。然而，由这个数字不该推出草率结论。论规模和韧性，如今的中国经济跟上世纪90年代初已不可同日而语。去年，中国GDP的增量相当于整个澳大利亚经济。按目前增速，今年还将增加一个多“澳大利亚”。
第二大经济体仍是全球最大增长来源。一个13.6万亿美元体量的经济上半年增长6.3%的新闻，不应让人担心危机迫在眉睫。当然也有些隐忧。首先是美中贸易战在多大程度上影响中国增长。无疑，针锋相对的关税以及美国对中国公司的出口禁令造成了损失。但这方面的影响并不像数字看起来那么令人担心。实际上，贸易早就不再是中国增长的活力源泉了。今年迄今，经常账户顺差仅占其国内生产总值的1.5%，远低于10年前接近10%的最高值。
美国《巴伦周刊》7月16日文章，原题：中国消费者狂买汽车、化妆品等 中国经济增长放缓，但中国消费者表现不俗。6月份零售总额增长9.8%，超过预估的8.5%和5月份的8.6%增幅——麦格里集团的经济学家说，这是个“令人振奋的”强劲表现。
销售增长得到汽车强劲需求的助力，后者则受到行业优惠政策刺激。但增长是广泛的。比如化妆品零售额增长22.5%，家电销量增长7.7%，电商零售额猛增21%。上个月工业生产同比增长6.3%，比经济学家的预测高出约1个百分比，也高于5月份5%的增长率。
总体看，经济增长是放缓了。但铭基亚洲投资策略师安迪·罗斯曼表示：“宏观方面不差，主要是因为中国消费者不太担心特朗普的关税发飙。经济中最大的部分——消费和服务业稳健，就业稳定。”
上半年中国人均实际可支配收入上升6.5%。今年中国政府对低收入人群住房改造支出减少，罗斯曼原本担心中国的住房市场会受到打击，但这种情况并未发生。中国还实行减税降费措施，鼓励银行向私营企业贷款。这些并非过去经济下行时采取大规模刺激的那套做法，却为经济提供了缓冲。马吉特菲尔德资产管理公司的迈克尔·绍乌尔本周告诉客户，中国经济状况似乎好于很多专家预期。（作者瑞什玛·卡帕迪亚）
美国CNBC7月16日文章，原题：史蒂芬·罗奇认为，贸易战对中国的影响并非如数字看起来那样糟 尽管中国出现27年来最低季度增长率，但耶鲁大学高级研究员史蒂芬·罗奇认为，中国经济并非如最近的数字看起来那样糟。他说：“上周我在中国，感觉制造业这一块在放慢。但更大、增长更快的服务业，可能为经济提供了韧性。”
最近一次谈话时他表示，没看到中国对贸易战的高度焦虑。总体气氛显示，中国不会因担心经济减速而急于达成贸易协议。他认为，除非与华盛顿的贸易战加剧，否则中国的应对战略将是有效的。“中国有充裕的政策空间继续解决增长下行的问题”，罗奇表示，“现在，他们重点是对经济做很多战略性的事。”（乔恒译）
British media: China's economy grows one year "Australia"
July 18, 2019 07:59 Global Times
689
Original title: British media: China's economy, an annual increase in "Australia"
The British "Financial Times" July 15 article, the original title: China's economic size and resilience were slowed down. Western media advocated the second quarter of this year, China's economy has seen the lowest growth in nearly 30 years. However, by this figure it is not appropriate to introduce a hasty conclusion. On the scale and resilience, today's Chinese economy is no longer the same as in the early 1990s. Last year, China’s GDP growth was equivalent to the entire Australian economy. According to the current growth rate, this year will increase by more than one "Australia".
The second largest economy remains the largest source of growth in the world. A news of a 16.6 trillion-dollar economy growth of 6.3% in the first half of the year should not cause people to worry that the crisis is imminent. Of course, there are some hidden concerns. The first is the extent to which the US-China trade war has affected China's growth. Undoubtedly, the tit-for-tat tariffs and the US export ban on Chinese companies have caused losses. But the impact of this aspect is not as worrying as the numbers look. In fact, trade has long ceased to be a source of vitality for China's growth. So far this year, the current account surplus has only accounted for 1.5% of its GDP, far below the highest value of 10% 10 years ago.
The American "Balun Weekly" July 16 article, the original title: Chinese consumers madly buy cars, cosmetics, etc. China's economic growth slowed, but Chinese consumers performed well. Total retail sales rose 9.8% in June, surpassing the projected 8.5% and the 8.6% increase in May – an economist at the Macquarie Group said it was an “exciting” strong performance.
Sales growth has been boosted by strong demand for cars, which have been stimulated by industry incentives. But the growth is extensive. For example, the retail sales of cosmetics increased by 22.5%, the sales of home appliances increased by 7.7%, and the retail sales of e-commerce surged by 21%. Industrial production increased by 6.3% year-on-year last month, about one percentage higher than economists' forecast, and higher than the 5% growth rate in May.
Overall, economic growth is slowing down. But Mingdi Asia investment strategist Andy Rothman said: "The macro aspect is not bad, mainly because Chinese consumers are not too worried about Trump's tariffs. The biggest part of the economy - the consumption and service industries are stable, employment stable."
In the first half of the year, China’s per capita disposable income rose by 6.5%. This year, the Chinese government reduced spending on housing reform for low-income people. Rothman was worried that China's housing market would be hit, but this has not happened. China has also implemented tax cuts and fee reduction measures to encourage banks to lend to private companies. These are not the set of practices that used large-scale stimulus in the past when the economy went down, but they provided a buffer for the economy. Michael Sauul of Margitfield Asset Management told clients this week that China's economic situation seems to be better than many experts expected. (by Reshma Kapadia)
CNBC July 16th article, original title: Stephen Roach believes that the impact of trade wars on China is not as bad as the numbers look. Although China has the lowest quarterly growth rate in 27 years, Yale University senior researcher Stephen Roach believes that The Chinese economy is not as bad as the recent figures. He said: "I was in China last week, I feel that the manufacturing sector is slowing down. But the larger, faster-growing service industry may provide resilience to the economy."
In a recent conversation, he said that he did not see China’s high anxiety about the trade war. The overall atmosphere shows that China will not be eager to reach a trade agreement for fear of economic slowdown. He believes that unless the trade war with Washington intensifies, China's response strategy will be effective. “China has plenty of policy space to continue to solve the problem of growth downturn,” Roach said. “Now, they focus on doing a lot of strategic things for the economy.” (Joe Heng translation)
