China: We got no choice now but to INCREASE OUR NUKE WARHEAD NUMBERS! Dotard Gui Lan Hor?

[war is best form of peace]

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/china/2020-05-12/doc-iircuyvi2615458.shtml

胡锡进：我相信中国会增加核弹头 因为已别无选择

2020年05月12日 09:27 环球时报



20,284

有人对胡锡进呼吁扩充核武库提出4项指控，胡锡进逐条回应
老胡首先欢迎对我呼吁中国应扩大核武器数量的批评，这个态度昨天我已经表明了。今天我来对那些批评做一些回应。
第一，主张中国增加核武器数量，这本身就是反和平的。这种指控有一些是理想主义的，那些人对核有着完全的厌恶。当然了，不排除这当中还有一些人的立场和感情没有与中国国家安全利益在一起，甚至站到了它的对立面。如果是外国人这样说，完全情有可原，但中国人这样说，我只能用上面两种情况来猜测他们对我的愤怒。另外，一些人说核武器的钱应该用来搞民生建设、扶贫，我觉得与他们对话很难，就由他们闹闹得了。
第二，中国需要保有多少核武器是严格计算出来的，我的主张不专业，是拍脑袋的。老胡不是这方面的专家，这没错。但如果认为只有“军控专家”才能够谈论核武器，这样的理解太狭隘了。中美博弈是两个大社会之间的事情，核威慑所要塑造的不光是对方军队的态度，还包括对方政治、经济以及舆论界的心理，针对的是整个对方的国家意志。而对于国家意志的了解，老胡一点都不低于军控专家。我的意思是，很显然，我有权利参加这样的讨论。
第三，中国的核威慑走的是模糊战略，老胡不该挑明中国需要有多少核武器。其实老胡说的1000个核弹头以上和100枚东风-41以上，都不是精确数，而是量级概念。我觉得，经我这么一说，有人支持有人反对，中国的核威慑模糊战略并没有变“清晰”。我的意思是，过去中国比较弱的时候，美国没有要与中国死磕的意思，中国当时有一些核武器可能真的就够了。但现在，中国核威慑的量级需要提升。都是模糊战略，过去美国人估计中国有“几百个”核弹头，今后我们要做到让他们朝着估摸中国有“一两千个”核弹头去模糊。如果中国都已经被美国定义为主要战略竞争对手了，美国继续很确定地认为中国只有“几百个”核弹头，那么对中国来说将是危险的。

中国不需要与美国进行军备竞赛，但随着华盛顿打压北京战略意志的提升，我们的核威慑必须随之提升。无论用什么样的计算模型来得出中国所需核弹头的数量，这个常识性逻辑都需是它们的基础。
2006年的时候，有两名美国学者在《外交》杂志上发文，宣称通过计算，美国有能力一次性摧毁中国和俄罗斯的全部核力量。如果美国决策者们和大量政治精英们也带着这样的自信来推动、制定压制中国政策的话，那将是很糟糕的。
第四，即使中国想扩大核武库，也应只做不说。中国不应大声喧哗这件事，老胡同意。但完全悄悄地增加核弹头，在某一个阶段可以，长时间那样做，老胡反对。核武器就是用来威慑的，完全藏起来掖起来，还要它们何用？天安门大阅兵，每次最受关注的都是战略导弹方队，那就是展示给外界看的。

请不要限制中国媒体人说什么。中国的舆论光谱太窄了，以至于老胡这样的人发一个帖子，就能如此轰动，这很不正常，也不符合中国国家利益。看看美国那边每天会出多少针对中国的声音，我们这边又能出多少针对美国的声音？老胡就是要按照我理解的中国国家利益，怎么想就怎么说。美国人是不是会担心，会不会受不了，这不是我首先要考虑的事情。如果说我要考虑点什么，我会更多考虑扩大中国这边的话语空间，增加中国对美博弈的舆论资源。我觉得我这次直抒胸臆，与我的这个愿望是不矛盾的。
最后我想说，我相信中国会增加核弹头的，因为中国实际上别无选择。


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Hu Xijin: I believe China will increase its nuclear warheads because it has no choice
May 12, 2020 09:27 Global Times
20,284

People made four accusations against Hu Xijin's call for expansion of nuclear arsenal, Hu Xijin responded one by one

Lao Hu first welcomes my criticism of my call for China to expand the number of nuclear weapons. This attitude was made clear yesterday. Today I will respond to those criticisms.

First, advocating China to increase the number of nuclear weapons is itself anti-peace. Some of these accusations are idealistic, and those people have a complete aversion to nuclear. Of course, it is not ruled out that there are still some people whose positions and feelings are not with China's national security interests, and even stand against it. If foreigners say this, it is completely excusable, but when the Chinese say this, I can only use the above two scenarios to guess their anger at me. In addition, some people said that the money for nuclear weapons should be used for people's livelihood construction and poverty alleviation. I find it difficult to talk to them, and they will make trouble.

Secondly, how many nuclear weapons China needs to keep is strictly calculated. My claim is unprofessional. Lao Hu is not an expert in this area, that's right. But if one thinks that only "arms control experts" can talk about nuclear weapons, such an understanding is too narrow. The Sino-US game is a matter between two large societies. The nuclear deterrence is not only about the attitude of the other party's army, but also the other party's political, economic, and public opinion psychology. As for the understanding of the will of the country, Lao Hu is no less than an arms control expert. I mean, obviously, I have the right to participate in such discussions.

Third, China's nuclear deterrence follows a vague strategy, and Lao Hu should not be able to figure out how many nuclear weapons China needs. In fact, the old bullshit of more than 1,000 nuclear warheads and more than 100 Dongfeng-41s are not accurate numbers, but are orders of magnitude. I think that, as I said, some people support and some people oppose, China's nuclear deterrence strategy has not become "clear." I mean, when China was relatively weak in the past, the United States did not mean to die with China. China may have enough nuclear weapons at that time. But now, the magnitude of China's nuclear deterrence needs to be improved. They are all ambiguous strategies. In the past, Americans estimated that China had "hundreds" of nuclear warheads. In the future, we need to make them obscure toward China. If China has already been defined as the main strategic competitor by the United States, and the United States continues to believe with certainty that China has only "hundreds" of nuclear warheads, then it will be dangerous for China.

China does not need an arms race with the United States, but as Washington ’s strategic will to suppress Beijing rises, our nuclear deterrence must increase. No matter what calculation model is used to derive the number of nuclear warheads China needs, this common sense logic needs to be their basis.

In 2006, two American scholars published an article in the Journal of Diplomacy, declaring that through calculations, the United States has the ability to destroy all the nuclear forces of China and Russia at once. If American policy makers and a large number of political elites also carry such self-confidence to promote and formulate policies to suppress China, it will be very bad.

