There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a crisis

the full quote is

“There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a precarious future,” Mr. da Cunha said. “Those who think that way seem to dismiss the power and virtue of incumbency, where there are enormous inbuilt institutional advantages.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2011/12/05/singapores-men-in-white-seek-fresh-look/

peepur like Tiu Kwang Yew and TracyTan866 who think that PAP is in deep shit are as political naive as SDP IBs like Psy83 and NIce Goot....

I am going to sound like GMS of whom I been most vocal in blasting ...WP will have some difficulty in the next ERECTION though not to the same extent that he suggest...

it took 20 yr for Low from taking down Hougang to taking down a GRC .... GRC is not like pull up, once you can do the 1st, you can train yourself to do many ......it is also not like domino, once 1 fall all will fall....

by conservative estimates, It may even take another generation or 20 yr for the next GRC to fall.....

as LKY said, losing a GRC is not the end of the world, you people think that ALjunied can fall mean East COast can fall....

the significance of Aljunied fallin that we now have 6 seats, conservatives daft sinkies may think that 6 is enough .... this make it harder for east coast to fall....

even if WP have 40 seats, the psychological barrier for people to accept a NON PAP govt is still too freat....

I hope all you armchair analysts go out and feel the ground before shooting your big mouth and ending up disappointed 5 yr later and blame heaven and earth

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

What is going to happen next 5 years is hard to predict ?

Every Singaporean is looking for a better life and want to be treat equally.

Any outcome is still a possibility to either side

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

My prediction for 2016:

PAP - Full slate, 1 more GRC loss or stay the same

WP - about 30 to 35 candidates, 1 more GRC won (with no need for NCMPs) or retain the same 6 seats, but with 3 NCMPs

NSP - about 2 to 3 GRCs and 3 SMCs, total 15 to 20 candidates, no seat won

SDP - about 2 GRCs and 2 SMCs, total 10 to 15 candidates, no seat won

SPP - about 1 GRC and 1 SMC or 2 GRCs, around 6 to 10 candidates, no seat or NCMP won

SDA - about 2 SMCs or 1 GRC, total 2 to 5 candidates, no seat won

RP - 1 GRC or may not contest, total up to 5 candidates, no seat won

A new opposition party - 1 GRC, about 5 candidates, no seat won

Walkovers - zero unless some disqualified

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Perspective said:

My prediction for 2016:

PAP - Full slate, 1 more GRC loss or stay the same

WP - about 30 to 35 candidates, 1 more GRC won (with no need for NCMPs) or retain the same 6 seats, but with 3 NCMPs

NSP - about 2 to 3 GRCs and 3 SMCs, total 15 to 20 candidates, no seat won

SDP - about 2 GRCs and 2 SMCs, total 10 to 15 candidates, no seat won

SPP - about 1 GRC and 1 SMC or 2 GRCs, around 6 to 10 candidates, no seat or NCMP won

SDA - about 2 SMCs or 1 GRC, total 2 to 5 candidates, no seat won

RP - 1 GRC or may not contest, total up to 5 candidates, no seat won

A new opposition party - 1 GRC, about 5 candidates, no seat won

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that s about as optimistic a prediction as 1 can get ...... all those celebrating the demise of PAP are either PAP IBs in disguise trying to stir shit or politically naive

brocoli said:

it took 20 yr for Low from taking down Hougang to taking down a GRC .... GRC is not like pull up, once you can do the 1st, you can train yourself to do many ......it is also not like domino, once 1 fall all will fall....

by conservative estimates, It may even take another generation or 20 yr for the next GRC to fall.....

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Politics cannot be measured by history and, least of all, by straight-line history. Why do you think the PM had to make a last minute apology, in most consideration a risky move if not a political suicide, and why do the two most powerful men had to resign and some senior ministers removed? As you said it. The next 5 years can surprise a lot of people.

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Fook Seng said:

Politics cannot be measured by history and, least of all, by straight-line history. Why do you think the PM had to make a last minute apology, in most consideration a risky move if not a political suicide, and why do the two most powerful men had to resign and some senior ministers removed? As you said it. The next 5 years can surprise a lot of people.

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thats why I say even though the momentum is with WP now... 1 shouldnt expect miracles...

WP is still a small party, having problem attaracting and acceptiing activists, as well as well qualified candidates.,...

it s highly secretive and closely knitted group... who make no effort to be a broad based party ....

this pro may turn into a con compare to some TJS anti WP coalition who may be more accepting of other alternative viewpoints ....

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Tan CB win Election but Tony Tan Elected President?

PAP still the winner?

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Crisis for PAP is good for the people. The people have had enough of crisis talk down by PAP for decades already. Karma at work on PAP.

brocoli said:

thats why I say even though the momentum is with WP now... 1 shouldnt expect miracles...

WP is still a small party, having problem attaracting and acceptiing activists, as well as well qualified candidates.,...

it s highly secretive and closely knitted group... who make no effort to be a broad based party ....

this pro may turn into a con compare to some TJS anti WP coalition who may be more accepting of other alternative viewpoints ....

