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[h=2]Experts: Singapore can do with a lower level of immigration[/h]
February 13th, 2013 |
Author: Editorial
The replacement fertility rate of 2.1 is a highly “artificial number”, according to Professor Wolfgang Lutz, founding director at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.
Prof Lutz opined, “2.1 is often taken as a benchmark, but it doesn’t really deserve the status. It’s a highly artificial number.”
He said that the figure does not take into account of education levels, migration and mortality rates, which are all constantly changing. With better education, the younger generation is expected to be more productive in their work. They also stay longer in the workforce.
=> But the FAP Traitors are eager to expire SGs when they reach their 40s. This then explains their need for Ponzi Population to prop up the CPF piggy bank milked dry by the Familee of Gamblers!
He said, “Once you factor this in, then actually a fertility (rate) of around 1.7 may be best. Because then you have somewhat fewer children, but you can invest more per child and that will more than compensate for the smaller size of the cohort.”
Prof Lutz was speaking at a seminar organised by the NUS Department of Sociology.
Another speaker, Professor Chua Beng Huat, NUS Head of the Sociology Department, said, “Precisely because we’re investing so much in education, that the quality of the population will be improving consistently, that we do not have to work on 2.1 as the replacement rate. We can actually take a lower rate and we’ll still be economically healthy.”
This means Singapore can do with a lower level of immigration.
He said, “If we can tolerate a lower – when you say we can tolerate less than 2.1 (fertility rate), it also means that the total population calculation numbers will come down. Which also means the number of immigrants you take in will also be less than what’s currently projected.”
Experts also think that there may be a need to rethink and adjust the old-age dependency ratio, which is currently defined by the number of people aged 65 years and older, divided by the number of working age adults.
So, rather than looking at the numbers, experts say the focus should be on education.
The government recently released a White Paper addressing Singapore’s low birth rate and ageing population.
Minister Vivian Balakrishnan wrote on his Facebook, “We are facing the crisis of our lifetime. Our citizen population will halve every two generations.”
“The real emergency is not babies, but ageing… By 2030, the number of senior citizens older than 65 years will triple to 900,000. Who will look after us? Today, we have almost six working-age citizens for every senior. In 2030, we will only have two.”
=> More pressing question - WHERE IS OUR MONEY?
Vivian then talked about “topping up” Singapore with foreign workers in the next 2 decades.
He said, “Hence, we will need some kind of ‘top up’ over the next two decades – foreigners to work with us, care for us, pay taxes and to help create opportunities.”
“Actually even 1M extra foreigners will still mean far less young people supporting seniors than today.”
He said the Govt focus is on the welfare of the current 3.2 million Singapore citizens and future Singaporean children.
He added, “Everyone and everything else is secondary.”
.
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The replacement fertility rate of 2.1 is a highly “artificial number”, according to Professor Wolfgang Lutz, founding director at Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.
Prof Lutz opined, “2.1 is often taken as a benchmark, but it doesn’t really deserve the status. It’s a highly artificial number.”
He said that the figure does not take into account of education levels, migration and mortality rates, which are all constantly changing. With better education, the younger generation is expected to be more productive in their work. They also stay longer in the workforce.
=> But the FAP Traitors are eager to expire SGs when they reach their 40s. This then explains their need for Ponzi Population to prop up the CPF piggy bank milked dry by the Familee of Gamblers!
He said, “Once you factor this in, then actually a fertility (rate) of around 1.7 may be best. Because then you have somewhat fewer children, but you can invest more per child and that will more than compensate for the smaller size of the cohort.”
Prof Lutz was speaking at a seminar organised by the NUS Department of Sociology.
Another speaker, Professor Chua Beng Huat, NUS Head of the Sociology Department, said, “Precisely because we’re investing so much in education, that the quality of the population will be improving consistently, that we do not have to work on 2.1 as the replacement rate. We can actually take a lower rate and we’ll still be economically healthy.”
This means Singapore can do with a lower level of immigration.
He said, “If we can tolerate a lower – when you say we can tolerate less than 2.1 (fertility rate), it also means that the total population calculation numbers will come down. Which also means the number of immigrants you take in will also be less than what’s currently projected.”
Experts also think that there may be a need to rethink and adjust the old-age dependency ratio, which is currently defined by the number of people aged 65 years and older, divided by the number of working age adults.
So, rather than looking at the numbers, experts say the focus should be on education.
The government recently released a White Paper addressing Singapore’s low birth rate and ageing population.
Minister Vivian Balakrishnan wrote on his Facebook, “We are facing the crisis of our lifetime. Our citizen population will halve every two generations.”
“The real emergency is not babies, but ageing… By 2030, the number of senior citizens older than 65 years will triple to 900,000. Who will look after us? Today, we have almost six working-age citizens for every senior. In 2030, we will only have two.”
=> More pressing question - WHERE IS OUR MONEY?
Vivian then talked about “topping up” Singapore with foreign workers in the next 2 decades.
He said, “Hence, we will need some kind of ‘top up’ over the next two decades – foreigners to work with us, care for us, pay taxes and to help create opportunities.”
“Actually even 1M extra foreigners will still mean far less young people supporting seniors than today.”
He said the Govt focus is on the welfare of the current 3.2 million Singapore citizens and future Singaporean children.
He added, “Everyone and everything else is secondary.”
.
Join our TRE facebook page here: http://www.facebook.com/TREmeritus
.
