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Chitchat What happened in Saudi Arabia in the last 3 days ?

JohnTan

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
The two countries will not go to war because they both do not have a common land border. From their military stats, both do not have any navy that allows them to project power across the seas. I doubt their armies have sufficient logistical support to fight across long distances from their borders. If fighting breaks out, it would be a war of proxies in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran will arm hezbollah and other shia groups, while Saudis will continue to fund and arm any kind of sunni terror groups, including the likes of isis and al qaeda.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
The discussion has been around fulls scale eruption of a proxy war. USSR and the Western bloc never went to war. But it is the longest running conflict for the last 3 generations with their respective proxies in play.

The immediate threat is Syria keeling over to the other side due to the vacuum and the removal of a major buffer. If it has to be played out to contain Syria the battlefield has to be Lebanon. You can't start one with your ally as the PM. Note the Saudis are not even talking about replacement, negotiation, discussion over the resignation of the PM. All the players would prefer a battlefield far removed and Lebanon is ideal. The Lebanese power demographics and convenient coalition power arrangement to hold the peace is only good for them but bad for everyone else.

The Lebanese know this and partner with locals in Gulf states to run businesses in Gulf states while many have families back home.

The real discussion amongst the Saudi faction is who steps into Lebanon first - the Israelis or others. The Israelis are never going to be second best in any argument. If they have to they will do a surgical strike in the heart of Iran and drag in the Americans followed by the UN and the West to secure a new position in negotiation. Something the Saudi's will welcome as in Osirak in 1981.But that option is less certain as sanction removing agreement with the West is closer of the nuclear power weapons capability and therefore a ready excuse for the Israelis removed. They will have to find another. The Iranians know this well and keeping their nose clean back in their own soil.

The two countries will not go to war because they both do not have a common land border. From their military stats, both do not have any navy that allows them to project power across the seas. I doubt their armies have sufficient logistical support to fight across long distances from their borders. If fighting breaks out, it would be a war of proxies in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran will arm hezbollah and other shia groups, while Saudis will continue to fund and arm any kind of sunni terror groups, including the likes of isis and al qaeda.
 

gatehousethetinkertailor

Alfrescian
Loyal
Screen Shot 2017-11-18 at 9.47.39 PM.png
Screen Shot 2017-11-18 at 9.47.49 PM.png
 

gatehousethetinkertailor

Alfrescian
Loyal
The discussion has been around fulls scale eruption of a proxy war. USSR and the Western bloc never went to war. But it is the longest running conflict for the last 3 generations with their respective proxies in play.

The immediate threat is Syria keeling over to the other side due to the vacuum and the removal of a major buffer. If it has to be played out to contain Syria the battlefield has to be Lebanon. You can't start one with your ally as the PM. Note the Saudis are not even talking about replacement, negotiation, discussion over the resignation of the PM. All the players would prefer a battlefield far removed and Lebanon is ideal. The Lebanese power demographics and convenient coalition power arrangement to hold the peace is only good for them but bad for everyone else.

The Lebanese know this and partner with locals in Gulf states to run businesses in Gulf states while many have families back home.

The real discussion amongst the Saudi faction is who steps into Lebanon first - the Israelis or others. The Israelis are never going to be second best in any argument. If they have to they will do a surgical strike in the heart of Iran and drag in the Americans followed by the UN and the West to secure a new position in negotiation. Something the Saudi's will welcome as in Osirak in 1981.But that option is less certain as sanction removing agreement with the West is closer of the nuclear power weapons capability and therefore a ready excuse for the Israelis removed. They will have to find another. The Iranians know this well and keeping their nose clean back in their own soil.

Actually Syria is already lost to the Gulf countries - all of them rallied to remove Assad - the same people who embraced them and invited them ito their homes turned on the Assads once they started arming the "people" - it was no secret and Assad is not going to be easily bought - they destroyed one of the jewels (in terms of civilisation) of that area for their own political aims - principally the Saudis and the Qataris - what they did not expect was the intervention of Russia. The Iranians had already declared that they would not allow Damascus to fall and once the Russians got involved it helped the Assad regime hold its ground and push back. So IS and all the fanatical groups were funded and armed by the elements who are now braying for Iran to fall. The Turks were also complicit in turning against the Syrians but the rise of the Peshmerga set alarm bells ringing and suddenly they pull back in their support against Assad. It was common knowledge that the entry point for jihadist into Syria was Turkey and they turned a blind eye.

All of these players will ultimately reap what they sow eventually and as long as they cower behind the protection of the Americans they felt emboldened. But the Obama administration did not back their scheme to push back that Shia crescent - in reality they led to the Iranians gaining a much larger foothold that they previously had. Assad is now entangled with both the Russians and the Iranians.

