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Serious The only viable Foreign Policy for S’pore and why the PAP will not implement

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
Singaporeans must be feeling as though they have been caught between a rock and hard place recently or like the proverbial grape in a wine press. I refer to the less then stellar relations with the US and China and how Singapore is caught between the 2 of them. Lee Hsien Loong has mentioned in a recent BBC interviewed that Singapore’s loyalties to the US and China may one day be tested. The PAP feels betrayed by the US due to the sudden cancellation of the TPP, and also by China over the confiscation of the Terrexes in Hong Kong. We have been walking a fine balancing act between the 2 countries, and like the girlfriend who is two timing with 2 boyfriends, everything is breaking down now. China does not want us this close to the US orbit and influence, while the US wants us to help them be a bulwark in the South China Seas against the Chinese. When we appease the US by criticizing China for not respecting the Hague ruling on the South China Sea, we get roundly scolded by the Chinese. At the same time, the US is very far away and has other commitments in Asia and therefore, we cannot rely on them to there with us even when we have been there for them in the past.


Our foreign policy regarding these 2 countries was born out of the Cold War and formulated by the minds of Lee Kuan Yew, S Rajaratnam, and Goh Keng Swee. The policy was straightforward back then. It was to make friends with the biggest baddest kid on the block in the hopes that he will look out for you. So when there was a very real Communist threat in SE Asia, we were friends of the US, offering our port for resupply and R & R during the Vietnam War. We had hope that the US will stay around this region to prevent a Communist Domino Theory from sweeping all of South East Asia. So far so good, it was a simple policy based on befriending the one Superpower that was in the Region. Russia at that time was more focused on Europe.


Things changed when China opened up under Deng Xiao Peng. When Lee Kuan Yew took the initiative to start a dialog with China, they were appreciative as they were the relative new comers to the market economy. But no one realized how fast China would grow and become an economic Superpower and on its way to being a military one too. Gone are the appreciative Chinese officials at the first contact, they are replaced by western trained, well educated, well connected Chinese officials not afraid to use their new found country wealth and economic clout. The PAP has failed to find any sense of rapport with this new generation of leaders and we are now paying the price for it. Whether it was arrogance from the PAP’s second and third generation leadership, or whether it was through sheer incompetence, we will likely not know. But one telling fact is that since S Rajaratnam and his 15 years as Minister for Foreign Affairs, the last 2 Minister (Shamnugam and Vivian Balakrishnan) have had a grand total of 6 years as Foreign Minister between them. Although Rajaratnam did not have a foreign affairs or a diplomat background, he was a reporter and cognizant of international politics going on in the region. In addition, his long tenure allowed him to set up the Singapore diplomatic corp as well as be well versed in foreign policy. By Contrast, the last 2 aforementioned Ministers were a lawyer (Shanmugam) and an eye surgeon (Balakrishnan). Prior to this 2 Ministers, we had a RSAF scholar Brigadier General (George Yeo), and another lawyer who had bounced around several portfolios before becoming Foreign Minister (Jayakumar). Needless to say, you cannot formulate a sound and progressive foreign policy with such people who are not trained in it, nor have a passion for it.


Hence, we have such simple gaffes in our foreign eg. Provocatively sailing 9 Terrexes from Taiwan into 2 Chinese controlled ports. And speaking about the South China Seas issue when we have no stake in it.


The PAP’s policy of not choosing sides only works when you have a smart and wise person like Lee Kuan Yew to play one side against the other. That does not seem to be the case now. The current crop of leadership does not know how to do this. Let’s just consider the entire Terrex fiasco. Would it have happened if Lee Kuan Yew was still around? And if he did, would they not be released if Lee picked the phone up and called the Chinese leader? If the answer is no and yes to these 2 questions, then it speaks volumes about how far off our leaders are.


In my opinion, the only viable foreign policy we should follow is one of self imposed permanent neutrality, based on the Swiss and the Swedish example. We must not align ourselves with any of these superpowers, and we have to state unequivocally that we will stay out of their orbit of influence and we will take no sides. A neutral country can still be very economically viable and prosperous, while avoiding conflict. In fact, the PAP used to always bring up Swiss standard of living as a gauge, but if we want to copy something from them, why not copy their neutrality instead of just their economic success. We already have many of the hallmarks of what successful neutral countries have:


1) 1)A small and independent citizen army. We have this through National Service already. So does Switzerland.


