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Serious Anatomy of a S’pore Financial Disaster: GIC’s investment in UBS

eatshitndie

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Asset
what shit are you talking about? The swiss feel threatened by zikapore, and consider zikapore a rival in the financial market. Ever since singapore modeled itself on the swiss banking system with its anonymity and no questions asked system, many swiss banking customers have fled to zikapore. Especially after the US DOJ start asking them for their customer information. The swiss would love to fuck zikapore over, and they did just that.

it's the u.s. and obama admin who screwed the swiss after the subprime fiasco, not sg. u.s. treasury department started asking swiss banks to reveal u.s. owners of secret or so called anonymous swiss accounts. of course, after that, swiss account holders were forced to find alternatives, sg among them. sg is not the only alternative secret safe haven. panama, canary islands, ireland are also in the mix. ubs had done a lot for sg in the past when sg needed swiss financing help. it's only right and honorable for sinkies and their hardearned reserves to fork out payback chump change as a form of emergency first aid when they are on life support. :p
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
Papsmearer good insights.

How much money do you think is really left in the Singapore reserves?
 

eatshitndie

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
I hope so. Then NK got reason to nuke Singapore and take all her money.

no need nuke. the wannacry ransomeware attack has signatures traced to nk. they will steal more money from online means. they even stole over usd200m from banks in bangladesh, of all cuntries one of the least in banking security. i'm somewhere nearby the border.
 

frenchbriefs

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Asset
Savvy business people like Buffet and Trump can spot this scam coming a million miles away. Can you imagine now, its almost 10 years into the investment and still the stock price cannot break SF$20, not even half of what they paid for it. My understanding is that Old Fart was a big influence on this deal. He has the angmo pinkerton syndrome and got the hard on really bad for the Swiss, so anything that comes out of their asshole is like shit to him. This are the same swiss that cheated the Jews of billions of $ after WW2.

The more u think about it the more u want to laugh or cry,this is financial engineering or scamming at it's finest.or financial brilliance

basicially when u get to the bottom of it and ignore all the financial hocus pocus and convertible bond all that shit,what the Swiss essentially did was to sell GIC or Temasek Holdings 230 million shares,except this was no ordinary shares,this was way worse,much much worse.GIC or temasek could not touch these shares for 2 years,at least if they have bought ordinary shares on the stock market,they could dump it the next day or the day after if the market continued to be bad and more bad news showed up,thus cutting their losses and limiting their downside,but they couldnt do this with the convertible bond,they were stuck for 2 years.

its like buying a option except there was no option,when the time limit is up u were forced to buy or sell,u couldnt choose not to exercise the option.the purpose of the option is u wanted to make a gamble on the stock market without risking alot of capital investing in the stock and then having the stock go down or up depending on which side u bet,instead u paid somebody a premium for the rights to purchase X amount of stock at the market price within a set period of time lets say six months,so within the next six months,if the stock market went up u could choose the execute the option and purchase the shares at X price and sell the shares for a profit,but if the stock went down during the next six months u could simply choose not to exercise the option and let it expire,thus limiting ur risk......thats the beauty of the option....it was invented by a genius who sought to find a way to maximise his profits in the market and reduce his risk exposure at the same time,he should have won the nobel prize or at least a mathematics prize.

except the deal Temasek got had none of this,the convertible bond they received forced them to convert to equity after 2 years at a predetermined price regardless of whether the stock went up or down.....essentially they were playing the stock market with one hand tied behind their back,ball gagged,bent over a table with a negro fucking them in the ass to the tune of pulp fiction.And UBS didnt cared,why they already got all their bases covered,why?because essentially what they did was sold Temasek a bunch of stock(230 million to be exact)at FAIR MARKET VALUE of $47 swiss francs per share,if the stock market went up,good on their titties,if the stock went down they stand to make a great deal of money,billions and billions!!!!whats more they have already collected their paycheck ALL 11 BILLION Dollars of it upfront,while Temasek is sitting around jerking themselves off,patting themselves on the back,thinking what a great deal they have made....The 2 year convertible bond at 9 percent interest is nothing,its irrelevant,its icing on the cake,its the bait to hook the whale in,the magic that makes everything possible,for the deal to work its magic.

