Those who desire hardcore opposition

[PoliticalDialogue]

... will be disappointed.

Only moderate opposition, i.e., WP, stands a chance in GE2015. It is the WP of LTK. Definitely NOT the WP of JBJ.
Why? Because this is the overwhelming nature of Singapore society -- moderate and/or conservative.

Those who have personal axes to grind against the government -- because they have been incarcerated for some crime or the other, or for some other reason -- will be cursing on election night. That much is clear. Do not expect the majority of Singaporeans -- moderates and conservatives -- to help you out there, because they will not.

So, do not say I have not alerted you in advance. It is best to have realistic expectations. Expectations grounded in what the majority of voters are likely to opt for, instead of what you desire if you are one of those who spends his/her time grinding an axe.

 

[zhihau]

In my last assessment, 57% +/- 3% valid votes for PAP still stands.

 

[PoliticalDialogue]

The popular vote becomes less relevant due to a number of variables, as follows:

1. The sudden shambles that NSP finds itself in. Just a month ago it would be correct to say that NSP might have, for example, secured 46-47% of the vote in Tampines. Today, it will find it tough to cross the 40 percentile mark.

2. With the 10 electoral divisions contested by WP in play, the other 19 divisions will see a lacklustre vote. This is quite a unique S'pore electoral phenomenon which you rarely see in other jurisdictions. But it underscores my point of the overwhelming moderate and conservative nature of the voter base.

So, it is seats, instead of popular vote, which will count.

On the other hand, due to point 2 above I do not discount WP polling so strongly in its 10 divisions that it might offset the fall off in the anti-PAP votes elsewhere.

Consequently, I would suggest it is quite difficult to get a proper handle on the popular vote in GE2015. What will matter will be the final seat count divvied up between PAP and WP.

 

[brocoli]

I see 68% for PAP due to sub-par opposition candidates and fragmented opposition with so many parties...

I see WP votes drop to 42% from 46%...

If WP can hold on to Aljunied, is consider a very good results ...

MOST LIKELY RESULTS ... WP retain hougang for 1 seat in parliament...

a good result for PAP will be to bring its hougang votes to at least 45%

 

[3_M]

Most non WP oppositions are unlikely going to surpass the 40% mark. In fact I won't be surprised if the score for RP drop below 30%.

For WP I expect a very close fight in MP GRC and EC GRC.

 

[PoliticalDialogue]

In fact I won't be surprised if the score for RP drop below 30%.

Quite difficult to say. A significant structural change in the nature of the electorate might have already occurred in advance of the election that could have increased the size of the irreducible core of anti-PAP voters from what I have consistently said was 25% going into any election.

Where I am in West Coast GRC, I do not expect RP's vote share to fall under 30%. But it is possible that the percentage of spoilt votes might tick up in this GRC due to voter dislike for Kenneth Jeyaretnam and memories of his 1.2% vote in the PEBE.

 

[3_M]

Quite difficult to say. A significant structural change in the nature of the electorate might have already occurred in advance of the election that could have increased the size of the irreducible core of anti-PAP voters from what I have consistently said was 25% going into any election.

Where I am in West Coast GRC, I do not expect RP's vote share to fall under 30%. But it is possible that the percentage of spoilt votes might tick up in this GRC due to voter dislike for Kenneth Jeyaretnam and memories of his 1.2% vote in the PEBE.

I think RP does serve one useful purpose in the way it enables pap to roughly gauge the size of opposition supporter base in the areas they are contesting. Simply because only protest voters will vote such opposition and not middle ground.

Talk about voter structure, I do think on top of the 25% irreducible hardcore, there exist perhaps another 5% of moderate opposition. They are a bit more selective and demanding with the standard of opposition party/candidates and some might spoil their votes if they deem the opposition are not up to their expectations.

Conventional belief is there are 3 voting blocs anti pap, middle ground and pro pap. I do think there exist the 4th voting bloc consist of apathetic voters. If there is no mandatory voting, I will disregard this bloc.

