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视频|四川宜宾珙县地震大陆地震预警网再次成功预警
更新于 2019-06-23 09:04
6月22日22时29分，四川宜宾市珙县发生5.4级地震。地震预警系统为距震中40千米的宜宾市，提前5秒发出预警。距震中257千米的成都，预警时间69秒。
Video|Sichuan Yibin Jixian Earthquake Earthquake Early Warning Network Again Successful Early Warning
Updated on 2019-06-23 09:04
At 22:29 on June 22, an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 occurred in Jixian County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province. The earthquake warning system is located in Yibin City, 40 kilometers away from the epicenter, and an early warning is issued 5 seconds ahead. From Chengdu, which is 257 kilometers from the epicenter, the warning time is 69 seconds.
https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2019-06-24/doc-ihytcitk7206504.shtml
四川宜宾珙县地震再次成功预警
2019年06月24日 07:20 新快报
据新华社电 6月22日22时29分，四川宜宾市珙县发生5.4级地震。地震预警系统为距震中40千米的宜宾市，提前5秒发出预警。距震中257千米的成都，预警时间69秒，因烈度未达触发条件，按要求不发出警报。
https://www.huxiu.com/article/304516.html
原创 提前61秒！宜宾这场6.0级地震是如何预警的？
Cuba Libre
2019-06-18 11:20 收藏60 评论17 智能终端
题图来自视觉中国
6月17日22时55分，在四川宜宾市长宁县北纬28.34度，东经104.90度发生6.0级地震，震源深度16千米。这场昨晚突如其来的地震，让11年前那场痛彻国人心扉的汶川地震再一次浮现在眼前。
截至6月18日早上8时30分，这场地震已造成12人遇难125人受伤。
而长宁地震发生以后，余震不断。截至2019年06月18日02时30分共记录到M2.0级及以上余震32次。其中5.0～5.9级地震1次，4.0～4.9级地震2次，3.0～3.9级地震4次，2.0～2.9级地震25次。后续，长宁再次发生5.3级地震，震源深度17千米。
不过，让人略感安慰的是，就在这次地震之前的61秒内，四川成都、德阳、资阳等地已经陆续收到了通过广播电视机构和各种终端设备发出的提前预警。倒计时数秒之后，震感如约开始强烈起来。
地震预警：从死神手中抢夺时间
公开研究成果表明，人们如果能在地震发生时提前3秒得到预警，伤亡人数可降低14%；提前10秒获得警报，伤亡人数可减少39%，提前20秒，伤亡人数可降低63%。
无疑，一套成熟的地震预警系统可以为在和死神赛跑的人们争取一些宝贵的时间。
在宜宾地震中拉响了警报的，是成都高新减灾研究所王暾博士团队研发的ICL地震预警系统，而这并不是这套系统第一次派上用场。
2017年8月8日，在四川阿坝县九寨沟发生的7.0级地震中，ICL地震预警系统就成功提前71秒通过手机和专用终端为成都发出预警信息，提前19秒为甘肃陇南市发出预警。而九寨沟地震，已经是这套系统第38次成功预警我国的破坏性地震。
成都高新减灾研究所成立于5.12汶川地震后，由国家“千人计划”人才王暾博士创建，王暾博士还牵头成立了由四川省政府授牌的地震预警四川省重点实验室。其团队研发的这套预警系统使得我国成为继墨西哥、日本之后世界第三个具有地震预警能力的国家。
资料显示，中国目前已建立了覆盖31个省区，220万平方公里，覆盖6.6亿人口的地震预警网络，主要分布在南北地震带、华北地震带、东南沿海地震带、新疆西北部。
ICL地震预警系统的原理，就是利用地震的横波和纵波以及电讯号传递速度的差异打时间差。
地震发生时，震源会向外辐射两种不同类型的地震波：纵波、横波。其中纵波在地壳中传播速度为5.5-7千米/秒，它最先向外扩散，使地面上下震动，但破坏性较弱；横波在地壳中的传播速度为3.2-4千米/秒，在纵波之后，第二个向外扩散，它使地面发生前后、左右抖动，破坏性相对较强。
而横波和纵波在地表相遇后，会激发产生一种叫做面波的混合波，波长大、振幅强，只能沿地表传播。面波就是造成地表及建筑物被强烈破坏的罪魁祸首。
比地震的纵波和横波都要快的，是传播速度接近光速（30万千米/秒）的电讯号。因而，利用电讯号，预警系统就可以在接收到纵波信号以后及时向可能波及地区发出警告。
公开资料显示，ICL地震预警系统分为地震监测、预警信息分析和处理、预警信息发布，以及预警信息接收和应用4个环节。按照系统响应的顺序可包括：地震监测台网、地震参数快速判测系统、警报信息快速发布系统和预警信息接受终端。