UBS could see all the upside and downsides of the deal,Temasek couldnt see the oncoming train if they were a blind Ray Charles.

my god why isnt this exposed on forbes or bloomberg or at least brought up by opposition?11 billion dollars purported the biggest investment deal in Singapore history and this is how it went down?with a 60% loss?if these happened on wall street or public trust fund,the offices would have been sacked and raided and burnt and entire departments and board of directors would have been sacked.the entire fucking government should be sacked,

the biggest joke of all,what is the risk analysis and management department of Temasek doing?dont they know how to manage their risks with options and derivatives especially in a bear market?do they not know how to close positions and limit their exposures during a downturn.who in the world approved such a deal like this?i dunno about u but no fucking jewish investment banker,hedge fund,wall street firm would ever accept a deal like this.
 
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Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
The more u think about it the more u want to laugh or cry,this is financial engineering or scamming at it's finest.or financial brilliance

basicially when u get to the bottom of it and ignore all the financial hocus pocus and convertible bond all that shit,what the Swiss essentially did was to sell GIC or Temasek Holdings 230 million shares,except this was no ordinary shares,this was way worse,much much worse.GIC or temasek could not touch these shares for 2 years,at least if they have bought ordinary shares on the stock market,they could dump it the next day or the day after if the market continued to be bad and more bad news showed up,thus cutting their losses and limiting their downside,but they couldnt do this with the convertible bond,they were stuck for 2 years.

its like buying a option except there was no option,when the time limit is up u were forced to buy or sell,u couldnt choose not to exercise the option.the purpose of the option is u wanted to make a gamble on the stock market without risking alot of capital investing in the stock and then having the stock go down or up depending on which side u bet,instead u paid somebody a premium for the rights to purchase X amount of stock at the market price within a set period of time lets say six months,so within the next six months,if the stock market went up u could choose the execute the option and purchase the shares at X price and sell the shares for a profit,but if the stock went down during the next six months u could simply choose not to exercise the option and let it expire,thus limiting ur risk......thats the beauty of the option....it was invented by a genius who sought to find a way to maximise his profits in the market and reduce his risk exposure at the same time,he should have won the nobel prize or at least a mathematics prize.

except the deal Temasek got had none of this,the convertible bond they received forced them to convert to equity after 2 years at a predetermined price regardless of whether the stock went up or down.....essentially they were playing the stock market with one hand tied behind their back,ball gagged,bent over a table with a negro fucking them in the ass to the tune of pulp fiction.And UBS didnt cared,why they already got all their bases covered,why?because essentially what they did was sold Temasek a bunch of stock(230 million to be exact)at FAIR MARKET VALUE of $47 swiss francs per share,if the stock market went up,good on their titties,if the stock went down they stand to make a great deal of money,billions and billions!!!!whats more they have already collected their paycheck ALL 11 BILLION Dollars of it upfront,while Temasek is sitting around jerking themselves off,patting themselves on the back,thinking what a great deal they have made....The 2 year convertible bond at 9 percent interest is nothing,its irrelevant,its icing on the cake,its the bait to hook the whale in,the magic that makes everything possible,for the deal to work its magic.

UBS could see all the upside and downsides of the deal,Temasek couldnt see the oncoming train if they were a blind Ray Charles.

my god why isnt this exposed on forbes or bloomberg or at least brought up by opposition?11 billion dollars purported the biggest investment deal in Singapore history and this is how it went down?with a 60% loss?if these happened on wall street or public trust fund,the offices would have been sacked and raided and burnt and entire departments and board of directors would have been sacked.the entire fucking government should be sacked,

the biggest joke of all,what is the risk analysis and management department of Temasek doing?dont they know how to manage their risks with options and derivatives especially in a bear market?do they not know how to close positions and limit their exposures during a downturn.who in the world approved such a deal like this?i dunno about u but no fucking jewish investment banker,hedge fund,wall street firm would ever accept a deal like this.


Yes, u are basically repeating what I
said. i am going to add another piece to my initial post, because u unwittingly brought up a very very good point, and one that I had not considered. Please go back to post #1
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
Recent news in the media about the sale of a large stake of UBS bank shares to institutional investors by GIC and the unsurprising dearth in detailed reporting on the losses suffered prompted me to attempt to put some numbers on the matter.

Background:


In the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007/2008, many big banks were hit badly and many went under or were merged. These were toxic banking stocks, which were sitting on a mountain on non performing subprime debt. Banks making questionable housing loans packaged these loans into bundles to sell to investors, and used rating agencies to give the debt (bonds) an appearance of being investment grade quality. Many professional and institutional investors were staying away from the banking stocks, including Warren Buffet. For example, Buffet bought Goldman Sachs in 2011 after the blood had run its course on Wall Street for a bargain price and eventually earned over USD$2 billion on his stake’s appreciation.