 

[zhihau]

Conventional belief is there are 3 voting blocs anti pap, middle ground and pro pap. I do think there exist the 4th voting bloc consist of apathetic voters. If there is no mandatory voting, I will disregard this bloc.

Glad this was brought up along in this discussion, my guesstimate suggests the pool of die-hard PAP supporters includes party members, the CC/CCC/PA/RC group, the PorLumpars aka sycophants who are ready to be inducted into the CC/CCC/PA/RC group; which aggregate to about 15-20% of the electorate.

The other side of the spectrum where the die-hard opposition supporters includes the political converts, the disgruntled, the marginalized group; also making up about 20-25% of the electorate.

The moderates are in fact the largest group amongst all four with the apathetic shoring up about 5-10% of the electorate.

 

[3_M]

Glad this was brought up along in this discussion, my guesstimate suggests the pool of die-hard PAP supporters includes party members, the CC/CCC/PA/RC group, the PorLumpars aka sycophants who are ready to be inducted into the CC/CCC/PA/RC group; which aggregate to about 15-20% of the electorate.

The other side of the spectrum where the die-hard opposition supporters includes the political converts, the disgruntled, the marginalized group; also making up about 20-25% of the electorate.

The moderates are in fact the largest group amongst all four with the apathetic shoring up about 5-10% of the electorate.

my guesstimate which is 10-15% for true believer of pap. Pap knew their support base are actually very small which is why they could not relinquish control of grassroots organizations to opp even if they lose. Grassroots organistion are essential tool for pap to reach out to the apathetic voters which I guess number at around 20-25%. Both apathetic and pro pap voters together form pap support base.

 

[zhihau]

So, it is seats, instead of popular vote, which will count

Good chance: AJ GRC (5), EC GRC (4), JB GRC (4), MP GRC (5), FS SMC (1), HG SMC (1), MB SMC (1), MP SMC (1), PE SMC (1), PP SMC (1), SKW SMC (1)

It's more colorful in the east :p:p:p

 

[3_M]

Jeannette Chong clearly has the momentum. Info I got from party source is they expect 50-50 fight for MB SMC..though I can't be sure if they are too confident.

As for PP SMC, CST will be playing the supporting role for his wife as voters here still have a sentiment feel for CST. Had CST stand as a candidate his health condition will be a liability. I think it a good move for SPP to adopt the LC-CST combo strategy to fight Sito. Latest info I got was the party expects to win back PP SMC.

 

[zhihau]

Updated List: AJ GRC (5), EC GRC (4), HBT GRC (4), JB GRC (4), MP GRC (5), FS SMC (1), HG SMC (1), MB SMC (1), MP SMC (1), PE SMC (1), PP SMC (1), SKW SMC (1)

Still 1 short from 30 seats :(:(:(

 

[Aisanbo]

I often hear people say PAP is doing well so far as a government, so we should vote for them rather than opposition.
One of these days, my friends, we'll wake up to a GE in Singapore where there's only PAP candidates.
Nobody else is interested. On Nomination Day, PAP gets all 89 Parliament Seats.
These people will be happy that the PAP can run the country with focused minds.....until one day....they feel that their own interests had really been undermined.
Their voices are not heard by the government.
They have no one to turn to.
Other people will start to tell them that if they are not happy with Singapore , then go and run for elections.
But they will not win...because they themselves had killed the opposition.

 

[Sinkie]

Updated List: AJ GRC (5), EC GRC (4), HBT GRC (4), JB GRC (4), MP GRC (5), FS SMC (1), HG SMC (1), MB SMC (1), MP SMC (1), PE SMC (1), PP SMC (1), SKW SMC (1)

Still 1 short from 30 seats :(:(:(

So you get 30 seats.....so what? It does nothing to the unilateral passing of bills and laws in lumparliament.
You need 46 seats.

 

[silverv]

So you get 30 seats.....so what? It does nothing to the unilateral passing of bills and laws in lumparliament.
You need 46 seats.