最终拿到人们手上的，是公众号和各种地震预警系统终端发出的预警信息，比如人们可以通过计算机、手机、电视、微博等终端和应用接收地震预警系统所发出的警报。
在接受经济观察网的采访中，王暾称，本次地震灾害中，该系统已经向宜宾、乐山、成都等13个市州共79个区县的电视、成都的101个左右社区、宜宾乐山等地的200多个的学校发布了预警。在时间上，提前10秒向宜宾预警，提前61秒向成都预警。
对于在可能发生地震的区域安装地震预警传感器，王暾称这种传感器并不昂贵，可以固定在承重墙上，通过网络传播地震数据，这些传感器相当于地震预警前沿的“哨兵”，当监测到地震波，便通过网络传到预警中心，中心用2～3秒时间集中分析数据。
而下一步，是将预警服务作为基本公共服务普及到全国范围。但王暾称距离这一目标还需要三个方面的努力——第一，要把地震预警功能内置到更多的电视和手机上，目前已经应用到省内很多机构的APP上，希望将地震预警系统内置到微信、QQ、支付宝、百度、今日头条的平台；第二，需要各地政府授权发布地震预警信息，一直以来自然灾害的预警只能政府机构才能发布；第三，对公众进行地震预警系统的全面科普。目前研究所在技术和科普上进展较快，尚未解决的是，拿到各级各地的应急管理部门的授权书，以开通地震预警服务。
就在今天，App Store里，地震预警应用的下载量已经飙升至第二位。
除了中国，美国和地震大国日本也有着类似的、相对成熟的预警系统。不过，对于地震预警系统，人们还有些误解。
预警，不是预测、预报
“目前地震预警技术已很成熟，而地震预测的技术还未解决，还是世界难题。 无论是汶川地震，还是后来的芦山7级地震、九寨沟7级地震等，都没有被预测到。”王暾曾经说过。
这就要普及一个知识点：地震预警并非“预报”。
如上文所说，地震预警系统是发生地震时，基于秒级响应的地震监测预警网络，利用的是电波（纵波）比横波快的原理，从而对地震会波及的地区提前十几秒发出警报。但是，它并不能在更早的时间内预知未来某地会发生多少级别的地震——所谓预报，是预测并播报还未发生的地震。
在网络上的一段采访视频中，成都高新减灾研究所所长王暾博士就再次强调道：这套系统不是地震“预报”，而是预警。“预警只能减少人员死伤，但并不能避免人员死伤。”王暾说。
也就是说，地震预警系统可以被视为第一手的地震新闻速报，但是它并不能在地震来临之前进行预测，并且给出完全安全转移的时间。
可以说，对地震的预测至今仍然是一个世界性的待解决难题。不管是中国、美国还是日本，在技术上还没有特殊而有效的方法能十分准确地预测地震。
而现在这样的一套预警系统，其实也还没有到万无一失的地步。
地震预警系统往往是有盲区的，数据显示，以震中为圆心以21公里为半径的区域内的人们还是会先感受到晃动，随后才能收到警报。而地震预警系统对于毁灭性特大地震的作用也尚有限。
同时，预警系统还面临一个尴尬。果壳2014年的文章就写过：越是地面运动强烈的极震区，能提供预警的时间就越短；对预警系统依赖越弱的地区，能提供的预警时间反而越长。一个极端的例子是，汶川地震中，离震中不到20公里的映秀就处于预警系统的响应盲区，几乎没有可能获得提前预警；而距离震中约1500公里的遥远的北京，反而能获得大约3分钟的提前预警。
但不管怎样，几十秒甚至是十几秒的时间，足够让更多的生命获得喘息的机会——
借用这个时间，低楼层的人可以离开危险的建筑物，（重点提示）高楼层的人则需要靠这个时间找到躲避位置和合适的掩体，而不是在慌乱之中冲出楼层。
在地震预警系统的进化中，人们会获得更多对于生命的希望和信心，这是最重要的。
*文章为作者独立观点，不代表虎嗅网立场
本文由 Cuba Libre 授权 虎嗅网 发表，并经虎嗅网编辑。转载此文章须经作者同意，并请附上出处(虎嗅网)及本页链接。原文链接：https://www.huxiu.com/article/304516.html
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Sichuan Yibin Jixian earthquake again successful warning
June 24, 2019 07:20 New Express
According to Xinhua News Agency, at 22:29 on June 22, an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 occurred in Jixian County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province. The earthquake warning system is located in Yibin City, 40 kilometers away from the epicenter, and an early warning is issued 5 seconds ahead. From Chengdu, which is 257 kilometers from the epicenter, the warning time is 69 seconds. Because the intensity is not up to the trigger condition, no alarm will be issued as required.
