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Challenges for the parties

tanwahp

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
The GE was 7th May 2011 and we're practically 2-1/2 years plus 3 weeks through the 5 year term. The parties would have identified their next mission, but this is what I think they should really do.

PAP

They will tell you that their aim in every election is to win all seats but deep down they know that's impossible. Many of the problems today were policy misjudgements planted decades ago and reversing them now can only bear fruit decades later. Hence they are expected to only lose more seats rather than the opposite.

Even if they can regain the old level of support it will come after they lose more support and by the time they might not actually gain back that support when the opposition prove itself capable.

Whatever the case their aim should be to stop worrying about that, just stay as the ruling party with a simple majority, get back to the drawing board to solve these problems and not play too much politics simply to re-dominate. Maybe this will pay off better.

WP

Nab a second or even third GRC. Let's not kid ourselves that any opposition(s) can form the government in 2016. At the same time, WP's conservative self tells me that they don't appear very keen to win a second GRC for one election for fear of bungling and losing everything. But it might be given rather than wanted that they will grab a second GRC, as they have another A team in place made up of the 2 NCMPs.

SDP

Examine how they can attract, retain and use talents. They have a queer situation where a group of hardcore loyal hands who aren't vote-getters sit in the leadership, and highly qualified entrants who either join last-minute and do not stay long, or do not commit much. This is unlike other parties whose core group has people of both qualities and their best sit on top of the hierarchy. Any wins and gains may not be sustainable if an organization does not have the fundamentals right. Remember 1993.

SPP, NSP and DPP

Form an A team to nab their first GRC. NSP and DPP can achieve this. It might be more helpful if both came together since they are the most similar but looks like it is unlikely. SPP does not have a first team but by virtue of the Chiams, they can find some good last minute entrants. Unlike SDP, party structure is not an issue as they are not dominated by one person (or for SPP case the person won't stay long). One important thing for DPP: roping in GMS will dash that hope.

RP and SDA

Honestly I don't have much to say for them because there is too much to say. The areas they fall short and need to improve are too many. They need a CEC, proper website, activities and newspapers and haven't got the basics. With no more than 3 core members with them, KJ and DL might be better off closing shop and doing something more constructive with their lives.
 
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jw5

Moderator
Moderator
Loyal
Good read, succinct and clear.
After reading this, I know who to vote for already.......................... :wink:
 

metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
So this thing about challenging for one good GRC. Does it really work? Why not a straight fight in one of the SMCs where the incumbent is not the strongest?
 

Thick Face Black Heart

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
The GE was 7th May 2011 and we're practically 2-1/2 years plus 3 weeks through the 5 year term. The parties would have identified their next mission, but this is what I think they should really do.
.



tanwahp,

Pretty much agree with your concise analysis of the situation. Some points to add

(a) The Ego Factor

This will continue to strongly impact all parties. PAP will be reluctant to admit that their current decline is caused by incredible policy blunders made years ago. They will always maintain they acted in a principled way, just that they screwed up the implementation (very much like LHL's 2011 "sorry" address at Boat Quay). They will continue to ask Singaporeans to be patient, and at the same time continue distracting people with petty things like cyber-bullying, internet news licensing, fixing the opposition (ceiling saga, shopkeepers saga, etc). But they will never admit to structural policy mistakes. In other words, PG and "sorry" for minor errors, but never PG to any major mistakes.

PAP will aim to contain WP in HG, PE and Aljunied with as much "fixing tools" as possible (expect more ceiling sagas and negative TC reports to appear), but I suspect they will fail as people will vote based on what they can see on the ground, which will be quite the opposite of how the MSM spins it.

SDP will continue to be governed by one man and his ideas. NSP will be held in stasis as long as the old guard hold their ground. Basically ego will hold all of them back.

(b) NSP/SPP/DPP don't look ready to win yet

At the current juncture, even with declining PAP support base, I would say these parties are not ready to win. Aljunied carried the day because of LTK and Sylvia. LTK spent twenty years and Sylvia 10 years garnering enough political capital to make it happen. PE was basically spill-over from Aljunied, and also by-election effect, similar to Anson. Pretty hard to replicate either condition with NSP/SPP/DPP in a GE setting. NSP despite all the years of existence never cultivated the political capital LTK and Sylvia have. Chiam has the political capital but rapidly diminishing due to his age and health.

These three parties need to seriously rethink and rebrand. This leads back to (a) - Ego factor. To get the serious overhauling necessary, much ego will have to be sacrificed. Bitter pill must be swallowed, liabilities cut off, some good men and women who would otherwise be great in civil activism but poor in electoralism have to be confined to quarters for the sake of greater good. Can they do this? Depends on how much they want to win. I believe if a party truly wants to win they will do the necessary no matter how disruptive or painful.
 

metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
In general that's the problem with the run-up to GE 2016. The PAP has to work hard, and the opposition has to work hard. But it is easier to work hard when you're drawing a fat salary at the same time simply because you're in office. In football, newly promoted clubs have this thing called the second season syndrome. During the first season, many of them are able to overperform and avoid relegation because they have a cinderella effect, everybody is cheering for them, they're coasting on adrenaline, and people haven't figured out the right strategy to beat them. In the second season they will be relegated because none of these three conditions last for very long.

The big question in 2016 is: will the second season effect apply to the opposition parties in 2016? There is a momentum for the opposition because people are still as disgruntled with the PAP as they were in 2011. But they will also be judging the opposition on its own merits. Stay tuned for the next episode!
 
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