As for a replacement for Lebanon, Saad Hariri's brother has apparently been touted as a replacement so the Saudis do have someone in mind. Only problem is nobody in Lebanon knows him (as the saying goes):

Screen Shot 2017-11-18 at 9.56.11 PM.png
Screen Shot 2017-11-18 at 9.56.19 PM.png
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
I met a young expat who returned after 2 years in Riyadh. He said that after Salman came to power lots of changes within the country. The unemployment rate of locals were hovering around 12% and their youth were angry that they cannot get jobs as employer prefer to bring in cheaper workers from overseas. The following are comments that he made
  • they are very tight on working visas - supermarket and retails store cashier positions are now been filled by locals
  • you cannot terminate locals in a mass retrenchment exercise without submitting plans to the authorities and seeking approval. The submission must have financials backing the recommendations.
  • certain sectors such as Telcos are facing difficulty filling workers from overseas as they are under a special category for locals to take over. The Govt has started fast paced telco training for locals which includes maintenance of phone sets etc.
  • They have increased fees for visas especially dependent visas etc
He said that it is increasing bad for foreigners and the message is clear because of so many changes and this was way before the political crisis with other countries.

Besides lower oil price, not sure what is the agenda in all these.
 

gatehousethetinkertailor

Alfrescian
Loyal
I met a young expat who returned after 2 years in Riyadh. He said that after Salman came to power lots of changes within the country. The unemployment rate of locals were hovering around 12% and their youth were angry that they cannot get jobs as employer prefer to bring in cheaper workers from overseas. The following are comments that he made
  • they are very tight on working visas - supermarket and retails store cashier positions are now been filled by locals
  • you cannot terminate locals in a mass retrenchment exercise without submitting plans to the authorities and seeking approval. The submission must have financials backing the recommendations.
  • certain sectors such as Telcos are facing difficulty filling workers from overseas as they are under a special category for locals to take over. The Govt has started fast paced telco training for locals which includes maintenance of phone sets etc.
  • They have increased fees for visas especially dependent visas etc
He said that it is increasing bad for foreigners and the message is clear because of so many changes and this was way before the political crisis with other countries.

Besides lower oil price, not sure what is the agenda in all these.

All of the above are not new or unknown in the GCC - only the UAE seems to be abit more flexible but they have the same approach - nationals must be at the core.

The issue is whether you have capable, knowledgeable and qualified staff. Therein lies the issue. If a country wants to look outwards there is a degree of international exposure that is necessary which unfortunately is quite hard to cultivate as most GCC nationals will not really travel abroad and find a job because the system favours them remaining as little local princes in their own country. KSA is unique in that sense because it has the largest territory and population amongst the Khalijis. So they have a greater challenge in appeasing their nationals and the tribal affiliations. Also in terms of jobs there is a social stigma that needs to be overcome. Omanis moonlight as cab drivers without any qualms but you will never find even the poorest Kuwaiti or Qatari doing that. Maybe as a bank teller (because working in a bank is more respectable) but not as a checkout girl. Bahrainis despite being in KSA's orbit have actually ventured into working as cabin crew for their local airline. So there are variations and permutations all around.
 

scroobal

Alfrescian
Loyal
Truly a complex set of dynamics and the lack of prior knowledge on my part for that part of the World makes it even tougher.

This expat also told me that visa/migrant situation has led to the many parts of the economy that support the migrant workers folding. Barbershops, eateries, small convenient stores are empty in various neighbourhoods. I asked him if it was construction workers and he told me workers in the service sector. The construction sector apparent collapsed quite a while ago.

If the Saudis are preparing to accept ghost towns emerging like this, it shows internal situation within themselves is dire. It does explain the frequent reports about crackdown on foreign workers partly to their locals they are acting on it.





All of the above are not new or unknown in the GCC - only the UAE seems to be abit more flexible but they have the same approach - nationals must be at the core.

The issue is whether you have capable, knowledgeable and qualified staff. Therein lies the issue. If a country wants to look outwards there is a degree of international exposure that is necessary which unfortunately is quite hard to cultivate as most GCC nationals will not really travel abroad and find a job because the system favours them remaining as little local princes in their own country. KSA is unique in that sense because it has the largest territory and population amongst the Khalijis. So they have a greater challenge in appeasing their nationals and the tribal affiliations. Also in terms of jobs there is a social stigma that needs to be overcome. Omanis moonlight as cab drivers without any qualms but you will never find even the poorest Kuwaiti or Qatari doing that. Maybe as a bank teller (because working in a bank is more respectable) but not as a checkout girl. Bahrainis despite being in KSA's orbit have actually ventured into working as cabin crew for their local airline. So there are variations and permutations all around.
 
