PAP strategy of funding spoilers will cease

The old timers who witnessed the politics of the '60s, please feel free to correct me. Am I correct in assuming the PAP strategy of funding spoilers dates back to that era?

It looks like with the PE results, this old strategy of yore will cease. No point wasting an election deposit when the spoiler will not make any difference to the outcome, or even to the width of the winning margin.

Thick Face Black Heart said:

The old timers who witnessed the politics of the '60s, please feel free to correct me. Am I correct in assuming the PAP strategy of funding spoilers dates back to that era?

It looks like with the PE results, this old strategy of yore will cease. No point wasting an election deposit when the spoiler will not make any difference to the outcome, or even to the width of the winning margin.

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I think that people are generally aware that voting for a spoiler will waste your vote. In 2011 some people didn't know which candidate would win. A small minority thought that it would be Desmond and so they voted for him.

In 2013, it's crystal clear that you shouldn't vote for Desmond, which is why his share of the votes fell. I remember as a voter during the PE, trying to guess which non-Tony Tan candidate to vote for. In the end, I guessed right. If more people guessed right, Tony Tan wouldn't be in the Istana.

I would say this time that the PAP really got trashed, nothing to do with whether in general spoilers work. Sometimes they do, other times they don't. But they were so soundly whacked this time, even the spoiler couldn't help them.

This election showed that WP is the premier opposition party. In 2016, voters will be faced with a problem they never really had to worry about before: what if there's a freak election result and we actually take power away from the PAP? The way they're going to answer this question is: swing voters in WP contested constituencies are more likely to vote opposition, swing voters in other parties contested constituencies are more likely to vote PAP. So it's the WP people who are going into parliament. As long as all Singaporeans agree on that, there will not be a freak result, and the optimum case of 20-30 seats for the opposition will be achieved.

Agree on all counts, metalmickey, except that WP will probably not be able to contest half the seats. Maybe 40%. But I could be wrong. They could well challenge the PAP's 2/3 majority aka Pakatan2008 style. Let's see.

Question. Will PAP start to panic or are they still in denial mode after this BE? 4 corners fight and they still lose.Trying to dilute the voters really backfire this time round.

mollusk said:

Question. Will PAP start to panic or are they still in denial mode after this BE? 4 corners fight and they still lose.Trying to dilute the voters really backfire this time round.

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Of all we know, the spoilers ate into the anti-WP vote rather than the anti-PAP vote.

Thick Face Black Heart said:

Of all we know, the spoilers ate into the anti-WP vote rather than the anti-PAP vote.

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I thought the spoilers ate into the spoilt votes vote...

wwabbit said:

I thought the spoilers ate into the spoilt votes vote...

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Hhahahah! That's a good theory!

I believe they will continue with funding these spoliers. Spoilers aren't operational only during elections. They are around 24/7/365 to be 'eyes' and 'ears' and they do contribute in other ways before and during GEs.

metalmickey said:

This election showed that WP is the premier opposition party. In 2016, voters will be faced with a problem they never really had to worry about before: what if there's a freak election result and we actually take power away from the PAP? The way they're going to answer this question is: swing voters in WP contested constituencies are more likely to vote opposition, swing voters in other parties contested constituencies are more likely to vote PAP. So it's the WP people who are going into parliament. As long as all Singaporeans agree on that, there will not be a freak result, and the optimum case of 20-30 seats for the opposition will be achieved.

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The PAP has failed sinkees so much in the last 2 decades that they no longer deserve to be in government. Its policies serve the interests of the top 20 percent and foreigners. Who have benefitted most from the PAP in the last 2 decades? The ministers for a fact. The rich, of course. Anybody else?

40% of the population voted oppositions.

singaporeans want a multi party system.

is lky play cheating mind that prevented it from happening.

singaporeans are not stupid.

Post Presidential Election, spoilers were seen as a full proof method to ensure PAP rule. It turns out that there is now a viable counter to this strategy. The awareness raised from the Presidential election and this BE are going to ripple through to 2016.

Second big take away is that there is a need to be careful who you approach. DL was caught paying his volunteers and this was splashed over cyberspace. He tried to run a fake online rally campaign but botched the views so bad that the plug had to be pulled.

Finally nuisance candidates are only a serious threat if Opposition branding is not strong. Post GE 2011, IPS did a study and found WP in a league of their own. They were still below PAP bu above SDP and NSP. It is time to redo the study. I suspect WP's branding has surged. When even KJ can be brushed off as a nuisance candidate, it is obvious the tactic is is not going to be effective against WP. It might work against SDP and NSP whose branding is still weaker but we will need more data before we can make an accurate assessment.

GoldenDragon said:

I believe they will continue with funding these spoliers. Spoilers aren't operational only during elections. They are around 24/7/365 to be 'eyes' and 'ears' and they do contribute in other ways before and during GEs.

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Good points from tfbh, metalmick & aruv..

i extend 'spoilers' to papib-s and wackos who for their own angsts play into pap hands.