Fourth, even if China wants to expand its nuclear arsenal, it should do nothing. China should not make a loud noise about it, Lao Hu agrees. However, it is possible to increase the nuclear warhead completely quietly. At a certain stage, it is possible to do so for a long time. Lao Hu objected. Nuclear weapons are used for deterrence. They are completely hidden and tucked away. How can they be used? At the Tiananmen military parade, the strategic missile team is the one that attracts the most attention every time, and that is what it shows to the outside world.

Please don't restrict what Chinese media people say. The spectrum of public opinion in China is too narrow, so that people like Lao Hu can make such a sensation by posting a post, which is very abnormal and not in the national interest of China. Let's see how many voices are directed at China from the United States every day, and how many voices can we make at the United States? Lao Hu just wants to say what I want in accordance with China's national interests. Whether Americans will worry about it or not, it is not my first consideration. If I want to think about something, I will think more about expanding the discourse space on China's side and increasing the public opinion resources of China's game against the United States. I feel that this time I express my mind directly, and it does not contradict my desire.

Finally, I want to say that I believe China will increase its nuclear warheads because China has no choice.
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[war is best form of peace]

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2020-05-12/doc-iircuyvi2662473.shtml

新一代巨浪导弹或研发成功 采用碳纤维壳体射程更远

新一代巨浪导弹或研发成功 采用碳纤维壳体射程更远



3,900

来源：小飞猪的防务观察

外界认为国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹或与法国M51相当或者相近
5月11日消息，根据《人力资源社会保障部 中国科协 科技部 国务院国资委关于评选第二届全国创新争先奖的通知》，水下发射大型固体运载火箭研制团队入选全国创新争先奖。外界认为此举表明国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹已经研制成功，我们手里又增加了一柄锐利的长剑。
众所周知，国产第一代巨浪1潜地导弹在上世纪80年代试射，第二代巨浪2潜地导弹首次试射则在新世纪之初。第一代距离已经快40年，第二个也接近20年，显然不会入选全国创新争先奖，因此外界推测此次获奖的应该是国产新一代潜巨浪地导弹。

国产巨浪1潜地导弹
国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹关键词是大直径，这说明它将大直径作为型号主要指标来考虑，并且取得了技术突破。潜射导弹是安装在潜艇之中，长度受到耐压壳直径限制，耐压壳直径越大，技术难度和成本越高，因此潜地导弹对于长度要求高于直径。此前国产潜地导弹长度超过国产战略导弹核潜艇直径，因此国产战略导弹核艇导弹舱突出艇体之外，破坏了潜艇线形，增加噪声和阻力。因此对于潜地导弹来说，需要尽可能减少导弹长度，但是提高射程又需要增加内部容积以容纳更多的推进剂，所以提高直径就成为首选。美国早期北极星A2潜地导弹长度为9.3米，直径为1.3米，现役三叉戟潜地导弹长度只增加到10.3米，直径却增加到1.9米。

国产巨浪2潜地导弹

国产094战略导弹核潜艇，注意它前部隆起，那就是导弹舱
从海外资料来看，国产巨浪2潜地导弹直径大约是2米，长度13米左右，射程大约8000-10000公里（携带载荷不同，导弹射程也会有变化）。从这个指标来看，巨浪2潜地导弹长度已经达到13米，现在潜艇耐压壳直径最大的是美国俄亥俄级战略核潜艇，它的直径也不过13米左右。考虑到技术难度、成本价格等方面因素，中国下一代战略导弹核潜艇耐压壳直径应该不会超过13米太多，所以国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹长度估计会控制在13米左右，为了增加射程，势必要增加直径，所以大直径就成为国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹的关键词。
外界曾经推测国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹大约与法国M51潜地导弹相当或者相近，后者长度为13米，直径为2.35米。M51潜地导弹最多可以搭载12个分导式子弹头，不过多数情况下只运载6个，此时最大射程为13000公里。2019年中国航天科工集团完成了国产大直径固体火箭发动机试车，它的直径达到了2.65米，已经超过了M51潜地导弹直径，这样国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹直径达到甚至超过M51潜地导弹也不是什么难事。

国产200吨固体火箭发动机，它的直径达到2.65米，黑色壳体表明它采用了碳纤维

M51潜地导弹就采用了碳纤维缠绕制成
国产200吨推力固体火箭发动机采用多项先进技术，其中有一项最为引人注目，那就是大直径碳纤维缠绕复合材料壳体技术，这应该是我们第一次公开已经掌握大型固体火箭发动机碳纤维缠绕复合材料壳体技术。这个技术也是M51潜地导弹关键技术之一，它让导弹重量更轻，射程更远。海外资料认为国产巨浪2潜地导弹固体火箭发动机壳体采用了芳纶，它的重量比金属要轻，但是碳纤维要重。进入新世纪，国产碳纤维水平突飞猛进，T800级碳纤维已经实现1000吨级生产能力，T1000也达到100吨级，M60J级碳纤维也研制成功，这表明国产碳纤维在三个重要方向（高强高模量、高强度、高模量）都实现了突破，从而为碳纤维在国产导弹和运载火箭上面运用打下了坚实的基础，因此可以推测国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹固体火箭发动机也采用了碳纤维壳体，重量更轻，射程更远。
从这里我们大致可以推测国产新一代巨浪潜地导弹或与法国M51潜地导弹相当或者相近，采用大直径固体火箭发动机，碳纤维壳体。在运载6枚分导式子弹头情况下，射程达到13000公里或者更远，在我国近海就能覆盖强敌主要目标。该型导弹服役之后，我们战略反击能力将会显著增强，更好维护国家安全和权益。



The new generation of giant wave missiles or the successful development of the carbon fiber shell has a longer range
The new generation of giant wave missiles or the successful development of the carbon fiber shell has a longer range
3,900

Source: Xiao Fei's defense observation

The outside world thinks that the new generation of domestic giant wave submarine missiles may be equivalent to or similar to the French M51

News on May 11, according to the "Notice on the Selection of the Second National Innovation Competition Award" of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Science and Technology of the State Council of the State Council, the underwater solid launch vehicle development team was selected as the National Innovation Competition Award. The outside world believes that this move shows that a new generation of domestic giant wave submarine missile has been successfully developed, and we have added a sharp sword.

As we all know, the first-generation domestic JL-1 submarine missile was tested in the 1980s, and the second-generation JL-2 submarine missile was first tested at the beginning of the new century. The first generation is nearly 40 years away, and the second is also close to 20 years. Obviously, it will not be selected as the national innovation competition award, so the outside world speculates that this award should be a new generation of domestic submarine giant wave ground missile.