What is happening in Golden-Escalator-land is just Arab Version of 玄武门之变 in Chinese history:




http://www.qulishi.com/huati/xuanwumzb

玄武门之变真相:李世民亲手弑兄真是被迫?
  作为唐朝的第二任皇帝,唐太宗在“权”的方面,主要面临的任务有两个:一是得到皇位,拥有至高无上的权力;二是开拓疆土,成为全天下的君主。对于内部的争权者,杀之,无话可说;对于外部的争权者,盟之,不服则打。但在整个用“权”的过程中,均采用了恩威并重的方法。

  ·玄武门之变

  众所周知,历朝历代皇位斗争都是最激烈、最残酷的,特别是在嫡长子或者皇太子实力不济之时。唐太宗李世民排行第二,恰好也有这么一个大哥,是其皇位的最强竞争者。而其父亲唐高祖李渊呢,又是一个特别保守的人,一直认为嫡长子应该继承自己的位置。

  李世民是个很有心计的人,他知道嫡长子的位置是没法争了,但可以另辟蹊径,从能力、业绩、威望等方面全面超越。于是,李世民私下里学习刻苦,注意自身修为,而且还广交朋友,培植自己的势力。另外,他牢牢掌握了军权,善待手下将领和士兵,对老百姓也很好,在军队和百姓中有很高的威望。特别是在唐朝定国后,为稳定局势而进行的六次大规模的征讨活动中,李世民起到了巨大的作用。如果把六次战争的胜利比作足球场上的六个进球,那么,李世民一个人就完成了四个进球,另外还助攻两次。最重要的是,他在最关键的决赛(唐军VS王世充窦建德联军)当中,打入了制胜一球。在这一仗之后,李世民的威望和势力达到了极致。据说,他回到长安时,受到军民以及皇帝的礼仪招待。

  这种情况,让大哥李建成很是担心。当然,李建成也不是省油的灯,他这些年更注重把持朝政,而且和一些权臣搞好关系。另外,他给四弟李元吉很多许诺,二人关系很好。关键时刻,确保这个弟弟站在自己这边。基本上,宫里宫外都是李建成的人。之前,李建成考虑到李世民在领军打仗方面的作用,一直隐忍其实力的发展。但现如今,天下基本太平,该解决内部矛盾了。于是,他向老爸李渊建议由四弟李元吉做统帅出征突厥,借此要夺取李世民的军权。

201311616329409.jpg


  李世民虽然连年在外打仗,但并不是对朝内情况一无所知。其实,他早在李建成周围安排了很多“卧底”,对李建成的一举一动了如指掌。他没有沉迷于当时的成绩,更觉得有必要解决自己权力路上的障碍。当了解到李建成的最新动态后,李世民决定先发制人。但到底如何处置这个皇太子呢?李世民手下将士们都很有顾虑,这毕竟是“老板”的亲大哥啊!李世民这时表了态:“有什么计策,你们尽管说,由我来决定是否执行。”大多数人的意见是将皇太子及主要同党囚禁起来,不让他们再干预政事。李世民当即反对:“李建成已经鬼迷心窍,囚禁起来不能从根本上解决问题。”众将士都明白了“老板”的意思,提出迫使李建成等进宫,但在途中进行截杀的办法。李世民这才同意,但由谁去负责做这个事情,他都不是很放心。于是,他决定由自己亲自来完成这一任务,并带上了对自己最为忠心耿耿的尉迟恭

  事情的进展依计进行。而李世民最担心的一幕也确实出现了。公元626年7月2日晚,玄武门前,大哥李建成和四弟李元吉在逃跑时,手下将士都不敢下手,包括这个尉迟恭。“不能让大哥跑掉,否则这么多年的苦心经营就全部白费了”,李世民射出了致命的一箭,正中李建成要害,当场毙命。而尉迟恭也立即解冻,射死了李元吉。

  唐高祖李渊知道此事后,震怒!但也没有任何办法,眼下只有这么一个儿子了,而且兵权还在其手里。因此,不得不立李世民为皇太子。两个月后,自责和无奈中的李渊,将皇位让给了次子李世民。

  点评:李世民亲手弑兄之举,常被后人诟病。一定程度上表明了李世民对权力的向往。夺权路上,无论谁来阻挡,都将被除去。但李世民并没有大面积捕杀“太子党”,反而重用了很多能臣,最有名的就是魏徵。 ...查看更多

玄武门之变真正策划者尉迟恭:力劝李世民
  评书《隋唐演义》是单田芳先生的名作,可谓家喻户晓。作为一部演义小说,《隋唐演义》推崇的是个人英雄主义,三十六友侠肝义胆,十三条好汉武艺高强,瓦岗寨众将替天行道,对武功的细致描写和单田芳先生的倾力表演,使隋唐英雄们深入人心。近来,此类电视剧越来越多,前有《隋唐英雄传》,中有《隋唐英雄》,后有《隋唐演义》(据说有单田芳先生投资),一时再度掀起隋唐热。那么,这些英雄真有其人吗?他们真实的经历是怎样的呢?