2) 2)An independent home grown arms supplier to cut down reliance on overseas supplies, supplemented by imported weapons. Switzerland has home grown weapons manufacturers like Oerlikon (now Rheinmetall), SIG Sauer and Pilatus. We have ST Aerospace, ST Kinetics and ST Engineering, whose products are supplemented with such US weapons like the F-16 and F-15. Switzerland has F-18s and F-5s in its air force.


3) 3)A strong banking system, which all combatants trust. Knowing that a neutral country will not likely freeze its assets due to political considerations, it makes the bigger powers more accepting of a country’s neutrality and more likely to want to keep it neutral if that is a place they can trust will keep their money and bullion safe.

4)
4)We have no natural sworn enemies, just like the Swiss. Countries like Israel cannot be neutral, because other countries are sworn to destroy them. We do not have such animosity towards us.



A neutral country will save a lot of money on its defense budget. We don’t need all that fancy offensive toys we have now. The entire Swiss defence budget is under USD $5 billion, while ours is over $14 billion. We can just concentrate on defending our own turf, become masters of urban close combat battle, and make sure that any potential attacker will pay a very heavy price. A neutral country will earn the trust of China and the US. They may not like it, but they will respect it. This will mean that we have to kick out all the foreign military bases and organizations in Singapore. Kick the Israelis and their military mission out. Ban the US fleet from using Singapore and the same for the USAF. Stop our overseas training in Taiwan, US, etc. Sever all military ties with China and the US, other then for weapons purchase. But, we should still keep our training facilities in more non align countries like Australia and Germany.

Will the PAP carry out such a bold move? Not likely. It requires guts and audacity on their side, and I don’t think the PAP has it. And someone is making a lot of money from a $14 billion a year defence budget. That is really hard to give up.
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
[h=1]Singapore PM offers blunt assessment of US relationship[/h] Nyshka Chandran | @nyshkac
3 Hours AgoCNBC.com























Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong turned heads Tuesday when video of a blunt commentary on his nation's U.S. and China relationships was posted online.
Speaking to the BBC, the normally diplomatic Lee hinted that his country's loyalties to both Beijing and Washington could one day be tested.
"If America, China relations become very difficult, our position becomes tougher because then we will be coerced to choose between being friends with America and being friends with China," he said. "That's a real worry. Right now we are friends with both — it's not that we don't have issues with either, but we are generally friends with both, and the relationships are in good working order."
The prime minister then told the BBC interviewer that he was "sure" the Chinese were committing "close and sustained attention" to their relationship with Washington, but he said that he hopes "they will have that attention" in the U.S. government given its other global concerns.
"Unless you focus on this relationship — both the win-win aspects as well as the areas where you're in contention — it can go wrong," he added.


103883141-GettyImages-585206776.530x298.jpg
Pete Marovich | Pool | Getty Images
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong greets guests during an official visit to the White House on August 2, 2016.

Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management, said that it was rare for Lee to speak so bluntly about a trade-off between the U.S. and China.
In a December speech, Lee had previously warned Singapore would be "in a very difficult spot" should U.S.-China relations grow tense.
Fears of a U.S-China trade war are high and should President Donald Trump act on his campaign promise of imposing tariffs on the mainland, a country he blames for the loss of American jobs, global exports and imports may get hit. Singapore, home to one of the world's busiest ports, stands to particularly suffer as its economy is heavily reliant on international trade.
"Singapore is clearly deeply annoyed at the U.S. abandoning TPP," said Chovanec, referring to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement that was scuttled by the Trump administration.
Before the U.S. presidential election, Lee was "already quite outspoken" in saying that Trump's decision to abandon the deal would hurt the U.S. and its credibility in the region, Chovanec explained.
"Singapore is more important than it might seem, at first glance, because of the quiet but strategically important security relationship it already has with the U.S., which relies on Singapore as a regional supply base for naval operations," he said.
"If abandoning TPP, along with other moves, cause Singapore and other countries in Asia to see the U.S. an unreliable partner, the implications could be quite serious."
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
4)We have no natural sworn enemies, just like the Swiss. Countries like Israel cannot be neutral, because other countries are sworn to destroy them. We do not have such animosity towards us.

