There has been a number of posts expressing the likelihood that PAP will lose the Government soon or in the near future. Both are not possible unless the Party splits or implodes.
1) PAP currently holds 80. It won 81 seats in GE2011 but lost one in a By-election. During GE2011. there was 26 contests, Tanjong Pagar was a walkover. It won 24 contests (SMC plusGRC). Those are powerful numbers.
2) The opposition must take 37 more seats from the PAP to remove its minority. Is that a possibility
3) Even if PAP only secures 43 seats, just missing the majority, can the Opposition unify to form a coalition or will the PAP end up running a minority Govt.
So we are looking at big numbers to see change and are there enough viable parties and candidates to mount the challenge.
In my opinion, very likely the PAP will try to form a coalition should the opposition remove its 2/3 majority. It will follow the time-honoured carrot on the stick approach - offering rewards in exchange for cooperation and at the same time punishing non-cooperation with its standard bag of tricks ranging from hawker centre ceiling fiascos to libel suits.
Am of view too that Aurvandil is correct about the 2021 as that is the demographic turning point where significant number of voters will reach retirement age and find their CPF locked up. 20% withdrawal at age 65 is not going to cut it for them.
Another pattern is that Singapore seems to follow a 20-year cycle. Our status as a sovereign nation which we first achieved on 31 Aug 1963 (via unilateral declaration of independence) marked the beginning of the first cycle which saw phenomenal industrial growth, and the forming of a coherent multi-cultural identity (not to be confused with an overall national identity or what it means to be Singaporean per se).
The second cycle began with the deep recession of the mid '80s, after which government policies moved from being people-oriented to being business-oriented and citizens starting to become economic digits. During the second cycle, wages were suppressed, CPF contributions were clashed, the asset enhancement framework for property drove prices up, and that was also the period when Singaporeans started to develop the famous kiasu-kiasi-kiachenghu mentality.
The third cycle began with the election of LHL as PM and that was when SG started opening the floodgates to foreigners which in turn caused all the problems we see today ranging from overburdening of infrastructure to underemployment of PMETs to declining service standards and declining overall quality of life.
The fourth cycle I suspect will begin around the 2020s. As usual, the start of a new cycle will be defined by our country having to face a major political or socio-economic problem. The first cycle started with our having to deal with merger, independence as well as the communists. The second cycle started with our having to deal with deep recession caused by the excesses of the previous cycle. The 3rd cycle started with the successful end of SARS and the global economic recession as a result of the 9/11 terror attacks and the dot-com bust.
And it will be the tackling of this national crisis that will cause major shifts in govt policy as well as the tenor of the country as a whole.