Fed AMDL Chiobu say more than 1 hike is needed

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Economics

Fed Officials See More Rate Hikes Possible While Inflation Persists​

• Governor Bowman signals more than one increase ‘likely’ needed
• Further tightening ‘certainly not off the table,’ Collins says

Michelle Bowman, governor of the US Federal ReservePhotographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg
By Craig Torres, Jonnelle Marte, and Laura Curtis

September 22, 2023 at 10:53 PM GMT+8
Updated on
September 23, 2023 at 3:06 AM GMT+8

Two Federal Reserve officials said at least one more interest-rate hike is possible and that borrowing costs may need to stay higher for longer for the US central bank to ease inflation back to its 2% target.
While Boston Fed President Susan Collins said further tightening “is certainly not off the table,” Governor Michelle Bowman signaled that more than one increase will probably be required, cementing her position as one of the Federal Open Market Committee’s most hawkish members.

 

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/...r-more-than-decade-payroll-growth-2023-09-22/

Fed is also "optimising" workforce with pink slip De woh

 

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WASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve system is cutting about 300 people from its payroll this year, a small but rare reduction in headcount across an organization that has grown steadily since 2010 as its reach in the economy and regulatory agenda have expanded.

A Fed spokesperson said the cuts are focused on the staff of the U.S. central bank's 12 regional reserve banks and mainly hit information technology jobs, including some no longer needed because of the spread of cloud-based computer software, and positions connected to the Fed's various systems for processing payments, which are being consolidated.


The spokesperson, who would not speak for direct attribution, said the staff cuts represented a combination of attrition, including retirements, and layoffs.

According to annual reports and financial documents prepared by the Fed each year, the number of staff budgeted for the system, including its regional banks, the Washington-based Board of Governors, and three smaller units, is due to fall by more than 500 positions from 2022 to 2023, from 24,428 to 23,895.


While small compared to the size of the Fed, it is the first time budgeted headcount has fallen since 2010

 

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Since actual employment in 2022 fell below budget - a December Fed memo cites "higher than-budgeted turnover and extended lags in filling open positions," notably in the area of bank supervision, as the reason - the number of positions being eliminated this year is somewhat smaller than the budgeted decline.


The size of any drop in actual employment won't be known until early next year when the Fed closes its books on 2023 and releases its latest annual report.

While the December memo from the Board of Governors division that oversees the regional reserve banks does not explicitly call for staff cuts, it highlights the need to stick with internal budgeting protocols, "with the most important focal points being alignment with long-term strategy and stewardship of public funds."

 

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/rat...d-ensure-timely-inflation-control-2023-09-22/


San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, considered among the more dovish Fed officials, said she still needed more data to determine whether interest rates should rise again, though she called it "prudent" for the Fed to be patient in future rate decisions.

"The thing that would be a problem is if we decided that we wanted to call it done, we'd say we're done, we say definitely one more, when we actually don't know," she said in an event held in coordination with Greater Phoenix Leadership.


Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a voter on rate policy this year, did not talk about his current monetary policy views during an event at the Economic Club of Minnesota, but did say the economy appeared to be motoring along despite the swift Fed rate hikes since March of 2022.

"Consumer spending continues to exceed our expectations," Kashkari said. "I would have thought with 500 basis points or 525 basis points of interest rate increases we would have slammed the brakes on consumer spending, and it has not."


The central bank's decision to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady this week was unanimous.

Bowman said she supported it because of "mixed data" that alongside signs of continued "solid" economic growth also included some decline in inflation and evidence of slowing job growth. Collins and Daly do not currently have a vote on rate policy under a Fed system that rotates votes among the 12 Reserve Bank presidents year by year.


New projections issued at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday showed 12 of 19 Fed officials expect one additional quarter point rate increase this year. The Fed has two scheduled sessions left in 2023, concluding on Nov. 1 and Dec. 13.

More notably, officials projected that while they still expect to begin reducing interest rates next year as inflation falls, the path down will be slower than previously anticipated.

Though opinions are diffuse, policymakers at the median now see only a half percentage point of rate cuts in 2024 versus the full percentage point decline seen in their June quarterly outlook.

Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci

 

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https://www.reuters.com/business/en...ly-concerns-outweigh-demand-fears-2023-09-22/

 

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Oil ends week lower as demand concerns face Russia supply ban​

By Arathy Somasekhar and Nicole Jao
September 23, 20234:42 AM GMT+8Updated 11 hours ago

• Summary
• Companies

• Benchmarks close down for first time in four weeks
• US Fed officials flag further hikes
• US oil rig count falls to lowest since February 2022
• Transneft suspends diesel deliveries to key terminals

HOUSTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady on Friday but closed the week lower on profit-taking and as markets weighed supply concerns stemming from Russia's fuel export ban against demand woes from future rate hikes.
Brent futures settled 3 cents lower at $93.27 a barrel. It fell 0.3% in the week, breaking a three week streak of gains.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures rose 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $90.03 a barrel, as U.S. oil rig counts fell. The benchmark fell 0.03% for the week, the first decline in four weeks.

"Investors are anticipating a slack in demand coming into October as refineries go into maintenance and as a higher interest rate is going to further pressure markets," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, adding that there was also some profit taking.
The contracts have rallied more than 10% in the previous three weeks on concerns about tight supply.
U.S. Federal Reserve officials warned of further rate hikes, even after voting to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady at a meeting this week.

"Inflation is still too high, and I expect it will likely be appropriate for the (Federal Open Market) Committee to raise rates further and hold them at a restrictive level for some time," Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said.
A potential further rise in energy prices, she noted, was a particular risk she was monitoring.