Luxor Cafe Jockey Joao Moreira looks to deliver first Kentucky Derby ( Sat 3 May 2025 ) victory to Japan

https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...oao-moreira-japan-admire-daytona/83340849007/



They call him the “Magic Man,” a reference to Joao Moreira’s early days as a jockey in Singapore when he didn’t always get rides on the best horses.

Moreira credits Singapore track announcer Craig Evans with giving him the nickname.

“When I first got there, I wasn’t given the best opportunities,” Moreira recalled Tuesday morning from the backside at Churchill Downs. “I was still able to get good results from horses who were not in good form.

“One day (Evans) said, ‘This kid is doing magic with those horses who don’t have form.’ From there on he started calling me the ‘Magic Man.’ That, obviously, helped me out, I guess. I’m very proud of such a nickname he gave me.”

Moreira, a 41-year-old from Brazil, has enjoyed a strong career while riding in Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Brazil and will get the chance of a lifetime Saturday when he makes his Kentucky Derby debut aboard Luxor Café.

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“It’s like a dream coming true,” Moreira said.

Moreira was in the irons Tuesday morning when Luxor Café completed his final pre-Kentucky Derby breeze, going five furlongs in 1:02.40.

Luxor Café — 15-1 in the morning line — will enter the Kentucky Derby off a five-length victory in Japan’s Fukuryu Stakes on March 29. Luxor Café arrived in Chicago on April 21 and went through a 42-hour quarantine before making it to Churchill Downs on April 23.

“The traveling obviously did take a little bit out of him, but he’s doing so well, eating everything,” Moreira said. “He just seems to be very happy, as I am.”

Moreira’s “Magic Man” nickname has been boosted by several big moments over his career, including eight-victory days on three separate occasions.

He rode briefly at Churchill Downs in 2013, winning a maiden special weight with the Wesley Ward-trained Princess Millie. And after the Kentucky Derby, he’ll head straight to Brazil to ride in Sunday’s Group 1 Grande Premio Sao Paulo.

Kate Hunter, Churchill Downs’ Asia representative, likes Moreira’s chances, here and abroad.

“If you look at his results in Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, back home in Brazil, it kind of speaks for itself and his abilities,” Hunter said. “Everyone is always worried you’re not going to be able to do well in your first Derby, but if there’s anyone who’s going to be able to pull it out of the hat, it would be ‘Magic Man.’”

A son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Luxor Café was bred in Kentucky before being sold to Koichi Nishikawa. All six of Luxor Café’s races have come in Japan, where he’s accumulated a 4-1-0 record and won four straight starts.

Moreira rode Luxor Café for the first time in the Fukuryu Stakes.

“I thought he was going to win, but he kind of won so much more impressively than I thought,” Moreira said. “Obviously, the field wasn’t as strong as the race he’ll be running on Saturday. But he’s done what a good horse does.”

Luxor Café is one of two hopefuls for Japan, joining Japan-bred Admire Daytona. He also breezed five furlongs in 1:02.40 on Tuesday.

Admire Daytona has been defeated twice by Luxor Café in Japan.

“His strong point is he doesn’t have to have a position,” Admire Daytona trainer Yukihiro Kato said. “He can race from any position. Sometimes he might lose a little bit of attention along the way.”

Luxor Café and Admire Daytona represent Japan’s latest attempts to capture the Kentucky Derby.

Lani, a Kentucky-bred purchased by Japan’s Yoko Maeda, got the ball rolling in 2016, finishing ninth in the Kentucky Derby. Master Fencer became the first Japan-bred in the Kentucky Derby in 2019, finishing sixth.

Forever Young nearly got Japan its first Kentucky Derby victory last year, finishing third in a photo finish.

Hunter said Japan’s Triple Crown nominees totaled 70 this year, up from less than 50 in 2024.

“Last year was so close,” Hunter said. “But I think that ‘so close’ … really did invigorate the horseman population to try to make it over here.”

One of the things I love about the fair odds exercise is it eliminates the need to say "so and so has no shot." Every horse has some shot, it's just that for some horses, their shot is never going to be worth a bet.

So it goes in the Kentucky Derby, which routinely features 20 horses with a favorite typically no less than 2-1 and long shots rarely beyond the 50-1 range. Funny enough, the two longest shots in the race over the last ten years, Instilled Regard in 2018 and Rich Strike in 2022, both hit the superfecta. The former finished fourth to Justify. The latter won.

I do not expect any horse this year to be 80-1 as those two were. That means several underlays on the less likely end with me giving Owen Almighty, Flying Mohawk and Neoequos the least likely chances of winning.

The biggest underlay, though, is likely to be Sandman, who I give a 14-1 chance to but whose odds will be anywhere from 5-1 to 8-1. Obviously I'd love to be 14-1 to win the Derby. Heck, I'd love to be 100-1 to win the Derby. But from a wagering standpoint I just think his celebrity off a perfect trip last prep is being overbought by the public. Ditto for the horses behind him that day, maiden Publisher and feel-good story Coal Battle.

The best value looks to be in that second tier of wagering with, but not including, Sandman. Sovereignty and Rodriguez both have fair odds less than my projected off odds, which makes them key plays.

One thing important to keep in mind is these are odds related to the horse winning the race, not running well enough to be a part of exotic wagers. Chunk of Gold as a for instance may be overbet in the win pool, but is a key player for me to crash the trifecta party at the expense of shorter-priced horses.

The post position draw is Saturday night at Churchill Downs, and that will be the final piece of the puzzle, assuming that no scratches happen. Render Judgment is No. 21 and would be the first horse in with a scratch. At the time the above graphic was made there were plans not to enter, though owners reportedly changed their mind. The fair odds and projected morning-line odds are only based on the 20 expected in the gate, though.