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It is quite hard to gauge the level of support for PAP based on their rallies. This is because of the large number of bused in PA grassroot supporters. The actual number of independent rally goers is probably less than 1,000. This appears less than GE 2011. A much more accurate gauge of support...

It is not certain what will happen on Sep 12 if it becomes confirmed that about 30 seats have been lost. Internally, there will be a lot of difficult questions of whether LHL should continue to be PM. There will be a great deal of suspicion and mistrust among the Ministers and MPs who managed to...

There has been a bit of manpower shortage. Many have left to help out in other GRCs like Tampines, Pasir Ris-Punggol etc.

The PAP appears to be in disarray. Their initial campaign was to focus on WP which was perceived to be the biggest threat. The campaign started with the PAP conceding the WP held SMCs and GRCs. Fengshan was carved out of East Coast GRC to give East Coast a fighting chance. McPherson was taken...

While the PAP cries false tears, CSJ's words have the power of moving many to tears because they talk about daily struggles of most Singaporeans.

No one expected CSJ to catch fire that way that he has. He has become the Nicole Seah of GE2015.

After a slow start, SDP is starting to catch fire. Their team and message have found fertile soil in Holland-Bukit Timah because of the unique demographic characteristics of that GRC. Consequently, the probability that SDP will win Holland-Bukit Timah is now > 50%. On Lina Chiam, there is some...

These are demographic strongholds created to protect the two PAP "immortals" who must survive at all cost. As long as the EBC reports to the PM, it is impossible to win there. Uncle Goh did a similar thing when he was PM, drawing up the Marine Parade GRC boundaries to give the impression that...

The national drift because of P65 demographic change is 3% to 5%. WP's rally numbers suggest that they will be able to convert an additional 3% to 5%. Recall that in the Punggol East BE, WP managed a 13% vote swing to win in a 4 corner fight. A predicted WP vote swing of 8% to 10% is therefore...

WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%. With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament. The other parties have yet to catch...

Re: Final Poll before GE2015 WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%. With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament. The...

Over the past 2 years, the PAP has made numerous attempts at grassroots engagement. Since LSS took over, the response has been very poor. Even for "popular" events like block party, the number of grassroots "leaders" usually exceed the number of residents attending. Of late, there has even been...

Final Poll before GE2015 Blackbox Research has published their final poll before GE2015. Conducted in July 2015, this is the last poll that is legally allowed. http://www.blackbox.com.sg/wp_new/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/YKA-July-2015.pdf The MSM has been intentionally mis-interpreting...

Based on the way the boundaries have been redrawn, Marine Parade will most likely be lost to WP. The PAP will however retain McPherson. This will remove an irritant (GCT) and neutralize a potential rival (TCJ) to who has been selected as the 4th Prime Minister of Singapore. Blood, even if it is...

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC This will be true if there is no gerrymandering. The purpose of gerrymandering is to keep the expected vote percentage above 60%. Te 60% mark is critical his is because of statistical sampling error. If you group constituencies so that the expected...

Re: my prediction PAP loses 3 GRCs and 4 SMC The PAP share of the popular vote will be between 53% to 58%. The Opposition will win 26 to 32 seats for the upcoming GE.

No cash give away = No election.

Re: Martyn See: I don't see any public bereavement for LKY Because of our FT policy, the likely leaders who will attend his funeral are: 1) Indian Prime Minister Modhi 2) Philippine President Aquino We have a very large FT China population. I do not however think President Xi will show up...

Whoever is running the coverage should do a reality check. The coverage is bordering on the ridiculous. At this point in time, no world leaders have indicated that they will be attending the funeral. In spite of this, they are spinning it as if the entire world is mourning his death. Even more...

The PAP have unintentionally turned his death into a referendum of his life. They have declared a week of national mourning and have used every resource of state to proclaim his greatness. The outcome so far has not been encouraging. In general Singaporeans are respectful and look poorly...