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Original 61 seconds ahead! How is the earthquake of magnitude 6.0 in Yibin early warning?
Cuba Libre
2019-06-18 11:20 Collection 60 Comments 17 Smart Terminal
61 seconds ahead! How is the earthquake of magnitude 6.0 in Yibin early warning?
The picture is from Visual China
At 22:55 on June 17, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occurred at 28.34 degrees north of Changning County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province, and 104.90 degrees east longitude, with a focal depth of 16 kilometers. The sudden earthquake that struck last night made the Wenchuan earthquake that struck the hearts of the people 11 years ago come to life again.
As of 8:30 am on June 18, the earthquake has killed 12 people and injured 125 people.
After the Changning earthquake, the aftershocks continued. As of 02:30 on June 18, 2019, a total of 32 aftershocks of M2.0 and above were recorded. Among them, the earthquake of magnitude 5.0~5.9 was once, the earthquake of magnitude 4.0~4.9 was used twice, the earthquake of magnitude 3.0~3.9 was 4 times, and the earthquake of magnitude 2.0~2.9 was 25 times. Subsequently, Changning recurred a magnitude 5.3 earthquake with a focal depth of 17 kilometers.
However, it is comforting to note that in the 61 seconds before the earthquake, Sichuan, Chengdu, Deyang, Ziyang and other places have received early warnings issued by radio and television institutions and various terminal equipment. After a few seconds of countdown, the sensation of the earthquake began to strengthen.
Earthquake warning: stealing time from the hands of death
Public research shows that if people can get an early warning 3 seconds ahead of the earthquake, the number of casualties can be reduced by 14%; 10 seconds ahead of time to get an alarm, the number of casualties can be reduced by 39%, 20 seconds ahead, the number of casualties can be reduced by 63%.
Undoubtedly, a mature earthquake warning system can gain some precious time for those who are racing with death.
In the Yibin earthquake, the ICL earthquake warning system developed by Dr. Wang Wei of the Chengdu Institute of High and New Disaster Reduction was the first time that this system came in handy.
On August 8, 2017, in the 7.0 earthquake that occurred in Jiuzhaigou, Aba County, Sichuan Province, the ICL earthquake warning system successfully issued an early warning message for Chengdu through mobile phones and dedicated terminals 71 seconds ahead of schedule, and issued an early warning for Gannan City in Gansu 19 seconds ahead of schedule. The Jiuzhaigou earthquake has already been the 38th successful warning of this system in China.
Founded in 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake, Chengdu High-tech Disaster Reduction Research Institute was founded by Dr. Wang Wei, a national “Thousand Talents Program” talent. Dr. Wang Wei also led the establishment of the Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory of Earthquake Early Warning awarded by the Sichuan Provincial Government. The early warning system developed by its team has made China the third country in the world with earthquake warning capabilities after Mexico and Japan.
According to the data, China has established an earthquake warning network covering 31 provinces and autonomous regions, covering 2.2 million square kilometers and covering 660 million people, mainly distributed in the north-south earthquake zone, the North China earthquake zone, the southeast coastal seismic zone, and the northwestern part of Xinjiang.
The principle of the ICL earthquake early warning system is to use the time difference between the shear wave and the longitudinal wave of the earthquake and the difference in the transmission speed of the electric signal.
When an earthquake occurs, the source radiates two different types of seismic waves: longitudinal waves and transverse waves. The longitudinal wave propagates in the earth's crust at a speed of 5.5-7 km/s. It first diffuses outward, causing the ground to vibrate up and down, but the destructiveness is weak. The transverse wave propagates in the earth's crust at a rate of 3.2-4 km/s. After the longitudinal wave, the second spread outward, which causes the ground to move forward and backward, left and right, and the destructiveness is relatively strong.
When the transverse wave and the longitudinal wave meet at the surface, they will generate a mixed wave called a surface wave, which has a large wavelength and a strong amplitude and can only propagate along the surface. Surface waves are the chief culprit in causing strong damage to the surface and buildings.
Faster than the longitudinal and transverse waves of an earthquake, it is a signal that travels at a speed close to the speed of light (300,000 km/s). Therefore, with the electric signal, the early warning system can issue a warning to the possible areas in time after receiving the longitudinal wave signal.
According to public information, the ICL earthquake early warning system is divided into four parts: seismic monitoring, early warning information analysis and processing, early warning information release, and early warning information reception and application. According to the order of system response, the earthquake monitoring network, the seismic parameter rapid judgment system, the alarm information rapid release system, and the early warning information receiving terminal may be included.