The mechanics of the Investment


For reasons unknown to the citizens of Singapore, GIC decided to make an emergency capital injection of USD$10 billion investment into UBS, in other words, it became UBS’s knight in shining armour, in March 2008. No business case has ever been revealed as to why a sovereign wealth fund supposedly run by the highest paid civil servants in the world would buy into a toxic banking stock, other then to assume that GIC was gullible and deceived into making the investment. GIC’s investment of USD$10 billion (approximately S$13.9 billion) was converted into Swiss Franc, equivalent to approximately SF$11 billion. The actual investment itself was not in UBS common shares, nor convertible preferred shares (how Buffet bought his Goldman Sachs shares), but instead, it was in mandatory convertible notes with a coupon rate of 9%. In other words, UBS sold GIC its own IOUs. But the worse feature of the notes that GIC bought was the mandatory convertible feature. This feature stipulated that these notes must be converted to UBS common shares in 2 years time. There is no way out of this. The risk that GIC did not foresee was that the UBS common share price will tank in the 2 years that it has to convert the notes. A prudent investor would have known how desperate all banks were to receive cash infusion in the face of looming crisis and should have demanded say a 10 year convertibility clause at its own discretion. In other words, the notes can be converted at any time by the investor into shares within a 10 year window. I am certain that a desperate UBS would have would have agreed to this or any other clause. It was this clause that caused the losses suffered in UBS.


In 2010, at the maturation of the 2 years, the SF$11 billion investment was duly converted into common shares. At the time of the initial investment of SF$11 billion into the UBS notes, it was agreed that these notes would be converted in 230.7 million UBS common shares. This place the initial investment conversion price at SF$47.7 per share. (SF$11 billion divided by 230.7 million shares). But in 2010 when it came time to convert, the UBS shares were only worth SF$15.86 per share, making the total investment worth only SF$3.659 billion, and making the immediate paper loss equal to SF$7.341 billion or an average loss of over USD$3 billion a year. The conversion made GIC the largest investor in UBS at 6.6% ownership. The current stake of 93 million shares being sold is equivalent to 2.4% ownership.


The Calculation:


Price per share at initial investment = SF$47.7 per share.

Selling price per share for 93 million shares = SF$16.6 per share.
Actual loss = SF$2.89 billion


Interest income at 9% coupon rate for 2 years = SF$2 billion X .363636 (pro-rated) = SF$727 million


Forex difference: Investment was made by GIC converting USD into Swiss Franc. Since the initial investment, the Swiff Franc has gone down 10% versus the USD. Since this sale takes place in Swiss Franc and is converted back to USD, GIC also takes a 10% Forex loss on the investment. This is equivalent to another SF$289 million in losses.


Dividend history based on 230.7 million common shares:

2010 – No dividend distributed
2011 – 0.10 Francs X 230.7 million = SF$23.07 million

2012 – 0.15 Francs X 230.7 million = SF$ 34.605 million

2013 – 0.25 Francs X 230.7 million = SF$57.67 million

2014 – 0.5 Francs X 230.7 million = SF$115.35 million

2014- Supplemental dividend 0.25 Francs = SF$57.67 million

2015 – 0.85 Francs X 230.7 = SF$196 million
2016 - 0.6 Francs X 230.7 million = SF$138.42 million

Total dividends earned (approximately before tax) = SF$622.785 million


Total calculations (please note that these are best guess and without access to GIC information) in Swiss Francs


Realized loss $2.89 billion

Forex loss $289 million

Gross losses $3.179 billion

Less:
Interest income $727 million

Dividend income $622.785 million

Net losses $1.829 billion


Remember this is loss suffered only on the sale of this stake. GIC stills owns a substantial remaining stake, under 5% of the company. Finally, remember these famous last words?


Tony Tan said on Jan 29[SUP]th[/SUP] 2011 :



“We look to continue to hold on to our stakes in UBS and Citigroup for many years to come,” Tony Tan, deputy chairman of the Singapore sovereign wealth fund, said in a Jan. 29 interview at Davos, Switzerland, where he attended the World Economic Forum meeting. ‘But one never says never; if someone offers an extremely high price, of course we’ll look at the possibility.”


The only problem is that A) they did not hold it for many years to come B) No one offered them an extremely high price.