Domestic giant wave 1 submerged surface missile

The key word of the new generation of domestic giant wave submarine missile is large diameter, which shows that it considers large diameter as the main index of the model and has made technical breakthroughs. Submarine-launched missiles are installed in submarines, and the length is limited by the diameter of the pressure shell. The larger the diameter of the pressure shell, the higher the technical difficulty and cost. Therefore, the length of the submarine missile is higher than the diameter. Previously, the length of the domestic submarine-launched missile exceeded the diameter of the domestic strategic missile nuclear submarine. Therefore, the missile compartment of the domestic strategic missile nuclear boat protruded beyond the hull, destroying the submarine's line shape, increasing noise and drag. Therefore, for submarine missiles, it is necessary to reduce the length of the missile as much as possible, but increasing the range requires increasing the internal volume to accommodate more propellant, so increasing the diameter becomes the first choice. The early American Polaris A2 subsurface missile was 9.3 meters in length and 1.3 meters in diameter. The length of the active Trident submarine missile increased only to 10.3 meters, but its diameter increased to 1.9 meters.

Domestic giant wave 2 submerged surface missile

Domestic 094 strategic missile nuclear submarine, pay attention to its front bulge, that is the missile compartment

Judging from overseas data, the domestic JL-2 submarine missile has a diameter of about 2 meters, a length of about 13 meters, and a range of about 8000-10000 kilometers (the range of the missile will also vary depending on the carrying load). Judging from this indicator, the length of the Julang 2 subsurface missile has reached 13 meters. The largest diameter of the submarine's pressure shell is the Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarine in the United States. Its diameter is only about 13 meters. Taking into account factors such as technical difficulty, cost and price, the diameter of the pressure shell of China's next-generation strategic missile nuclear submarine should not exceed 13 meters, so the length of the domestic new-generation Julang submarine missile is estimated to be controlled at about 13 meters. The range is bound to increase in diameter, so large diameter has become the key word for the new generation of domestic giant wave submarine missiles.

The outside world once speculated that the new generation of domestic giant wave submarine missile is about the same as or similar to the French M51 submarine missile. The latter has a length of 13 meters and a diameter of 2.35 meters. The M51 submarine missile can carry up to 12 sub-guided bullets, but in most cases only 6 are carried. At this time, the maximum range is 13,000 kilometers. In 2019, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation completed the test run of a domestic large-diameter solid rocket engine. Its diameter has reached 2.65 meters, which has exceeded the diameter of the M51 submerged missile. Missiles are not difficult.

Domestic 200-ton solid rocket engine, its diameter reaches 2.65 meters, the black shell indicates that it uses carbon fiber

M51 submarine missile is made of carbon fiber winding

The domestic 200-ton thrust solid rocket motor adopts a number of advanced technologies, one of which is most notable is the large-diameter carbon fiber winding composite material shell technology. This should be the first time that we have mastered the large solid rocket motor carbon fiber winding composite. Material shell technology. This technology is also one of the key technologies of the M51 submarine missile. It makes the missile lighter and has a longer range. According to overseas sources, the shell of the solid rocket engine of the domestic JL-2 submarine missile is made of aramid, which is lighter than metal but heavier than carbon fiber. In the new century, the level of domestic carbon fiber has advanced by leaps and bounds. T800 grade carbon fiber has achieved a production capacity of 1,000 tons, T1000 has reached 100 tons, and M60J grade carbon fiber has also been successfully developed, which shows that domestic carbon fiber has three important directions (high strength, high modulus, high Strength and high modulus) have achieved breakthroughs, which laid a solid foundation for the use of carbon fiber on domestic missiles and launch vehicles. Therefore, it can be speculated that the domestic new generation of giant wave submarine missile solid rocket engines also use a carbon fiber shell, weight Lighter and longer range.

From here, we can roughly speculate that the new generation of domestic giant wave submarine missile is equivalent to or similar to the French M51 submarine missile, using a large-diameter solid rocket engine and a carbon fiber shell. In the case of carrying 6 sub-guided bullets, the range reaches 13,000 kilometers or more, and it can cover the main targets of the strong enemy in China's offshore waters. After this type of missile is in service, our strategic counterattack capability will be significantly enhanced to better safeguard national security and rights.

 

[war is best form of peace]

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2020-05-13/doc-iircuyvi2825837.shtml

中国核弹头是否需要增加到1000枚？有一件事更重要

2020年05月13日 10:34 新浪军事 作者：石江月



517

来源：石江月
中国应短时间内把核弹头增加到1000枚！
《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进先生日前提出的这个话题，在中国舆论场这几天非常火爆！关于中国核武器数量和增加的必要性，大家都有不少观点。而且，有些观点之间分歧非常大，争论也非常多。

那么，对于这种“中国需要1000枚核弹头”的观点，美国媒体和专家怎么看？
另外，中国的核弹头发展应该维持在多少数量比较合适？发展过程中应该考虑什么因素？
本人认为在当前国际背景下，中国核武需适当增加，但更重要的是技术质量必须加快更新换代。
美国人认为这是舆论战
米切尔·布拉特，《国家利益》杂志撰稿人。
对于《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进发出声音，呼吁中国“在相对较短的时间内将核弹头数量增加到1000枚”，并“弥补与美国的核差距”，米切尔·布拉特认为，“中国不打算在短期内增加核弹头库存，使其与美国持平。最大的目的可能是在舆论上展开一种博弈战术，以便与现任总统特朗普领导下的美国竞争”。
《纽约时报》则发表了一篇文章援引分析人士的一些看法，主要观点是中国“扩大核武库”的呼声主要是针对美国的那些“战争贩子”。美国继续在东海上空部署B-1B轰炸机，五角大楼还抛出一份计划，宣称要在太平洋地区部署陆基“战斧”巡航导弹武装美国在亚太地区的海军陆战队。
这些都被认为是中国方面提高警惕的原因。

美国2020年国防预算已经明确提出要求，在海军的战略核潜艇上部署W76-2低当量核弹头，这一提议与前两年的《美国2018年核态势评估报告》是一致的。而《环球时报》过去一直对此变化发出警示。
此外，白宫还继续试图推动与俄罗斯签署新的军备控制条约，但是条件是把中国纳入进来。
“如果美国对中国发动核战争，它必须没有任何获胜的机会——这就是中国必须确保的核威慑力量。”很显然，对中国来说，这应该成为一个总的原则。相信绝大多数中国人是支持的，没有异议的。
在此之后，中国也有不少军事专家表达自己的观点，支持增加核弹头数量的立场——面对外部环境的变化和威胁意味的上升，中国将不得不扩大自己的核武库。但是，这些军事专家基本都没有明确提到，是否应该增加到1000枚或者更多。
米切尔·布拉特
美国《国家利益》杂志的文章认为，从前看中国很可能打算扩大核武库，但预测数字更多的是几百枚，而不是几千枚。相比之下，美国有3800枚现役弹头，部署了1600枚。当前，中国也在现代化其核武库，使用远程导弹和加强其核导弹三位一体威慑力量中的薄弱环节，但这种现代化更多关乎质量，而不仅仅是数量。
《国家利益》杂志的文章认为，在中国的社交媒体上关于战略话题的热度越来越高，突出反映了中国媒体战略的变化。逐渐重视通过西方社交媒体向世界传达他们的观点，并迅速传播开来。
中国对外的沟通方式也在改变，这些都不仅是为了说服别人，也是为了引起别人的注意。