  隋末唐初是一个风云际会的年代,隋失其鹿,天下共逐之。如同秦末、汉末一样,时势造英雄,乱世正是英雄辈出的年代,大家各为其主,为了一个共同的梦想——统一天下。

  程咬金——记载不多的规矩武将

  “半路杀出个程咬金”使程咬金留名千古。程咬金是《隋唐演义》里最有特色的人物,武功平平,凭三板斧子打天下,脸皮厚,歪点子多,总能逢凶化吉,遇难呈祥,堪称福将。

  也许有些观众会认为,程咬金这样一个人物是小说家虚构的。但还真不是,而且他就叫程咬金,不过这个名字显然太俗,后更名为程知节。《旧唐书》有他的本传,载:“程知节,本名咬金”。他的兵器也不是大斧,“少骁勇,善用马槊”。

  程咬金的经历倒是与演义有些相像,但他可没当过什么“混世魔王”。他先投靠李密,李密手下有八千勇士,分为四队,程咬金领一队。先是打败了王世充,待李密失败后又投靠了王世充。但他看出王世充并非人主,于是与秦琼一起投奔大唐。此后为大唐南征北讨,东挡西杀,以功封宿国公(演义中是鲁国公)。后被李渊猜忌,在著名的玄武门之变中,程咬金也参与其中。李世民登基后,不断升迁。麟德二年(公元665年)去世,赠骠骑大将军、益州大都督,陪葬昭陵。是凌烟阁二十四功臣之一。

  可见,正史中的程咬金没那么“二”,是一个规规矩矩的武将,记载也不多,总体上武艺高强,有勇有谋。也许小说家需要这么一个人物,正好在《旧唐书》里他与秦琼、尉迟恭同传,因此就选他了,把普通的武将程知节塑造成个性鲜明的程咬金了。

2013426141716622.jpg


李世民

  秦叔宝——武功比演义中描写得还高

  秦琼秦叔宝,《隋唐演义》的重要人物,十三条好汉第十三位(第十三位是由两个人组成的,上半截秦琼,下半截尉迟恭),跨下黄骠马,手使一对熟铜双锏。秦叔宝之所以能成为重要人物,不单看武功,更要看人品。

  秦琼是《隋唐演义》中人品最好的(没有之一),孝母似专诸,交友赛孟尝,黑白两道都有朋友,简直就是那个时代的宋江

  《旧唐书》载,隋文帝时,秦琼在隋朝大将来护儿(演义中四猛之一)手下。秦琼丧母,来护儿遣使吊唁。士卒问来护儿为什么其他人的丧事不吊唁,独吊唁秦琼?来护儿说:“此人勇悍,加有志节,必当自取富贵,岂得以卑贱处之?”后来正如来护儿所言。

  隋末农民大起义,秦琼跟随隋将张须陀。张须陀一万人被十万敌军包围,秦琼主动请战,与罗士信(演义中第一猛将,傻小子,秦琼干弟弟)率千人袭击敌军大营,敌酋仅以数百骑逃窜。秦琼一战成名,“由是勇气闻于远近。”

  后来他与程咬金的经历差不多,先投靠李密,后投靠王世充,最后投奔大唐。李世民对其厚加礼遇,拜为马军总管,“功最居多”。 ...查看更多

玄武门之变内幕:李世民好色看上弟媳妇杨氏?
  导读玄武门之变是唐高祖武德九年六月初四(公元626年7月2日)由当时的天策上将、唐高祖李渊的次子秦王李世民在唐王朝的首都长安城(今陕西省西安市)大内皇宫的北宫门——玄武门附近发动的一次流血政变。

  史书上严正声明说,大唐太宗李世民,和他的兄弟媳妇杨氏之间:未及以乱,啥意思呢?

  意思是说,李世民是个正经人,没有和自己的亲弟弟李元吉的媳妇杨氏上过床,好端端的,突然声明这事干啥?

  因为李世民真的和杨氏上过,这事太龌龊,还是阳光点说吧。阳光点就是,当李世民讨平窦建德,回师之后,惊发现隋炀帝杨广的妹妹已经被弟弟李元吉娶走,李世民不移不饶,大吵大闹,一口咬定哥哥李建成,弟弟李元吉和父亲的宠妃张氏有一手。之所以他敢这么瞎嘞嘞,是因为他觊觎兄弟媳妇杨氏的事情被李元吉发现,李元吉很是愤怒,所以李世民这边也豁出去了。

  吵闹之际,太子李建成和齐王李元吉心里郁闷,不知道该拿家里的老二怎么办,两人就一边商量一边去上朝,刚刚行至玄武门,突听一声吼叫,就见老二李世民率领家将尉迟敬德,手持凶器,气势汹汹的杀了过来,李建成和李元吉呆了一呆,眼见老二李世民满脸杀气,不象是开玩笑的样子,两人惊心之下,掉头便走。

2013116163033912.jpg


  杀啊!李世民一马当先,气势汹汹的追赶而来,后面跟着黑面煞神般的马仔尉迟敬德。太子李建成吓得呆了,在前面拼命的跑,不提防脚下一拌,吧唧一声,摔了个大马趴,还等爬起来,就听马仔尉迟敬德一声疯吼:砍啊,不砍白不砍,砍了也白砍……噗哧一刀,可怜的太子李建成,已经莫名其妙的身首异处。