[FONT=&amp]Let’s be clear on one thing, citizens of Singapore. The PAP are not the smartest guys in the room[/FONT]

Continuation of the
Above starting thread:

.........................So far, you are seeing a lot of incompetence, mistakes, bad decisions etc. But where it becomes negligent is in its failure to protect this SF$11 billion investment. GIC failed to hedge its risk in this very substantial investment. They knew they were getting 230.7 million shares 2 years from now. No one knows what the price of the shares will be at that time. Even without the subprime crisis, they would still have no idea what the stock price will do. They should have mitigated this risk, but failed to do so. There are many futures and options instruments they could have bought to hedge their position, but apparently failed to do so.I don't pretend to know this options market, but certainly, there are people in SIngapore they could have hired to manage this for them. It would have cost them some premiums in options. But it might have saved them hundreds of millions of SF$. They might have even made some money on it. They could have bought LEAPS Long-term Equity AnticiPation Securities, which can go out to 2 years into the future, hence covering their impending conversion. If LEAPS were not available for UBS shares ( there are LEAPS for 2,000 equities out there), they might have bought the same LEAPS for an index, like say the DJIA or DOW. That way when the market plummeted, which it did in 2008, they might have made some money betting against it. Again, I don't pretend to be an expert on puts and calls. But i have some basic knowledge, enough to know they should have hedged their positions but apparently did not. This is the part that is just downright negligent. Maybe even criminally so. Thanks to frenchbrief for the inspiration.
 

johnny333

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
In the Malaysian 1MDB scandal Najib is facing a lot of heat because he is accused of stealing only US$700 million.

The UBS losses are bigger & will cost taxpayers about US$12 billion & it is just one of many loses that Temasek has made. Whether the $$$ is lost because of an honest mistake, gross negigence, embezzled, stolen,.... it is gone.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
And Malaysians say that Singapore is lucky dun have a Najib. LOL!

Sovereign funds and other big funds eg Canada Pension have been said to have a different game to play. Because they move huge amounts of money they cannot buy into stocks like an average investor can. If they buy something in hundreds of millions it moves the price sky high.

I remember reading an article about this. What the Big funds might do is buy into stuff only they can eg buy a piece of Real estate in New York or something.

I am not sure if such large funds can use options to hedge in that way as well.
 

Papsmearer

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Generous Asset
In the Malaysian 1MDB scandal Najib is facing a lot of heat because he is accused of stealing only US$700 million.

The UBS losses are bigger & will cost taxpayers about US$12 billion & it is just one of many loses that Temasek has made. Whether the $$$ is lost because of an honest mistake, gross negigence, embezzled, stolen,.... it is gone.

1MDB can lose USD$700 million to Najib, but at least they pay their citizens 6.4 % and 5.7% on their CPF. PAP lose $1.5 billion, and pays 2.5%. Feel happy or not. Fucking 70% are brainless shits to vote for this sort of people.
 

CoffeeAhSoh

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Loyal
***


Disappointed With UBS Loss, Singapore's GIC Fund Cuts Stake (3)

Jan-Henrik Förster and Klaus Wille,Bloomberg 18 hours ago

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(Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC Pte ceased being the biggest shareholder in UBS Group AG after cutting its ownership by almost half, saying it was “disappointed” that it lost money during nearly a decade in which it was invested in the Swiss bank.

GIC sold a stake of about 2.4 percent at 16.10 francs ($16.20) a share, according to people familiar with the matter, for total proceeds of about $1.5 billion. The fund’s stake fell to 2.7 percent.


“Conditions have changed fundamentally since GIC invested in UBS in February 2008, as have UBS strategy and business,” GIC Chief Executive Officer Lim Chow Kiat said early Tuesday in a statement. “It makes sense now for GIC to reduce its ownership of UBS and to redeploy these resources elsewhere.”

GIC invested in Switzerland’s biggest bank early in the financial crisis, purchasing debt that converted into stock when UBS needed capital to cover losses on subprime mortgage bonds. In 2010, the Singapore wealth fund became the bank’s largest investor after the securities were converted into stock. UBS has since given up its ambitions to become a top global investment bank, focusing instead on the more predictable business of wealth management.

The shares were bought by about 140 investors, and the top 10 took about half of the deal, according to a person with knowledge of the transaction. UBS shares fell as much as 2.5 percent in early Zurich trading and were down 1.9 percent at 16.30 francs as of 9:34 a.m.

‘Rare Chance’

GIC’s shift from UBS comes after the investor warned that it is bracing for lower returns amid elevated market volatility and persistently low interest rates. The sovereign fund, which invests Singapore’s foreign reserves, said in July that a key measure of returns fell to 4 percent in the 20-year period ended March 31, 2016. In the past year, GIC has embarked on a series of leadership changes and elevated many investment managers to key roles.