In the end, people get the warning information issued by the public number and various earthquake warning system terminals. For example, people can receive alarms issued by the earthquake early warning system through terminals and applications such as computers, mobile phones, televisions, and Weibo.
In an interview with the Economic Observer Network, Wang Wei said that in the earthquake disaster, the system has been to the TVs of 13 districts and counties in 13 cities and counties such as Yibin, Leshan and Chengdu, and about 101 communities in Chengdu and Yibin Leshan. More than 200 schools in other places issued warnings. In time, 10 seconds ahead of the warning to Yibin, 61 seconds ahead of the warning to Chengdu.
For the installation of earthquake warning sensors in areas where earthquakes may occur, Wang Wei said that such sensors are not expensive and can be fixed on load-bearing walls and spread seismic data through networks. These sensors are equivalent to the "sentinel" at the forefront of earthquake warning. The seismic wave is transmitted to the early warning center through the network, and the center analyzes the data in two to three seconds.
The next step is to spread early warning services as a basic public service to the whole country. However, Wang Wei said that it needs three efforts to reach this goal. First, the earthquake warning function should be built into more TVs and mobile phones. It has been applied to the APPs of many institutions in the province. The early warning system is built into the platform of WeChat, QQ, Alipay, Baidu, and today's headlines. Second, local governments are required to authorize the release of earthquake warning information. Natural disaster warnings can only be issued by government agencies. Third, earthquake warnings are conducted for the public. The comprehensive science of the system. At present, the Institute has made rapid progress in technology and science. The unresolved issue is to obtain authorization letters from emergency management departments at various levels to open earthquake warning services.
Just today, in the App Store, downloads of earthquake warning applications have soared to second place.
In addition to China, the United States and the earthquake power Japan have similar, relatively mature early warning systems. However, there are some misunderstandings about the earthquake warning system.
Early warning, not prediction, forecast
"At present, the earthquake early warning technology is very mature, and the technology of earthquake prediction has not been solved yet, and it is still a world problem. Whether it is the Wenchuan earthquake, or the later Lushan 7 earthquake, the Jiuzhaigou earthquake of magnitude 7, etc., has not been predicted." said before.
This is to spread a knowledge point: earthquake warning is not a "forecast."
As mentioned above, the earthquake early warning system is a seismic monitoring and early warning network based on the second-order response when an earthquake occurs. It uses the principle that the electric wave (longitudinal wave) is faster than the transverse wave, so that the earthquake-affected area is alerted more than ten seconds in advance. However, it does not predict in an earlier time how many levels of earthquakes will occur in a certain place in the future. The so-called forecast is to predict and broadcast earthquakes that have not yet occurred.
In an interview video on the Internet, Dr. Wang Wei, director of the Chengdu Institute of High and New Disaster Reduction, once again stressed that this system is not an earthquake “forecast” but an early warning. "Warning can only reduce the number of casualties, but it can not avoid death and injury." Wang Wei said.
That is to say, the earthquake warning system can be regarded as the first-hand earthquake news bulletin, but it cannot predict before the earthquake and gives the time for complete safe transfer.
It can be said that the prediction of earthquakes is still a worldwide problem to be solved. No matter whether it is China, the United States or Japan, there is no special and effective method for predicting earthquakes very accurately.
Now, such an early warning system has not yet reached the point of being foolproof.
Earthquake early warning systems often have blind spots. The data shows that people in the area with a radius of 21 kilometers from the center of the epicenter will still feel the shaking first, and then they will receive an alarm. The role of earthquake warning systems for devastating earthquakes is still limited.
At the same time, the early warning system is also facing a flaw. The shell article in 2014 wrote: The more the earthquake-stricken area with strong ground motion, the shorter the time to provide early warning; the weaker the area where the early warning system relies, the longer the warning time can be provided. An extreme example is that in the Wenchuan earthquake, Yingxiu, which is less than 20 kilometers away from the epicenter, is in the blind spot of the early warning system, and it is almost impossible to obtain early warning. However, in the distant Beijing about 1500 kilometers from the epicenter, it can get about 3 minutes. Early warning.
But no matter what, tens of seconds or even ten seconds is enough to give more life a chance to breathe -
By borrowing this time, people on lower floors can leave dangerous buildings. (High-key people) People on high floors need to find the shelter location and the appropriate bunker at this time instead of rushing out of the floor in a panic.
In the evolution of earthquake warning systems, people will gain more hope and confidence in life, which is the most important.
