Re: History of China-Japan relations and why USA takes Japan's side in Diao Yu island
The history of China and Japan is rooted in deep geopolitical realities that time can never erase. Here's a brief synopsis, the way i understand it:
Japan has always been in need of raw materials ever since it industralized in the late 19th and early 20th century. It has no raw materials of its own, so everything has to be imported. As such Japan's security lies in its control of the shipping lanes via which it trades raw materials with other countries.
Since Japan is also an export-oriented country, control of the shipping lanes is also vital to ensure smooth exchange of products and services that form the foundation of its economic growth.
World War II was about Japan re-asserting its right to access the raw materials of the world. Incursion into Siberia was debated by the Japanese government, but that idea was discarded. The rest is history.
In the 19th century, japan, along with other western powers, encountered china in the midst of one its isolationist periods - poor but united politically under the central government. Japan and other western powers forced China to open its coasts to international trade. As such, the coastal regions became prosperous. However, the interior remained impoverished. This inequality created tension between the interior and the coastal regions. The latter became more aligned with the western powers and its interests started to run counter to that of the central government. The situation escalated until the central government felt that the country's very sovereignty was being threatened, and the seat of power of the central govt was being unravelled.
Mao Ze Dong lead a Long March to raise an army of poor peasants and overthrow the Western imperialists. In the middle of that, Japan invaded and committed vast atrocities in China. This formented the Chinese psyche against Japan who they see as willing to go to any length no matter how terrible to secure their access to markets and raw materials. The atrocities committed by Japan was so out of proportion to the geopolitical motives that it forever cemented a tension between the two countries. At the end of Mao's Long March, he returned China to a state of isolated and China once again became poor but politically united under an iron-fisted regime.
This state of affairs lasted until Mao's Death, whereupon Deng took the greatest gamble of China's history. Deng gambled that he could re-open China to the international trading system without compromising China's internal security or the central govt's grip on power. His gambit payed off. China began a 30 year upswing. The coast again became prosperous. But now as the 30 year upswing is drawing to an end, restlessness has again begun to forment in the interior. We see this restlessness in Wukan and in other interior provinces where demonstrations have become more commonplace and arrest of dissidents in recent years have escalated.
The central govt knows that as the 30-year upswing is nearing its final stages, instability has once again arisen within the country and the rift between the rich coast and the impoverished interior again threatens the fabric of china's national unity.
The only card they can play now is the nationalism card. That is why the china govt has in recent years begun to take a far more aggressive posture with regard to its neighbours. China is now strengthening is navy and becoming more militant. It is asserting all sorts of territorial claims and antagonizing other countries, provoking its neighbours into responding in a matter than would allow the central govt to play the nationalist card with its own citizens. By formenting military conflicts throughout the region, China hopes to galvanize its own citizens under its nationalistic banner and unite the country.
Japan on the other hand, has suffered a 20 year malaise. It knows time is rapidly running out. Within another 20 to 30 years, its population would have declined sharply. Japan needs to do something fast or it would fade into oblivion.
Japan cannot handle immigration due to the nature of the Japanese, who abhor foreign influx. To secure Japan's economic future, japan must therefore set up shop in neighbouring countries like China and exploit the cheap labour there. By doing so, japan can avoid having to resort to foreign influx to boost its failing economy.
This strategy however runs counter to what China is currently doing. China is desperate. China wants to play the nationalism card and unite the people under the concept of national pride. As an immediate corollary to this, China also wants to prevent the coastal regions from falling under the influence of other nations.
Thus, as Japan attempts to exploit china's workforce, the central chinese government must respond with counter measures. Thus, the stage is set for a geopolitical conflict to erupt between japan and china.
Japan also is increasing its military might in order to secure the shipping lanes that are so vital to its national security. China on the other hand, also wants to assert itself militarily in the region in order to preserve its own territorial integrity against the kind of imperialistic invasion that it suffered in the late 19th and early 20th century. Thus, territorial conflict between japan and china is inevitable in the coming years. The Diao Yu Dao islands are a harbinger of things to come.
Japan and China look set to confront each other. Each will be posturing itself aggressively, but what appears to be militant measures will in fact be defensive measures, as each country will in fact be trying to protect itself. The United states will be happy with this state of affairs. As japan and china lock horns, the united states will play its own cards to lock them into an inextricable dilemna, and so create a balance of power in the region. That is what the US is doing now.
