One man's view of what the future holds....

Government:
• Elon hasn’t been back to DC since May, “The Government is basically unfixable.”
• “If AI & Robots don’t solve the National Debt, we’re toast.”

Optimus:
• Tesla is finalizing the design of Optimus Gen 3. “It’s going to be a very remarkable robot.”
• Optimus Gen 3 will have the manual dexterity of a human.
• Optimus Gen 3 will have an AI mind that can navigate, and comprehend reality.
• There is no supply chain for humanoid robots, Tesla is making everything from scratch. It requires a lot of vertical integration.
• All of Optimus’ actuators are made in-house by Tesla. There are 26 actuators, per arm.
• Elon reiterates: “If Optimus is successful, it will be the biggest product, ever.”
• Production Cost of Optimus, once 1M units/year are achieved is around the $20,000 range.
• The AI chip for Optimus will be expensive, potentially $5-6K , maybe more.
• Price of Optimus will be a function of demand.
• Tesla had to design Optimus’ every electric motor, gearbox, and the controlling electronics from scratch.
• Creating Optimus is harder than making Model S/3/X/Y/CT, but not harder than Starship.
• The forearms and hands of Optimus are majoirty of engineering difficulties of the entire robot.
• Optimus LLM will be included, no added subscription.

AI4, AI5, AI6 & FSD:
• Tesla is currently finalizing the design for AI5. It will be an immense jump from AI4.
• AI5 will be 40x better than AI4 in some metrics.
• Tesla is working so closely on the AI Hardware, and Software this time around. Both teams are co-designing the chip.
• AI5 has 8x more commute than AI4.
• AI5 has 10x more memory than AI4.
• AI5 has 5x more memory-bandwidth than AI4.
• Elon is confident AI4 chips will still be able to achieve self-driving safety that is at least 2-3x of a human, maybe even 10x.
• FSD 14 will be released in a few months.
• V14 will be the biggest upgrade to Tesla’s software since V12.
• FSD 14 will make the car feel sentient, by the end of the year.

Starlink:
• New spectrum deal will allow SpaceX to deliver high-bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites, to the phone.
• Current frequencies aren’t supported in current phones. Hardware changes are needed.
• Chipsets need to be modified to add the new frequencies.
• The phones capable of using this new frequency will ship in two years.
• You will be able to watch videos anywhere in the world.
• These frequencies required will work inside a building, it won’t cut off.
• You will be able to have a Starlink Account instead of a Verizon/At&T account, but it won’t put other carriers out of business.
• SpaceX may buy carriers to gain more spectrum. “It’s not out the question, it may happen.”

Starship:
• SpaceX will recover Starship starting next year.
• There is only one V2 Starship left.
• V3 is a radical re-design, initially it might go through some teething pains.
• V3 is capable of over 100T to orbit, fully reusable.
• Starting in 2026, SpaceX will demonstrate fully reusability next year, catching both booster and ship.
• Elon thinks a self-sustaining life on Mars can be achieved within roughly 25 years.

AI:
• A rough rule of thumb is 10x more compute will double the intelligence.
• Elon thinks we will continue to see intelligence scale all the way up to where most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute.
• Human Intelligence is currently plateauing due to low birth-rates and population declines. It will eventually start declining.
• Elon guesses AI will be smarter than absolutely everything starting next year.
• By 2030, Elon guesses AI will be smarter than the sum of ALL humans.

Whatever that they are doing CCP will lay their hands and copy it at fraction of cost.

Optimus will take Over ceca jobs. Its not fair

Update:

Elon Musk’s Warning: “They don’t understand what’s coming, but they will”​

the earth will be a darker planet by 2069.