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What is the latest status of TJS anti-WP coalition? By the way why anti-WP? Shouldn't it be anti-PAP?

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Fook Seng said:

What is the latest status of TJS anti-WP coalition? By the way why anti-WP? Shouldn't it be anti-PAP?

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I would think it involved Eric Tan, Leong Sze Hian, Tan Jee Say, SPP and NSP and maybe SDP

and maybe Tan Cheng Bock is involved discreetly.....

not sure about GMS, they may not wan him because he is such a joke

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

brocoli said:

I would think it involved Eric Tan, Leong Sze Hian, Tan Jee Say, SPP and NSP and maybe SDP

and maybe Tan Cheng Bock is involved discreetly.....

not sure about GMS, they may not wan him because he is such a joke

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It's not a straightforward anti-WP and some of your personalities are wrong lorry. I am sure right now, opposition parties do not want to be overwhelmed by WP's stronger bargaining power. At the same time they don't think they cannot catch up with WP and find more to lose by "unity". So you will not see "unity" of that kind.

SPP is hardly bothered, though it has the services of TJS, ET, it is confident. NSP more so, to a lesser extent SDP, but out of their league to worry. TCB isn't bothered by party politics at all, more so with anything that involves TJS whom he is now pissed with. Overall they have common person denominators, but will never be concrete.

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Perspective said:

It's not a straightforward anti-WP and some of your personalities are wrong lorry. I am sure right now, opposition parties do not want to be overwhelmed by WP's stronger bargaining power. At the same time they don't think they cannot catch up with WP and find more to lose by "unity". So you will not see "unity" of that kind.

SPP is hardly bothered, though it has the services of TJS, ET, it is confident. NSP more so, to a lesser extent SDP, but out of their league to worry. TCB isn't bothered by party politics at all, more so with anything that involves TJS whom he is now pissed with. Overall they have common person denominators, but will never be concrete.

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its more of a very loose metwork rather than an alliance now...

SPP is in touch with ET, LSH and TJS, and TJS will definitely try to bring them into the anti WP coalition ..... TCB is in touch with Eric..... NSP will definitely be a key player in the anti WP alliance.... and just remember, TCB is closer to TJS than WP....

because WP is isolated, that was a strength but may also be interprete as a weakness

TCB is a man of integrity, I dun think it is in his character bear grudges like Eric

brocoli said:

its more of a very loose metwork rather than an alliance now...

SPP is in touch with ET, LSH and TJS, and TJS will definitely try to bring them into the anti WP coalition ..... TCB is in touch with Eric..... NSP will definitely be a key player in the anti WP alliance.... and just remember, TCB is closer to TJS than WP....

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I agree with Perspective regarding TCB and TJS. TCB must be fairly cheesed off with what TJS had done to him through Dr W. It is not so much grudge or no grudge, more of like or don't like a person or his character. Meeting with ET doesn't mean anything. Just as WP partnered PAP in a football game, so has TCB played a round of golf with GCT after PE 2011. It means nothing. They do it all the time at that level. Also feel TCB meant what he said (he is for national reconciliation) so unlikely to join an opposition alliance as such. If there is a PAP breakaway group maybe. But chances not high.

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Fook Seng said:

I agree with Perspective regarding TCB and TJS. TCB must be fairly cheesed off with what TJS had done to him through Dr W. It is not so much grudge or no grudge, more of like or don't like a person or his character. Meeting with ET doesn't mean anything. Just as WP partnered PAP in a football game, so has TCB played a round of golf with GCT after PE 2011. It means nothing. They do it all the time at that level. Also feel TCB meant what he said (he is for national reconciliation) so unlikely to join an opposition alliance as such. If there is a PAP breakaway group maybe. But chances not high.

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The TCB and TJS story isnt over yet.... there is no permanent foe in politics... never say never
let see....

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

I hope all you armchair analysts go out and feel the ground before shooting your big mouth and ending up disappointed 5 yr later and blame heaven and earth


Well, no one would expect that Mubaraks, Gaddafis etc and their political parties that had been in power for decades in Middle Eastern countries would crumble so quickly too. Political analysts will tell you that they are too entrenched and firmly established for any quick changes to take place. We all have witnessed what actually happened that proved how wrong political analysts can be. At the end of the day, it will be people's will that will determine how quickly an incumbent regime ends. If over the next 5 years, S'poreans continue to suffer miserably under PAP rule, the changes can be quite massive and swift. From the way things are going, with the recent increases in property tax and taxi fares as indications of how much more the cost of living is going to be, the people will exercise their choice much more resolutely.

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

brocoli said:

its more of a very loose metwork rather than an alliance now...