在特朗普执政初期，中国的社交媒体上曾流传着这样一个说法：中国网民去关注奥巴马总统的Twitter账号，是为了练习英语；现在当他们看到特朗普总统的推特，他们认为自己的英语已经足够好了！但中国人开始从@realDonaldTrump那里学习社交媒体策略。
美国学者认为，提高核弹头产量的呼吁并不反映官方政策，但确实反映了一种情绪。中国部分精英人士和许多爱国的中国网民感到他们正在被美国围堵。在中国社交媒体上，很多朴素的爱国者已经加入到这个队伍中来。
核弹头建造应考虑四个因素
中国到底应该发展多少核弹头？
这其实是一个非常复杂的问题。在目睹了冷战时期美苏掀起的核军备竞赛，给国家发展和世界安全所带来的深刻影响之后，多年来中国领导人在发展核武器方面定下的原则是“少而精”，一直保持非常克制的态度。
比如，1958年6月21日，毛泽东主席在中央军委扩大会议上，再次强调要搞原子弹等战略武器，他说：“那个原子弹，听说就那么大一个东西，没有那个东西，人家就说你不算数。那么好，我们就搞一点。搞一点原子弹、氢弹、洲际导弹，我看有十年功夫是完全可能的。”

1967年6月17 日，中国第一颗全当量氢弹空爆试验成功。当天深夜，新华社向全世界播发了毛泽东亲自审批的《新闻公报》。
公报重申了中国政府一贯的立场：“中国进行必要而有限制的核试验，发展核武器，完全是为了防御，其最终目的就是为了消灭核武器。”“在任何时候、任何情况下，中国都不会首先使用核武器。”
所以，关于中国目前是不是应该进一步提升核弹头的数量，必须先考虑几个因素。
首先，从数量上看，现在世界上有核国家9个，其中美囯和俄罗斯都在6000枚核弹头以上，占全部核弹的90%以上。冷战时期美苏更加疯狂，曾经发展过数万枚各种核弹头，但是现在基本上已经回落到各自日常部署大约在1500枚左右。还有4000到5000枚处于备用状态。

目前世界公开的弹头数量不到10%，约1000枚由包括中国在内的另6个核国家拥有。美国智库原子能科学家协会的评估认为，中国的核弹头不到300枚。比法国还少，位列第四。可见我国拥核数与美俄两个核大国根本不在同一个数量级上。
第二，从国际环境上看，美俄之间现存的核武协定是《新削减战略武器条约》（New START），由前美国总统奥巴马和前任俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫于2010年签署。该条约限制签约国最多部署1550枚核弹头，和700枚部署的导弹及轰炸机，并设想现场检查双方是否遵守合约。
《新削减战略武器条约》将于2021年到期，但是美国希望拟定新的裁军合约，以便纳入中国。但是，中国和俄罗斯都不同意这种立场。中国外交部发言人多次表示，美国这种说法根本不成立，中国现有的核弹头数量没法跟美国相比，也不可能进入谈判程序。

眼下，美国特朗普政府更多是以《新削减战略武器条约》《中导条约》作为借口，使得自己能够突破这两个条约的限制，重新大力发展自己的战略核武器，包括中程导弹和战术核武器。
第三，从发展和使用原则上看，我们的立场基本上是“不首先使用，数量上够用就行”。不首先使用，说明我们有发动二次核反击的能力与自信，毕竟中国的核弹头突破防御的技术和运载工具的能力，都在大幅度提升。
数量上够用就行，说明我们不希望陷入核军备竞赛。生产制造核弹和运载工具需要花不少钱，和平时期部署、维护核武器的安全更是天价，而且核燃料这东西不停地衰变，处置保管起来非常麻烦。处置不好会给造成严重事故。
根据“默虹美海军学习小站”微信公号的资料，美国布鲁金斯学会专门做了个课题，1998年出版了一本700页的专著《原子审核：1940年以来美国核武器的成本与后果》，为我们解释了核武器的实际运作成本。
1940-1996年近50年时间，以1996年不变美元价格计算，美国在核武器上花费了5.48万亿美元，如果再加上1996年以后的3200亿核废料后处理费用，总成本将超过5.8万亿。而5.8万亿是是什么概念呢？占到这50年美国总军费的29%。

而在费用开销的分布方面，制造核弹头只是一小部分。根据布鲁金斯学会的这份报告，核弹头制造只占7%（约4090亿美元，具体的弹头研发、测试、制造）；核弹头部署是大头，占57%（主要就是各种载具，导弹、轰炸机、潜艇及其配套的空军机场、潜艇基地、导弹井等，部队训练、战备）。
其次，防御对手的核打击占16.1%（抵御对核力量的袭击，如核基地防空、反恐，战略潜艇的自我防御等）；预警通讯指挥控制占14.3%（末日地堡、各级指挥所、加密光缆、战略卫星等）。
剩余的，核弹拆解占0.5%，核废料处理占6.3%，受害者治疗占0.04%，核安全占0.05%，国会监管费用占0.02%。
可以看到，造核弹头、日常核弹头维护保养的花费很少，更多的钱是还在载具（轰炸机、导弹、核潜艇等）、通讯指挥控制系统，以及整个体系的运营、保障、人头费上。

看看苏联解体后，由于哈萨克斯坦位于苏联的腹地，苏联将大批战略火箭军和战略轰炸机基地部署在哈萨克斯坦境内，很多核弹头和核武器都留在哈萨克斯坦。所以苏联解体时，哈萨克斯坦光“撒旦”SS-18洲际弹道导弹就有104枚，核弹头1400枚。
根据当时的世界核武器国家排名，哈萨克斯坦位于美国、俄罗斯、乌克兰之后，成为世界第四核大国。但是纳扎尔巴耶夫很明智，知道自己的国家无力维持，所以都交出来销毁了。前苏联很多核潜艇提前退役，无法处置，只能当废铜烂铁卖掉都无人问津。这个情况我们要避免。
第四，当前中美竞争的大背景提醒我们，必须加强核威慑力，这样才能有足够的底气。但是，也要在数量发展上坚持适当原则。从大国地位、实力和核弹拥有数两个方面来看，我国都有一定幅度增加核弹头的必要。
毕竟现在导弹预警和拦截能力，与几十年前相比相差太大，光有核弹头其实没有用，更重要的是运载投射工具（也就是战略核潜艇，洲际导弹）。但是，对手预警拦截能力的提升，让我们必须考虑增加一定数量的核弹和运载工具，维持这个动态平衡，保证有效的核威慑。
核力量发展，更该优先做什么？
中国拥有多少核弹头，才能保障国家安全，让对手不敢对中国动手？
这可能是中国网民最为关心的问题之一。
与此同时，西方的媒体和智库也经常对中国核武的“质和量”，抛出各种猜测。
比如，2014年11月美国国会美中经济与安全评估委员会渲染“未来15年，中国能打到美国的洲际弹道核导弹很有可能超过100枚”。还有的西方学者声称中国要部署（高戒备）600个核弹头载体才能在安全问题上放下心。

