Marginalised Politicians, Wasted Potential?

[metalmickey]

Let me make this contention to you: people heard about the IMF loan constitutional challenge because it was reported in the MSM, but perhaps between 95% and 98% of educated Singaporeans simply do not care about this issue. Is my characterisation incorrect? If so, pray tell, what percentage of educated Singaporeans do you believe care about this issue?

It's not whether people care about the issue. Going through that issue would have exposed a great deal about the processes by which major financial decisions are made in the Singapore government. That issue is important because management of finances in Singapore is directly related to bread and butter issues. Even if people don't care about it, they ought to.

Otherwise you might as well say that Watergate was about a burglary in a city where burglaries take place all the time.

I also want to add that there were quite a few blog articles about Christopher Balding's questions. If Lucky Tan thinks that this is important, it probably is.

 

[wwabbit]

Let me make this contention to you: people heard about the IMF loan constitutional challenge because it was reported in the MSM, but perhaps between 95% and 98% of educated Singaporeans simply do not care about this issue. Is my characterisation incorrect? If so, pray tell, what percentage of educated Singaporeans do you believe care about this issue?

I didn't really care about the issue, but was interested enough to do some research into it. I've posted about it here a few weeks ago, but to cut a long story short, TKL and KJ were challenging only for the sake of challenging. The loan doesn't violate the constitution at all. They came up with some really twisted and farfetched interpretation of the constitution which would have made our entire Official Foreign Reserves illegal.

 

[metalmickey]

General Goh Meng Seng went up against the Managing Director of MAS, a Managing Director at Microsoft and a Managing Director at Hill & Knowton.

I don't even recognise any of the other names in Goh Meng Seng's team, so everybody please blame the other candidates. It is never never never Field Marshall Goh Meng Seng's fault.

Well he could have fielded a star team at Tampines. Maybe Tampines will be like Aljunied - it falls to the opposition the election cycle after GMS competes in it.

 

[metalmickey]

I didn't really care about the issue, but was interested enough to do some research into it. I've posted about it here a few weeks ago, but to cut a long story short, TKL and KJ were challenging only for the sake of challenging. The loan doesn't violate the constitution at all. They came up with some really twisted and farfetched interpretation of the constitution which would have made our entire Official Foreign Reserves illegal.

Making our foreign reserves illegal is probably going too far. But the whole issue of managing foreign reserves is such an important one because everything - income inequality, financing of public transport, price of property in Singapore, health care - is related to fiscal policy. Abstract things like these are at the heart of your "bread and butter" issues.

 

[ray_of_hope]

It's not whether people care about the issue. Going through that issue would have exposed a great deal about the processes by which major financial decisions are made in the Singapore government. That issue is important because management of finances in Singapore is directly related to bread and butter issues. Even if people don't care about it, they ought to.

Otherwise you might as well say that Watergate was about a burglary in a city where burglaries take place all the time.

I also want to add that there were quite a few blog articles about Christopher Balding's questions. If Lucky Tan thinks that this is important, it probably is.

Not sure how you arrive at these inapt analogies. One episode is simply about a loan, another is about a break-in, i.,e., a crime. Why the IMF loan does not resonate with Singaporeans is simply because it is a loan and not a gift. In fact, money-faced Singaporeans would be salivating at the prospect of the Government getting good interest if the IMF actually drew down the loan, and that is a big if.

I didn't really care about the issue, but was interested enough to do some research into it. I've posted about it here a few weeks ago, but to cut a long story short, TKL and KJ were challenging only for the sake of challenging. The loan doesn't violate the constitution at all. They came up with some really twisted and farfetched interpretation of the constitution which would have made our entire Official Foreign Reserves illegal.

You see, this is my same point too.

 

[wwabbit]

Not sure how you arrive at these inapt analogies. One episode is simply about a loan, another is about a break-in, i.,e., a crime. Why the IMF loan does not resonate with Singaporeans is simply because it is a loan and not a gift. In fact, money-faced Singaporeans would be salivating at the prospect of the Government getting good interest if the IMF actually drew down the loan, and that is a big if.

We have about US$260B in our Official Foreign Reserves, mostly in the form of investments. If IMF calls on the loan, we will be obliged to liquidate up to $4B of the investments to provide the loan to IMF. Since the investments in the first place are presumed to be earning some money, I don't think the interest from the loan is that big a deal. It may even be lower than what we would have gotten from the investment, but these things are hard to tell. We would presumably have a large diversified portfolio and choose to liquidate an underperforming one, which may end up with a nett gain if we give the loan.

In any case $4B is a very small percentage of our entire OFR. It's really all a big hooha over nothing.

