http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYHMiTX5KVf0
Cathay, Singapore Air Get ‘Silver Lining’ From Fuel (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Chan Sue Ling
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Air China Ltd. and Singapore Airlines Ltd. can take some solace from the 43 percent surge in the price of jet fuel this year -- they’ll curb losses from their hedges.
The rise in jet fuel price this year may help Hong Kong’s Cathay and Air China trim paper losses from wrong-way bets on oil. Cathay, which posted its first annual loss in a decade last year, could recoup HK$1.1 billion ($142 million), according to Citigroup Inc., while Air China may write back more than 4 billion yuan ($585 million), estimated Deutsche Bank AG.
The gains come as Asia Pacific airlines struggle to reverse an 11-month slump in passenger traffic that may lead to an industrywide $3.3 billion loss this year for the region. Rewards from fuel hedging could narrow losses at Cathay and help Air China return to profit this year, according to Louis Wong, who manages $50 million at Phillip Securities HK Ltd.
“What has been a negative for airlines may have turned positive with oil prices rising,” said Wong. “Any write-back will give airlines the breathing space they need during these times.”
The drop in the price of jet fuel from a record $181.85 a barrel in July last year to a low of $46.05 in March worked against airlines which locked in fuel-hedging contracts at higher prices than those in the spot market. With prices rising, most carriers will cut the value of their unrealized hedging losses and write back amounts they have already provisioned.
Operating Loss
Singapore Air, Asia’s most profitable airline, made a S$543 million ($373 million) loss on fuel hedging in the quarter ended March, including a S$112 million deficit from early termination of some contracts before maturity.
“The silver lining of rebounding oil prices is that SIA will incur smaller hedging losses and write back some of its previous mark-to-market fair value losses on balance sheet,” Corrine Png, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a June 15 report. A $5 rise in the price of a barrel of jet fuel could cut Singapore Air’s hedging losses by S$50 million, she said.
Cathay doesn’t disclose any numbers, said Carolyn Leung, a spokeswoman for the carrier, adding that high fuel prices “are not good for airlines.” Nicholas Ionides, a spokesman for Singapore Air, declined to comment.
Cathay added 0.8 percent HK$10.24 as of 10:13 a.m. in Hong Kong, while Air China rose 2.2 percent to HK$3.79. Singapore Air gained 0.8 percent to S$12.74.
Premium Travel
Not everyone is optimistic. The gains will be one-time and will do little to offset the plunging demand, said Steven Lim, who manages about $200 million at Daiwa SB Investments in Singapore.
“Right now, I am more concerned about the underlying growth in demand and how soon a recovery will be seen in first or business class travel,” said Lim. “Airlines are still putting in place cost cuts which means the underlying demand is still weak.”
The global recession has hammered premium-class traffic, where carriers such as Cathay and Singapore Air get about 40 percent of their revenue. Worldwide premium-travel revenue fell by about 44 percent from a year earlier in April, according to the International Air Transport Association, or IATA.
Passenger traffic in Asia Pacific sank 14 percent in May, the steepest of any region, IATA said June 25. The industry globally may post losses of $9 billion this year, as the spread of swine flu compounds the effects of the recession. Asia Pacific will lead with a $3.3 billion loss, it said.
Cathay, Air China
To cope with the recession, Cathay, Singapore Air and other carriers have altered networks, cut capacity and parked planes. Singapore Air Chief Executive Officer Chew Choon Seng will take a pay cut of 20 percent starting in July, while Cathay’s CEO Tony Tyler, Chairman Christopher Pratt and Chief Operating Officer John Slosar will all forego their 2008 bonuses.
Cathay in January said unrealized fuel-hedging losses stood at HK$7.6 billion as of Dec. 31. The carrier, with contracts extending to 2011, said in March if Brent crude prices average $75 a barrel, it would face no further cash costs from the hedges and will be able to recoup provisions made this year.
Air China slumped to its first loss since its 2004 listing after losing 7.47 billion yuan on wrong-way bets on fuel prices. Fair value losses on its fuel-hedging contracts may fall by as much as 4.4 billion yuan this year if oil prices rise by 30 percent from the end of last year, it said in February.
The Beijing-based airline hedges the most fuel among Chinese carriers as it operates the largest international network. The country’s airlines can only hedge fuel purchases for overseas flights as domestic prices are state-controlled.
Jet fuel traded at $77.45 a barrel in Singapore trading on June 26.