  老三李元吉到底年轻,反应机敏,眼见得二哥是真的翻了脸皮,不由分说,掉转马头,策马狂逃。二哥李世民随后狂追,一边追还一边喊:老三,你别跑,你听我跟你解释,二哥我也没别的意思,只要你把你媳妇让给我……砰,哎哟哟哟我的娘亲……原来李世民只顾两眼血红的盯着三弟,却没有注意到路边斜伸过来一根树杈,他的马速又太快,脑壳正好撞在树杈上,痛叫一声,栽下马去。

  老三李元吉掉马返回,用弓弦一下子勒住二哥的脖子,怒骂道:操你娘,有你这么当哥哥的吗?跟大哥争皇位,抢弟弟的媳妇,还学了黑社会拿刀子砍人,你说你爹妈是咋教育的你呢……怒骂声中,就见李世民一张脸由白转红,由红转紫,由紫转黑,眼看就要一命呜呼。

  危急时刻,就听一声怪叫:天马流星捶……砰的一声,原来是李世民的大马仔尉迟敬德一头撞了过来,将李元吉撞得形如断线风筝,飞上了半空,未等他的身体落下,尉迟敬德轮起大片刀,刷刷刷一通乱砍,只听李元吉发出几声微弱的惨嘶,已然是没了性命。

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玄武门之变的真实历史:李世民埋伏了多少人?
  众所周知,《旧唐书》记“玄武门之变”,甚多隐讳。但到底隐讳了哪些事实,却不明究竟。对此千年疑案,史学界泰斗陈寅恪先生首破坚冰,对李世民收买北门将领以制胜予以发明。继有台湾师大李树桐先生对世民挟持高祖以握胜券进行揭露,还有日本布目潮氵风先生提出了伏兵二十人之说。本文将在三位前辈的研究基础上,对“玄武门之变”当日伏兵地点和人数予以考辨。

  “玄武门之变”当日史事,依据新旧《唐书》诸纪传,《资治通鉴》卷一百九十一综述如下:(高祖武德九年六月)庚申,世民帅长孙无忌等入,伏兵于玄武门。张婕妤窃知世民表意,驰语建成。建成召元吉谋之,元吉曰:“宜勒宫府兵,托疾不朝,以观形势。”建成曰:“兵备已严,当与弟入参,自问消息。”乃俱入,趣玄武门。上时已召裴寂、萧王禹、陈叔达等,欲按其事。建成、元吉至临湖殿,觉变,即跋马东归宫府。世民从而呼之,元吉张弓射世民,再三不彀,世民射建成,杀之。尉迟敬德将七十余骑继至,左右射元吉坠马。世民马逸入林下,为木枝所纟圭,坠不能起。元吉遽至,夺弓将扼之,敬德跃马叱之。元吉步欲趣武德殿,敬德追射,杀之。翊卫车骑将军冯翊冯立闻建成死,叹曰:“岂有生受其恩而死逃其难乎!”乃与副护军薛万彻、屈口至直府左车骑万年谢叔方帅东宫、齐府精兵二千驰趣玄武门。张公谨多力,独闭关以拒之,不得入。云麾将军敬君弘掌宿卫兵,屯玄武门,挺身出战,所亲止之曰:“事未可知,且徐观变,俟兵集,成列而战,未晚也。”君弘不从,与中郎将吕世衡大呼而进,皆死之。……守门兵与万彻等力战良久,万彻鼓噪欲攻秦府,将士大惧;尉迟敬德持建成、元吉首示之,宫府兵遂溃。万彻与数十骑亡入终南山。冯立既杀敬君弘,谓其徒曰:“亦足以少报太子矣!”遂解兵,逃于野。上方泛舟海池,世民使尉迟敬德入宿卫,敬德擐甲持矛,直至上所。上大惊,问曰:“今日乱者谁邪?卿来此何为?”对曰:“秦王以太子、齐王作乱,举兵诛之,恐惊动陛下,遣臣宿卫。”上谓裴寂等曰:“不图今日乃见此事,当如之何?”萧王禹、陈叔达曰:“建成、元吉本不预义谋,又无功于天下,疾秦王功高望重,共为奸谋。今秦王已讨而诛?秦王功盖宇宙,率土归心,陛下若处以元良,委之国事,无复事矣!”上曰:“善!此吾之夙心也。”时宿卫及秦府兵与二宫左右战犹未已,敬德请降手敕,令诸军并受秦王处分,上从之。天策府司马宇文士及自东上阁门出宣敕,众然后定。上又使黄门侍郎裴矩至东宫晓谕诸将卒,皆罢散。上乃召世民,抚之曰:“近日以来,几有投杼之惑。”世民跪而吮上乳,号恸久之。以下试对旧史所载进行分析、质疑,以期揭示当日事变之真相。