 

[metalmickey]

In any case $4B is a very small percentage of our entire OFR. It's really all a big hooha over nothing.

It's true that the loan was a small amount. I thought he was attacking the process rather than the loan itself. You could say that it was possible for him to go up against larger issues like why do our foreign reserves take precedence over spending. But he wouldn't be able to attack those issues because nobody would give any information. So he just went after what he could.

And the issue of how much is actually in our current reserves, what the hell the money is there for and not being used, what sort of a rainy day that that money could possibly be for. In a real rainy day - say maybe something on the scale of another Japanese occupation - that money's not going to be very helpful anyway. I thought that a lot of good questions were raised about why there is so much disparity over different ways of estimating how much the Temasek / GIC portfolio are worth.

As for whether the current GIC / Temasek system is a crime - if you rob a bank, it is a crime. If you use the bank to rob the world, it is not a crime. What is a crime or is not a crime depends on how you write the rules. And who writes the rules? Parliament. One way to see our reserves is that it is growing national wealth. Another way to see it is that it is basically billions of dollars which could have been spent on the public - like you and I - but is not. Basically, systemised theft.

 

[chilakak]

Well he could have fielded a star team at Tampines. Maybe Tampines will be like Aljunied - it falls to the opposition the election cycle after GMS competes in it.

GMS chose to run in Marine Parade because he over-rated himself but then again, what else is new. He thought he could have the distinction of defeating the SM. His ego got the better of him.

 

[Cosmos10]

Sometimes, I wish our Singapore culture can be a little more tolerant of people who tried but failed. I notice there is a tendency even in this forum to be over-critical of people who failed.

 

[metalmickey]

GMS chose to run in Marine Parade because he over-rated himself but then again, what else is new. He thought he could have the distinction of defeating the SM. His ego got the better of him.

I am going to be very specific about what mistakes that he made. With the value of hindsight, Marine Parade and Tampines were not lousy picks. Choosing them for NSP turned out to be a fairly decent decision. GCT was weakened by Tin Pei Ling, and it's not like he's the most popular guy - I'm not even sure he's a better prime minister than Pinky. Tampines was ripe for the picking. The curious thing was not fielding a GRC team with 3 or 4 strong candidates. SPP did that, WP did that, even SDP did that - even though if SDP had put Tan Jee Say in an SMC, he might have pushed the PAP all the way - it was not obvious that SDP should have done this strategy. But what NSP did was the worst of all strategies. Putting your strongest guy in an SMC is a strategy, putting many strong guys in a GRC is a strategy. But nobody other than the PAP should put a strong guy and a few passengers in a GRC.

 

[Cosmos10]

I think people like Eric Tan, GMS, TJS, etc. should not be considered as "damaged goods". They should re-enter the political scene if they like to in the future. Finally, the voters are the ones to make the decisions. In the West, voters do not discourage their "failed" politicians to re-enter politics. Singaporeans are very stingy with our praise for them, and criticize too much, like here in this forum.

 

[Fook Seng]

But what NSP did was the worst of all strategies. Putting your strongest guy in an SMC is a strategy, putting many strong guys in a GRC is a strategy. But nobody other than the PAP should put a strong guy and a few passengers in a GRC.

Totally agree with you. You cannot be half-hearted in politics.

 

[tanwahp]

I am going to be very specific about what mistakes that he made. With the value of hindsight, Marine Parade and Tampines were not lousy picks. Choosing them for NSP turned out to be a fairly decent decision. GCT was weakened by Tin Pei Ling, and it's not like he's the most popular guy - I'm not even sure he's a better prime minister than Pinky. Tampines was ripe for the picking. The curious thing was not fielding a GRC team with 3 or 4 strong candidates. SPP did that, WP did that, even SDP did that - even though if SDP had put Tan Jee Say in an SMC, he might have pushed the PAP all the way - it was not obvious that SDP should have done this strategy. But what NSP did was the worst of all strategies. Putting your strongest guy in an SMC is a strategy, putting many strong guys in a GRC is a strategy. But nobody other than the PAP should put a strong guy and a few passengers in a GRC.

NSP is basically an omnibus party where interested candidates "lease" NSP party ticket which is better than running as an independent. It will be difficult to unite the strongest players under the strongest teams.

With the new breakoff group from RP, things may change. There was one team that was strong in 2011. The CCK team. But they went to a fresh ward that they did not create presence yet.

 

[metalmickey]

NSP is basically an omnibus party where interested candidates "lease" NSP party ticket which is better than running as an independent. It will be difficult to unite the strongest players under the strongest teams.