之所以这种猜测各式各样，主要原因是美俄的核弹头数量领先其他的有核国家太多，空间太大。根据美国智库的评估，美俄的核弹头数量各自大约在6000枚左右，而英国法国中国的核弹数量都在200到300之间。
美国国防情报局（DIA）最新的评估报告认为，未来10年中国的核弹头数量可能会增加一倍，从估计的逾250枚增加到约500枚或600枚。
《简氏防务周刊》的分析人士说得更加宏观一些，“中国的核武力量日趋科技尖端化，求精不求多”。
这其实涉及到一个重要问题——只有实现导弹与原子弹的结合，才能组成具有实战价值的核武器。
原子弹如果仅靠飞机从敌人头顶上投放，保险系数低，核武器没有多少实战价值。1964年我国原子弹爆炸成功后，西方国家曾讥笑我国“有弹无枪”，因为导弹是原子弹的“枪”，只有靠中远程导弹将核弹头发射出去，核武器才能形成实战价值。
这个“枪”的水平到底怎样，决定了你的核弹是否能真正威慑到敌人。尤其是，当前美国正在组建新一代太空预警卫星系统，获得信息和处理信息的速度更快。同时，美国的反导拦截能力也越来越厉害。这都要求我们，在发展更多的“弹”时，也必须把“枪”的能力和使用技巧大幅度提升。

2017年美国知名智库詹姆斯敦基金会刊登了一篇研究报告，声称中国军方正在研发的轰-20将与新式096战略核潜艇形成“三位一体”核威慑的海、空两个支柱，一旦两者于几年内陆续服役，将令中国成为具有远程核威慑力量的军事大国。
过去10年中国在海空军武力投送方面虽有大幅提升，例如外界注意到解放军发展歼-10B/C与歼-15、歼-16等多功能战斗机，甚至已成功研发出新一代的歼-20、歼-31隐形战机与运-20运输机，但整体上还只能算是防御性部队。
因为目前发展的都还是以防御为主体思维的战斗机，只有小部分是进攻性或多用途的型号。与其他军事大国队相比，解放军空军仍缺乏远距投送武力的能力，尤其是战略空运、空中加油机和新一代战略轰炸机还需要提升。
报告认为，到本世纪20年代中期，此种新型轰炸机完成研制并可望正式服役，到时候中国将真正拥有战略空军，并以此作为三位一体核威慑的一部分，以挑战美国在太平洋地区的统治地位。

此外，最重要的是，随着美国发展低当量核武器，降低了核武器在战场上使用的门槛，以及高超音速武器的越来越多地投入现役，我们必须尽快提升核武器的技术质量，从另一个方面保证有效的核威慑。
核武出现之后的数十年时间里，世界各国对于核武器的战略定位共同指向一个观点——威慑力。更多的国家通过掌握核武器成为军事强国，无形中让原子弹、氢弹主要任务成为战略核威慑的代名词。
但是这种“核武只是放在洞库里的战略威慑”的观点正在被打破。这才是当前最紧迫的事情。
美国正在“田纳西”号战略核潜艇上部署的低当量核弹头，就是一种未来可能投入实战的核武器。爆炸当量在5000吨TNT左右，控制杀伤范围。我们必须对此高度警惕并跟上步伐！
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Does China need to increase its nuclear warheads to 1,000? One thing is more important
2020 at 10:34 on May 13 Sina military Author: Shi Jiang month
517

Source: Shi Jiangyue

China should increase the number of nuclear warheads to 1,000 in a short time!

"Global Times" editor-in-chief Mr. Hu Xijin raised this topic a few days ago, in the Chinese public opinion field very hot these days! Regarding the number of Chinese nuclear weapons and the need for an increase, everyone has many opinions. Moreover, some views are very different, and there are many arguments.

So, what do the American media and experts think of this view that "China needs 1,000 nuclear warheads"?

In addition, what is the appropriate number of China's nuclear warhead development to maintain? What factors should be considered in the development process?

I believe that in the current international context, China's nuclear weapons need to be increased appropriately, but more importantly, the quality of technology must be accelerated and replaced.

Americans think this is a war of public opinion

Mitchell Blatter, contributor to National Interest magazine.

Regarding Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, called on China to "in a relatively short period of time increase the number of nuclear warheads to 1,000" and "make up the nuclear gap with the United States," Mitchell Blatter believes, " China does not intend to increase its stock of nuclear warheads in the short term to keep it level with the United States. The biggest purpose may be to develop a game tactic in public opinion in order to compete with the United States under the leadership of the current President Trump. "

The New York Times published an article citing some of the views of analysts. The main point is that China ’s call for “expanding nuclear arsenals” is mainly aimed at those “war dealers” in the United States. The United States continues to deploy B-1B bombers over the East Sea, and the Pentagon has also thrown out a plan declaring that it will deploy land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles in the Pacific to arm the United States Marine Corps in the Asia-Pacific region.

These are considered to be the reasons for China's increased vigilance.

The US 2020 national defense budget has clearly requested that the W76-2 low-equivalent nuclear warhead be deployed on the Navy's strategic nuclear submarines. This proposal is consistent with the "US Nuclear Nuclear Assessment Report 2018" two years ago. The Global Times has warned of this change in the past.

In addition, the White House continues to try to promote the signing of a new arms control treaty with Russia, but only if China is included.

"If the United States launches a nuclear war against China, it must have no chance of winning-this is the nuclear deterrent that China must ensure." Obviously, for China, this should become a general principle. I believe that the vast majority of Chinese people support it and have no objections.

After this, many military experts in China expressed their views and supported the position of increasing the number of nuclear warheads. In the face of changes in the external environment and rising threat, China will have to expand its nuclear arsenal. However, these military experts basically did not explicitly mention whether it should be increased to 1,000 or more.

Mitchell Blatter

An article in the US National Interest magazine believes that in the past, China is likely to intend to expand its nuclear arsenal, but the forecast number is more than a few hundred, not thousands. In comparison, the United States has 3,800 active warheads and 1,600 deployed. At present, China is also modernizing its nuclear arsenal, using long-range missiles and strengthening the weak link in its nuclear defensive trinity, but this modernization is more about quality than just quantity.

"National Interest" magazine article believes that China's social media has become more and more popular on strategic topics, highlighting the changes in China's media strategy. Gradually attach importance to communicating their views to the world through Western social media, and quickly spread it.