“This is a relief for many airlines,” said Kelvin Lau, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. in Hong Kong. “This year, most airlines in Asia are expected to recognize profits from fuel hedging because last year many recorded high marked- to-market fair value hedging losses. Some of this could be huge.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Sue Ling in Singapore [email protected]
Cathay, Singapore Air Get ‘Silver Lining’ From Fuel (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Chan Sue Ling
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., Air China Ltd. and Singapore Airlines Ltd. can take some solace from the 43 percent surge in the price of jet fuel this year -- they’ll curb losses from their hedges.
The rise in jet fuel price this year may help Hong Kong’s Cathay and Air China trim paper losses from wrong-way bets on oil. Cathay, which posted its first annual loss in a decade last year, could recoup HK$1.1 billion ($142 million), according to Citigroup Inc., while Air China may write back more than 4 billion yuan ($585 million), estimated Deutsche Bank AG.
The gains come as Asia Pacific airlines struggle to reverse an 11-month slump in passenger traffic that may lead to an industrywide $3.3 billion loss this year for the region. Rewards from fuel hedging could narrow losses at Cathay and help Air China return to profit this year, according to Louis Wong, who manages $50 million at Phillip Securities HK Ltd.
“What has been a negative for airlines may have turned positive with oil prices rising,” said Wong. “Any write-back will give airlines the breathing space they need during these times.”
The drop in the price of jet fuel from a record $181.85 a barrel in July last year to a low of $46.05 in March worked against airlines which locked in fuel-hedging contracts at higher prices than those in the spot market. With prices rising, most carriers will cut the value of their unrealized hedging losses and write back amounts they have already provisioned.
Operating Loss
Singapore Air, Asia’s most profitable airline, made a S$543 million ($373 million) loss on fuel hedging in the quarter ended March, including a S$112 million deficit from early termination of some contracts before maturity.
“The silver lining of rebounding oil prices is that SIA will incur smaller hedging losses and write back some of its previous mark-to-market fair value losses on balance sheet,” Corrine Png, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co., wrote in a June 15 report. A $5 rise in the price of a barrel of jet fuel could cut Singapore Air’s hedging losses by S$50 million, she said.
Cathay doesn’t disclose any numbers, said Carolyn Leung, a spokeswoman for the carrier, adding that high fuel prices “are not good for airlines.” Nicholas Ionides, a spokesman for Singapore Air, declined to comment.
Cathay added 0.8 percent HK$10.24 as of 10:13 a.m. in Hong Kong, while Air China rose 2.2 percent to HK$3.79. Singapore Air gained 0.8 percent to S$12.74.
Premium Travel
Not everyone is optimistic. The gains will be one-time and will do little to offset the plunging demand, said Steven Lim, who manages about $200 million at Daiwa SB Investments in Singapore.
“Right now, I am more concerned about the underlying growth in demand and how soon a recovery will be seen in first or business class travel,” said Lim. “Airlines are still putting in place cost cuts which means the underlying demand is still weak.”
The global recession has hammered premium-class traffic, where carriers such as Cathay and Singapore Air get about 40 percent of their revenue. Worldwide premium-travel revenue fell by about 44 percent from a year earlier in April, according to the International Air Transport Association, or IATA.
Passenger traffic in Asia Pacific sank 14 percent in May, the steepest of any region, IATA said June 25. The industry globally may post losses of $9 billion this year, as the spread of swine flu compounds the effects of the recession. Asia Pacific will lead with a $3.3 billion loss, it said.
Cathay, Air China
To cope with the recession, Cathay, Singapore Air and other carriers have altered networks, cut capacity and parked planes. Singapore Air Chief Executive Officer Chew Choon Seng will take a pay cut of 20 percent starting in July, while Cathay’s CEO Tony Tyler, Chairman Christopher Pratt and Chief Operating Officer John Slosar will all forego their 2008 bonuses.
Cathay in January said unrealized fuel-hedging losses stood at HK$7.6 billion as of Dec. 31. The carrier, with contracts extending to 2011, said in March if Brent crude prices average $75 a barrel, it would face no further cash costs from the hedges and will be able to recoup provisions made this year.
Air China slumped to its first loss since its 2004 listing after losing 7.47 billion yuan on wrong-way bets on fuel prices. Fair value losses on its fuel-hedging contracts may fall by as much as 4.4 billion yuan this year if oil prices rise by 30 percent from the end of last year, it said in February.
The Beijing-based airline hedges the most fuel among Chinese carriers as it operates the largest international network. The country’s airlines can only hedge fuel purchases for overseas flights as domestic prices are state-controlled.
Jet fuel traded at $77.45 a barrel in Singapore trading on June 26.
“This is a relief for many airlines,” said Kelvin Lau, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. in Hong Kong. “This year, most airlines in Asia are expected to recognize profits from fuel hedging because last year many recorded high marked- to-market fair value hedging losses. Some of this could be huge.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Sue Ling in Singapore [email protected]