IBs like cass888, kinana etc

wackos like GMS, SKPonggol, Ptader, kukubird etc

If a first class honors economist who had 'policy' gravy - everything that WPstand accused of lacking post-GE 2011- and yet can lose his deposit ( 4CF notwithstanding ),
Then all armchair & cyberspace observers should start to ackmnowledge grudgingly or otherwise, WP and LTK's political wisdom and electoral shrewdness.

PE2013 is also an education for us as to the nature of the young heartlander electorate.

Pluralism is almost a given.

Question is in what form can this be EFFECTIVELY evolved and achieved.

by SDP's 'policy driven' thrust

or GMS's unique 'democracy-based policy cum strategic intelligence' way of leading & organizing party organizations, confusing priorities with idealistic imperatives or ....

WPs unglamorous but 'hardwork on ground get into House first' wisdom ...

Time will tell

Thick Face Black Heart said:

Agree on all counts, metalmickey, except that WP will probably not be able to contest half the seats. Maybe 40%. But I could be wrong. They could well challenge the PAP's 2/3 majority aka Pakatan2008 style. Let's see.

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They will probably not contest more than half the seats unless they feel they have no choice. They will have lots of talent by then. WP is like Obama. They play the long game. Interesting to see what the PAP does now. If they turn negative it will be their undoing.

elephanto said:

Good points from tfbh, metalmick & aruv..

i extend 'spoilers' to papib-s and wackos who for their own angsts play into pap hands.

IBs like cass888, kinana etc

wackos like GMS, SKPonggol, Ptader, kukubird etc

If a first class honors economist who had 'policy' gravy - everything that WPstand accused of lacking post-GE 2011- and yet can lose his deposit ( 4CF notwithstanding ),
Then all armchair & cyberspace observers should start to ackmnowledge grudgingly or otherwise, WP and LTK's political wisdom and electoral shrewdness.

PE2013 is also an education for us as to the nature of the young heartlander electorate.

Pluralism is almost a given.

Question is in what form can this be EFFECTIVELY evolved and achieved.

by SDP's 'policy driven' thrust

or GMS's unique 'democracy-based policy cum strategic intelligence' way of leading & organizing party organizations, confusing priorities with idealistic imperatives or ....

WPs unglamorous but 'hardwork on ground get into House first' wisdom ...

Time will tell

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hahaha...double confirmed another lan jiao ....oops i mean lao jiao riding on high horse....
typical of elephants....good for following herd instincts.....

what do they have to do really? Opp has the best job in the world here. PAP simply cannot stop screwing up. They will never learn to shut up either. Salaries have flatlined, and everything is going up. Medical costs are becoming insane. Foreign scum flood the streets. Recession always looms, thanks to EU. All they have to do is wait, respond, wait, dont screw up. I have not seen a more incompetent majority party

Thick Face Black Heart said:

Of all we know, the spoilers ate into the anti-WP vote rather than the anti-PAP vote.

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Let's look at the numbers, in 2011, WP = 41.01%, PAP = 54.54% and SDA = 4.45% (equivalent to 1387 Votes)

in 2013 BE We have WP = 54.52%, PAP = 43.71% , SDA = 0.57% and RP = 1.2% (3rd party votes Total = 168+353 = 521 Votes)

From this results, we can clearly see that the spoilers ate into PAP votes but not the WP Votes.

Means that Voters are becoming more matured and more savvy when it comes to voting.

IMHO.

If WP is approaching the PAP is terms of nation-wide support, any spoiler will become a double edged sword. Rather than just eating into WP's vote, the spoiler will merely create noise by eating a tiny amount from both sides but not changing the outcome in any way. And it will only serve to make WP look better.

aurvandil said:

Post Presidential Election, spoilers were seen as a full proof method to ensure PAP rule. It turns out that there is now a viable counter to this strategy. The awareness raised from the Presidential election and this BE are going to ripple through to 2016.

Second big take away is that there is a need to be careful who you approach. DL was caught paying his volunteers and this was splashed over cyberspace. He tried to run a fake online rally campaign but botched the views so bad that the plug had to be pulled.

Finally nuisance candidates are only a serious threat if Opposition branding is not strong. Post GE 2011, IPS did a study and found WP in a league of their own. They were still below PAP bu above SDP and NSP. It is time to redo the study. I suspect WP's branding has surged. When even KJ can be brushed off as a nuisance candidate, it is obvious the tactic is is not going to be effective against WP. It might work against SDP and NSP whose branding is still weaker but we will need more data before we can make an accurate assessment.

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Not necessarily. The problem is that just about all of the spoilers are from the left. With WP being centrist or center-left and PAP being center-right, spoilers are more likely to eat into WP votes than PAP votes.

GoldenDragon said:

I believe they will continue with funding these spoliers. Spoilers aren't operational only during elections. They are around 24/7/365 to be 'eyes' and 'ears' and they do contribute in other ways before and during GEs.

Click to expand...

Exactly! You hit the nail on the head!