China's external communication methods are also changing, these are not only to persuade others, but also to attract others' attention.

In the early days of Trump ’s administration, there was a saying on Chinese social media: Chinese netizens followed President Obama ’s Twitter account to practice English; now when they see President Trump ’s Twitter, they think they are English is good enough! But the Chinese began to learn social media strategies from @realDonaldTrump.

American scholars believe that the call to increase the production of nuclear warheads does not reflect official policy, but it does reflect a sentiment. Some Chinese elites and many patriotic Chinese netizens feel they are being surrounded by the United States. On Chinese social media, many plain patriots have joined the team.

Nuclear warhead construction should consider four factors

How many nuclear warheads should China develop?

This is actually a very complicated question. After witnessing the profound impact of the US-Soviet nuclear arms race during the Cold War on national development and world security, the principle set by Chinese leaders over the years in the development of nuclear weapons is "less and refined", which has remained very Restrained attitude.

For example, on June 21, 1958, Chairman Mao Zedong once again emphasized the need to engage in atomic weapons and other strategic weapons at the Central Military Commission ’s enlarged meeting. It ’s not counting. So good, let ’s do a little bit. I think a little bit of atomic bombs, hydrogen bombs, and intercontinental missiles, I think it ’s entirely possible with ten years of effort. ”

On June 17, 1967, China's first full-equivalent hydrogen bomb air explosion test was successful. Late that night, Xinhua News Agency broadcast the "News Bulletin" that Mao Zedong personally approved.

The communiqué reiterated the Chinese government ’s consistent position: "China conducts necessary and limited nuclear tests and develops nuclear weapons solely for defense, and its ultimate purpose is to eliminate nuclear weapons." "At any time and under any circumstances, China will not Use nuclear weapons first. "

Therefore, whether China should further increase the number of nuclear warheads, we must first consider several factors.

First of all, in terms of quantity, there are now 9 nuclear countries in the world, of which the United States and Russia have more than 6,000 nuclear warheads, accounting for more than 90% of all nuclear bombs. During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union were even more crazy. They had developed tens of thousands of various nuclear warheads, but now they have basically fallen back to their daily deployment of about 1,500. There are also 4000 to 5000 pieces in standby.

Currently, the number of warheads disclosed in the world is less than 10%, and about 1,000 are owned by six other nuclear countries including China. According to an assessment by the American Think Tank Atomic Energy Scientists Association, China has fewer than 300 nuclear warheads. Less than France, ranking fourth. It can be seen that China's nuclear holdings are not on the same order of magnitude as the two nuclear powers of the United States and Russia.

Second, from an international perspective, the existing nuclear weapons agreement between the United States and Russia is the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), signed in 2010 by former US President Barack Obama and former Russian President Medvedev. The treaty restricts signing countries from deploying up to 1,550 nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, and envisages on-site inspection of whether the two parties have complied with the contract.

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty will expire in 2021, but the United States hopes to draw up new disarmament contracts for inclusion in China. However, neither China nor Russia agree with this position. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly stated that this argument by the United States is simply unfounded. China ’s current number of nuclear warheads cannot be compared with that of the United States, nor is it possible to enter the negotiation process.

Right now, the Trump administration in the United States has more often used the "New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty" and the "Guidance Treaty" as an excuse to enable it to break through the limitations of these two treaties and vigorously develop its own strategic nuclear weapons, including medium-range missiles and Tactical nuclear weapons.

Thirdly, from the principle of development and use, our position is basically "no first use, enough in quantity". Not using it first shows that we have the ability and self-confidence to launch a second nuclear counterattack. After all, China ’s nuclear warheads ’breakthrough defense technology and delivery vehicle capabilities have been greatly improved.

Is sufficient in quantity, indicating that we do not want to fall into the nuclear arms race. It takes a lot of money to produce nuclear bombs and delivery vehicles. It is even more expensive to deploy and maintain the safety of nuclear weapons in peacetime. In addition, nuclear fuel decays constantly, and it is very troublesome to dispose of and store it. Poor disposal can cause serious accidents.

According to the WeChat account of the "Meihongmei Naval Learning Station", the Brookings Institution of the United States made a special topic. In 1998, it published a 700-page monograph "Atomic Audit: The Cost and Cost of US Nuclear Weapons since 1940. "Consequence" explains the actual operating cost of nuclear weapons for us.

In the past 50 years from 1940 to 1996, at the constant dollar price in 1996, the United States spent $ 5.48 trillion on nuclear weapons. If we add the post-1996 nuclear waste reprocessing costs of 320 billion, the total cost will exceed 5.8 Trillion. And what is the concept of 5.8 trillion? It accounted for 29% of the total US military expenditure in the past 50 years.

In terms of the distribution of expenses, the manufacture of nuclear warheads is only a small part. According to the report of the Brookings Institution, nuclear warhead manufacturing accounts for only 7% (about 409 billion US dollars, specific warhead development, testing, and manufacturing); nuclear warhead deployment is the big head, accounting for 57% (mainly various vehicles, missiles , Bomber, submarine and its supporting air force airport, submarine base, missile well, etc., army training, combat readiness).

Secondly, nuclear strikes against defensive opponents accounted for 16.1% (to resist attacks against nuclear forces, such as nuclear base air defense, anti-terrorism, strategic submarine self-defense, etc.); early warning communications command and control accounted for 14.3% (doom bunkers, command posts at all levels, encryption Optical cables, strategic satellites, etc.).

For the remainder, nuclear bomb dismantling accounts for 0.5%, nuclear waste disposal accounts for 6.3%, victim treatment accounts for 0.04%, nuclear safety accounts for 0.05%, and Congressional supervision costs account for 0.02%.

It can be seen that the cost of making nuclear warheads and routine maintenance of nuclear warheads is very small. More money is still spent on vehicles (bombers, missiles, nuclear submarines, etc.), communications command and control systems, and the operation, support, and cost of the entire system. .

After looking at the disintegration of the Soviet Union, because Kazakhstan is located in the hinterland of the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union deployed a large number of strategic rocket forces and strategic bomber bases in Kazakhstan, and many nuclear warheads and nuclear weapons remained in Kazakhstan. Therefore, when the Soviet Union disintegrated, there were 104 Kazakhstan "Satan" SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missiles and 1,400 nuclear warheads.

According to the ranking of the world's nuclear-weapon states at that time, Kazakhstan was behind the United States, Russia, and Ukraine and became the world's fourth nuclear power. But Nazarbayev was wise and knew that his country was unable to maintain it, so he handed it over and destroyed it. Many nuclear submarines in the former Soviet Union were retired in advance and could not be disposed of. No one was interested only when the scrap copper was sold. We must avoid this situation.

Fourthly, the current background of Sino-US competition reminds us that we must strengthen nuclear deterrence in order to have enough confidence. However, it is also necessary to adhere to appropriate principles in quantitative development. Judging from the two aspects of great power status, strength, and the number of nuclear bombs, our country has the need to increase its nuclear warhead to a certain extent.