Err....it has nothing to do with "natural sworn enemies". When you are surrounded by Islamic Nations.......

Swiss are not surrounded by Islamic Nations (at least not yet).
 

kryonlight

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Err....it has nothing to do with "natural sworn enemies". When you are surrounded by Islamic Nations.......

Swiss are not surrounded by Islamic Nations (at least not yet).

Papsmearer will tell you there's no need to fear Malaysia and Indonesia. I think that presumption might be valid in the past, but with Muslim terrorism mastermind Saudi Arabia starting to invest heavily in these two countries, things might change drastically within the next 20 years. Things are not looking good with the sand niggers meddling around the region.

Saudi King To Haul 509 Tons of Cargo to Indonesia

Saudi Aramco to buy $7 billion stake in Petronas' RAPID refinery project
 

Papsmearer

Alfrescian (InfP) - Comp
Generous Asset
Err....it has nothing to do with "natural sworn enemies". When you are surrounded by Islamic Nations.......

Swiss are not surrounded by Islamic Nations (at least not yet).

What has being surrounded by ISlamic Nations got to do with anything? Are u saying that having a ISlamic neighbour will mean you will be invaded? Understand one thing, we are surrounded by water. When our neighbours can figure out how to cross that en masse, then that's when we start to worry.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
What has being surrounded by ISlamic Nations got to do with anything? Are u saying that having a ISlamic neighbour will mean you will be invaded? Understand one thing, we are surrounded by water. When our neighbours can figure out how to cross that en masse, then that's when we start to worry.

Yeah I guess that's what the British said about the Japanese in World War II.

Aiyah you are the smartest person in Singapore lah.

Last discussion/debate about the freehold vs leashold land you never replied after I summarily tore apart your delusional view that leasehold and freehold were the same.

I will put you in the winnipegjets category. Lunatic. Will no longer engage or discuss anything with you.
 

Charlie99

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Err....it has nothing to do with "natural sworn enemies". When you are surrounded by Islamic Nations.......

Swiss are not surrounded by Islamic Nations (at least not yet).

It appears that the Swiss did not make the same mistake as Sweden and Germany, allowing too many Muslim immigrants and refugees.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
It appears that the Swiss did not make the same mistake as Sweden and Germany, allowing too many Muslim immigrants and refugees.

Yes. But their border neighbors are France, Germany, Italy, and Austria. As we all know, France has its fair share of issues with Islamic Terrorism. Germany is having issues with its Muslim immigrants and refugees. It is only a matter of time before some of that spreads to Switzerland.

In any case, we know that the strategy of the Muslim community is to take over the world by births and population.

So the only way to combat them is for the rest of us to have more children. Otherwise in a democratic system where the majority population is going to be Muslim, it is inevitable that Sharia Law will prevail. The liberals are not only helping the Muslims achieve this goal, they are condemning anyone who disagrees with that plan.
 

Charlie99

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Yes. But their border neighbors are France, Germany, Italy, and Austria. As we all know, France has its fair share of issues with Islamic Terrorism. Germany is having issues with its Muslim immigrants and refugees. It is only a matter of time before some of that spreads to Switzerland.

In any case, we know that the strategy of the Muslim community is to take over the world by births and population.

So the only way to combat them is for the rest of us to have more children. Otherwise in a democratic system where the majority population is going to be Muslim, it is inevitable that Sharia Law will prevail. The liberals are not only helping the Muslims achieve this goal, they are condemning anyone who disagrees with that plan.

I believe that history will prove that Justin Trudeau will be wrong, by allowing the Muslims and other refugees to cross from USA to Canada.
I sort of agree with Trump, otherwise, the USA will follow the route of the UK, where it is projected that the Muslims will form the majority, in the 25 to 30 years.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
I believe that history will prove that Justin Trudeau will be wrong, by allowing the Muslims and other refugees to cross from USA to Canada.
I sort of agree with Trump, otherwise, the USA will follow the route of the UK, where it is projected that the Muslims will form the majority, in the 25 to 30 years.