* The article is an author's independent point of view, does not represent the position of the tiger sniffing net
This article by Cuba
视频|四川宜宾珙县地震大陆地震预警网再次成功预警
更新于 2019-06-23 09:04
6月22日22时29分，四川宜宾市珙县发生5.4级地震。地震预警系统为距震中40千米的宜宾市，提前5秒发出预警。距震中257千米的成都，预警时间69秒。
Video|Sichuan Yibin Jixian Earthquake Earthquake Early Warning Network Again Successful Early Warning
Updated on 2019-06-23 09:04
At 22:29 on June 22, an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 occurred in Jixian County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province. The earthquake warning system is located in Yibin City, 40 kilometers away from the epicenter, and an early warning is issued 5 seconds ahead. From Chengdu, which is 257 kilometers from the epicenter, the warning time is 69 seconds.
https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2019-06-24/doc-ihytcitk7206504.shtml
四川宜宾珙县地震再次成功预警
2019年06月24日 07:20 新快报
据新华社电 6月22日22时29分，四川宜宾市珙县发生5.4级地震。地震预警系统为距震中40千米的宜宾市，提前5秒发出预警。距震中257千米的成都，预警时间69秒，因烈度未达触发条件，按要求不发出警报。
https://www.huxiu.com/article/304516.html
原创 提前61秒！宜宾这场6.0级地震是如何预警的？
Cuba Libre
2019-06-18 11:20 收藏60 评论17 智能终端
题图来自视觉中国
6月17日22时55分，在四川宜宾市长宁县北纬28.34度，东经104.90度发生6.0级地震，震源深度16千米。这场昨晚突如其来的地震，让11年前那场痛彻国人心扉的汶川地震再一次浮现在眼前。
截至6月18日早上8时30分，这场地震已造成12人遇难125人受伤。
而长宁地震发生以后，余震不断。截至2019年06月18日02时30分共记录到M2.0级及以上余震32次。其中5.0～5.9级地震1次，4.0～4.9级地震2次，3.0～3.9级地震4次，2.0～2.9级地震25次。后续，长宁再次发生5.3级地震，震源深度17千米。
不过，让人略感安慰的是，就在这次地震之前的61秒内，四川成都、德阳、资阳等地已经陆续收到了通过广播电视机构和各种终端设备发出的提前预警。倒计时数秒之后，震感如约开始强烈起来。
地震预警：从死神手中抢夺时间
公开研究成果表明，人们如果能在地震发生时提前3秒得到预警，伤亡人数可降低14%；提前10秒获得警报，伤亡人数可减少39%，提前20秒，伤亡人数可降低63%。
无疑，一套成熟的地震预警系统可以为在和死神赛跑的人们争取一些宝贵的时间。
在宜宾地震中拉响了警报的，是成都高新减灾研究所王暾博士团队研发的ICL地震预警系统，而这并不是这套系统第一次派上用场。
2017年8月8日，在四川阿坝县九寨沟发生的7.0级地震中，ICL地震预警系统就成功提前71秒通过手机和专用终端为成都发出预警信息，提前19秒为甘肃陇南市发出预警。而九寨沟地震，已经是这套系统第38次成功预警我国的破坏性地震。
成都高新减灾研究所成立于5.12汶川地震后，由国家“千人计划”人才王暾博士创建，王暾博士还牵头成立了由四川省政府授牌的地震预警四川省重点实验室。其团队研发的这套预警系统使得我国成为继墨西哥、日本之后世界第三个具有地震预警能力的国家。
资料显示，中国目前已建立了覆盖31个省区，220万平方公里，覆盖6.6亿人口的地震预警网络，主要分布在南北地震带、华北地震带、东南沿海地震带、新疆西北部。
ICL地震预警系统的原理，就是利用地震的横波和纵波以及电讯号传递速度的差异打时间差。
地震发生时，震源会向外辐射两种不同类型的地震波：纵波、横波。其中纵波在地壳中传播速度为5.5-7千米/秒，它最先向外扩散，使地面上下震动，但破坏性较弱；横波在地壳中的传播速度为3.2-4千米/秒，在纵波之后，第二个向外扩散，它使地面发生前后、左右抖动，破坏性相对较强。
而横波和纵波在地表相遇后，会激发产生一种叫做面波的混合波，波长大、振幅强，只能沿地表传播。面波就是造成地表及建筑物被强烈破坏的罪魁祸首。
比地震的纵波和横波都要快的，是传播速度接近光速（30万千米/秒）的电讯号。因而，利用电讯号，预警系统就可以在接收到纵波信号以后及时向可能波及地区发出警告。
