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Economic News

xebay11

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Not sure if it is true, my Australian friend told me that locals will generally not buy a new apartment in Melbourne, they think that it is overpriced and aimed at foreigners. Also, if they really want an apartment, they will buy resale from foreigner since they know they can knife 'bua lai lai' to wait for a low price since foreigners can only sell to Australians or pr. And australians priority is still to buy a big landed house for family.

That is why I made my daughter born as an Australian, so now buy under her name as Australian. I don't buy as a foreigner, although my first purchase in 1996 was as foreigner and had to apply to FIRB, I knew then that buying as a foreigner severely limited my choices and opportunities to invest.
 

Tekkun

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No I am just small timer who is prudent, I spend only $4 a day for breakfast and lunch, lead a simple life.

$ 4 is RM 12.00.
You can have chicken rice with double drumsticks everyday in Malaysia.
Not many have that budget every day. But you can have steaks too, no one will ask you about that.
 

snowbird

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Does Malaysia’s ringgit face 1997 all over again?

The sell-off in the Malaysian ringgit, already among the world's worst performing currencies, may run further amid a toxic mix of shaky economic fundamentals and the spreading of what is being called the country's worst-ever political crisis.
The ringgit has fallen around 40 percent over the past year.
Credit Suisse noted August inflation came in at 3.1 percent on-year, above its forecast for 2.8 percent, largely due to higher food prices as the weaker currency affected import prices.
The bank expects the US$ will be fetching rm4.50 in three months.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/24/malaysian-ringgit-sell-off-may-worsen-over-economy-1mdb-najib.html
 

FHBH12

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RHB Research: BNM to maintain interest rate at 3.25% till next year

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 1, 2015:

RHB Research Institute expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 3.25% for the rest of 2015 and into 2016.

RHB Research in a research note today said the central bank decided to keep the OPR unchanged during the monetary policy meeting on Sept 11 as BNM views the latest indicators suggest continued expansion of the economy for the third quarter this year despite ongoing adjustments to external and domestic developments.

The research house said the central bank, however, highlighted downside risks to growth have increased – arising from the moderating growth momentum in the major emerging market economies, uncertainty in commodity prices and the heightened volatility in financial markets.

“As inflation is expected to be contained in 2015 and 2016 while the ringgit continues to trade at a weak level, the central bank will likely put rates on hold for some time to come.”

RHB Research also expected broad money (M3) growth to sustain at between 4% and 5% next year, matching the estimated pace this year, on the back of a sustained growth in economic activities.

It said loan growth, however, is expected to slow down to between 6% and 7% next year, from an estimate of 7.5-8.5% this year, constrained by more stringent rules on lending to households and curbs on the property market.

RHB Research said the ringgit, which weakened by more than 20% compared to a year ago, would likely push up prices of imported goods while lingering weak energy prices will continue to suppress the inflation rate as it is about half the pace it registered over the same corresponding period last year.

It said slower consumption spending following the Goods and Services Tax implementation, tightening of the property sector and elevated household debt at 85% of gross domestic product would likely result in a more subdued impact on inflation going forward.

“As a result, inflation is expected to inch up slightly to 2.7% in 2016, from an estimate of 2.3% increase this year and compared with 3.1% growth last year.”

http://www.therakyatpost.com/busine...aintain-interest-rate-at-3-25-till-next-year/
 

FHBH12

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BNP now sees U.S. rate hike in March 2016

NEW YORK
Oct 2

BNP Paribas' U.S. economists on Friday pushed out their call on the timing of a U.S. rate increase to March 2016 from December in the wake of a surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls report.

The U.S. Labor Department said on Friday U.S. employers outside the farm sector added 142,000 workers in September, far fewer than the 203,000 forecast among economists polled by Reuters. Wage growth also stalled last month.

"At this stage we pushed the date of lift off to March," the BNP U.S. economists wrote in a research note.

BNP is one of the 22 top Wall Street firms that do business directly with the Fed. (Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/02/bnp-paribas-fed-idUSL1N12211720151002
 

cow138

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Cool.. Looks like Desaru is shaping up nicely..
Apparently the developments over there is much more then that
 

FHBH12

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Cool.. Looks like Desaru is shaping up nicely..
Apparently the developments over there is much more then that

I was at Desaru in Jun this year and saw very heavy constructions along the stretch of beach beside the existing Lotus Desaru Beach Resort. It should be linked to this development.
 

cow138

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Loyal
Yes.. I was there too.. Looked pretty impressive.. Desaru is badly in need of some development.
But the number of operators going in is quite impressive.. Something must be brewing there..
The RAPID oil refinery is gaining steam.
 

