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Punggol BE Pundits stumped, PAP launches rescue boat

metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
a number of things to note.

1. the passing of the late Mdm K seems to mark the visible start of the downward spiral of the MIW. is she the soothsayer for the MIW? giving the old man advice on the direction in which they steer this ship?

2. a non-promise of a political office means nothing to the electorate these days. for fucks sake! me, as a part of the Aljunied GRC voters, along with many others rejected a full minister and an upcoming Speaker of the Parliament!

what is the MIW thinking these days? me wonder :p:p:p

I don't think that Mdm K has any direct involvement in politics. The PAP have never been terribly astute politically when it comes to wooing the voters. Has nothing to do with a golden era in the past where the PAP were they were great at public speaking, they had nobody since Lim Chin Siong and Fong Swee Suan. It's just that the opposition has woken up, that's all. All these names - Pritam Singh, Wijeysingha, Nicole, Jeanette, Chen Show Mao, Png Eng Huat, Tan Jee Say, Ang Yong Guan - how many of us have heard of them before 2011? Before 2011 Gerald Giam was just some dude with a blog.

You did not reject a full minister and an upcoming speaker. You actually rejected 2 full ministers and an upcoming speaker.
 

giggity_shit

Alfrescian
Loyal
honestly, if not LLL, do they anyone else?

Does LTK know something we do not?

This is the question that I have been asking myself when it comes to Lee Lilian. I am aware of LTK's shrewdness after being given a lesson by JW5. Sure Lilian is a nice person, hardworking, committed and would do everything possible for her voters.

But she is not in the mould of politicians as we know it. In 2011, she did incredibly well against Palmer who is well qualified and considered a nice guy. Nice enough and capable enough to front panel discussions for the PAP like Shanmugam just before GE2011. Yet the Lilian got 41% of the votes in what was regarded as safe territory. WP branding cannot be the only factor. It could be the fact that voters in Punggol want a local politician. And Lilian fits the bill to a T. It may also explain why Dr Koh from the word go is dying to cast himself as a local and doing the humbleness to death.

I also found Pritam' speech very intriguing. Note how it was all about Lilian, her husband and her parents. Her help in dealing with voters. Nothing to do with PAP politics.

Looks like the wily fox picked LLL not for her loyalty and commitment over the years as a reward but honestly believes that she would be the person that voters want.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
This is what pundits made up of policy wonks, academics, roundtable and political wannabees and bullshitters came out with yesterday. Punggol East is marginal to WP while Joo Chiat and East Coast is core. That was the starting position by all without exception when election was called when the discussions began. The focus thereafter everyone agreed was on SDP rather than WP. Dr Koh's poverty campaign threw everyone off. The question to ask is why was this man doing something unusual.

Then the little sitreps starting flowing in from those who are connected - PAP unsure, Palmer in 2011 underperformed and reduced the precint's margin while under a GRC in 2006 of over 30% to just 13.5% after it was carefully selected and carved out. Also told that Palmer got PA's A team of GRC organisers to work with him, that party water wands were also lost etc etc.

Some things considered trivia also started to loom quite large. Its common knowledge that PAP talks to the captive press reporters to gauge ground readings. What they got was quite interesting. Same reporters who covered both PAP and WP door to door as well as walk-outs saw distinctly different receptions. Residents were forthcoming, talkative, and even offered drinks and snacks to the Lilian and her crew but not for the son of Punggol though they remained cordial. Png was considered the new Auntie Killer while LTK and SL are considered as legends.

Faisal also came across very well and was well received with his family in tow. Apparently he has got a killer smile. WP was also using all their MPs - Pritam, Yee, G and Chen to good effect. The notion that they are perceived as being with the people is a big factor and might have changed PAP's mind of bringing in the rest of their big wigs..

Most importantly WP volunteers was a composite of society - young, old, fat, thin and looked sincere.
 
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metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
It says something when the PAP's best hope of winning an election centers around a MCF diluting the opposition vote.

Having said that, I'm still not optimistic about a WP win. I give them a slim 10-15 percent chance of victory at best. Fingers crossed I'm completely wrong.

I would have given WP a 10-15% chance of victory in a straight fight and 0 chance in a MCF.
 

metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
But she is not in the mould of politicians as we know it. In 2011, she did incredibly well against Palmer who is well qualified and considered a nice guy. Nice enough and capable enough to front panel discussions for the PAP like Shanmugam just before GE2011. Yet the Lilian got 41% of the votes in what was regarded as safe territory. WP branding cannot be the only factor. It could be the fact that voters in Punggol want a local politician. And Lilian fits the bill to a T. It may also explain why Dr Koh from the word go is dying to cast himself as a local and doing the humbleness to death.