With the new breakoff group from RP, things may change. There was one team that was strong in 2011. The CCK team. But they went to a fresh ward that they did not create presence yet.

OK, you have a strong team with strong characters and you put them in a GRC where you don't have big names, and you don't have unpopular characters. The strongest people in the party can't contest a GRC together because they're from different factions of the same party? They should have gone into Tampines and Marine Parade to slap somebody upside down. That team, you add one Nicole Seah or one Goh Meng Seng and then send into one of those eastern areas, you can whack them silly. Now Nicole is stuck in MP. Those guys are stuck in CCK. See? Goh Meng Seng is a genius. And CCK not totally a fresh ward since wikipedia tells me that Sebastian Teo was in that area in 2006.

You see, that's the thing about opposition unity. It doesn't only refer to people of different parties working together. It also refers more to your own party. If you can't get that shit right then it is tragic. But you know there is some sort of a system. Like if you do well for some other party, you could "graduate" into WP. Like Michelle Lee is there. And Ang Yong Guan has been lifting his skirt and batting his eyelids at Worker's Party recently, I dunno if this is a start of something. That's why the other political parties are important, they are a part of conveyor belt of talent. It is like Man City (note: light blue uniforms also) winning the football league with the best talent from all the other teams. Or Man Utd doing likewise 20 years ago, they also bought the best players from all the other teams.

 

[Fook Seng]

GMS chose to run in Marine Parade because he over-rated himself but then again, what else is new. He thought he could have the distinction of defeating the SM. His ego got the better of him.

I think what he wanted to prove was that he could do big things without WP. That got the better of him and he lost his marbles.

 

[wwabbit]

I am going to be very specific about what mistakes that he made. With the value of hindsight, Marine Parade and Tampines were not lousy picks. Choosing them for NSP turned out to be a fairly decent decision. GCT was weakened by Tin Pei Ling, and it's not like he's the most popular guy - I'm not even sure he's a better prime minister than Pinky. Tampines was ripe for the picking. The curious thing was not fielding a GRC team with 3 or 4 strong candidates. SPP did that, WP did that, even SDP did that - even though if SDP had put Tan Jee Say in an SMC, he might have pushed the PAP all the way - it was not obvious that SDP should have done this strategy. But what NSP did was the worst of all strategies. Putting your strongest guy in an SMC is a strategy, putting many strong guys in a GRC is a strategy. But nobody other than the PAP should put a strong guy and a few passengers in a GRC.

To be fair, I don't think it was Mr Goh Meng Seng's fault for what happened with NSP in GE2011. Although he "took full responsibility" for NSP's poor performance, my guess is he knew that he there was a power shift going on in the NSP and he had to make a graceful exit.

I can't fault NSP for trying to put strong candidates in the SMCs, and Nicole Seah into Marine Parade GRC. The big issue was Choa Chu Kang GRC and Tampines GRC. Tampines was a far sweeter ground and if they had put all their strongest candidates in there they could have possibly outperformed East Coast GRC for an NCMP slot. Instead, Mr Goh Meng Seng ended up in Tampines with four unknowns. Meanwhile Sebastian Teo joined 3 or 4 ex-Reform members including Hazel Poa and Tony Tan in Chua Chu Kang where they performed dismally.

It sounds a lot to me like GMS wasn't really in control and the ex-Reformers insisted on competing in Chua Chu Kang, a ground that they've probably worked before while in Reform, and Sebastian supported them. This eventually led to what the NSP's CEC looks like today.

 

[6000kmApart]

Putting your strongest guy in an SMC is a strategy, putting many strong guys in a GRC is a strategy. But nobody other than the PAP should put a strong guy and a few passengers in a GRC.

I reckon the days of PAP putting a strong guy and a few passengers are over. No longer does this strategy holds tight. The strong guy in which for many cases are a ministerial candidate, looking at the current state of affairs, the ministers are turning out to be a liability... Aljunied is a case study, and recall there was never anything wrong with GY at all, in fact he was virtually infallible... if Punggol East SMC holds dear to PAP, why the 3 week old candidate?

 

[metalmickey]

To be fair, I don't think it was Mr Goh Meng Seng's fault for what happened with NSP in GE2011. Although he "took full responsibility" for NSP's poor performance, my guess is he knew that he there was a power shift going on in the NSP and he had to make a graceful exit.

I can't fault NSP for trying to put strong candidates in the SMCs, and Nicole Seah into Marine Parade GRC. The big issue was Choa Chu Kang GRC and Tampines GRC. Tampines was a far sweeter ground and if they had put all their strongest candidates in there they could have possibly outperformed East Coast GRC for an NCMP slot. Instead, Mr Goh Meng Seng ended up in Tampines with four unknowns. Meanwhile Sebastian Teo joined 3 or 4 ex-Reform members including Hazel Poa and Tony Tan in Chua Chu Kang where they performed dismally.