This election have 89 seat , 30 seats can block Constitution Bill changed ... it is very important

 

[PoliticalDialogue]

... will be disappointed.

Only moderate opposition, i.e., WP, stands a chance in GE2015. It is the WP of LTK. Definitely NOT the WP of JBJ.
Why? Because this is the overwhelming nature of Singapore society -- moderate and/or conservative.

Those who have personal axes to grind against the government -- because they have been incarcerated for some crime or the other, or for some other reason -- will be cursing on election night. That much is clear. Do not expect the majority of Singaporeans -- moderates and conservatives -- to help you out there, because they will not.

So, do not say I have not alerted you in advance. It is best to have realistic expectations. Expectations grounded in what the majority of voters are likely to opt for, instead of what you desire if you are one of those who spends his/her time grinding an axe.

I felt I tried my best to temper the expectations of most opposition supporters. This was not just a gut feeling; it was detailed groundwork.

 

[3_M]

. Much as I expect all non WP oppositions to perform worse than GE 11, i look forward to WP capturing more seats.

The tsunami was totally unexpected. Speaking with the benefit of hindsight I reckon that many factors work against oppositions.

Feel good factor from sg50, sympathy from death of lky, uncertainty in the global economies make the risk averse middle ground more wary about voting opposition. Plus the fragmented state of opposition doesn't instill confidence. some individual like TJS even suggest oppositions could takeover the govt during NUSS forum. This could only scare away more voters.

For WP, fighting election requires more than just sound tactics, meticulous planning etc. a lot also depends on the macros. I couldn't fault them for bad planning. They have been careful not to set the bar too high by advocating things like forming a rainbow coalition govt. It just very unfortunate that the political tide doesn't favor them.

 

[zhihau]

It just very unfortunate that the political tide doesn't favor them.

I just finished chatting with most of my kakis, those whom pledged their support the oppositions didn't waver in the last minute. Majority of them had their votes nullified by their spouses' votes. This is true especially in my neighborhood. The fear that opposition could form the government wasn't a strong factor to vote the PAP, but rather the gratitude for what the PAP had done for the last 5 decades.

 

[3_M]

I just finished chatting with most of my kakis, those whom pledged their support the oppositions didn't waver in the last minute. Majority of them had their votes nullified by their spouses' votes. This is true especially in my neighborhood. The fear that opposition could form the government wasn't a strong factor to vote the PAP, but rather the gratitude for what the PAP had done for the last 5 decades.

Don't thing we can just draw conclusion by talking with a handful of people.

I would think it the combination of the various factors I listed. The current state of opposition doesn't allow them to compete with pap on both local and national issues. On the municipal issues, opposition lacks the grassroots networks and state machinery to provide a comprehensive plan to compete with pap.

On the national front, voters don't see how opposition could have done better than pap. The fragmented state of opposition doesn't allow them to provide a common platform to let voters compare one set of policy proposal with pap policy. In the end, Voters get confused. And the thought of having a coalition gov consist of various opposition parties is indeed a scary thought.

PAP on their part successfully employed fear mongering tactic by sounding the alarm that they could not guarantee they will be the gov after the GE. As early as last year, lhl already started to sound the alarm. Statements by some ministers and fielding the near retiring gct to contest does reinforced the perception that situation wasn't good for pap. Middle ground choose to play safe in the end. Bearing the uncertain economic outlook ahead, no one got the appetite to think about checks and balance.

 

[3_M]

Those who have personal axes to grind against the government -- because they have been incarcerated for some crime or the other, or for some other reason -- will be cursing on election night. That much is clear. Do not expect the majority of Singaporeans -- moderates and conservatives -- to help you out there, because they will not.

I think in this regard, WP also committed the mistakes of airing too much grievances (though they are justify) during campaigning. Grievances like how they were being disadvantage by pap and deprived the resources compare to other pap run tc. I had my reservations when I heard that but I just thought maybe WP senses the ground sentiment is different this time. From a voters point of view, why should I inconvenience myself by voting oppositions if that the case?