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Previously I had written a blog posting [link] on how the contest between Dr Tony Tan and Dr Tan Cheng Bock is shaping up to be a contest between the PAP Elite and the PAP Grassroots.
Thus far, this Presidential Election has been bitterly divisive for the PAP. Initially the PAP Grassroots who supported Dr Tan Cheng Bock had been doing so in a quiet and discreet manner. However as Dr Tan Cheng Bock’s campaign gained momentum, the support has started to become increasingly open. The PAP Elite were stunned by Dr Tan Cheng Bock’s press conference. They did not expect it to be packed with so many people. More importantly, they were shocked that there were so many PAP Grassroots who were prepared to be openly associated with Dr Tan Cheng Bock. This rang a warning bell that Dr Tan Cheng Bock’s support within the PAP itself was perhaps stronger than they had anticipated.
The news of Dr Tony Tan’s scandal is the proverbial last straw that broke the camel’s back. The scandal involving Dr Tony Tan and his son was not something which was widely known to PAP supporters. They were as shocked as the rest of us when they read about it on Temasek Review Emeritus (TRE).
If there was no hard evidence, many would have dismissed it as just another ugly Internet rumor. The allegations are however backed by Dr Patrick Tan’s CV publicly published in AStar [Link].
Many of the PAP Grassroots work in the establishment and have access to policy information not available to the public. While no one is about to break party discipline and turn whistleblower, the consensus is that there might perhaps be truth to some of the allegations as there appear to be clear policy breaches.
If the PAP follow their own internal rules strictly, CPIB should be starting investigations to determine if there was any wrong doing. This would be done quietly without any public announcement. The CPIB starting investigations does not of course mean that anyone is guilty of corruption. Such investigations are standard whenever serious allegations with credible evidence surface. It would be highly irregular if there is no CPIB investigation and the case is closed with just Dr Tony Tan and Dr Patrick Tan issuing statements to dismiss the allegations.
The PAP’s protocol with regard to candidates tainted by scandal is that they should withdraw themselves from election. The most recent example of this was NTUC unionist Mr Steve Tan who withdrew himself from standing as a candidate in Tampines GRC. This followed allegations that he had made inappropriate sexual advances to some female colleagues. These allegations were purportedly backed by email written by Mr Steve Tan. The allegations were never proven. Mr Steve Tan however withdrew to preserve the good name of the PAP.
Dr Tony Tan has resigned from the PAP and is running as an independent. While the rules no longer apply to him, it would nevertheless be honorable of him to abide by those rules so as to protect the PAP.
If Dr Tony Tan withdraws from the race, the PAP can then discreetly throw their weight behind Dr Tan Cheng Bock in the same way that they have been doing for Dr Tony Tan. While Dr Tan Cheng Bock is not the preferred candidate, he is clean as a whistle and not marred by any scandal. He was a popular long serving PAP MP and he has stated clearly that if he is elected as President, he will operate within the boundaries set by the PAP.
If Dr Tony Tan proceeds, the scandal would follow Dr Tony Tan throughout the campaign. While nothing can be proven, the PAP would be continuously embarrassed by it. From GE 2011, many Singaporeans are already in an angry mood against the PAP. With this scandal following Dr Tony Tan wherever he goes, there is a good chance that Dr Tony Tan would lose.
It should be noted that so far the other Presidential candidates have refrained from commenting on the scandal. There is however no guarantee they will keep their silence after the COE has been awarded. The nightmare scenario would be for them to openly talk about it during the televised sessions provided for under the recent PMO guidelines. This could potentially destroy forever the perception among Singaporeans that the PAP is clean and corruption free.
Some PAP Grassroots also pointed out that if there is no CPIB investigation and Dr Tony Tan runs as if nothing happened, then it will not only be Dr Patrick Tan that gets “special” treatment. Dr Tony Tan also gets “special” treatment.
. Aurvandil *The writer blogs at Thoughts of a Singapore Statistician
. After Note
My understanding is that when PM Lee heard about the allegations and saw Dr Patrick Tan’s CV, he was as shocked as the rest of us. We should not forget that before PM Lee left to join politics, he was a BG in the SAF. He is therefore very familiar with SAF policy and is quite clear about any policy breaches in Dr Patrick Tan’s case.