  一、伏兵不在玄武门

  “玄武门之变”伏兵地点,旧史记载,众口一辞,学界亦从无怀疑、争议,但事实到底如何,以下试据事变当日情况辨析之。

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  (一)六月四日,建成得张妃驰告,召元吉商量后,决定入宫参问。于是兄弟二人同行,自玄武门入宫,“至临湖殿觉变”。临湖殿具体位置史书缺载,只知在玄武门内太极宫中。但若细察史料,亦并非不可考。首先,从殿名看,临湖殿应是太极宫中临湖之殿,所以失载,或因事后被毁,或因改名失记。第二,建成、元吉入宫,是为了打问消息,径投高祖而去,得张妃报信,必然已知高祖所在,当日高祖泛舟湖上,二人前往临湖殿,那么此殿必然临近高祖泛舟之湖;从建成、元吉觉变后“跋马欲东归宫府”和建成死后元吉“步欲趣武德殿”看,此临湖之殿及高祖泛舟之湖均在武德殿之西,亦即高祖泛舟之湖乃玄武门内西边三海池之一而非东边之海池,若为东边海池,应为“南归武德殿”或“北归东宫”;第三,唐之两京宫城,布局大体一致,规格大致相仿,宫殿、城门名称多有相同或相似者。考东都宫城海池之西南有临波阁,推测其位置与名称皆与西京临湖殿相呼应。所以,据此亦可以推断临湖殿之位置是在玄武门内之西。既然建成、元吉自玄武门入宫,在门口并未发现异常,而是到高祖泛舟附近的临湖殿才察觉有变,那么,如果伏兵果在玄武门,为何不在二人至门时径直“拿下”,而要等他们走到临近高祖之所在、在高祖眼皮下群起追杀二人?临湖殿地近高祖所在,诸门诸殿及高祖身边卫士岂能坐视太子、齐王被追杀而袖手旁观、不闻不问?追杀喊叫,高祖岂能不知,怎不制止?建成、元吉觉变,掉头便逃,跋马东归。什么变化,竟然使太子、齐王如此惊恐,甚至世民“从呼”,二人话都不答,只顾逃命,而且元吉还不问青红皂白,张弓即射世民?元吉“素骁勇”,事变日被世民和尉迟敬德一干人群起追杀,被射落马后,尚步走欲归武德殿,且与世民相搏,夺弓欲扼世民,说明此人确实勇猛难当。以他之骁勇,以齐王之地位,宫禁之安全,被二兄一呼,竟然吓得连弓都拉不开,以至“再三不彀”。若非世民杀气十分明显,当时情况十分紧急,元吉何敢如此鲁莽、亦何至如此惊慌?世民既为“从呼”,说明与建成、元吉距离很近,可以一声喊得答应,可证世民当时不在玄武门而在临湖殿伏兵等待建成、元吉。世民久经沙场战阵,身手矫健,反应敏捷,曾多次突入敌营,破围而出。当日是有备而来,以逸待劳,非如元吉猝遇敌惊慌。世民马逸后,被纟圭树枝不起,几被元吉以弓弦勒死。如此不灵便,定因著甲之故;元吉夺弓扼之却不拔剑相斫,亦证世民当日身著铠甲,全副戎装,尉迟敬德也是“擐甲持矛”。如此装束入宫,非反何为?如此装束出现在高祖泛舟湖边临湖殿,建成、元吉怎得不惊慌?

  (二)世民追杀二人之际,尉迟敬德率七十余骑继至,左右射元吉坠马后,元吉步走欲归武德殿,会世民被纟圭,乃夺弓欲扼之,幸敬德赶至,跃马叱之。尉迟敬德紧踵世民之后,来得如此迅速及时,怎可能是临时赶赴?戴上手表都不可能如此准时凑巧。世民追杀建成、元吉已有一段行程,尉迟敬德若从宫外赶至,必循北门、临湖殿路线,然后方至世民追杀、格斗之地,其时间耽误,不会如此及时赶到,更何况敬德等人根本不知建成兄弟到底何时入宫。再者,敬德所率乃七十余骑而非区区数人,胆敢追杀齐王,亦绝非宫中卫士。若是宫中卫士,敬德岂得率领?卫士岂能在高祖眼皮下擅从并追杀太子、齐王?世民要收买如此众多府兵卫士从事此等事关全家性命的谋反大案,亦绝无可能。又,元吉素骁勇,当日袭杀二人,世民定然不敢大意,尉迟敬德曾与元吉比武,三夺其矛肖,在心理上对元吉有很大威慑力。当天如此关键时刻,世民定会使敬德随侍身边以对付元吉,自已得以专意收拾建成。所以,尉迟敬德之及时赶至,乃是世民从呼建成、元吉时,敬德闻声率领部份伏兵紧随世民而来。由此可知,尉次敬德等七十余骑乃是世民所率临湖殿之伏兵。

