Singapore, After The Next Election

dancingshoes said:

nice read and good info. by bro RUN, hope to see more coming, many thanks!

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Private bankers are also telling us that their clients are giving them sell-on-strength instructions to offload local shares and financial assets and the money is remitted to other safehaven markets, particularly US.

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Runifyouhaveto said:

I do not know when is the next elections, but this is what will happen thereafter:

1. SGD Strength

Our economy contracted about 4.6% q-o-q recently.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/gov...ittle-changed-from-flash-estimate-of-46-q-o-q
-4.6% is a bad as the 1997 economic crisis. There are plenty of speculations that we have been defending our currency’s strength. Till date, Euro Japanese Yen, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian rupiah depreciated about 20-30% against USD within 2 years while SGD dropped about 7% in the same period.

Today, we paid the price. Our economy tanked harder than Malaysia although their import and export stalled after implementation of GST. SGD is now too strong and ruined our exports and tourist receipts. Even the lacklustre Eurozone fared better than us.

Private bankers are also telling us that their clients are giving them sell-on-strength instructions to offload local shares and financial assets and the money is remitted to other safehaven markets, particularly US.


http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?180967-SGD-Strong-Ringgit-Weak&p=2210459#post2210459
On the last trading session before NDP, SGDMYR briefly traded 2.85 before closing at 2.835 for our NDP. We hit 2.85, not because of Ringgit’s weakness (Ringgit was quite consistently-priced against USD that day), but due to a small spike in SGD at closing. Apparently, we wish to have a nicer number to mark our 50th NDP.

We are probably entering deflation mode. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is down for 8-straight months.
http://www.straitstimes.com/busines...-prices-down-03-in-8th-straight-month-decline
The easy way to create a little inflation is to hike taxes and depreciate SGD, going forward.
Eg. We increased our petrol tax by 15-20 cents recently.

Therefore, in all likelihood, we are in recession. SGD will be given more room to depreciate after the incumbent into office again, so that our economy can take a breather

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The Investment bankers took up stakes in listed local O&G, Construction & minor Property companies
At the same time, the EDs made their RMs provide massive loans, trade facilities and OD facilities to the same companies companies, making so made so much money from revenue points
Some of these companies turned sour and the banks' risk dept want to recall some of the risky loans

but they cannot because their investment arm also invested in their customers.
conflict of interests

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dancingshoes said:

adding on, someone i know, a local senior engineer in the manufacturing firm from U.S., has started on shorter work week.

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6. Regulatory Oversights

a financial institution is in deep shit too
Their investment arm is sitting on many listed counters with >30-50% losses
because the investment bankers colluded with the EDs in the same bank

The Investment bankers took up stakes in listed local O&G, Construction & minor Property companies
At the same time, the EDs made their RMs provide massive loans, trade facilities and OD facilities to the same companies companies, making so made so much money from revenue points
Some of these companies turned sour and the banks' risk dept want to recall some of the risky loans

but they cannot because their investment arm also invested in their customers.
conflict of interests
Do you think Iceberg Research n Muddy Waters dare to expose them in 2016?

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Runifyouhaveto said:

Just met a second-hand car dealer at a drink

We read about many people visiting car showrooms because COE is weaker. He shared with me another side of the story; there are many people buying but there are also many selling.

Many locals bought new cars at high price in the past 2-3 years (Earlier SK-series car plate), many of them are offloading prematurely because they cannot cope with their finances. Many of them are our capable young PMET who are now stuck in car-debts, reno-loans, housing-loans and credit card bills. Of course, the first thing they offload, is car.

This quiet but rather big group of people are just selling and not buying to replace.

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Runifyouhaveto said:

I do not know when is the next elections, but this is what will happen thereafter:

1. SGD Strength

There are plenty of speculations that we have been defending our currency’s strength. Till date, Euro Japanese Yen, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian rupiah depreciated about 20-30% against USD within 2 years while SGD dropped about 7% in the same period.

Today, we paid the price. Our economy tanked harder than Malaysia although their import and export stalled after implementation of GST. SGD is now too strong and ruined our exports and tourist receipts. Even the lacklustre Eurozone fared better than us.

Private bankers are also telling us that their clients are giving them sell-on-strength instructions to offload local shares and financial assets and the money is remitted to other safehaven markets, particularly US.


http://www.sammyboy.com/showthread.php?180967-SGD-Strong-Ringgit-Weak&p=2210459#post2210459
On the last trading session before NDP, SGDMYR briefly traded 2.85 before closing at 2.835 for our NDP. We hit 2.85, not because of Ringgit’s weakness (Ringgit was quite consistently-priced against USD that day), but due to a small spike in SGD at closing. Apparently, we wish to have a nicer number to mark our 50th NDP.

We are probably entering deflation mode. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is down for 8-straight months.
http://www.straitstimes.com/busines...-prices-down-03-in-8th-straight-month-decline
The easy way to create a little inflation is to hike taxes and depreciate SGD, going forward.
Eg. We increased our petrol tax by 15-20 cents recently.

Therefore, in all likelihood, we are in recession. SGD will be given more room to depreciate after the incumbent into office again, so that our economy can take a breather

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Runifyouhaveto said:

2. Taxes and Govt Revenues

In the last FY, betting and gambling contributed billions to our state coffers and latest dismay financial results from casino operators, are hinting that we will see slowdowns in gambling receipts The recent drop in equity prices in Singapore, China and other parts of the world will probably translated to lower contributions from our state’s investment vehicles. Thirdly, we will receive significantly-less from property-related stamp duties due to the quiet property market this year.

Nevertheless, we will not expect our state’s budget expenses to be reduced as much as the decline in our state’s revenue.

