https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2019-08-15/doc-ihytcitm9376474.shtml
英媒：特朗普或与中国达成“世纪协议” 以获连任
英媒：特朗普或与中国达成“世纪协议” 以获连任
998
原标题：英媒预测特朗普或制造“大交易”提升连任几率
参考消息网8月15日报道 英国《卫报》网站8月11日发表题为《为何特朗普的“极限施压”外交政策收效甚微？》的文章，作者为朱利安·博格。文章称，唐纳德·特朗普即将带着没有明显外交胜利的政绩投入2020年大选。一些戏剧性的失败和世界各地一系列迫在眉睫的危机可能会破坏他争取连任的努力。因此，许多人预测，特朗普将寻求通过在全球采取影响深远但结果难料的干预行动来扭转这一趋势——这将使未来16个月的局势比他担任总统以来更为动荡。
利用外交讨好内政
文章称，外交政策问题很少在美国总统大选中发挥主导作用，但特朗普却不遗余力地将自己塑造为能与外国领导人达成协议、并将美军撤回国内的唯一人选。一些外国危机对美国国内产生了直接影响。特朗普承诺的中美协议至今没有达成，加征关税和贸易战愈演愈烈，这些都将直接影响到消费者和生产商。
奥巴马的演讲撰稿人、外交政策顾问本·罗兹说：“有意思的是，在这其中的每一个问题上，特朗普都看到了在国内政治中可以带来的好处：对中国、伊朗和委内瑞拉强硬，心中想的是争取佛罗里达选民……但无论短期利益如何，都已被他制造的长期混乱蒙上了阴影。”
放低底线营造“成功”
文章认为，即将全面开启竞选模式的特朗普似乎意识到了自己在外交政策上的不足，并寻求解决这个问题。
从短期来看，这意味着重新定义成功。
文章称，在朝鲜问题上，这意味着淡化他最初的说法，即与朝鲜的外交最终将带来核裁军。一直以来，他强调的是朝鲜暂停核试验和导弹试验。当朝鲜加紧发射短程导弹时，红线就被移至防止其发射洲际导弹上。
文章还称，针对伊朗的“极限施压”战略旨在改变伊朗政府在中东地区的行为方式，结束其铀浓缩活动，使其放弃直接或通过代理人介入叙利亚、伊拉克和也门事务，并说服伊朗与美国开启新的谈判。以这些标准来衡量，到目前为止，这项战略正在产生事与愿违的效果。伊朗正在突破2015年核协议的限制，加紧推进核计划。
目前尚不清楚，随着朝鲜越来越多地进行的导弹发射，以及伊朗突破核限制，降低成功门槛的战术能否使特朗普在明年11月的大选中获胜。
制造“大交易”博眼球
文章称，特朗普的另一个选择是，采取大胆的行动重新掌握主动权。这将可能是军事形式，但也是最后的手段。无论对选举还是对其他方面而言，朝鲜半岛或波斯湾再发生冲突将是灾难性的。今年6月，特朗普打击伊朗的行动“已经箭在弦上”，却在最后一刻取消了行动。当时有人警告他说，这将可能使他失去第二个任期。
文章还称，他本能地想要做一笔引人注目的交易。他表示有意与朝鲜领导人再次举行峰会。在峰会上，他可以提出以拆除一些朝鲜核武器基础设施为条件，取消部分制裁措施。
迄今为止，特朗普寻求与伊朗领导人直接对话的努力都遭到拒绝，但9月的联合国大会提供了另一个与伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼会晤的机会。要做到这一点，就可能需要极大缓解对伊朗的经济施压。特朗普也许认为值得冒这个险，即使这需要他的极端鹰派国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿下台。
文章指出，中美也可能达成部分贸易协议。特朗普将可能利用任何这样的协议“大做文章”，称其为世纪性的协议。
曾在奥巴马政府担任高级国家安全官员的朱莉安娜·史密斯说：“特朗普将抢占头条，将自己塑造成领袖。”她说：“未来18个月，我们将看到一系列轻率和鲁莽的举动以及更多的戏剧性事件。所以，坐稳了！”
点击进入专题：
中美双方同意重启经贸磋商
Https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2019-08-15/doc-ihytcitm9376474.shtml
British media: Trump or China reached a "century agreement" to be re-elected
British media: Trump or China reached a "century agreement" to be re-elected
998
Original title: British media predicts Trump or manufacturing "big deal" to increase the chance of re-election
Reference News Network reported on August 15 The British "Guardian" website published on August 11th entitled "Why Trump's "extreme pressure" foreign policy has little effect? The article by Julian Borg. The article said that Donald Trump is about to enter the 2020 election with political achievements without obvious diplomatic victories. Some dramatic failures and a series of imminent crises around the world may undermine his efforts to re-elect. As a result, many predict that Trump will seek to reverse this trend by taking far-reaching but unpredictable interventions around the world – which will make the situation in the next 16 months more volatile than he has been president.