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玄武门之变简介:玄武门之变发生在哪年?
  玄武门之变是中国唐朝武德九年六月初四庚申日(626年7月2日)由唐高祖李渊次子秦王李世民为首的秦王府集团在唐朝首都长安城(今陕西省西安市)大内皇宫的北宫门——玄武门[1]附近发动的一次流血政变。李世民杀死自己的长兄皇太子李建成和四弟齐王李元吉及二人诸子,成为皇太子并掌握实权,旋于同年八月初九甲子日(9月4日)继承皇帝位,是为唐太宗。

  唐高祖即位以后,封李建成为太子,李世民为秦王,李元吉为齐王。三个人当中,数李世民功劳最大。太原起兵,原是他的主意;在以后几次战斗中,他立的战功也最多。李建成的战功不如李世民,只是因为他是高祖的大儿子,才取得太子的地位。

  李世民不但有勇有谋,而且手下有一批人才。在秦王府中,文的有房玄龄杜如晦等,号称十八学士;武的有尉迟敬德、秦叔宝、程咬金等著名勇将。太子建成自己知道威信比不上李世民,心里妒忌,就和弟弟齐王元吉联合,一起排挤李世民。

  建成、元吉知道唐高祖宠爱一些妃子,就经常在这些宠妃面前拍马送礼,讨她们的欢喜。李世民就没有这样做。李世民平定东都之后,有的妃子私下向李世民索取隋宫里的珍宝,还为她们的亲戚谋官做,都被李世民拒绝了。于是,宠妃们常常在高祖面前说太子的好话,讲秦王的短处。唐高祖听信宠妃的话,跟李世民渐渐疏远起来。

  李世民多次立功,建成和元吉更加忌恨,千方百计想除掉李世民。

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  有一次,建成请李世民到东宫去喝酒。世民喝了几盅,忽然感到肚子痛。别人把他扶回家里,他一阵疼痛,竟呕出血来。李世民心里明白,一定是建成在酒里下了毒,赶快请医服药,总算慢慢好了。

  建成、元吉想害李世民,但是又怕世民手下勇将多,真的动起手来,占不到便宜,就想先把这些勇将收买过来。

  建成私下派人送了一封信给秦王手下的勇将尉迟敬德,表示要跟尉迟敬德交个朋友,还给尉迟敬德送去一车金银。

  尉迟敬德跟建成的使者说:“我是秦王的部下。如果私下跟太子来往,对秦王三心二意,我就成了个贪利忘义的小人。这样的人对太子又有什么用呢。”说着,他把一车金银原封不动地退了。

  建成受到尉迟敬德的拒绝,气得要命。当天夜里,元吉派了个刺客到尉迟敬德家去行刺。尉迟敬德早就料到建成他们不会放过他。一到晚上,故意把大门打开。刺客溜进院子,隔着窗户偷看,只见尉迟敬德斜靠在床上,身边放着长矛。刺客本来知道他的名气,怕他早有防备,没敢动手,偷偷地溜回去了。

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玄武门之变的参与者都有谁?玄武门之变经过
  玄武门之变,当时的唐高祖李渊次子李世民和长兄李建成、四弟李元吉争夺皇位发生的事变。最终,李世民杀掉李建成、李元吉成为新任太子,并继承皇位,名为唐太宗。

  武德九年六月四日(公元626年7月2日),李世民向李渊告发了李建成和李元吉的阴谋,李渊决定次日询问二人。李建成获知阴谋败露,决定先入皇宫,逼李渊表态。在宫城北门玄武门执行禁卫总领常何本是太子亲信,却被李世民策反。六月四日(庚申),秦王亲自带一百多人埋伏在玄武门内。李建成和李元吉一同入朝,待走到临湖殿,发觉不对头,急忙拔马往回跑。李世民带领伏兵从后面喊杀而来。李元吉情急之下向李世民连射三箭,无一射中。李世民一箭就射死李建成,尉迟恭也射死李元吉。东宫的部将得到消息前来报仇,和秦王的部队在玄武门外发生激烈战斗,尉迟恭将二人的头割下示众,李建成的兵马才不得已散去。之后,李世民跪见父亲,将事情经过上奏。三天后(癸亥),李世民被立为皇太子,诏曰:“自今军国庶事,无大小悉委太子处决,然后闻奏”。