As such, it likely that we will face higher taxes after the incumbent regains control over the parliament after the elections, to limit any budget-deficits.

This is also Killing 2 birds with one stone; Consumer Prices are also crumbling in Singapore, so tax hikes will create a little inflation and that impact of hiking taxes on the man-on-street will not be felt in the macroeconomic numbers.

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Runifyouhaveto said:

3. Property Prices

In 1H15, we experienced the slowdown in general property prices. There were 3 noticeable trends:
- Tier 3:
HDB prices (index), adjusted about a moderate 10% from its peak
- Tier 2:
In the $800K to $1.5mio sector, Private Condos registered a smaller drop and $1000psf private condos is a norm for most units (Condo resale prices inch up 0.4% in June http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/condo-resale-prices-inch-up-04-in-june-srx-property
- Tier 1:
Big-ticket Private properties above 2.5mio were badly hit and mostly fell by double-digits and registering losses in hundreds of thousand. http://www.straitstimes.com/business/loss-making-property-transactions-on-the-rise-in-singapore

The Tier-1 slowdown is an advanced indicator of property trend with some concerns for demand, interest-rate outlook and a tightening credit market.

In Tier-3, HDB increased the supply in HDB to satisfy eager young couples in recent years and the BTO-prices had increased steadily over the years, providing support for resale HDB market. However, there are emerging reports that some resale HDBs are now sold at similar price as BTOs. Most of these sellers are taking multifold-profits or upgrading to private properties as a huge wave of condos are due for completion in 2015-2017. This points to the possibility that unsold BTOs stockpile will increase.

In June, the government hints at the possibility remove or raise the HDB income ceiling for BTOs. This policy is expected to be welcomed by the higher-income electorate who will enjoy one more housing option. At the same time, it will also absorb part of the unsold BTO stockpile and limit any potential downside in BTO prices.
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore/hdb-raise-income-ceilings-bto-flats-ecs

Given the possibility of the incumbent being re-elected, the above proposed measure is expected to be implemented. However, it will erode the demand in Tier-2, forcing prices to be adjusted to a more competitive level.

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Runifyouhaveto said:

4. Domestic Help
Singapore wants to reduce reliance on low-skilled foreign workers and there have been some unhappy issues with major maid-sources such as Indonesia or Myanmar. At the same time, Singaporeans are being gradually introduced to the concept of being enrolled into JB nursing homes for their retirement. This is going to be a fast-growing business that will reduce our reliance on maids; with a wave of Singaporean and/or Malaysian –owned nursing homes in JB being expanded or built to cater for the old from Singapore.

However, policymakers can never directly force our senior citizens to be parted with their children or grandchildren.

For that to happen, the levy for maids will be gradually raised. This will increase the pressure for the sandwiched middle-aged who have to juggle between work, caring for elders and children. When the cost of having a personal maid (maid’s levy, maid’s salary and maid’s living expenses) for our seniors, becomes much higher than JB’s nursing home, the economics will justify the separation from family.



Is Grandma destined for export to Johor Baru?
http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/is-grandma-destined-for-export-to-johor-baru

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Runifyouhaveto said:

5. Population

Since 1965, Singapore and Malaysia almost tripled their population within 50 years, exceeding that of Thailand and Indonesia.

However, Malaysia’s birthrate per 1000 population is appx 17.6 in 2013 (significantly higher than Singapore’s 7.9 per 1000 population) while death rate is almost identical in both countries.

Country – Historical Population Growth – 2013 Birth Rate – 2013 Death Rate
Malaysia – Similar – 17.6 – Similar
Singapore – Similar – 7.9 – Similar

The above statistics reflects a trend that the incumbent adopts an inorganic population strategy, going forward. Policies will continue to favour integration and settlement of new citizens and permanent residents (PRs) into the country, eg. more-equal job opportunities for PRs, subsidized housing and extending pro-rated Baby Bonus benefits to children of new citizens, etc.

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Runifyouhaveto said:

6. Regulatory Oversights

a financial institution is in deep shit too
Their investment arm is sitting on many listed counters with >30-50% losses
because the investment bankers colluded with the EDs in the same bank

The Investment bankers took up stakes in listed local O&G, Construction & minor Property companies
At the same time, the EDs made their RMs provide massive loans, trade facilities and OD facilities to the same companies companies, making so made so much money from revenue points
Some of these companies turned sour and the banks' risk dept want to recall some of the risky loans

Click to expand...

Runifyouhaveto said:

8. AG Audits

This is a recent carefully-worded and fair AG Audit report
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/auditor-general-s-report/1985482.html


The local business community reported severe delays in govt-project payments in recent 2 years. The points highlighted by the AG audits appears to be in line with the root of the causes.
- Finance Officers withholding payment unless benefits are shared.
- Disbursement of payments to invoices with discrepancies or related-parties.
- Superiors who seek the inclusion of items in PO (amending original Purchase Orders) or replacement with inferior substitutes, without a proper diligence process.
- Ground-supervisors who blackmail vendors for verifying job-completion.
- Failure to consider generic products of better specifications at similiar or better prices, due to favouritism in tenders.

The problem involves public-infrastructure, maintenance services, hospitals and education sector. Some local listed companies who depend a significant portion of their income from govt-related projects, are now faced multiple month delays in payment or requests for give benefits to the black-sheeps in civil service.

A handful are facing cash crunches and massive losses due to project-financing, forcing them to either raise cash equities from shareholders in the next 12-months or risk becoming insolvent. Overnight, safe local public projects become toxic for these few listed companies.

To maintain a corruption-free image, Singapore will certainly take stringent actions against less-honest civil servants after the elections. There is no absolute urgency at this moment and exposing more of these ill-doers now, will create unfavourable sentiments among the electorate.

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