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Chitchat Future bodes ill for Singapore (next 20 years painful to watch)

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
For those of us watching and recording the long game, this is event is one of the more important milestones. It changes nothing with regard to the narrative of Singapore's decline. The next 20 years will be painful to watch.

The PAP has essentially milked the country dry. The 2016 US election allowed us to put a label on it. It's called "neoliberalism". Immigration is a cornerstone of neoliberalism. That's what the PAP has been doing for the past 20 years - using immigration to inflate the economy, asset prices, etc. That trend is obviously unsustainable. You don't need a college degree to know that.

So what is the PAP going to do after their immigration tactic runs its natural course? They have no ideas. For that matter, I don't as well. The PAP has run the country to the ground and all the economic opportunities that once existed for the younger generation have either been consumed by the GLCs or simply destroyed through attrition. High asset prices paint a rosy picture that the country is doing fine. We know its not. Wages for the lower and middle have been stagnant and will remain so. Rising asset prices and continual CPF payouts also requires a continuous supply of contributors and buyers, much like in a Ponzi scheme.

Eventually the PAP will be forced to dig into the reserves, and then print money.
 

bobby

Alfrescian
Loyal
The PAP has essentially milked the country dry. The 2016 US election allowed us to put a label on it. It's called "neoliberalism". Immigration is a cornerstone of neoliberalism. That's what the PAP has been doing for the past 20 years - using immigration to inflate the economy, asset prices, etc. That trend is obviously unsustainable. You don't need a college degree to know that.

So what is the PAP going to do after their immigration tactic runs its natural course? They have no ideas. For that matter, I don't as well. The PAP has run the country to the ground and all the economic opportunities that once existed for the younger generation have either been consumed by the GLCs or simply destroyed through attrition. High asset prices paint a rosy picture that the country is doing fine. We know its not. Wages for the lower and middle have been stagnant and will remain so. Rising asset prices and continual CPF payouts also requires a continuous supply of contributors and buyers, much like in a Ponzi scheme.

Eventually the PAP will be forced to dig into the reserves, and then print money.

I think the "eventually" is happening now.....
 

Reddog

Alfrescian
Loyal
The country is in rapid decline; now accelerated by the abuse of "organ of state" to settle private disputes.

Leadership narrowed to an old, cancer strikened sick man who fainted during a speech and proven not to be a filial son. Proven to be even incapable of leading his own family as the eldest son. No hope.

Same sick man is loathe by the second (and destined to be the) most powerful country in the world.

Now, pray tell me ... where got hope. [You are generous to give it 20 years.]

Note: Our forefathers have checked into this 'hotel' located at the tip of the Malay Peninsula a few generations ago. All signs indicate that check out time is looming. Be wise for the sake of your future generations.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
The country is in rapid decline; now accelerated by the abuse of "organ of state" to settle private disputes.

Leadership narrowed to an old, cancer strikened sick man who fainted during a speech and proven not to be a filial son. Proven to be even incapable of leading his own family as the eldest son. No hope.

Same sick man is loathe by the second (and destined to be the) most powerful country in the world.

Now, pray tell me ... where got hope. [You are generous to give it 20 years.]

Note: Our forefathers have checked into this 'hotel' located at the tip of the Malay Peninsula a few generations ago. All signs indicate that check out time is looming. Be wise for the sake of your future generations.



The term is "dishonorable son".

Not I give 20 years. Aurvandil gave 20 years. Personally I'd say a bit longer, maybe 30. Reason? We have lots of reserves to dig in and the Sing dollar is recognized meaning we can inflate our way out of an immediate crisis without losing too much credibility (initially at least). That buys the PAP time.
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
not painful at all. life is good in sg.

IMG_0203.JPG
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
Reserves? How much is that? You know meh? Ong Teng Cheong asked that question and they would not give him an answer. You know meh?

So how much are the reserves?
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Its interesting how Singapore would have evolved if like the first cabinet, the leaders came form the wider population and not from the small catchment of scholars and senior civil servants. There has been no attempt to even consider people who have successfully done well in the private sector except doctors and lawyers. I remember when Richard Hu was brought in to replace GKS, the guy had no time for politics.

Part of the reason why the pool remains small is most people consider politics as dirty and unfair and want no part in it. Using lawsuits, taking the sledgehammer for every critical comment even when it is constructive, the control of the press is adding up and is doing more harm than good.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Reserves? How much is that? You know meh? Ong Teng Cheong asked that question and they would not give him an answer. You know meh?