公开资料显示，ICL地震预警系统分为地震监测、预警信息分析和处理、预警信息发布，以及预警信息接收和应用4个环节。按照系统响应的顺序可包括：地震监测台网、地震参数快速判测系统、警报信息快速发布系统和预警信息接受终端。
最终拿到人们手上的，是公众号和各种地震预警系统终端发出的预警信息，比如人们可以通过计算机、手机、电视、微博等终端和应用接收地震预警系统所发出的警报。
在接受经济观察网的采访中，王暾称，本次地震灾害中，该系统已经向宜宾、乐山、成都等13个市州共79个区县的电视、成都的101个左右社区、宜宾乐山等地的200多个的学校发布了预警。在时间上，提前10秒向宜宾预警，提前61秒向成都预警。
对于在可能发生地震的区域安装地震预警传感器，王暾称这种传感器并不昂贵，可以固定在承重墙上，通过网络传播地震数据，这些传感器相当于地震预警前沿的“哨兵”，当监测到地震波，便通过网络传到预警中心，中心用2～3秒时间集中分析数据。
而下一步，是将预警服务作为基本公共服务普及到全国范围。但王暾称距离这一目标还需要三个方面的努力——第一，要把地震预警功能内置到更多的电视和手机上，目前已经应用到省内很多机构的APP上，希望将地震预警系统内置到微信、QQ、支付宝、百度、今日头条的平台；第二，需要各地政府授权发布地震预警信息，一直以来自然灾害的预警只能政府机构才能发布；第三，对公众进行地震预警系统的全面科普。目前研究所在技术和科普上进展较快，尚未解决的是，拿到各级各地的应急管理部门的授权书，以开通地震预警服务。
就在今天，App Store里，地震预警应用的下载量已经飙升至第二位。
除了中国，美国和地震大国日本也有着类似的、相对成熟的预警系统。不过，对于地震预警系统，人们还有些误解。
预警，不是预测、预报
“目前地震预警技术已很成熟，而地震预测的技术还未解决，还是世界难题。 无论是汶川地震，还是后来的芦山7级地震、九寨沟7级地震等，都没有被预测到。”王暾曾经说过。
这就要普及一个知识点：地震预警并非“预报”。
如上文所说，地震预警系统是发生地震时，基于秒级响应的地震监测预警网络，利用的是电波（纵波）比横波快的原理，从而对地震会波及的地区提前十几秒发出警报。但是，它并不能在更早的时间内预知未来某地会发生多少级别的地震——所谓预报，是预测并播报还未发生的地震。
在网络上的一段采访视频中，成都高新减灾研究所所长王暾博士就再次强调道：这套系统不是地震“预报”，而是预警。“预警只能减少人员死伤，但并不能避免人员死伤。”王暾说。
也就是说，地震预警系统可以被视为第一手的地震新闻速报，但是它并不能在地震来临之前进行预测，并且给出完全安全转移的时间。
可以说，对地震的预测至今仍然是一个世界性的待解决难题。不管是中国、美国还是日本，在技术上还没有特殊而有效的方法能十分准确地预测地震。
而现在这样的一套预警系统，其实也还没有到万无一失的地步。
地震预警系统往往是有盲区的，数据显示，以震中为圆心以21公里为半径的区域内的人们还是会先感受到晃动，随后才能收到警报。而地震预警系统对于毁灭性特大地震的作用也尚有限。
同时，预警系统还面临一个尴尬。果壳2014年的文章就写过：越是地面运动强烈的极震区，能提供预警的时间就越短；对预警系统依赖越弱的地区，能提供的预警时间反而越长。一个极端的例子是，汶川地震中，离震中不到20公里的映秀就处于预警系统的响应盲区，几乎没有可能获得提前预警；而距离震中约1500公里的遥远的北京，反而能获得大约3分钟的提前预警。
但不管怎样，几十秒甚至是十几秒的时间，足够让更多的生命获得喘息的机会——
借用这个时间，低楼层的人可以离开危险的建筑物，（重点提示）高楼层的人则需要靠这个时间找到躲避位置和合适的掩体，而不是在慌乱之中冲出楼层。
在地震预警系统的进化中，人们会获得更多对于生命的希望和信心，这是最重要的。
*文章为作者独立观点，不代表虎嗅网立场
本文由 Cuba Libre 授权 虎嗅网 发表，并经虎嗅网编辑。转载此文章须经作者同意，并请附上出处(虎嗅网)及本页链接。原文链接：https://www.huxiu.com/article/304516.html
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Sichuan Yibin Jixian earthquake again successful warning
June 24, 2019 07:20 New Express
According to Xinhua News Agency, at 22:29 on June 22, an earthquake of magnitude 5.4 occurred in Jixian County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province. The earthquake warning system is located in Yibin City, 40 kilometers away from the epicenter, and an early warning is issued 5 seconds ahead. From Chengdu, which is 257 kilometers from the epicenter, the warning time is 69 seconds. Because the intensity is not up to the trigger condition, no alarm will be issued as required.
