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There is interesting work on "coalitions" and bargaining. No time for details now. Game Theory is quite divorced from the kind of Quant work done in finance in fact, a lot of quants don't really know much game theory (shocking isn't it) In the quant trading world, new is the only name in...

Which makes my point that the govt has more than enough money to help Singaporeans. It just lacks the political WILL to spend more on helping. What KJ didn't say (and people should know): 1. The USA can't pledge to the IMF this time round because Congress in a political gridlock and the...

That's why markets are efficient conditional on the current information set, search technologies etc... I see that you're read up on Granger and timmermann

Nobody missed the big picture, The mechanism that allows the govt to make transnational pledges with our money is a subset of the same mechanism that allows them to shove our reserves into that black hole. Problem was that you kept needing a bigger wheelbarrow! Then you got to join the other...

That's true, Bailing out corrupt dictators, business cronies etc.. How do we know about these unsaintly behaviour? Because a free press and some form of Parliamentary oversight usually manages to bring all that shit to the surface and take political leaders to task. That accountability is...

To clarify, The normal quota contributions also bear risk a. The risk of a complete IMF bankruptcy b. The risk of burden sharing because the quotas are considered "general resources" ie. risks to be shared across the membership Not quite right, a. The IMF has a near perfect collection...

You missed the entire point of the eg. Okay again, 1. It was an eg. of the kind of poor nation that becomes a candidate for debt relief ie. one who has behaved well and tried to pay debts owed 2. The eg. also reflected the reality that the poor nation probably already paid back most of the...

Game theoretic models are appropriate in this context compared to typical statistical/econometric stuff that depends too much on data. Political economy can be modelled very nicely using game theory and the euro crisis is a political one. What's more interesting are the new Behavioural Models...

KJ is barking up the wrong tree with allegations of "ultra vires" But his intentions are good KJ doesn't know much law but he certainly knows enough economics

The IMF will be as safe as it's members collectively choose If the membership wants a Fund that plays high stakes poker with their money, then it's up to them! That's why it's called a cooperative! If it's unsafe, the members would quit right???? I already stated that a loss is a loss, like a...

The IMF (like other cooperatives) earns income (from investments, interest & charges collected, occasional gold sales etc.). This is used to fund it's operations (not make loans). It main source of funds for granting loans is the pool of quota contributions from 188 members. Your analogy of...

1/2 billion would be too embarrassing for the PAP when the Philippines can pledge 1 billion

I didn't express optimism. I did merely state the facts ie. Europe has the resources to solve this problem if they agree to work for the collective good and stop blaming each other. I am in fact not that optimistic that good sense will overcome bad politics in time Therefore, I do fully...

Interest payments totalling 31.5 was collected Interest totalling 13.5 (3*4.5) was forgiven Principal Payments of 70 collected Principal of 30 forgiven That's how the accounts are booked, not the way you're implying The IMF collects interests (& service charges) on the loans it gives out (works...

Actually, your description fits the real experience of being a debtor to the IMF! No wonder these guys try their best to pay off the IMF ASAP

The USA unlike Singapore, actually has to get Congressional approval to make that pledge If you're been following the political gridlock in the US Congress, you'll understand why the USA is pledging zero

The Europeans have the resources but lack the political will to save the collective. We have reached the stage where the Europeans might act too late and infect everyone. So, we set up an emergency arrangement (that's why pledges and not immediate contributions) just in case we need to contain...

Well, politics is not very different from a circus isn't it?

Yes, there is a popular (Particularly among US Republicans) view that we should just sit back and let the market adjust itself If you borrow too much, you should suffer the effects of deleveraging If you lend to risky borrowers (for high yield) then you should take the loss when they default...

That's the main point isn't it who gets to decide the token not all this talk about risks etc