FHBH12

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State of the Malaysian economy

Friday, 23 October 2015
IZWAN IDRIS

THE economy is expected to grow at a lower pace next year compared with 2015 as the government projects slower growth in the manufacturing, services and construction sectors.

The report said GDP was expected to expand between 4% and 5% in 2016 compared with the 4.4% to 5.5% growth estimated for the current year.

Domestic demand was expected to offset the drag on the economy from a slowdown in growth in emerging markets, particularly China.

Lower commodity prices, depreciating currencies in emerging markets and volatility in financial markets will be hurdles to economic growth.

However, these would be counterbalanced with activity by the private and public sectors, with private expenditure the main anchor while public expenditure will increase moderately.

To boost the economy, the Government has raised allocation for development spending by 6.1% to RM49.2bil, while operating expenditure will remain at RM215.2bil.

The increase in spending will be matched by higher revenue in 2016 forecast at RM225.6bil. The fiscal deficit in 2016 is projected at 3.1% of GDP.

Trade surplus is projected to be higher in 2015 at RM85.3bil, or 7.3% of GDP.

Debt level

The level of Government’s debt is projected to increase RM627.5bil, or 54% of GDP in 2015 from current RM582.8bil last year, or 52.7% of GDP.

Household debts level remained high at 88.1% of GDP at end of August, up from 86.8% of GDP at the end of 2014.

Fiscal consolidation

The government will continue its fiscal consolidation in 2016 as it seeks to achieve a balanced budget by 2020 but it acknowledges there will be challenges from external sources.

It emphasises that while it ensures strong public finances, fiscal policy will continue to support economic growth and improve the people’s well being.

“With all the measures in place, the fiscal deficit is projected at RM38.8bil or 3.1% of GDP in 2016 (2015: 3.2%),” it said.

The fiscal deficit has come down from 6.7% in 2009 to 3.4% of GDP in 2014.

Revenue collection

The government expects revenue to increase by 1.4% to RM225.70bil due to higher tax revenue.

For instance, collection from oil-related revenue is expected to increase by 1.7% to RM265.2bil (2015: RM260.7bil).

Due to the implementation of the managed float fuel pricing system, subsidies, incentives and assistance will remain low at RM26.1bil (12.1%), reflecting a more targeted subsidy mechanism to reduce market distortions and leakages.

GST

The government projects to collect RM39bil from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2016 – which is about 3.1% of the GDP as it seeks to achieve a balanced budget by 2020.

Since the GST was implemented in April, collection was RM27bil, higher than the earlier projection of RM21.7bil.

For 2016, GST’s collection will reflect a full 12-month of the tax implementation that had replaced the Sales and Services Tax (SST).

The higher collection will offset the contraction in oil-related revenue that has been the main revenue source for the Government.

Inflation, employment

Inflation rate is expected to increase from 1.9% in 2015 to between 2% and 3% in 2016.

However, the government expects the unemployment rate to decline from 3.1% in 2015 to 2.9% in 2016.

Strong economic fundamentals such as benign inflation and stable employment supported by accommodative monetary policy are expected to support growth.

Medium-term fiscal framework

The government also announced under the medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF) for 2016 to 2018, its revenue was estimated to be RM729.50bil.

The projection for the three years was based on the assumption that US light crude oil would be between US$48 and US$60 per barrel and oil production to be 600,000 barrels per day.

On Friday, US crude oil was trading below US$46, which is sharply lower than the near US$100 in July 2014.

The three-year framework expects non-oil revenue to be RM631.60bil and non-oil revenue RM97.9bil.

The government’s operating expenditure is expected to be RM685.7bil during the period and gross development expenditure RM153bil.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Business-News/2015/10/23/Slower-GDP-growth-ahead/?style=biz
 

FHBH12

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Loyal
Inflation could hit 4-5% on the ground due to minimum wage level increase. There are also recent steep increases like tolls charges in KL. Expect other government services to raise their fees or taxes silently.
 
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