It sounds a lot to me like GMS wasn't really in control and the ex-Reformers insisted on competing in Chua Chu Kang, a ground that they've probably worked before while in Reform, and Sebastian supported them. This eventually led to what the NSP's CEC looks like today.

Well, sounds like NSP is a bit of a mess, but he could have put his foot down and fielded himself in Chua Chu Kang? That would have helped to deflect charges against not fielding an all star GRC team. The Chua Chu Kang team didn't do that badly, considering that when Sebastian Teo contested in 2006 he only got 30%. Well since the RP wing of NSP wanted to contest CCK, it's always going to be a shame. We know that the sweetest grounds were in Tampines and Marine PArade. The optimal strategy was for the star team to be in one of these places. I heard that Nicole Seah used to live in Tampines and she could have been fielded there as well, although if you didn't put her against Tin Pei Ling, Tin Pei Ling would not have been unpopular .

Well let's hope that NSP can get their act together. They should just keep Nicole Seah in Marine Parade and if they can build a strong team around her, who knows what will happen? Seems like Goh Meng Seng didn't so much make a lot of mistakes as it was the case that he had a lot of bad decisions thrust upon him. I think a lot of people don't like his big mouth more than anything else.

 

[TuaGow]

Well, sounds like NSP is a bit of a mess, but he could have put his foot down and fielded himself in Chua Chu Kang? That would have helped to deflect charges against not fielding an all star GRC team. The Chua Chu Kang team didn't do that badly, considering that when Sebastian Teo contested in 2006 he only got 30%. Well since the RP wing of NSP wanted to contest CCK, it's always going to be a shame. We know that the sweetest grounds were in Tampines and Marine PArade. The optimal strategy was for the star team to be in one of these places. I heard that Nicole Seah used to live in Tampines and she could have been fielded there as well, although if you didn't put her against Tin Pei Ling, Tin Pei Ling would not have been unpopular .

Well let's hope that NSP can get their act together. They should just keep Nicole Seah in Marine Parade and if they can build a strong team around her, who knows what will happen? Seems like Goh Meng Seng didn't so much make a lot of mistakes as it was the case that he had a lot of bad decisions thrust upon him. I think a lot of people don't like his big mouth more than anything else.

nicole seah should quit nsp and join wp. that botak terrence tan from marine parade seems very impressive. together with yee jjen jong, nicole seah and terrence seah, they should have a good chance winning marine parade.

 

[metalmickey]

I reckon the days of PAP putting a strong guy and a few passengers are over. No longer does this strategy holds tight. The strong guy in which for many cases are a ministerial candidate, looking at the current state of affairs, the ministers are turning out to be a liability... Aljunied is a case study, and recall there was never anything wrong with GY at all, in fact he was virtually infallible... if Punggol East SMC holds dear to PAP, why the 3 week old candidate?

In fact there were 3 strong guys on the PAP side. George Yeo wasn't the only minister, there was Lim Hwee Hwa. And then there was the Malay guy who was going to be made speaker if elected. (We know what happened to the guy who actually became the speaker. I wonder if something bad is going to happen to Halimah Yaacob). But Aljunied was very strong for the opposition, especially since everybody expected it to fall to the opposition. It was the one place where you could vote opposition and not worry about producing that dreaded "freak result" where the PAP lost power.

To get to that point where everybody is willing to kick their PAP people out will require a big change in attitude. But it's already possible. For many years, in order to keep the balance of "every seat but Hougang and Potong Pasir" the PAP might have kept on a lot of people as ministers who weren't necessarily good. That probably screwed them up as well. Now they have to purge the entire cabinet, and the "trusted candidate" factor will not be strong as 2016. We have 2 ways to go from here - we will either be stuck at around 10 opposition people in parliament for man years, or we could be in an irreversible trend towards eventually dumping the PAP out of power. You can see the "we'll have 7 million people in Singapore before 2030" thing. Coincidently 2030 is the earliest date some of us estimate that we can kick out the PAP.

I remember Cherian George had an article during the 2011 elections where he said that PAP is having difficulties finding good candidates who want to stand. Koh seems to be a decent man but he's definitely not a Lim Kin San type nation builder. Seriously, it is probably not fun to be a PAP person right now: you'd get harrassed all the time. It's not as though they could abandon the strategy of "one strong guy and a few passengers" because for a very long time now, they've not had enough strong candidates to pull this off.