Use diplomacy to please the internal affairs
The article said that foreign policy issues rarely play a leading role in the US presidential election, but Trump spares no effort to shape itself as the only candidate who can reach an agreement with foreign leaders and withdraw the US troops back home. Some foreign crises have had a direct impact on the United States. The Sino-US agreement promised by Trump has not been reached so far, and the increase in tariffs and trade wars will intensify, which will directly affect consumers and producers.
Obama’s speech writer and foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes said: “Interestingly, on every of these issues, Trump has seen the benefits that can be brought about in domestic politics: against China, Iran And Venezuela is tough, and the mind is trying to win the Florida voters... but regardless of the short-term interests, it has been cast a shadow over the long-term chaos he created."
Lower the bottom line to create "success"
The article believes that Trump, who is about to fully open the campaign model, seems to be aware of his lack of foreign policy and seek to solve this problem.
In the short term, this means redefining success.
The article said that on the North Korean issue, this meant diluting his original statement that diplomacy with North Korea would eventually lead to nuclear disarmament. He has always emphasized that North Korea has suspended nuclear tests and missile tests. When North Korea stepped up its launch of short-range missiles, the red line was moved to prevent it from launching intercontinental missiles.
The article also stated that the “extreme pressure” strategy for Iran aims to change the way the Iranian government acts in the Middle East, end its uranium enrichment activities, and abandon its involvement in Syria, Iraq and Yemen directly or through agents and persuade Iran. Open new negotiations with the United States. By these standards, the strategy is now counterproductive. Iran is breaking through the restrictions of the 2015 nuclear deal and stepping up its nuclear program.
It is unclear whether, with North Korea’s increasing number of missile launches and Iran’s breakthrough in nuclear restrictions, the tactics of lowering the threshold for success will allow Trump to win in the November election.
Create "big deal" blog
The article said that Trump's other option is to take bold action to regain control. This will probably be a military form, but it is also the last resort. Recurrence of conflict on the Korean peninsula or the Persian Gulf will be disastrous for elections and other aspects. In June of this year, Trump’s action against Iran “has been on the line” but canceled the action at the last minute. At that time, someone warned him that this would probably make him lose his second term.
The article also stated that he instinctively wanted to make a compelling deal. He expressed his intention to hold another summit with the North Korean leader. At the summit, he could propose to cancel some of the sanctions on the condition that the North Korean nuclear weapons infrastructure was dismantled.
To date, Trump’s efforts to seek direct dialogue with Iran’s leaders have been rejected, but the September UN General Assembly provided another opportunity to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rohani. To do this, it may be necessary to greatly ease the pressure on the Iranian economy. Trump may think it's worth the risk, even if it requires his extreme hawkish national security adviser John Bolton to step down.
The article pointed out that China and the United States may also reach partial trade agreements. Trump will likely use any such agreement to "make a big fuss", calling it a century-old agreement.
Juliana Smith, a former senior national security official at the Obama administration, said: "Trump will take the lead and shape itself into a leader." She said: "In the next 18 months, we will see a series of rash and reckless. The move and more dramatic events. So, sit down!"