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Original 61 seconds ahead! How is the earthquake of magnitude 6.0 in Yibin early warning?
Cuba Libre
2019-06-18 11:20 Collection 60 Comments 17 Smart Terminal
61 seconds ahead! How is the earthquake of magnitude 6.0 in Yibin early warning?
The picture is from Visual China
At 22:55 on June 17, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake occurred at 28.34 degrees north of Changning County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province, and 104.90 degrees east longitude, with a focal depth of 16 kilometers. The sudden earthquake that struck last night made the Wenchuan earthquake that struck the hearts of the people 11 years ago come to life again.
As of 8:30 am on June 18, the earthquake has killed 12 people and injured 125 people.
After the Changning earthquake, the aftershocks continued. As of 02:30 on June 18, 2019, a total of 32 aftershocks of M2.0 and above were recorded. Among them, the earthquake of magnitude 5.0~5.9 was once, the earthquake of magnitude 4.0~4.9 was used twice, the earthquake of magnitude 3.0~3.9 was 4 times, and the earthquake of magnitude 2.0~2.9 was 25 times. Subsequently, Changning recurred a magnitude 5.3 earthquake with a focal depth of 17 kilometers.
However, it is comforting to note that in the 61 seconds before the earthquake, Sichuan, Chengdu, Deyang, Ziyang and other places have received early warnings issued by radio and television institutions and various terminal equipment. After a few seconds of countdown, the sensation of the earthquake began to strengthen.
Earthquake warning: stealing time from the hands of death
Public research shows that if people can get an early warning 3 seconds ahead of the earthquake, the number of casualties can be reduced by 14%; 10 seconds ahead of time to get an alarm, the number of casualties can be reduced by 39%, 20 seconds ahead, the number of casualties can be reduced by 63%.
Undoubtedly, a mature earthquake warning system can gain some precious time for those who are racing with death.
In the Yibin earthquake, the ICL earthquake warning system developed by Dr. Wang Wei of the Chengdu Institute of High and New Disaster Reduction was the first time that this system came in handy.
On August 8, 2017, in the 7.0 earthquake that occurred in Jiuzhaigou, Aba County, Sichuan Province, the ICL earthquake warning system successfully issued an early warning message for Chengdu through mobile phones and dedicated terminals 71 seconds ahead of schedule, and issued an early warning for Gannan City in Gansu 19 seconds ahead of schedule. The Jiuzhaigou earthquake has already been the 38th successful warning of this system in China.
Founded in 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake, Chengdu High-tech Disaster Reduction Research Institute was founded by Dr. Wang Wei, a national “Thousand Talents Program” talent. Dr. Wang Wei also led the establishment of the Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory of Earthquake Early Warning awarded by the Sichuan Provincial Government. The early warning system developed by its team has made China the third country in the world with earthquake warning capabilities after Mexico and Japan.
According to the data, China has established an earthquake warning network covering 31 provinces and autonomous regions, covering 2.2 million square kilometers and covering 660 million people, mainly distributed in the north-south earthquake zone, the North China earthquake zone, the southeast coastal seismic zone, and the northwestern part of Xinjiang.
The principle of the ICL earthquake early warning system is to use the time difference between the shear wave and the longitudinal wave of the earthquake and the difference in the transmission speed of the electric signal.
When an earthquake occurs, the source radiates two different types of seismic waves: longitudinal waves and transverse waves. The longitudinal wave propagates in the earth's crust at a speed of 5.5-7 km/s. It first diffuses outward, causing the ground to vibrate up and down, but the destructiveness is weak. The transverse wave propagates in the earth's crust at a rate of 3.2-4 km/s. After the longitudinal wave, the second spread outward, which causes the ground to move forward and backward, left and right, and the destructiveness is relatively strong.
When the transverse wave and the longitudinal wave meet at the surface, they will generate a mixed wave called a surface wave, which has a large wavelength and a strong amplitude and can only propagate along the surface. Surface waves are the chief culprit in causing strong damage to the surface and buildings.
Faster than the longitudinal and transverse waves of an earthquake, it is a signal that travels at a speed close to the speed of light (300,000 km/s). Therefore, with the electric signal, the early warning system can issue a warning to the possible areas in time after receiving the longitudinal wave signal.
According to public information, the ICL earthquake early warning system is divided into four parts: seismic monitoring, early warning information analysis and processing, early warning information release, and early warning information reception and application. According to the order of system response, the earthquake monitoring network, the seismic parameter rapid judgment system, the alarm information rapid release system, and the early warning information receiving terminal may be included.