  玄武门之变的参与者

  长孙无忌、尉迟敬德、侯君集、张公谨、刘师立、公孙武达、独孤彦云、杜君绰、郑仁泰、李孟尝

  《旧唐书列传第十八》:“六月四日,公谨与长孙无忌等九人伏于玄武门以俟变。及斩建成、元吉,其党来攻玄武门,兵锋甚盛。公谨有勇力,独闭门以拒之。以功累授左武候将军,封定远郡公,赐实封一千户。”《旧唐书列传第十八》:“六月四日,建成既死,敬德领七十骑蹑踵继至,元吉走马东奔,左右射之坠马。太宗所乘马又逸于林下,横被所繣,坠不能兴。元吉遽来夺弓,垂欲相扼,敬德跃马叱之,于是步走,欲归武德殿,敬德奔逐射杀之。”从这两条可看出:杀建成、元吉时的实际操作人数应该在八十一人左右,这个数字包括唐太宗在内(如不是敬德领七十骑蹑踵继至,人数就是十人之内)。事实上,当时的唐太宗是很凶险的,他不致丧命只是一些偶然性起作用。“太宗所乘马又逸于林下,横被所繣,坠不能兴。元吉遽来夺弓,垂欲相扼,敬德跃马叱之……”如果敬德来迟,历史将没有唐太宗。从李世民要亲自参与厮杀,从另一侧面反映出人数的少。

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  玄武门之变的过程

  玄武门之变,一场手足相残的惨剧,公元前626年由李世民发起,那场惊心动魄的惨剧隐藏在种种史料典籍的字里行间,阴冷刺骨。当年,一个拥有着赫赫战功和众多勇将谋士的秦王李世民,足以让太子李建成和齐王李元吉如坐针毡。随着双方斗争的愈演愈烈,李世民决定先下手为强。

  6月4日清晨,他与早已买通的李建成心腹——玄武门禁军守将常何内外接应,自己则率领尉迟敬德等人埋伏于玄武门内。这天一早,李建成、李元吉准备好一起去向父亲李渊狠告一状,期望削减李世民的势力。不过,就在前一晚,李世民已通过安插在太子身旁的耳目,对他们的动向了如指掌。当李建成、李元吉两人骑马行至玄武门附近时,隐隐感到气氛不对,拨马便回。这时李世民跃马冲出,一箭射死了李建成。元吉还没来得及逃走,也被敬德杀死。当东宫的太子党羽们领兵前来解围时,一切都太迟了,他们的首领已经暴毙,首级也被砍下。

  此时,皇帝李渊正在玄武门附近的后宫海池内泛舟游乐,只见尉迟敬德来报:太子作乱,已被秦王诛杀。大惊之下,李渊立即下令所有军国大事一律交给秦王李世民处理。不久后,李世民被立为太子。同年八月,李世民登上了皇帝宝座。

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李渊为何控制不住玄武门之变? 李渊怎么退位的
  唐朝建立后,李渊当上皇帝,成为唐高祖。李渊的儿子李建成李世民,二人都在摩拳擦掌为了皇位相互较量着。最终,随着争斗愈演愈烈,玄武门之变发生了!

  玄武门之变,一场手足相残的惨剧,公元前626年由李世民发起,那场惊心动魄的惨剧隐藏在种种史料典籍的字里行间,阴冷刺骨。当年,一个拥有着赫赫战功和众多勇将谋士的秦王李世民,足以让太子李建成和齐王李元吉如坐针毡。随着双方斗争的愈演愈烈,李世民决定先下手为强。

  武德九年6月4日(公元626年7月2日)清晨,李世民与早已买通的李建成心腹——玄武门禁军守将常何内外接应,自己则率领尉迟敬德等人埋伏于玄武门内。这天一早,李建成、李元吉准备好一起去向父亲李渊狠告一状,期望削减李世民的势力。不过,就在前一晚,李世民已通过安插在太子身旁的耳目,对他们的动向了如指掌。当李建成、李元吉两人骑马行至玄武门附近时,隐隐感到气氛不对,拨马便回。这时李世民跃马冲出,一箭射死了李建成。李元吉还没来得及逃走,也被敬德杀死。当东宫的太子党羽们领兵前来解围时,一切都太迟了,他们的首领已经暴毙,首级也被砍下。

  此时,皇帝李渊正在玄武门附近的后宫海池内泛舟游乐,只见尉迟敬德来报:太子作乱,已被秦王诛杀。大惊之下,李渊立即下令所有军国大事一律交给秦王李世民处理。不久后,李世民被立为太子。同年八月,李世民登上了皇帝宝座。

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  玄武门事变之所以成功就是因为它的计划太紧密了,当时李世民肯定是做了完全的准备,是绝对不可能让李渊知道的。而玄武门事变发生在626年,那时候李渊已经六十岁了,在古代那已经算是高龄了,所以在那个年纪下不知道是非常有可能的。而且在玄武门事变中李渊已经失去了两个儿子,而李元霸明显没有做皇上的能力,他总不能将李世民杀了吧。那样的话,大唐就真的不会是李家的天下了。而且李世民在太原战役等战役中都打仗打的特别好,群众基础广泛,年轻力壮。

  李渊退位是不得已,当时他已没有能力控制了。李世民杀掉了李建成,收服了其中一部分追随者,加上李世民本来的实力。说白了李渊不退位,李世民也不能就这样等着李渊死的再即位,一不做二不休,其实差不多就是逼宫了。

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