After all, the missile early warning and interception capabilities are very different from those of a few decades ago. Nuclear warheads alone are actually useless, and more importantly, they carry projection tools (that is, strategic nuclear submarines, intercontinental missiles). However, the improvement of adversary's early warning and interception capabilities requires us to consider adding a certain number of nuclear bombs and delivery vehicles to maintain this dynamic balance and ensure effective nuclear deterrence.

What should be the priority for the development of nuclear power?

How many nuclear warheads does China have to ensure national security and prevent its opponents from dare to attack China?

This may be one of the issues that Chinese netizens are most concerned about.

At the same time, Western media and think tanks often throw various speculations about the "quality and quantity" of China's nuclear weapons.

For example, in November 2014, the US Congress's US-China Economic and Security Evaluation Committee rendered that "in the next 15 years, China will likely hit the United States with more than 100 intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles." Other Western scholars claim that China needs to deploy (high alert) 600 nuclear warhead carriers in order to rest assured of security issues.

The reason for this variety of speculation is mainly because the number of nuclear warheads in the United States and Russia is too much ahead of other nuclear-weapon countries, and the space is too large. According to the assessment of the American think tank, the number of nuclear warheads in the United States and Russia is about 6,000, while the number of nuclear bombs in Britain, France and China is between 200 and 300.

The latest assessment report of the US National Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) believes that the number of nuclear warheads in China may double from the estimated more than 250 to about 500 or 600 in the next 10 years.

Analysts in Jane ’s Defense Weekly put it more macroscopically, “China ’s nuclear forces are becoming more and more sophisticated in science and technology, and do not seek more refinement.”

This actually involves an important issue-only the combination of missiles and atomic bombs can form a nuclear weapon with actual combat value.

If the atomic bomb is dropped from above the enemy's head only by plane, the insurance factor is low, and nuclear weapons have little actual combat value. After the success of China's atomic bomb in 1964, Western countries ridiculed China's "bomb with no guns" because missiles are "guns" for atomic bombs. Only by launching nuclear warheads with medium- and long-range missiles can nuclear weapons form actual combat value.

The level of this "gun" determines whether your nuclear bomb can really deter the enemy. In particular, the United States is currently building a new generation of space early warning satellite systems, which can obtain information and process information faster. At the same time, the anti-missile interception capability of the United States is becoming more and more powerful. All of this requires us to greatly improve the ability and use skills of "guns" when developing more "bombs".

In 2017, the Jamestown Foundation, a well-known U.S. think tank, published a research report claiming that the H-20 developed by the Chinese military and the new 096 strategic nuclear submarine will form the "trinity" nuclear deterrence of the two pillars of sea and air. Successive service within a few years will make China a military power with a long-range nuclear deterrent.

In the past 10 years, China has greatly improved its naval and air force delivery. For example, the outside world has noticed that the PLA has developed J-10B / C and J-15, J-16 and other multi-functional fighters, and has even successfully developed a new generation of J- 20. The J-31 stealth fighter and the Yun-20 transport aircraft, but on the whole, they can only be regarded as defensive forces.

Because the current development is still a defense-oriented fighter, only a small part is offensive or multi-purpose model. Compared with other major military teams, the PLA Air Force still lacks the ability to deliver force at long distances, especially strategic air transport, aerial refueling aircraft, and a new generation of strategic bombers.

The report believes that by the mid-twentieth century, this new type of bomber will be completed and is expected to be officially in service. By then China will truly have a strategic air force as a part of the Trinity nuclear deterrence to challenge US dominance in the Pacific .

Furthermore, the most important thing is that as the United States develops low-equivalent nuclear weapons, the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield has been reduced,

 

[war is best form of peace]

I say China should make 10,000 Nuke war heads especially the high technological level hypersonic HGV gliders which USA can NEVER INTERCEPT, and pump multiple miniature nuke warheads inside. This way you can cover way better and be ultra effective and efficient, they can TOTALLY FORGET ABOUT INTERCEPTION. Reduce wastage.

Huge Warheads make huge wastage, because lots of lethal energies are wasted in over-killing dispense. You need only to kill the enemies, not cremate them FOC. Huge Nuke not only vaporize them but even ionize them. This is way over-kill. Wasted.

Multiple miniature warheads can better fit the coverage area. Fit the contour of target (cities) area and miss out the useless areas like lakes inside cities or e.g. Hudson River in NY City. Instead of nuking NY with a huge hydrogen warhead, you rather pop a dozen miniature warheads in each desirable neighborhoods, missing the unnecessary areas, this way it would make interception an impossible dream.

 

[war is best form of peace]

https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/jssd/2020-05-11/doc-iirczymk1033995.shtml

美高官称将全力升级核武库 中国核武器的数量够用吗

美高官称将全力升级核武库 中国核武器的数量够用吗



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作者署名：笑天

日前，美国防长和国家核安全局官员纷纷表示，尽管面临新冠的疫情的影响，但仍将继续升级核武库。那么对核弹头数量有限的中国来说，能否对升级后的美国核武库构成有效的威慑呢？
美媒：将不受疫情影响继续升级核武库
据美国《防务新闻》网站报道， 美国高级核安全官员表示，尽管面临新冠肺炎带来的挑战，但美国必须升级核武库。
在美国的升级计划中，要求增加用于核武器生产的钚产量，这项工作将在新墨西哥州的洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室和南卡罗来纳州的萨凡纳河工厂两个地点进行。
美国国家核安全局官员哈格蒂表示，钚设施的生产任务是国家安全事务的重中之重，正在按照国会的指示进行。我们必须推进这个项目，以达到国防部的要求。多年来联邦政府一直在推动恢复钚芯生产，称美国需要确保其核武库的稳定和可靠。国家核安全局表示，库存中的大多数钚芯都是在20世纪70年代和80年代生产的。特朗普此前已经下令升级国家核力量，数十年来首次在国内恢复了核武战斗部钚芯的生产。

而此前，美国国防部长马克·埃斯珀曾表示，在经济低迷的背景下国防预算可能遭到削减，但不会影响国家核武库的升级进程。埃斯珀说：“我们不会允许战略遏制武器库承担风险，必须对其进行升级。”埃斯珀表示：“考虑到中国当前的发展阶段和俄罗斯未来数年的前进方向，这很重要。”
在美国公布的2021财年度预算案中，军费预算将增至7405亿美元，增幅为0.3%。但国家核安全管理局预算则增加了19%。
中国核武器够用吗
上周，《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进在微博上提出：要增加部署100枚东风-41导弹和1000个核弹头，来抑制美国的战略野心和对华冲动。此言一出就引发了网络热议，成了一个全民热点话题，那么中国的核武器现状如何，应该扩充核弹头吗？