So how much are the reserves?


You know very well both of us have no idea. But I suspect its a lot more that we both think - north of $500 billion would be my guess.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
You know very well both of us have no idea. But I suspect its a lot more that we both think - north of $500 billion would be my guess.

I suspect much less. That's the thing you see.

Would you buy a stock or fund that you have no idea what its value is? And they ask you to guess?

Seriously?

Singapore is built on a Ponzi scheme. And you know how all Ponzi schemes end. At least those Ponzi schemes told people how much they were worth. Singapore is so scared to say how much it has. Because probably it is much much less than what people guess.
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I suspect much less. That's the thing you see.

Would you buy a stock or fund that you have no idea what its value is? And they ask you to guess?

Seriously?

Singapore is built on a Ponzi scheme. And you know how all Ponzi schemes end. At least those Ponzi schemes told people how much they were worth. Singapore is so scared to say how much it has. Because probably it is much much less than what people guess.

official foreign reserves are always tabulated by the mas and kept up to date.

http://www.mas.gov.sg/Statistics/Reserve-Statistics/Official-Foreign-Reserves.aspx

official reserve assets as of april 2017 are at us$260.725b.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Its interesting how Singapore would have evolved if like the first cabinet, the leaders came form the wider population and not from the small catchment of scholars and senior civil servants. There has been no attempt to even consider people who have successfully done well in the private sector except doctors and lawyers. I remember when Richard Hu was brought in to replace GKS, the guy had no time for politics.

Part of the reason why the pool remains small is most people consider politics as dirty and unfair and want no part in it. Using lawsuits, taking the sledgehammer for every critical comment even when it is constructive, the control of the press is adding up and is doing more harm than good.



For a government that once claimed that human resources is Singapore's only true resource, this approach of co-opting "talent" is truly disgraceful. The pool is very small because a capable person has better opportunities to prove himself elsewhere where there is a chance of shine on a personal level. Its not so much that capable people don't want to be part of an oppressive regime, but more that they don't want to work under an umbrella where their best instincts will be continually reigned in and unless they rise all the way to the top, its going to be nothing more than being a glorified and well paid civil servant.
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
I suspect much less. That's the thing you see.

Would you buy a stock or fund that you have no idea what its value is? And they ask you to guess?

Seriously?

Singapore is built on a Ponzi scheme. And you know how all Ponzi schemes end. At least those Ponzi schemes told people how much they were worth. Singapore is so scared to say how much it has. Because probably it is much much less than what people guess.



I believe we disagree not on the final outcome but merely the timeframe. Having played stocks for many years I know Ponzi schemes run far longer and enrich far more criminals than we deem reasonable.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
I believe we disagree not on the final outcome but merely the timeframe. Having played stocks for many years I know Ponzi schemes run far longer and enrich far more criminals than we deem reasonable.

You can still win in a Ponzi scheme if you cash out before the music stops playing.

North of $500 billion is far higher (almost double) of the official figures. PAP is very good at feeding all these false securities to satisfy the insecurities of Singaporeans.
 

borom

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
When the music stops in this musical chair, the ones paying sky high property prices (esp leasehold) with no stable jobs will be the first to get it-and these are the very ones voting for them hoping that prices will forever be artificially propped up. Of course they can stop building (to reduce supply) or keep on importing foreigners (to increase demand) but the social cost on locals is very high -eg longer wait for HDB in the first instance and no jobs for locals in the second.

Either way the 70% need to be taught a painful lesson and they deserve it. There is really no cure for stupidity and as the theory of evolution shows,the weak (or in this case, the meek and weak with no balls to vote out an incompetent lot) will be eliminated and you only need to go to any children's playground to see that-foreigners overwhelm locals there.
The legacy of LHL is not the OR38 fiasco but the elimination of many of the very people who voted for him-what an irony!
 
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frenchbriefs

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
You can still win in a Ponzi scheme if you cash out before the music stops playing.

North of $500 billion is far higher (almost double) of the official figures. PAP is very good at feeding all these false securities to satisfy the insecurities of Singaporeans.

we have more than one sovereign wealth fund,temasek,GIC and CPF. some estimate our total reserves to be 700 billion,to as high as 1.3 trillion.

technically our sovereign funds are large enough to give us all swiss standards of living but apparently that is not happening.
 
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