Click to enter the topic:
China and the United States agree to restart economic and trade consultations
英媒：特朗普或与中国达成“世纪协议” 以获连任
英媒：特朗普或与中国达成“世纪协议” 以获连任
998
原标题：英媒预测特朗普或制造“大交易”提升连任几率
参考消息网8月15日报道 英国《卫报》网站8月11日发表题为《为何特朗普的“极限施压”外交政策收效甚微？》的文章，作者为朱利安·博格。文章称，唐纳德·特朗普即将带着没有明显外交胜利的政绩投入2020年大选。一些戏剧性的失败和世界各地一系列迫在眉睫的危机可能会破坏他争取连任的努力。因此，许多人预测，特朗普将寻求通过在全球采取影响深远但结果难料的干预行动来扭转这一趋势——这将使未来16个月的局势比他担任总统以来更为动荡。
利用外交讨好内政
文章称，外交政策问题很少在美国总统大选中发挥主导作用，但特朗普却不遗余力地将自己塑造为能与外国领导人达成协议、并将美军撤回国内的唯一人选。一些外国危机对美国国内产生了直接影响。特朗普承诺的中美协议至今没有达成，加征关税和贸易战愈演愈烈，这些都将直接影响到消费者和生产商。
奥巴马的演讲撰稿人、外交政策顾问本·罗兹说：“有意思的是，在这其中的每一个问题上，特朗普都看到了在国内政治中可以带来的好处：对中国、伊朗和委内瑞拉强硬，心中想的是争取佛罗里达选民……但无论短期利益如何，都已被他制造的长期混乱蒙上了阴影。”
放低底线营造“成功”
文章认为，即将全面开启竞选模式的特朗普似乎意识到了自己在外交政策上的不足，并寻求解决这个问题。
从短期来看，这意味着重新定义成功。
文章称，在朝鲜问题上，这意味着淡化他最初的说法，即与朝鲜的外交最终将带来核裁军。一直以来，他强调的是朝鲜暂停核试验和导弹试验。当朝鲜加紧发射短程导弹时，红线就被移至防止其发射洲际导弹上。
文章还称，针对伊朗的“极限施压”战略旨在改变伊朗政府在中东地区的行为方式，结束其铀浓缩活动，使其放弃直接或通过代理人介入叙利亚、伊拉克和也门事务，并说服伊朗与美国开启新的谈判。以这些标准来衡量，到目前为止，这项战略正在产生事与愿违的效果。伊朗正在突破2015年核协议的限制，加紧推进核计划。
目前尚不清楚，随着朝鲜越来越多地进行的导弹发射，以及伊朗突破核限制，降低成功门槛的战术能否使特朗普在明年11月的大选中获胜。
制造“大交易”博眼球
文章称，特朗普的另一个选择是，采取大胆的行动重新掌握主动权。这将可能是军事形式，但也是最后的手段。无论对选举还是对其他方面而言，朝鲜半岛或波斯湾再发生冲突将是灾难性的。今年6月，特朗普打击伊朗的行动“已经箭在弦上”，却在最后一刻取消了行动。当时有人警告他说，这将可能使他失去第二个任期。
文章还称，他本能地想要做一笔引人注目的交易。他表示有意与朝鲜领导人再次举行峰会。在峰会上，他可以提出以拆除一些朝鲜核武器基础设施为条件，取消部分制裁措施。
迄今为止，特朗普寻求与伊朗领导人直接对话的努力都遭到拒绝，但9月的联合国大会提供了另一个与伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼会晤的机会。要做到这一点，就可能需要极大缓解对伊朗的经济施压。特朗普也许认为值得冒这个险，即使这需要他的极端鹰派国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿下台。
文章指出，中美也可能达成部分贸易协议。特朗普将可能利用任何这样的协议“大做文章”，称其为世纪性的协议。
曾在奥巴马政府担任高级国家安全官员的朱莉安娜·史密斯说：“特朗普将抢占头条，将自己塑造成领袖。”她说：“未来18个月，我们将看到一系列轻率和鲁莽的举动以及更多的戏剧性事件。所以，坐稳了！”
点击进入专题：
中美双方同意重启经贸磋商
Https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2019-08-15/doc-ihytcitm9376474.shtml
British media: Trump or China reached a "century agreement" to be re-elected
British media: Trump or China reached a "century agreement" to be re-elected
998
Original title: British media predicts Trump or manufacturing "big deal" to increase the chance of re-election
Reference News Network reported on August 15 The British "Guardian" website published on August 11th entitled "Why Trump's "extreme pressure" foreign policy has little effect? The article by Julian Borg. The article said that Donald Trump is about to enter the 2020 election with political achievements without obvious diplomatic victories. Some dramatic failures and a series of imminent crises around the world may undermine his efforts to re-elect. As a result, many predict that Trump will seek to reverse this trend by taking far-reaching but unpredictable interventions around the world – which will make the situation in the next 16 months more volatile than he has been president.