关于中国核弹头的数量，官方始终未公开，表态也只是，“核武器完全用于自卫，从不对任何国家进行核威胁”。但根据瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所发布的报告称，中国核弹头的数量有290枚。远不及美国的6185枚和俄罗斯的6500枚。除了核弹头数量有限外，中国目前的远程和洲际弹道导弹数量也严重不足，而且像东风5这样的老导弹性能有限。此外中国的海基和空基的战略核力量都还很薄弱，与美俄相差甚远。

现在，美国正积极发展新一代核武器和加快部署反导系统，对中国的威胁无疑变得更大。美国10万人以上人口的城市超300座，再加上其它重要枢纽，中国如果要对美国进行全方位的核反击，据推算至少需要有400枚能打到美国本土的核弹头才可以。而目前美军又在亚太地区编织一张反导系统的大网，试想未来美军如果大量生产部署反导拦截弹，数量一旦超过中国核弹头，后果将变得很严重。随着美军反导作战能力和新一代核武器带来的打击能力的双重提升，中国核力量能否在未来美国核武库实现更新换代后，继续满足“最低核威慑”的需求恐怕前景并不乐观。
当然，如果按胡总编的观点，迅速扩充核武库，大规模的增加核弹头数量，对中国而言也并不是一个最佳的选项。回顾冷战时期，苏联的核弹头数量后来居上，甚至远超过了美国，然而这么多核弹头带来的并非是美国对苏联态度的软化，最后反而由于各种内部原因导致苏联解体了。冷战后，尽管俄罗斯的核武数量也比美国多，但也并未完全起到吓阻美国军事挑衅的作用。至今，美国仍在不断通过北约东扩侵蚀俄罗斯的“传统势力范围”，压减其生存空间。而且军舰、战机也频繁抵近俄家门口常态化侦察。

所以，中国需要做的是提升核武器质量，发展核武器的生存和突防能力，并适当增加核弹头数量。同时也要在陆海空天等各军事技术的前沿领域齐头并进，发展常规武器的质量和规模，这样才能确保对美进行有限的核威慑。

U.S. senior officials say they will do their utmost to upgrade the nuclear arsenal
U.S. senior officials say they will do their utmost to upgrade the nuclear arsenal
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Author signature: Xiaotian

Recently, the US Defense Secretary and National Nuclear Security Administration officials have stated that despite the impact of the new crown epidemic, they will continue to upgrade their nuclear arsenals. So for China with a limited number of nuclear warheads, can it constitute an effective deterrent to the upgraded US nuclear arsenal?

US media: will continue to upgrade nuclear arsenals without being affected by the epidemic

According to the US Defense News website, senior US nuclear security officials said that despite facing the challenges brought about by the new coronary pneumonia, the US must upgrade its nuclear arsenal.

In the upgrade plan of the United States, it is required to increase the production of plutonium for nuclear weapons production. This work will be carried out at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico and the Savannah River Plant in South Carolina.

National Nuclear Security Administration official Hagerty said that the production task of the plutonium facility is the top priority of national security affairs and is being carried out in accordance with the instructions of the Congress. We must advance this project to meet the requirements of the Ministry of Defense. The federal government has been promoting the resumption of plutonium core production for many years, saying that the United States needs to ensure the stability and reliability of its nuclear arsenal. The National Nuclear Security Administration stated that most of the plutonium cores in the inventory were produced in the 1970s and 1980s. Trump had previously ordered the upgrade of the national nuclear power, and for the first time in decades, the production of plutonium cores in the nuclear warhead was resumed in the country.

Previously, US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper had stated that the defense budget may be reduced in the context of economic downturn, but it will not affect the upgrade process of the national nuclear arsenal. Esper said: "We will not allow strategic containment of the arsenal to take risks, we must upgrade it." Esper said: "Considering China's current development stage and Russia's future direction in the next few years, this is very important. "

In the budget for fiscal year 2021 announced by the United States, the military budget will increase to US $ 740.5 billion, an increase of 0.3%. But the budget of the National Nuclear Safety Administration increased by 19%.

Is Chinese nuclear weapons enough?

Last week, Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, proposed on Weibo: To increase the deployment of 100 Dongfeng-41 missiles and 1,000 nuclear warheads, to curb US strategic ambitions and impulse against China. As soon as this statement came out, it caused a heated discussion on the Internet and became a hot topic for the whole people. So what is the status of China's nuclear weapons? Should we expand the nuclear warhead?

Regarding the number of China ’s nuclear warheads, the official has not been disclosed, and the position is only that "nuclear weapons are completely used for self-defense and never pose a nuclear threat to any country." However, according to a report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, China has 290 nuclear warheads. Far less than 6,185 in the United States and 6,500 in Russia. In addition to the limited number of nuclear warheads, China ’s current long-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles are also seriously inadequate, and the performance of old missiles like Dongfeng 5 is limited. In addition, China's sea-based and space-based strategic nuclear forces are still very weak, far from the United States and Russia.

Now, the United States is actively developing a new generation of nuclear weapons and accelerating the deployment of anti-missile systems. The threat to China will undoubtedly become greater. There are more than 300 cities in the United States with a population of more than 100,000 people, plus other important hubs. If China wants to carry out a full-scale nuclear counterattack on the United States, it is estimated that at least 400 nuclear warheads can hit the United States. At present, the US military is weaving a large network of anti-missile systems in the Asia-Pacific region. Imagine if the US military mass-produces and deploys anti-missile interceptors in the future, once the number exceeds the number of Chinese nuclear warheads, the consequences will become very serious. With the dual enhancement of the US military's anti-missile combat capability and the strike capability brought by a new generation of nuclear weapons, whether China's nuclear forces can continue to meet the demand for "minimum nuclear deterrence" after the US's nuclear arsenal is updated in the future may not be promising.

Of course, if we quickly expand the nuclear arsenal and increase the number of nuclear warheads according to the view of Editor-in-Chief Hu, it is not the best option for China. Looking back on the Cold War period, the number of Soviet nuclear warheads was later higher than that of the United States. However, the so many nuclear warheads did not bring about a softening of the attitude of the United States towards the Soviet Union. In the end, the Soviet Union collapsed due to various internal reasons. After the Cold War, although Russia also had more nuclear weapons than the United States, it did not completely deter US military provocation. To date, the United States is still eroding Russia's "traditional sphere of influence" through NATO's eastward expansion, reducing its living space. Moreover, warships and warplanes also frequently approached Russia's doorway for normal reconnaissance.

Therefore, what China needs to do is to improve the quality of nuclear weapons, develop the survival and penetration capabilities of nuclear weapons, and appropriately increase the number of nuclear warheads. At the same time, we must go hand in hand in the frontier fields of various military technologies such as land, sea, air, and sky, and develop the quality and scale of conventional weapons, so as to ensure limited nuclear deterrence against the United States.