The 2008 crisis “offered a rare chance to take major stakes in the international banking sector,” GIC said in its statement. The fund made a profitable investment in New York-based Citigroup Inc.

“The combined return on the UBS and Citigroup investments has been positive in mark-to-market terms,” GIC added in a later statement.

To read Andy Mukherjee’s take on GIC’s stake sale, click here.

GIC was among a number sovereign funds to pour money into struggling banks during the financial crisis, underestimating the severity of the downturn and betting that the industry would recover quickly. Instead, new regulations forced banks to scale back risk-taking with their own money. Many lenders, particularly in Europe, are still trading below their peaks reached before the crisis.

“GIC lost a lot of money on its UBS stake, so looking at both investments in totality is a way of softening the blow of that loss,” said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist at CIMB Private Bank in Singapore. “It is a sensible thing to try to get the money back by shifting into other opportunities as there are certainly plenty.”

Jeffrey Jaensubhakij, GIC’s new chief investment officer, has said technology and health care may offer promising investment opportunities over the next decade, as muted global growth weighs on returns from traditional assets.

To read more on GIC’s investment thesis, click here.

"Maybe GIC just found better ways to invest their money, maybe they had enough of banking,” said Peter Casanova, a Kepler Cheuvreux analyst.

UBS shares have climbed 2.2 percent this year, though they’re still well below where they traded in December 2007, when GIC first announced its investment. UBS at the time was raising capital amid a $10 billion writedown on subprime mortgage investments. The infusion wasn’t enough to avoid a bailout the following year, when UBS’s toxic investments were moved to a fund backed by the country’s central bank.


By the time GIC completed the conversion of its 11 billion Swiss francs of notes, the stock had lost about two-thirds of its value, though the unrealized loss was partly offset by interest payments.

(Updates with pricing in second paragraph.)

--With assistance from Simone Foxman and Ruth David

To contact the reporters on this story: Jan-Henrik Förster in Zurich at [email protected], Klaus Wille in Singapore at [email protected].

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Elisa Martinuzzi at [email protected], Christian Baumgaertel, Paul Armstrong

©2017 Bloomberg L.P.
 

Narong Wongwan

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
1MDB can lose USD$700 million to Najib, but at least they pay their citizens 6.4 % and 5.7% on their CPF. PAP lose $1.5 billion, and pays 2.5%. Feel happy or not. Fucking 70% are brainless shits to vote for this sort of people.

1.5 billion is realized loss. Paper loss no count yet.
Also matlanders can withdraw their EPF....sinkies wait until die first
 

po2wq

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Asset
... The Singaporeans probably had never received a call from the 1st World to rescue them and felt honoured ...
prc praised sinkielan sky hi n invited sinkielan 2 help build world crass industrial estate in prc ...
 

ckmpd

Alfrescian
Loyal
Papsmearer good insights.

How much money do you think is really left in the Singapore reserves?

I think perhaps only a handful know the real situation of our reserves. Even OTC, an ex DPM and Elected President, cant get that information from the PAP. That's how bad the situation is.

That's why LHL is scared that someone not within his inner circle gets to be PM.

I suspect that even the running dog GCT didnt know how much reserve SG had when he was PM. The strongman at that time was LKY, not GCT. If I remember correctly, LYK was Chairman of GIC when GCT was PM
 
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mojito

Alfrescian
Loyal
In the Malaysian 1MDB scandal Najib is facing a lot of heat because he is accused of stealing only US$700 million.

The UBS losses are bigger & will cost taxpayers about US$12 billion & it is just one of many loses that Temasek has made. Whether the $$$ is lost because of an honest mistake, gross negigence, embezzled, stolen,.... it is gone.

Just a temporary setback, what gone? Money gone can earn back. Don't forget PAP has good track record making money.
 

ckmpd

Alfrescian
Loyal
Just a temporary setback, what gone? Money gone can earn back. Don't forget PAP has good track record making money.

what money did PAP make?

All I remember was that PAP lost $20B in suzhou and much $40+ billions during the financial crisis
 

mojito

Alfrescian
Loyal
what money did PAP make?

All I remember was that PAP lost $20B in suzhou and much $40+ billions during the financial crisis

GST, S-pass levies, maid levies, water up, electric up, grocery price up so smart which government can do that other than the PAP you tell me? Lose a bit of moneys only no scare, we will earn it back tenfolds.
 
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