Europe has been taken over by the Muslims already. They are trying hard for North America now.
 

Charlie99

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Europe has been taken over by the Muslims already. They are trying hard for North America now.

Let just hope that the USA and Canada "smarten up",
and restrict, or better still, ban further Muslim immigrants and refugees,
because those who are already here, are able to sponsor their spouses and children.

If they wish to practise their ultra conservative "values" and do not comply with the Judeo-Christian values of USA and CANADA,
I hate to say it, but they should remain in their home countries.
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
Let just hope that the USA and Canada "smarten up",
and restrict, or better still, ban further Muslim immigrants and refugees,
because those who are already here, are able to sponsor their spouses and children.

If they wish to practise their ultra conservative "values" and do not comply with the Judeo-Christian values of USA and CANADA,
I hate to say it, but they should remain in their home countries.

There has been a change to the parent sponsorship program at CIC. It is now a lottery system. I hope this "non transparent" system is a way to filter undesirable migrants. Although it does not benefit my family, I think it would be good for the future of Canada.

The liberals do not realize that the MOST fascist and right wing intolerant people are the Muslims and Islamists. Everywhere they go they impose their rules and cultures on others. If they cannot touch eat , smell or see pork then NO ONE else can. All meat has to be slaughtered according to how THEY do it. There is nothing progressive about Islam.
 

chootchiew

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Not bad at all. Can I add another to allow home grown buangkokway to open business instead of awaykway?
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
The US has an interesting set of dynamics where emigrants from whatever background they come from. The second generation speak, think and operate in a very similar way. This is unlike the UK, much of Europe and even OZ or NZ. These latter countries tend to accommodate multiple identities and allowing cultural ghettos or enclaves to prevail. Even the 3rd generation continue to have their native accent to some extent.

Canada is also closer to the US in this respect. For Canada, they have learnt to handle French separatist and mindful of followers of this nature.

Look at Catholics clergy in the US, OZ and much of the World. They have been screwing kids for centuries, a practice that their hierarchy have condoned. But you will see that they will not address the issue publicly, admit any liability or even take action against their own, leaving the hard work to be the public servants and good samaritans.

Instead of following the herd, one must be mindful of watching what has been going for years in your own backyard. Look at the red necks. Look at the Timothy Mc Veighs .
 

nayr69sg

Super Moderator
Staff member
SuperMod
Still better than a bunch of Sinkies who keep voting a government that favours foreigners protects them gives them advantages and perks and screws it's own people. Meanwhile the Sinkies will complain on the streets in the forums but come election will still vote the PAP. A very interesting dynamic that one is. And all this going on in your own void decks (sorry don't have much backyards to talk about).
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
We cannot be neutral. We are not sitting in the midst of Western Europe where our liberal neighbours will step in on our behalf. Switzerland operating out of Europe and surviving as a neutral country is a myth. We are also not like Kuwait in the Middle East where other Arabs and their oil dependents proxies will step in.

We are in a sea of Malays and the largest Muslim populous country is a few miles south of us. Singapore despite Tungku agreeing to vouch for and sponsoring our sovereignty with the UN is historically a Malay land. Anyone who thinks the British conquered and ruled the World thru consensus and mutually reciprocating treaties are simple minded.

Goh Keng Swee is the stingiest person in Singapore's political history. He was a miser all his life and no politician before and since have come close to him when it comes to penny pinching. Yet he was the founding father of the SAF. He was prepared to spend on training and arms to protect a fragile country.

I have no doubt that the present leaders have been squandering on things that we do not need such as subs, military training areas and bases in nice locations with great weather but the policy of deterrence, massive pre-emptive strikes or retaliation is a necessary one. You cannot frighten a bear with a dog whistle.