Use diplomacy to please the internal affairs
The article said that foreign policy issues rarely play a leading role in the US presidential election, but Trump spares no effort to shape itself as the only candidate who can reach an agreement with foreign leaders and withdraw the US troops back home. Some foreign crises have had a direct impact on the United States. The Sino-US agreement promised by Trump has not been reached so far, and the increase in tariffs and trade wars will intensify, which will directly affect consumers and producers.
Obama’s speech writer and foreign policy adviser Ben Rhodes said: “Interestingly, on every of these issues, Trump has seen the benefits that can be brought about in domestic politics: against China, Iran And Venezuela is tough, and the mind is trying to win the Florida voters... but regardless of the short-term interests, it has been cast a shadow over the long-term chaos he created."
Lower the bottom line to create "success"
The article believes that Trump, who is about to fully open the campaign model, seems to be aware of his lack of foreign policy and seek to solve this problem.
In the short term, this means redefining success.
The article said that on the North Korean issue, this meant diluting his original statement that diplomacy with North Korea would eventually lead to nuclear disarmament. He has always emphasized that North Korea has suspended nuclear tests and missile tests. When North Korea stepped up its launch of short-range missiles, the red line was moved to prevent it from launching intercontinental missiles.
The article also stated that the “extreme pressure” strategy for Iran aims to change the way the Iranian government acts in the Middle East, end its uranium enrichment activities, and abandon its involvement in Syria, Iraq and Yemen directly or through agents and persuade Iran. Open new negotiations with the United States. By these standards, the strategy is now counterproductive. Iran is breaking through the restrictions of the 2015 nuclear deal and stepping up its nuclear program.
It is unclear whether, with North Korea’s increasing number of missile launches and Iran’s breakthrough in nuclear restrictions, the tactics of lowering the threshold for success will allow Trump to win in the November election.
Create "big deal" blog
The article said that Trump's other option is to take bold action to regain control. This will probably be a military form, but it is also the last resort. Recurrence of conflict on the Korean peninsula or the Persian Gulf will be disastrous for elections and other aspects. In June of this year, Trump’s action against Iran “has been on the line” but canceled the action at the last minute. At that time, someone warned him that this would probably make him lose his second term.
The article also stated that he instinctively wanted to make a compelling deal. He expressed his intention to hold another summit with the North Korean leader. At the summit, he could propose to cancel some of the sanctions on the condition that the North Korean nuclear weapons infrastructure was dismantled.
To date, Trump’s efforts to seek direct dialogue with Iran’s leaders have been rejected, but the September UN General Assembly provided another opportunity to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rohani. To do this, it may be necessary to greatly ease the pressure on the Iranian economy. Trump may think it's worth the risk, even if it requires his extreme hawkish national security adviser John Bolton to step down.
The article pointed out that China and the United States may also reach partial trade agreements. Trump will likely use any such agreement to "make a big fuss", calling it a century-old agreement.
Juliana Smith, a former senior national security official at the Obama administration, said: "Trump will take the lead and shape itself into a leader." She said: "In the next 18 months, we will see a series of rash and reckless. The move and more dramatic events. So, sit down!"
Click to enter the topic:
China and the United States agree to restart economic and trade consultations