SPP is in touch with ET, LSH and TJS, and TJS will definitely try to bring them into the anti WP coalition ..... TCB is in touch with Eric..... NSP will definitely be a key player in the anti WP alliance.... and just remember, TCB is closer to TJS than WP....

because WP is isolated, that was a strength but may also be interprete as a weakness

TCB is a man of integrity, I dun think it is in his character bear grudges like Eric

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The primary aim is not to be anti-WP, but all non-WP opposition politicians know by now that it is a matter of time they are edged out by WP as it slowly reaches the 87-candidate target, and they will count their years if they don't succeed. So one, two GRCs in 2016 is their aim. The weak point is, they won't plan to leave any platform for the future non-WP opposition generations, so I think they are unduly overworried as by the time they (mostly in their 50s, 60s) die, WP would have not yet reach the 87-candidate target. If they are worried about only 2 parties, they will do something concrete. There is nothing much they can do anyway - as I said in a post before, only WP can screw WP. Even PAP cannot.

I also don't think TJS is being selective - he is open to everyone, even WP if it accepts. But you are sure dead wrong that TCB is closer to TJS - it is not even the other way around. He is as distant to both to the extent that you can't measure or it's like measuring the distance between Earth and Kepler. It's not bearing grudges. It's true TCB and TJS were once closer. I can have a friend who betrays me, try to patch up later, I can talk, but not politically trust him again. Eric close to TCB? Don't think so, or not for long. They can never work together.

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

freedalas said:

I hope all you armchair analysts go out and feel the ground before shooting your big mouth and ending up disappointed 5 yr later and blame heaven and earth


Well, no one would expect that Mubaraks, Gaddafis etc and their political parties that had been in power for decades in Middle Eastern countries would crumble so quickly too. Political analysts will tell you that they are too entrenched and firmly established for any quick changes to take place. We all have witnessed what actually happened that proved how wrong political analysts can be. At the end of the day, it will be people's will that will determine how quickly an incumbent regime ends. If over the next 5 years, S'poreans continue to suffer miserably under PAP rule, the changes can be quite massive and swift. From the way things are going, with the recent increases in property tax and taxi fares as indications of how much more the cost of living is going to be, the people will exercise their choice much more resolutely.

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I rather the PAP get caught by complancy than WP.....
the expectation on WP now is like the expectation on Obama in 2008.... impossible to fulfilll

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

Perspective said:

The primary aim is not to be anti-WP, but all non-WP opposition politicians know by now that it is a matter of time they are edged out by WP as it slowly reaches the 87-candidate target, and they will count their years if they don't succeed. So one, two GRCs in 2016 is their aim. The weak point is, they won't plan to leave any platform for the future non-WP opposition generations, so I think they are unduly overworried as by the time they (mostly in their 50s, 60s) die, WP would have not yet reach the 87-candidate target. If they are worried about only 2 parties, they will do something concrete. There is nothing much they can do anyway - as I said in a post before, only WP can screw WP. Even PAP cannot.

I also don't think TJS is being selective - he is open to everyone, even WP if it accepts. But you are sure dead wrong that TCB is closer to TJS - it is not even the other way around. He is as distant to both to the extent that you can't measure or it's like measuring the distance between Earth and Kepler. It's not bearing grudges. It's true TCB and TJS were once closer. I can have a friend who betrays me, try to patch up later, I can talk, but not politically trust him again. Eric close to TCB? Don't think so, or not for long. They can never work together.

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let be honest..... WP will do its own things as always and not get involved in the coalition.....

its not about TJS being selective because he wun have a choice.....

for TCB, if he wan to be the godfather figure to the grand opp coalition, he will be drawn to TJS coalition who accept anybody... like Lee Teng Hui and ah bian....
simply because WP will not accept TCB as some grandfather figure of the Opp...

the anti-WP coalition will form not because they are anti-WP but because they are not in WP....

i suspect SDP will not formally be in not because they are not anti-WP but because they alreeady have their own identity,,,

parties that are personality-based, without strong party brand like NSP and SPP will come together...

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

brocoli said:

I rather the PAP get caught by complancy than WP.....
the expectation on WP now is like the expectation on Obama in 2008.... impossible to fulfilll

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I agree. But at the same time, we must not just standby and let the WP and the opposition parties do all the hard work to capture more GRCs. Nor should we rely on PAP's complacency. The electorate must do its part to educate the people about PAP failed policies. Whenever we are with our colleagues, business associates, relatives or friends etc, we must seized the opportunity to point out to them where the PAP had gone wrong and that the PAP is now only motivated by greed and had totally neglected its social responsibilities. Also, I believe many forummers here are parents or perhaps even grandparents. We therefore owe it to our children and grandchildren to carefully impress upon them if the PAP is allowed to continue with their ways, then their future is doomed. Once they come to this realisation, they will develop a mindset of not accepting whatever the PAP throw to them as S'poreans had one in the past (well, at least 60% of us), they will be much more discerning, and make the right choice. Only then can S'pore be for S'poreans. Only then, the ordinary folks would be taken care of and not FTs and government linked companies get all the benefits. Only then S'pore will be saved. We have to do it.

Re: There is a tendency for observers to focus on the PAP as though it is facing a cr

brocoli said:

that s about as optimistic a prediction as 1 can get ...... all those celebrating the demise of PAP are either PAP IBs in disguise trying to stir shit or politically naive

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Also, to lull people into complacency.