A citizen army in a Chinese majority nation is a laughable concept. Any Chinese who voluntary signs up is an exception. They would be better of doing business and running their own show. When Govt was struggling with Nantah grads and employment, they pulled many into the public service including Mindef. They refused to join the uniform service. So many ended up in logistics and procurement. They ended up running a black market and corruption with suppliers was rife. The whole lot had to be cleaned out. One of them from that era is now a leader of an opposition political party despite his corruption conviction.

Note that the SAF scholarship scheme was not the work of GKS but old man who wanted to look after his sons. The entire SAF scholar program including the wrangler scheme was the work of old man and his wife.



In my opinion, the only viable foreign policy we should follow is one of self imposed permanent neutrality, based on the Swiss and the Swedish example. We must not align ourselves with any of these superpowers, and we have to state unequivocally that we will stay out of their orbit of influence and we will take no sides. A neutral country can still be very economically viable and prosperous, while avoiding conflict. In fact, the PAP used to always bring up Swiss standard of living as a gauge, but if we want to copy something from them, why not copy their neutrality instead of just their economic success. We already have many of the hallmarks of what successful neutral countries have:


1) 1)A small and independent citizen army. We have this through National Service already. So does Switzerland.


2) 2)An independent home grown arms supplier to cut down reliance on overseas supplies, supplemented by imported weapons. Switzerland has home grown weapons manufacturers like Oerlikon (now Rheinmetall), SIG Sauer and Pilatus. We have ST Aerospace, ST Kinetics and ST Engineering, whose products are supplemented with such US weapons like the F-16 and F-15. Switzerland has F-18s and F-5s in its air force.


3) 3)A strong banking system, which all combatants trust. Knowing that a neutral country will not likely freeze its assets due to political considerations, it makes the bigger powers more accepting of a country’s neutrality and more likely to want to keep it neutral if that is a place they can trust will keep their money and bullion safe.

4)
4)We have no natural sworn enemies, just like the Swiss. Countries like Israel cannot be neutral, because other countries are sworn to destroy them. We do not have such animosity towards us.



A neutral country will save a lot of money on its defense budget. We don’t need all that fancy offensive toys we have now. The entire Swiss defence budget is under USD $5 billion, while ours is over $14 billion. We can just concentrate on defending our own turf, become masters of urban close combat battle, and make sure that any potential attacker will pay a very heavy price. A neutral country will earn the trust of China and the US. They may not like it, but they will respect it. This will mean that we have to kick out all the foreign military bases and organizations in Singapore. Kick the Israelis and their military mission out. Ban the US fleet from using Singapore and the same for the USAF. Stop our overseas training in Taiwan, US, etc. Sever all military ties with China and the US, other then for weapons purchase. But, we should still keep our training facilities in more non align countries like Australia and Germany.

Will the PAP carry out such a bold move? Not likely. It requires guts and audacity on their side, and I don’t think the PAP has it. And someone is making a lot of money from a $14 billion a year defence budget. That is really hard to give up.
 

retrenched

Alfrescian
Loyal
i hope the catholic church can eradicate all abuse soon.

it is going to be difficult since most accusations are made many years later.

the church has 2000 years of history, much of it when pp did not think rationally, that it cannot distance itself from, unlike independent churches.

members of independent churches, brainwashed by their pastors (and their wives) to hand over 10% of their pay, are also brainwashed to attack catholics, to get them to come over and donate 10%.

just because they are low profile and can disband, they behave like hypocrites:

https://www.google.com.sg/?gws_rd=ssl#q=do+other+religions+sexually+abuse+children+too&start=0&*
 

aurvandil

Alfrescian
Loyal
The danger is real. The reaction to corruption and supression is often religion. The longer Najib clings to power, the more likely that Malaysia will become an Islamic state.

We are in a sea of Malays and the largest Muslim populous country is a few miles south of us. Singapore despite Tungku agreeing to vouch for and sponsoring our sovereignty with the UN is historically a Malay land.
 

rusty

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Paranoid is the by product of too much boasting.
Brunei a rich nation run by arguably the richest man in the world, net worth USD20 billion, never boast or was unduly worried about being attacked by others. He just enjoys what he does in a country where people never heard of school fees, medical fees or taxes. He is not obligated to China nor US.
Singapore is too boastful...everything number one and the best.
 
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