In the end, people get the warning information issued by the public number and various earthquake warning system terminals. For example, people can receive alarms issued by the earthquake early warning system through terminals and applications such as computers, mobile phones, televisions, and Weibo.
In an interview with the Economic Observer Network, Wang Wei said that in the earthquake disaster, the system has been to the TVs of 13 districts and counties in 13 cities and counties such as Yibin, Leshan and Chengdu, and about 101 communities in Chengdu and Yibin Leshan. More than 200 schools in other places issued warnings. In time, 10 seconds ahead of the warning to Yibin, 61 seconds ahead of the warning to Chengdu.
For the installation of earthquake warning sensors in areas where earthquakes may occur, Wang Wei said that such sensors are not expensive and can be fixed on load-bearing walls and spread seismic data through networks. These sensors are equivalent to the "sentinel" at the forefront of earthquake warning. The seismic wave is transmitted to the early warning center through the network, and the center analyzes the data in two to three seconds.
The next step is to spread early warning services as a basic public service to the whole country. However, Wang Wei said that it needs three efforts to reach this goal. First, the earthquake warning function should be built into more TVs and mobile phones. It has been applied to the APPs of many institutions in the province. The early warning system is built into the platform of WeChat, QQ, Alipay, Baidu, and today's headlines. Second, local governments are required to authorize the release of earthquake warning information. Natural disaster warnings can only be issued by government agencies. Third, earthquake warnings are conducted for the public. The comprehensive science of the system. At present, the Institute has made rapid progress in technology and science. The unresolved issue is to obtain authorization letters from emergency management departments at various levels to open earthquake warning services.
Just today, in the App Store, downloads of earthquake warning applications have soared to second place.
In addition to China, the United States and the earthquake power Japan have similar, relatively mature early warning systems. However, there are some misunderstandings about the earthquake warning system.
Early warning, not prediction, forecast
"At present, the earthquake early warning technology is very mature, and the technology of earthquake prediction has not been solved yet, and it is still a world problem. Whether it is the Wenchuan earthquake, or the later Lushan 7 earthquake, the Jiuzhaigou earthquake of magnitude 7, etc., has not been predicted." said before.
This is to spread a knowledge point: earthquake warning is not a "forecast."
As mentioned above, the earthquake early warning system is a seismic monitoring and early warning network based on the second-order response when an earthquake occurs. It uses the principle that the electric wave (longitudinal wave) is faster than the transverse wave, so that the earthquake-affected area is alerted more than ten seconds in advance. However, it does not predict in an earlier time how many levels of earthquakes will occur in a certain place in the future. The so-called forecast is to predict and broadcast earthquakes that have not yet occurred.
In an interview video on the Internet, Dr. Wang Wei, director of the Chengdu Institute of High and New Disaster Reduction, once again stressed that this system is not an earthquake “forecast” but an early warning. "Warning can only reduce the number of casualties, but it can not avoid death and injury." Wang Wei said.
That is to say, the earthquake warning system can be regarded as the first-hand earthquake news bulletin, but it cannot predict before the earthquake and gives the time for complete safe transfer.
It can be said that the prediction of earthquakes is still a worldwide problem to be solved. No matter whether it is China, the United States or Japan, there is no special and effective method for predicting earthquakes very accurately.
Now, such an early warning system has not yet reached the point of being foolproof.
Earthquake early warning systems often have blind spots. The data shows that people in the area with a radius of 21 kilometers from the center of the epicenter will still feel the shaking first, and then they will receive an alarm. The role of earthquake warning systems for devastating earthquakes is still limited.
At the same time, the early warning system is also facing a flaw. The shell article in 2014 wrote: The more the earthquake-stricken area with strong ground motion, the shorter the time to provide early warning; the weaker the area where the early warning system relies, the longer the warning time can be provided. An extreme example is that in the Wenchuan earthquake, Yingxiu, which is less than 20 kilometers away from the epicenter, is in the blind spot of the early warning system, and it is almost impossible to obtain early warning. However, in the distant Beijing about 1500 kilometers from the epicenter, it can get about 3 minutes. Early warning.
But no matter what, tens of seconds or even ten seconds is enough to give more life a chance to breathe -
By borrowing this time, people on lower floors can leave dangerous buildings. (High-key people) People on high floors need to find the shelter location and the appropriate bunker at this time instead of rushing out of the floor in a panic.
In the evolution of earthquake warning systems, people will gain more hope and confidence in life, which is the most important.
* The article is an author's independent point of view, does not represent the position of the tiger sniffing net
This article by Cuba