I also found Pritam' speech very intriguing. Note how it was all about Lilian, her husband and her parents. Her help in dealing with voters. Nothing to do with PAP politics.

Looks like the wily fox picked LLL not for her loyalty and commitment over the years as a reward but honestly believes that she would be the person that voters want.

I think we can analyse all we want about the "reasons" why LLL was picked. I believe that you always put the incumbent in, especially for a party best known for working the ground. There are very few exceptions, and when they take place, they have to be explained very carefully (ie Low Thia Khiang to Aljunied).

I think maybe WP might be avoiding the politics because to talk about politics would highlight how little they've actually talked about politics in parliament since they got in in a huge way. They're going to talk up their "likeability" factor, since if they talked about politics, I'm not sure they can win the PAP. In any case, the PAP has cocked up so much in the last 2 years that there's no need to talk about all the problems. LLL is not being rewarded with her "years" of loyalty and commitment, since I heard that she was just a counting agent in 2006.

If they can get a Png Eng Huat into parliament with more than 60%, LLL is not a big problem.
 

metalmickey

Alfrescian
Loyal
This is what pundits made up of policy wonks, academics, roundtable and political wannabees and bullshitters came out with yesterday. Punggol East is marginal to WP while Joo Chiat and East Coast is core. That was the starting position by all without exception when election was called when the discussions began. The focus thereafter everyone agreed was on SDP rather than WP. Dr Koh's poverty campaign threw everyone off. The question to ask is why was this man doing something unusual.

If you had asked me to predict the results of 2011 I would have said that Aljunied, Hougang and Potong Pasir would fall, Bishan Toa Payoh and Marine Parade would be close. Maybe Holland Bukit Timah would be close as well. As it turned out, Joo Chiat and East Coast was totally unexpected. Point is - what's the purpose of predicting what your "worst" seats are going to be? PAP will have some predictions about which of their seats would fall in 2016, and you'd expect everybody to guess wrong as well. Joo Chiat and Punggol East are basically the same. One seat is one seat.

People were barely able to understand the meaning of the Hougang elections. The fact that WP won by more than 60% did not seem significant at that time. If Punggol East becomes a big swing against the PAP to the extent that the PAP only wins by a few percentage points, then in hindsight, we can intepret the Hougang result as a swing against the PAP.
 
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wwabbit

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
This is what pundits made up of policy wonks, academics, roundtable and political wannabees and bullshitters came out with yesterday. Punggol East is marginal to WP while Joo Chiat and East Coast is core. That was the starting position by all without exception when election was called when the discussions began. The focus thereafter everyone agreed was on SDP rather than WP. Dr Koh's poverty campaign threw everyone off. The question to ask is why was this man doing something unusual.

Then the little sitreps starting flowing in from those who are connected - PAP unsure, Palmer in 2011 underperformed and reduced the precint's margin while under a GRC in 2006 of over 30% to just 13.5% after it was carefully selected and carved out. Also told that Palmer got PA's A team of GRC organisers to work with him, that party water wands were also lost etc etc.

Some things considered trivia also started to loom quite large. Its common knowledge that PAP talks to the captive press reporters to gauge ground readings. What they got was quite interesting. Same reporters who covered both PAP and WP door to door as well as walk-outs saw distinctly different receptions. Residents were forthcoming, talkative, and even offered drinks and snacks to the Lilian and her crew but not for the son of Punggol though they remained cordial. Png was considered the new Auntie Killer while LTK and SL are considered as legends.

Faisal also came across very well and was well received with his family in tow. Apparently he has got a killer smile. WP was also using all their MPs - Pritam, Yee, G and Chen to good effect. The notion that they are perceived as being with the people is a big factor and might have changed PAP's mind of bringing in the rest of their big wigs..

Most importantly WP volunteers was a composite of society - young, old, fat, thin and looked sincere.

It is all really surprising. Before nomination day I totally wrote off WP's chances of winning the ward, but now I'm not so sure. I thought that WP won't put much effort into this as running the Punggol East Town Council would be a burden they could do without. But I was completely wrong about that. Now they are putting the resources of the entire party just for one seemingly paltry little SMC, it's obvious they are super serious about winning this while in contrast the PAP don't seem to be taking this seriously.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Frankly I was hoping for Yee or GG in view of the profile. When I heard that LLL was top of the list no matter what SDP or PAP were coming out with, I thought that the Fox was reserving his best for 2016. I now think that the Fox has a great understanding of the ground. The fact that PAP launched Project Son of Punggol attests to it.

honestly, if not LLL, do they anyone else?
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
One chap told us that he cannot recall a time where analysts were as lost as this am sure most of us are in the position that you are in. There are also other things that does make this election seem quite odd. Nobody is exchanging barbs, the press is low key, and one would have expected Aimgate to have a profile but zilch let alone Palmergate.

