Brexit's divorce date is set. But what will happen to the UK on January 31?
Updated 33 minutes ago
After more than three years of Brexit talks, deals and political wrangling, the United Kingdom will officially leave the European Union on January 31.
While pro-leave Brexiteers will throw parties, and a commemorative coin will be released, it's not quite the end for those Brits hoping to never hear the word "Brexit" again.
Here's what we know about what will happen next.
What happens on January 31?
The official divorce is done. There's no going back for the UK without the nation signing up to the EU again.
But that doesn't mean much will change in reality, at least not right away.
What it really kickstarts is final negotiations on everything from fishing rights to aviation standards, and a lot of trade deals.
The UK joined the EU's predecessor in 1973, so there's plenty to untangle.
There's an 11-month transition period, to end on December 31 this year, giving both sides some time to agree on how the EU-UK relationship will work.
The UK keeps following the EU's laws for the 11-month transition. Where the changes will happen is largely in Brussels, the de facto home of the EU.
The UK's judges and its 73 European parliamentarians won't sit in EU institutions like the Court of Justice or its parliament anymore.
But the transition period will allow UK citizens, and the country itself, to continue living and working under current laws.
What's been going on all this time, then?
When the UK triggered Article 50 (that's what lets an EU member leave the union) way back in March 2017, the two sides then had to come to a "withdrawal agreement".
That covers how a nation ends its membership; for the UK that meant agreeing on things like its financial requirements (the so-called multi-billion-pound
"divorce bill"), the rights of EU citizens in the UK and a plan to deal with the Irish border.
But the withdrawal agreement didn't actually pass parliament in the UK
until January 9 this year, and passed the European Parliament on January 29, just days before the official leave date.
Trying to push a withdrawal deal through parliament was
part of former prime minister Theresa May's undoing, with several versions and tweaks made in an effort to get MPs to agree to it.
But Prime Minister Boris Johnson's newly secured majority in December
gave him political leverage to secure the bill, three and a half years after the June 2016 referendum.
Mr Johnson's willingness to allow some EU regulations to apply in Northern Ireland, to prevent the need for a hard border with Ireland, which is still an EU member, was a crucial concession.
And while the initial two-year clock to depart started "ticking" when Article 50 was invoked in 2017, there have been three extensions to the initial deadlines.
Mr Johnson has ruled out any more extensions, saying he won't allow this next phase past its scheduled December 2020 end date — although the EU has offered the option of going to 2022.
What do they have to agree on?
There's a lot to get done.
The UK was part of the EU's single market and customs union; now that has to change.
The single market is a cornerstone of the European bloc. It allows free movement of goods, people, services and capital between member states.
And it looks to be one thing the Europeans won't compromise on, with the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier saying this week they would "never, never, never" give way on its integrity.
The customs union allows members to trade largely freely.
One of the big deals now will be striking a new trade agreement with the EU itself.
But Mr Barnier said last week that Britain's goal of striking a full free trade agreement by the end of the year was unrealistic.
"We cannot expect to agree on every aspect of this new partnership," he said.
"We are ready to do our best in the 11 months".
PHOTO UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson secured the withdrawal deal this year. REUTERS: HANNAH MCKAY
Paul Blomfield, a Brexit spokesman for the main opposition Labour Party, said leaving tomorrow did not mean Brexit was over.
"We'll have completed the first step, departure, but the difficult stage is yet to come," he said.
However, the UK Government has already begun the process of removing some EU regulations, starting this week with a bill on fishing laws.
A spokesman for Mr Johnson said: "We are going to be taking back control of our own fishing waters. The EU should be in no doubt about our determination on that issue."
But what could happen if they can't agree?
A "cliff edge" Brexit, or leaving without all the deals in place, could still happen.
The UK Government says it will not agree to follow an EU rulebook in return for unfettered trade; the bloc insists there can be no trade deal unless Britain agrees to a "level playing field" and does not undercut EU regulations.
Negotiations are not due to begin in earnest until March, when EU leaders sign off on a mandate for the talks drawn up by Mr Barnier.
But he has warned that it can't be "business as usual" if no agreement is reached by the end of the year.
"If we have no agreement … we have to face the risk of a cliff edge, in particular for trade," he said.
For any countries the UK doesn't have a trade deal with at the end of the transition, World Trade Organisation rules will kick in, bringing tariffs and trade barriers.
This wouldn't just impact the UK, but also its trading partners.
A bare bones deal could be in place by the end of the year, and negotiations might continue in other areas, but exactly what would be in or out remains to be seen.
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