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Coffeeshop Chit Chat - Jobs, age are risk factors for uprisings</TD><TD id=msgunetc noWrap align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=msgtable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="96%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=msg vAlign=top><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgbfr1 width="1%"> </TD><TD><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=msghead vAlign=top><TD class=msgF width="1%" noWrap align=right>From: </TD><TD class=msgFname width="68%" noWrap>kojakbt89 <NOBR></NOBR> </TD><TD class=msgDate width="30%" noWrap align=right>5:55 am </TD></TR><TR class=msghead><TD class=msgT height=20 width="1%" noWrap align=right>To: </TD><TD class=msgTname width="68%" noWrap>ALL <NOBR></NOBR></TD><TD class=msgNum noWrap align=right> (1 of 2) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgleft rowSpan=4 width="1%"> </TD><TD class=wintiny noWrap align=right>44222.1 </TD></TR><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR><TR><TD class=msgtxt>Feb 5, 2011
Jobs, age among risk factors for uprisings, say experts
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DUBAI: As demands for regime change sweep the Middle East and North Africa, leaving diplomats and geopolitical analysts struggling to keep abreast of developments, financial analysts are turning to economic indicators to guide their bets on which countries will be most susceptible to contagion.
'Not every country with an employment rate above a certain figure will necessarily face a revolution as each society has its own dynamics, but there are shared and distinct factors driving the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia,' said Mr Tristan Cooper, head analyst of Middle East Sovereigns for Moody's Investors Services.
'Contagion into the wider region is more likely in countries that have large numbers of frustrated, unemployed citizens who are eager for political change.' Algeria, Jordan and Morocco, countries with high jobless rates and growing young populations, are among the most vulnerable, according to the Standard and Poor's (S&P) ratings agency.
A young population and very high unemployment rates - particularly among the young - are common characteristics of economies in a region where countries, on average, have 60 per cent of their populations under the age of 30, according to data from S&P and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
While regional economies have grown in tandem with their populations, they have failed to generate sufficient overall employment to absorb a growing labour force, or enough demand for skilled labour to absorb the flow of educated graduates, according to an S&P report released last week.
'It has been difficult to create jobs at a pace that can keep up with the growth of the labour force, and youth unemployment is thought to be nearly twice as high as official rates,' said the report's co-author Kai Stukenbrock, director of S&P's Middle East sovereign team. 'The protests are driven by the young population, they are the first ones to go into the streets.'
The IMF estimates that more than 100 million jobs will need to be created in the region by 2020.
'There is also a tendency to have underdeveloped private sectors to the benefit of sprawling public sectors,' said Dubai-based senior economist Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, who covers the regional markets for Standard Chartered Bank. 'Add to this a mismatch between the education system and job market needs, and the main objective for aspiring graduates is that of a career as a civil servant.'
Between high unemployment and low incomes, people have also struggled with rising food and fuel prices - historically a source of rioting in the region.
'If people are unfed, unemployed, and see blatant corruption for 10 years, it leads to a dangerous combination,' said Mr John Sfakianakis - chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi, part of the Credit Agricole group - who taught Middle East economics at Harvard University for five years, with a special focus on business in Egypt.
THE NEW YORK TIMES
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Jobs, age among risk factors for uprisings, say experts
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<!-- end left side bar --><!-- story content : start -->
DUBAI: As demands for regime change sweep the Middle East and North Africa, leaving diplomats and geopolitical analysts struggling to keep abreast of developments, financial analysts are turning to economic indicators to guide their bets on which countries will be most susceptible to contagion.
'Not every country with an employment rate above a certain figure will necessarily face a revolution as each society has its own dynamics, but there are shared and distinct factors driving the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia,' said Mr Tristan Cooper, head analyst of Middle East Sovereigns for Moody's Investors Services.
'Contagion into the wider region is more likely in countries that have large numbers of frustrated, unemployed citizens who are eager for political change.' Algeria, Jordan and Morocco, countries with high jobless rates and growing young populations, are among the most vulnerable, according to the Standard and Poor's (S&P) ratings agency.
A young population and very high unemployment rates - particularly among the young - are common characteristics of economies in a region where countries, on average, have 60 per cent of their populations under the age of 30, according to data from S&P and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
While regional economies have grown in tandem with their populations, they have failed to generate sufficient overall employment to absorb a growing labour force, or enough demand for skilled labour to absorb the flow of educated graduates, according to an S&P report released last week.
'It has been difficult to create jobs at a pace that can keep up with the growth of the labour force, and youth unemployment is thought to be nearly twice as high as official rates,' said the report's co-author Kai Stukenbrock, director of S&P's Middle East sovereign team. 'The protests are driven by the young population, they are the first ones to go into the streets.'
The IMF estimates that more than 100 million jobs will need to be created in the region by 2020.
'There is also a tendency to have underdeveloped private sectors to the benefit of sprawling public sectors,' said Dubai-based senior economist Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, who covers the regional markets for Standard Chartered Bank. 'Add to this a mismatch between the education system and job market needs, and the main objective for aspiring graduates is that of a career as a civil servant.'
Between high unemployment and low incomes, people have also struggled with rising food and fuel prices - historically a source of rioting in the region.
'If people are unfed, unemployed, and see blatant corruption for 10 years, it leads to a dangerous combination,' said Mr John Sfakianakis - chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi, part of the Credit Agricole group - who taught Middle East economics at Harvard University for five years, with a special focus on business in Egypt.
THE NEW YORK TIMES
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