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Recession tipped as Singapore exports fall

High till Dry

Alfrescian
Loyal
SINGAPORE - A decline in Singapore's main exports for the fourth straight month has raised the risk of the region's richest economy falling into a technical third-quarter recession, analysts said Wednesday.

The city-state's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in August fell 14 per cent from the same month last year as shipments for both electronics and non-electronics goods tumbled, the government said.

The August decline worsened from the 5.8 per cent dip in July and was bigger than an eight per cent shrinkage projected by a Dow Jones Newswires poll of analysts.

Singapore's trade promotion agency, International Enterprise Singapore, said a slowing global economy hurt exports to its key markets such as the United States and Europe.

Release of the figures came after turbulence in global financial markets intensified with the collapse this week of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers.

"This fourth straight month of export contraction will certainly weigh on the domestic manufacturing sector's third-quarter 2008 growth outlook, and reaffirms our call for a manufacturing-led technical recession this year," said Alvin Liew, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank.

"And with the Singapore economy highly dependent on external demand, economic prospects certainly look much poorer in the second half."

Exports of electronics goods fell 19 per cent year-on-year in August, continuing a decline that began in February 2007, IE Singapore said.

The drop was "largely due to weaker sales of consumer electronics, integrated circuits, disk drives and telecommunications equipment," it added.

Non-electronics exports also fell 9.6 per cent, led by pharmaceuticals which were down 45.2 per cent.

Shipments to nine of Singapore's top 10 NODX markets shrank. The biggest contributors to the contraction came from the United States, the European Union and Malaysia, IE Singapore said.

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX was up 2.0 per cent in August, compared with the 2.3 per cent decline in July.

Liew said Singapore's full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to come in at 3.5 percent, lower than the government's official forecast of four to five per cent.

About 70 per cent of last year's GDP growth was driven by external demand, Liew said.

"Given the weak numbers, the risk of a technical recession has increased," said United Overseas Bank economist Hoe Woei Chen.

Manufacturing output data to be released later this month should give a better sense of that possibility, although the outlook is "not too optimistic," she told AFP.

A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contractions in the GDP, the total value of goods and services produced in a country.

On an annualised, quarter-on-quarter basis, Singapore's GDP contracted six per cent in the June quarter from the previous three months.

Hoe said if GDP growth falls below one per cent in the September quarter from the previous year, Singapore is likely to go into a technical recession.

Singapore's economic growth, measured on a year-on-year basis, slowed to an annual rate of 2.1 per cent in the second quarter, according to official data.

With poor manufacturing data likely for August, "the risk of Singapore registering another quarter of GDP contraction has increased," said Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with CIMB-GK securities.

"And with year-end festive demand likely to be weakest since the Asian financial crisis, we may have to lower our 3.5 per cent GDP forecast for the fourth quarter and the full year," he said.
 

saf_ranger

Alfrescian
Loyal
recession is good for singapore , if there no recession then i am worry....
ring the bell,who say this section ....
woodly
 

The_Latest_H

Alfrescian
Loyal
hope we'll not go into recession :(

It will only get worse before it gets better. We all hope for a miracle, but I have been warning many of us many many moons ago to get mentally prepared for it.

And plus, not to trust the PAPpies as well; we all know how much they want to mislead, and lie to get their way.
 

yellow_people

Alfrescian
Loyal
Chink dominated Sinkeepoor is a house of cards built over a pool of gasoline. Fucking STI has no legs of its own. When the old man kicks the bucket everything Chink goes to hell. In the ultimate analysis its probably for the best.
 

yellow_people

Alfrescian
Loyal
Luckily the construction sector will be holding up the economy.

Are you depending on a bunch of Bangalas whom you refuse to provide decent living accomodations to fucking hold your economy up? How shameless can a Chink get? Mind you, even that rat hole of an abandoned school at Serangoon Gardens is evidently considered too high class to cram 1000 of these bangalas. Those poor residents. May they rot in hell. Why not get the govt to move a 1000 of the ingrate Chinks in there?? I would love to see what happens next.
 

makapaaa

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
"The next five to 10 years will be the ‘most promising’ in the Republic’s entire history" - MM Lee Kuan Yew at a dialogue organised by the Economic Society of Singapore (ESS), 12th July 2008, BT

http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20070707993.htm

"We are into a period of good economic growth and social development. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region><st1:place>Singapore</st1:place></st1:country-region> made 6.6% growth in the last quarter of 2006 and 6.1% in the first quarter of 2007. If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years." SPEECH BY MR LEE KUAN YEW,MINISTER MENTOR, AT THE TANJONG PAGAR GRC ORCHARD FIESTA, 7 JULY 2007, 6.45 PM AT CIVIC PLAZA, NGEE ANN CITY BUILDING

 

Merl Haggard

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
"The next five to 10 years will be the ‘most promising’ in the Republic’s entire history" - MM Lee Kuan Yew at a dialogue organised by the Economic Society of Singapore (ESS), 12th July 2008, BT

http://app.sprinter.gov.sg/data/pr/20070707993.htm

"We are into a period of good economic growth and social development. <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region><st1:place>Singapore</st1:place></st1:country-region> made 6.6% growth in the last quarter of 2006 and 6.1% in the first quarter of 2007. If there are no wars or oil crises, this golden period can stretch out over many years." SPEECH BY MR LEE KUAN YEW,MINISTER MENTOR, AT THE TANJONG PAGAR GRC ORCHARD FIESTA, 7 JULY 2007, 6.45 PM AT CIVIC PLAZA, NGEE ANN CITY BUILDING



This blardy lao humkoo and lao yeow siew draws $6-7m a year to talk nonsence.

No wonder he does not want to retire even though he is senile and useless.
 

DerekLeung

Alfrescian
Loyal
There is no light at the end of the tunnel anymore !

Just soldier away !

Because it will only get tougher since money is smaller and goes round much less now !

And since everyone is at rish of losing his job, spending is even less now !
 

lifeafter41

Alfrescian (Inf)
Asset
Luckily the construction sector will be holding up the economy.

Construction is never known to be one of the main pillar of Singapore economy. I believe it makes up less than 10% (maybe 6%). I recall somebody did say that the F1 will be able to do that, though can't recall who said that.
 

tonychat

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Chink dominated Sinkeepoor is a house of cards built over a pool of gasoline. Fucking STI has no legs of its own. When the old man kicks the bucket everything Chink goes to hell. In the ultimate analysis its probably for the best.

I tend to agree with what you say, in fact most of your posts. You have the concept of non-reliance and using own finanical management and ability to manage your life. Very superior than those sinkies. Well done.

Any people who rely on others ( the govt) to have a good life ought to do some serious thinking, there are so many here who behave like that.
 

tonychat

Alfrescian (InfP)
Generous Asset
Construction is never known to be one of the main pillar of Singapore economy. I believe it makes up less than 10% (maybe 6%). I recall somebody did say that the F1 will be able to do that, though can't recall who said that.

He must be a sinkie who says that, better dun be someone in the minister level, or else singapore will be doomed.
 

sherrry

Alfrescian
Loyal
The situation is just a very big dilema. To sell out means realizing the losses. To hold out, it's going to very very trying.
 
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