I did note that the Fox is playing a mini BEEs approach where he and SL have stated that they are not looking to cripple the PAP but to give them opportunity to fix things.


It is all really surprising. Before nomination day I totally wrote off WP's chances of winning the ward, but now I'm not so sure. .
 

aurvandil

Alfrescian
Loyal
Just watched KJ's rally. CNA trying their best to downplay the non existent crowd. This provides more empirical evidence that SDA/RP combined will have less than 1,000 votes.

The reporters were somewhat slow to report the ground reaction. When I saw the pics posted by sengkkang, I knew the ground had shifted massively. Food and drinks aside, note the sheer number of people willing to have their pics taken. This is a first so many are willing and speaks of the greater political transformation which is happening.

Not surprised by the bs that KJ will split the PAP vote. That is simply denial of what is happening because it is so shocking.

Previously it was unthinkable that WP would win given the 4CF. I am now going to call something which will shake PAP to the core if it happens - WP might win Punggol East by an ABSOLUTE majority.

Appreciate your insight of what will happen if this occurs.

One chap told us that he cannot recall a time where analysts were as lost as this am sure most of us are in the position that you are in. There are also other things that does make this election seem quite odd. Nobody is exchanging barbs, the press is low key, and one would have expected Aimgate to have a profile but zilch let alone Palmergate.

I did note that the Fox is playing a mini BEEs approach where he and SL have stated that they are not looking to cripple the PAP but to give them opportunity to fix things.
 
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kingrant

Alfrescian
Loyal
Not quite true. LTK and PEH did take a dig at Palmergate - LTK said "Heaven has eyes" alluding to retribution for attacking them during YSL. SL gave away as much when she said at the end of her speech that they will talk abt TC another time. So AIM probably reserved for the last burst of fire to ambush the PAP.

and one would have expected Aimgate to have a profile but zilch let alone Palmergate.

I did note that the Fox is playing a mini BEEs approach
 
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brocoli

Alfrescian
Loyal
Frankly I was hoping for Yee or GG in view of the profile. When I heard that LLL was top of the list no matter what SDP or PAP were coming out with, I thought that the Fox was reserving his best for 2016. I now think that the Fox has a great understanding of the ground. The fact that PAP launched Project Son of Punggol attests to it.

quit rationalising your choices....

LLL was always the top of the list if you talk to Party volunteers, there was never any doubt...

picking Yee or GG has no upside, only downside....

even ignoring incumbency arguement, LL was the top candidate, she was the 1 of the few under consideration for Hougang

LL was more personable than Choon Yong, more enthusiastic than Frieda, and more commited than either Glenda or Angela... Hong Boon was never in the running....

even if she is no MP material, neither are the above....

there are no lack of policy guys but i think they are very far from the centre of power...
 
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HTOLAS

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Back in 2006 (I think) LTK used 'heaven has eyes' to note that the rain stopped just in time for the rally then. This time, he is probably using the phrase on yet another level.

Not quite true. LTK and PEH did take a dig at Palmergate - LTK said "Heaven has eyes" alluding to retribution for attacking them during YSL. SL gave away as much when she said at the end of her speech that they will talk abt TC another time. So AIM probably reserved for the last burst of fire to ambush the PAP.
 

zhihau

Super Moderator
SuperMod
Asset
I don't think RP and SDA add together will reach 3%.
I won't be surprised if add together will be less than 2%

DL wouldn't even get a percentage point, am looking at some hundred odd votes at most.
KJ ada Englishmen accent, the moderate PAP voters whom does not wish to vote for WP will give him their votes, this way, he would chip away some PAP votes. folks whom accidentally voted for DL would have a choice if they are anti-PAP & anti-WP, thus me suspect he can garner minimum 5% :p:p:p
 

ray_of_hope

Alfrescian
Loyal
DL wouldn't even get a percentage point, am looking at some hundred odd votes at most.
KJ ada Englishmen accent, the moderate PAP voters whom does not wish to vote for WP will give him their votes, this way, he would chip away some PAP votes. folks whom accidentally voted for DL would have a choice if they are anti-PAP & anti-WP, thus me suspect he can garner minimum 5% :p:p:p

I think yours is somewhat wishful thinking. For the PAP folks, elections are not tikam tikam hor. Why would PAP voters give Jeya any votes?
 
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