SDP withdrawal puts the pressure on RP and SDA to withdraw

Whatever the reasons, the surprise withdrawal of SDP last night puts the pressure on RP and SDA to similarly withdraw.

Contrary to what the PAP paid analysts said on the MSM, I believe the SDP withdrawal has enhanced rather than diminished the stature of SDP. The ability to eat humble pie for the greater good is a trait many Singaporeans appreciate.

This leaves RP and SDA as the two remaining contenders in PE. Because of all the publicity of split votes and PAP stealing victory, I believe that voters who want a PAP alternative are going to consolidate behind WP. This gives WP a chance to win in spite of the odds.

Under such circumstances, I expect a great deal of humiliation for RP and SDA if they proceed. From GE 2011, 1387 voted for SDA. This is thus the base of voters who wanted a PAP alternative but who did not vote WP. As noted previously, I expect this base to shrink because of the recent publicity over the split vote.

As such, it is highly likely that RP and SDA will get less than 1,000 votes together !

Coupled with the way SDP withdrew, this will end the political career of KJ if he presses forward.



The political career of Desmond Lim is already long over so I don't suppose there is much to lose other than another round of public humiliation.

SDP withdrew because there were enough rationally thinking people left in the CEC able to put a stop on the self damage done.

It doesn't look like SDA or RP have these kind of people.

wwabbit said:

SDP withdrew because there were enough rationally thinking people left in the CEC able to put a stop on the self damage done.

It doesn't look like SDA or RP have these kind of people.

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Pollmani paints a pic of massive split within SDP where the SG is isolated.

It is unlikely KJ will withdraw. He has inherited his dad's kepala batu traits and will barge in despite being fully aware the odds are not in his favour. As for DL, he has a thick skin matched by an equally thick head. Whether his purse is also thick is a difficult question!

groinroot said:

It is unlikely KJ will withdraw. He has inherited his dad's kepala batu traits and will barge in despite being fully aware the odds are not in his favour. As for DL, he has a thick skin matched by an equally thick head. Whether his purse is also thick is a difficult question!

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Some do it purely for the publicity, whatever the cost in terms of money or reputation.

Chinese WANBAO political analyst once said if SDP joined in, it will be a 3 cornered fight.
but if SDP backs out, it will only be a 2 and a half cornered fight.
Reason being they predicted the votes garnered by SDA and RP is insignificant to
affect the outcome of the total votes in the BE.
Meaning a very high chnace of SDA and RP to lose their deposits.

coolguy said:

Chinese WANBAO political analyst once said if SDP joined in, it will be a 3 cornered fight.
but if SDP backs out, it will only be a 2 and a half cornered fight.
Reason being they predicted the votes garnered by SDA and RP is insignificant to
affect the outcome of the total votes in the BE.
Meaning a very high chnace of SDA and RP to lose their deposits.

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Not just a question of losing deposits. At 2-3% it is a loss of much more.
The SDP types do not like that to happen. hahaha

Live Blog from yahoonews :

1042am: PAP candidate 40-year-old surgeon Koh Poh Koon arrives accompanied by DPM Teo Chee Hean.

1043am: Eccentric potential independent candidate Zeng Guoyan turns up on a bike in a Middle Eastern outfit. When asked if he was going to contest, he said, "Time is not up yet"

1046am: Reform Party's Kenneth Jeyaretnam turns up flanked by a few supporters.

1053am: WP's Lee Li Lian arrives at the Nomination Centre accompanied by WP chairman Sylvia Lim and Hougang MP Png Eng Huat. "We're good and ready to go," says Lee.

Desmond where?

godiva said:

Live Blog from yahoonews :

1042am: PAP candidate 40-year-old surgeon Koh Poh Koon arrives accompanied by DPM Teo Chee Hean.

1043am: Eccentric potential independent candidate Zeng Guoyan turns up on a bike in a Middle Eastern outfit. When asked if he was going to contest, he said, "Time is not up yet"

1046am: Reform Party's Kenneth Jeyaretnam turns up flanked by a few supporters.

1053am: WP's Lee Li Lian arrives at the Nomination Centre accompanied by WP chairman Sylvia Lim and Hougang MP Png Eng Huat. "We're good and ready to go," says Lee.

Desmond where?

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1107am: Independent candidate Ooi Boon Ewe spotted, says he lost his nomination documents and "someone stole them"

KJ is confirmed in. DL's paper is not up yet.....
The 2 independent clowns had left.

According to CNA, former PAP MP Ong Ah Heng expect contest to be tight.
Maybe he has some insider info?

cunnilaubu said:

According to CNA, former PAP MP Ong Ah Heng expect contest to be tight.
Maybe he has some insider info?

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As is becoming obvious, if someone says they know, it means they do not.
And those who truly know are not saying. hahaha

As I said, this scenario - SDP averting disaster at the last minute, and RP stepping right into disaster - will be pretty good for the SDP. The problem is - who's going to take over the seats contested by RP and SPP during the last election?

Very consistent message from WP. Today at the Nomination Centre, LTK and LLL said they welcome whomever to contest. They have never asked for there to be a straight fight. Only those who are not confident about themselves talk about "opposition unity".

cunnilaubu said:

KJ is confirmed in. DL's paper is not up yet.....
The 2 independent clowns had left.

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The independent clowns are PAP's plan B in case it is true that the opposition trying to pull a fast one on them. If they are in they will staunchly attacking the PAP to dilute WP share of votes.

cunnilaubu said:

KJ is confirmed in. DL's paper is not up yet.....
The 2 independent clowns had left.

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The 2 clowns are smarter than Desmond.......they got their 15 minutes of fame without losing deposit.......

wwabbit said:

SDP withdrew because there were enough rationally thinking people left in the CEC able to put a stop on the self damage done.

It doesn't look like SDA or RP have these kind of people.

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They don't have people at all.

cunnilaubu said:

According to CNA, former PAP MP Ong Ah Heng expect contest to be tight.
Maybe he has some insider info?

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Ponggol town is not a place where PAP can try to get warm with.

Agree. The votes gathered by RP and SDA will not be statistically significant overall.

Only worry is if say PAP gets 47, LLL gets 46, and then the spoilers get a combined 6%. They would have effectively denied LLL the victory she deserves, because clearly had they not contested, LLL would definitely have received the lion's share of that 6%. That would be again a tragedy.

coolguy said:

Chinese WANBAO political analyst once said if SDP joined in, it will be a 3 cornered fight.
but if SDP backs out, it will only be a 2 and a half cornered fight.
Reason being they predicted the votes garnered by SDA and RP is insignificant to
affect the outcome of the total votes in the BE.
Meaning a very high chnace of SDA and RP to lose their deposits.

Click to expand...

Just on the basis of ground response (offline) and online, it is somewhat doubtful that the combined vote for RP and SDA would exceed 4%. Probably maybe closer to 3%.